Predicting the Potential Distribution of Paeonia veitchii (Paeoniaceae) in China by Incorporating Climate Change into a Maxent Model
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Distribution Data for P. veitchii
2.2. Environmental Variables
2.3. Model Simulation
2.4. Shift of the Distribution Center of Suitable Habitat
3. Results
3.1. Prediction of Suitable Habitat Areas for P. veitchii and Model Accuracy
3.2. Key Environmental Factors Influencing the Habitat Distribution
3.3. Future Changes in Suitable Habitat Area
3.4. Shift of the Distribution Center of Suitable Habitat
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Environmental Variables | Resolution | Unit | Contribution (%) |
---|---|---|---|
Elevation (ELE) | 30″ × 30″ | m | 23.9 |
Air temperature seasonality (BIO4) | 30″ × 30″ | ×100 | 18.7 |
Annual precipitation (BIO12) | 30″ × 30″ | mm | 18.0 |
Precipitation seasonality (BIO15) | 30″ × 30″ | mm | 15.6 |
Annual mean temperature (BIO1) | 30″ × 30″ | °C × 10 | 7.5 |
Mean ultraviolet-B of lightest month (UVB3) | 30″ × 30″ | J m−2·day−1 | 3.2 |
Growing degree days (GDD) | 0.5° × 0.5° | day | 3.1 |
Mean UV-B of lowest month (UVB4) | 30″ × 30″ | J m−2·day−1 | 3.0 |
Wet-day frequency (WET) | 0.5° × 0.5° | 2.9 | |
Soil organic carbon (SC) | 0.5° × 0.5° | 1.1 | |
Annual mean UV-B (UVB1) | 30″ × 30″ | J m−2·day−1 | 0.9 |
UV-B seasonality (UVB2) | 30″ × 30″ | J m−2·day−1 | 0.9 |
Vapor pressure (VAP) | 0.5° × 0.5° | hPa | 0.5 |
Soil pH (SpH) | 0.5° × 0.5° | 0.2 | |
Isothermality (BIO3) | 30″ × 30″ | ×100 | 0.2 |
Ground-frost frequency (FRS) | 30″ × 30″ | 0.2 | |
Mean diurnal air temperature range (BIO2) | 30″ × 30″ | °C × 10 | 0.2 |
Area (km2) | Increased | Decreased | Unchanged |
---|---|---|---|
RCP2.6-2050 | 513,449.3 | 94,425.1 | 984,215.1 |
RCP2.6-2070 | 321,434.4 | 159,157.0 | 919,481.3 |
RCP8.5-2050 | 355,565.9 | 147,916.1 | 930,724.1 |
RCP8.5-2070 | 364,607.0 | 144,645.6 | 933,993.6 |
Portion of Area (%) | Not Suitable | Low Suitability | Moderate Suitability | High Suitability |
---|---|---|---|---|
Current | 89.23 | 4.49 | 4.34 | 1.94 |
RCP2.6-2050 | 85.05 | 7.99 | 4.70 | 2.25 |
RCP2.6-2070 | 87.66 | 5.03 | 5.09 | 2.22 |
RCP8.5-2050 | 87.19 | 5.68 | 4.91 | 2.22 |
RCP8.5-2070 | 87.05 | 5.70 | 4.93 | 2.32 |
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Zhang, K.; Zhang, Y.; Tao, J. Predicting the Potential Distribution of Paeonia veitchii (Paeoniaceae) in China by Incorporating Climate Change into a Maxent Model. Forests 2019, 10, 190. https://doi.org/10.3390/f10020190
Zhang K, Zhang Y, Tao J. Predicting the Potential Distribution of Paeonia veitchii (Paeoniaceae) in China by Incorporating Climate Change into a Maxent Model. Forests. 2019; 10(2):190. https://doi.org/10.3390/f10020190
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhang, Keliang, Yin Zhang, and Jun Tao. 2019. "Predicting the Potential Distribution of Paeonia veitchii (Paeoniaceae) in China by Incorporating Climate Change into a Maxent Model" Forests 10, no. 2: 190. https://doi.org/10.3390/f10020190