The Characteristics and Evaluation of Future Droughts across China through the CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Materials
2.3. Methods
2.3.1. SPEI
2.3.2. Drought Characterization
2.3.3. Simulation Assessment
2.3.4. Mutation Test for Historical SPEI
2.3.5. Trend Analysis and Significance Test
3. Results
3.1. Assessment of CMIP6 Climate Models
3.2. Assessment of Historical Droughts
3.2.1. Historical Drought Characteristics across China
3.2.2. Historical Drought Trends across China
3.3. Future Drought under the Investigated SSP Scenarios
3.3.1. Future Changes in Drought Characteristics across China
3.3.2. Trend of Future Droughts across China
4. Discussion
4.1. Uncertainty Analysis of the Simulation Capability of CMIP6
4.2. Evolution of Future Drought Characteristics
4.3. Limitation and Future Research
5. Conclusions
- (1)
- In terms of historical periods, northwest IRB has been prone to seasonal drought with long DD and high DI, southwest and northeast China have been prone to seasonal drought of high frequency and low DI, and areas near the midstream and downstream of the YZRB have been prone to seasonal drought of long DD and low DI. The DF, DD, and DI in the northwest IRB and YZRB increased significantly after 1991, and the drought trend in China was more serious in summer and autumn.
- (2)
- In terms of the future period, a lower DF, longer DD, and more serious DI across China correspond to the higher emission scenarios. The PRB, SERB, and northwest IRB are more prone to sustained seasonal drought. DF across China under the SSP5-8.5 scenario will be more frequent than that in other scenarios, especially southwest of the IRB, YRB, and HURB, with extreme DF > 2%. The range of change in SPEI in the higher emission scenarios is significantly greater than that in the lower emission scenarios. Aridity of northern China is more serious than that of southern China, that of the IRB is more serious than that of other regions, that of western plateau regions are more serious than that of eastern plain regions, and the wetting of southwest marginal regions of China is more serious.
- (3)
- Compared with the historical period, under the low and medium emission scenarios, China will suffer more frequent drought events, and the DD and DI will be weakened, whereas China will suffer longer DD and more serious drought events under the medium-high and higher emission scenarios, especially in the IRB, PRB, HURB, SERB, and downstream of the YZRB. For all scenarios, there will be greater DF in the future in the SLRB, SWRB, and midstream and upstream of the YZRB. Although the DF in most of China is prone to decreasing, the frequency of extreme droughts is expected to increase under the high emission scenarios. It is worth noting that compared with historical periods, in most scenarios, HARB and HURB are expected to experience a more serious drought trend in summer, with increases of 2.9–5.7 and 1.1–4.2, respectively.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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No | Model | Institution | Country | Resolution |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | ACCESS-CM2 | CSIRO-BOM | Australia | 1.25° × 1.88° |
2 | ACCESS-ESM1-5 | CSIRO-BOM | Australia | 1.25° × 1.88° |
3 | AWI-CM-1-1-MR | AWI | USA | 0.94° × 0.94° |
4 | BCC-CSM2-MR | BBC | China | 1.10° × 1.10° |
5 | CAMS-CSM1-0 | CAMS | China | 1.10° × 1.10° |
6 | CanESM5 | CCCma | Canada | 2.81° × 2.81° |
7 | CanESM5-CanOE | CCCma | Canada | 2.81° × 2.81° |
8 | CESM2 | NCAR | USA | 1.25° × 0.94° |
9 | CESM2-WACCM | NCAR | USA | 1.25° × 0.94° |
10 | CMCC-CM2-SR5 | CMCC | Italian | 1.25° × 0.94° |
11 | CMCC-ESM2 | CMCC | Italian | 1.25° × 0.94° |
12 | CNRM-ESM2-1 | CNRM-CERFACS | France | 1.40° × 1.40° |
13 | EC-Earth3 | EC-Earth Consortium | Europe | 0.35° × 0.35° |
14 | EC-Earth3-Veg | EC-Earth Consortium | Europe | 0.35° × 0.35° |
15 | FGOALS-f3-L | CAS | China | 1.25° × 1.00° |
16 | GFDL-ESM4 | NOAA-GFDL | USA | 1.25° × 1.00° |
17 | IITM-ESM | IITM | Italian | 1.88° × 1.90° |
18 | INM-CM4-8 | INM | Russia | 2.00° × 1.50° |
19 | INM-CM5-0 | INM | Russia | 2.00° × 1.50° |
20 | IPSL-CM6A-LR | IPSL | France | 2.50° × 1.27° |
21 | MIROC6 | JAMSTEC | Japan | 1.40° × 1.40° |
22 | MIROC-ES2L | JAMSTEC | Japan | 2.81° × 2.81° |
23 | MPI-ESM1-2-HR | MPI-M | Germany | 0.94° × 0.94° |
24 | MRI-ESM2-0 | MRI | Japan | 1.13° × 1.13° |
25 | NorESM2-MM | NCC | Norway | 2.50° × 1.89° |
26 | TaiESM1 | CCliCS | China | 1.25° × 0.94° |
27 | UKESM1-0-LL | MOHC | Britain | 1.88° × 1.25° |
Categories | SPEI Values |
---|---|
Normal | −0.5 ≤ SPEI |
Slight dry | −1.00 ≤ SPEI < −0.50 |
Moderate dry | −1.50 ≤ SPEI < −1.00 |
Severe dry | −2.00 ≤ SPEI < −1.50 |
Extreme dry | SPEI < −2.00 |
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Ma, Z.; Sun, P.; Zhang, Q.; Zou, Y.; Lv, Y.; Li, H.; Chen, D. The Characteristics and Evaluation of Future Droughts across China through the CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble. Remote Sens. 2022, 14, 1097. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14051097
Ma Z, Sun P, Zhang Q, Zou Y, Lv Y, Li H, Chen D. The Characteristics and Evaluation of Future Droughts across China through the CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble. Remote Sensing. 2022; 14(5):1097. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14051097
Chicago/Turabian StyleMa, Zice, Peng Sun, Qiang Zhang, Yifan Zou, Yinfeng Lv, Hu Li, and Donghua Chen. 2022. "The Characteristics and Evaluation of Future Droughts across China through the CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble" Remote Sensing 14, no. 5: 1097. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14051097