4.3. Optimized Scheduling Results
The number of populations in the DBO algorithm was set to 200, the number of iterations was set to 200, and both the model and algorithm programs were written in the Matlab platform. The model running environment is set as follows: the CPU is Intel(R)Core(TM)
[email protected]; the memory is 16G; the operating system is Windows 10; the software environment is Matlab version 2022a; and the Pareto solution set for solving the optimization model is shown in
Figure 4.
As can be seen from
Figure 4, there is an obvious competitive relationship between the grid new energy consumption rate and network loss. For the flexibility resource responsiveness index, the flexibility resource response rate is pumped storage > hydropower > thermal power, and the response rate is taken as 3, 2, and 1. K-mean clustering is carried out in the iterative process, and the clustering is completed by setting K = 5. The clusters obtained from clustering are rank ordered from good to bad, i.e., rank one corresponds to good, and rank five corresponds to bad. The ensemble of rank one and rank two is set as excellent in the fuzzy evaluation subset, rank three is set as good in the fuzzy evaluation subset, rank four is set as medium in the fuzzy evaluation subset, and rank five is set as qualified in the fuzzy evaluation subset. The dynamically updated fuzzy evaluation subsets for each scenario are shown in
Table 5.
According to the fuzzy evaluation subset of the solutions in the Pareto solution set, to calculate the degree of affiliation, combined with the weight to evaluate the grid security level. According to the grid security level, the solution set is reclassified, and the entropy weight method is used to select the compromise solution; the Pareto solution set under each level is shown in
Figure 5, and the range of new energy consumption and the range of network loss of each grid security level under different operation modes are shown in
Table 6.
From
Figure 5 and
Table 6, it can be seen that under the operation mode of one pump and one generator, when the grid security level is in the optimal range, compared with the other levels, the guaranteed rate of new energy consumption is the smallest at 94.76%. When the grid security level is good, the maximum guaranteed rate of new energy consumption is 95.56%. If the decision maker favors the new energy consumption rate, the new energy consumption rate can reach 97.55%, and the grid security level is medium; if the decision maker favors the grid loss, the minimum loss is 53.35 MW, and the grid security level is qualified. When the decision maker favors the grid security level, the new energy consumption decreases by 2.79% at most, and the grid loss increases by 3.37% at most.
Under the operation mode of one pump and two generators, when the grid security level is in the optimal range, compared with the other levels, the guaranteed rate of new energy consumption is at least 95.21%. When the grid security level is good, the maximum guaranteed rate of new energy consumption is 95.93%. If the decision maker prefers the new energy consumption rate, the new energy consumption rate can reach 98.51%, and then the grid security grade is qualified; if the decision maker prefers the grid loss, the minimum loss is 54.25 MW, and then the grid security grade is excellent. When the decision maker favors the grid security level, the new energy consumption decreases by 3.3% at most, and the grid loss increases by 1.9% at most.
Under the operation mode of two pumping and one generating, when the grid security level is within the good range, compared with the other levels, the guaranteed rate of new energy consumption is 92.24% at the minimum. When the grid security level is qualified, the maximum guaranteed rate of new energy consumption is 93.02%. If the decision maker prefers the new energy consumption rate, the new energy consumption rate can reach 97.22%, and the grid security grade is good; if the decision maker prefers the network loss, the minimum network loss is 54.67 MW, and the grid security grade is good. When the decision maker favors the grid security level, the new energy consumption decreases by up to 4.64%, and the grid loss increases by up to 2.74%.
Under the operation mode of two pumps and two generators, when the grid security level is within the qualified range, compared with the other levels, the guaranteed rate of new energy consumption is at least 95.27%. When the grid security level is excellent, the maximum guaranteed rate of new energy consumption is 96.24%. If the decision maker favors the new energy consumption rate, the new energy consumption rate can reach 98.29%, and then the grid security level is qualified; if the decision maker favors the grid loss, the minimum loss is 55.18 MW, and then the grid security level is qualified. When the decision maker favors the grid security level, the new energy consumption decreases by 2.05% at most, and the grid loss increases by 2.81% at most.
Table 7 shows the optimization results of the compromise solution for different operation modes of the pumped-storage power plant, and provides an analysis of the impact of the change of different operation modes in the pumped-storage power plant through a comparison of different objectives.
From the perspective of new energy consumption, comparing the index of the new energy consumption rate, the operation mode of “pumping once and generating twice” for the pumped-storage power station is better than “pumping once and generating once”, better than “pumping twice and generating twice”, and better than “pumping twice and generating once”. From the economic point of view, comparing the system network loss index, the operation mode of “pumping once and generating twice” for the pumped-storage power station is superior to “pumping once and generating once”, “pumping twice and generating twice”, and “pumping twice and generating once”. Through the above comparison, it can be seen that the operation mode of one pump and two generators of the pumped-storage power station is optimal because the typical load curve shows a double hump shape, and there are two peak hours, the afternoon peak and the evening peak. Arranging two times for power generation in a pumped-storage power station can reduce the pressure of the power supply in the load peak, make the grid current reasonable, reduce the network loss, and make the line capacity abundant. Arranging pumping once in the load valley is conducive to the consumption of wind power at night, which improves the rate of new energy consumption.
The results of the optimization of the power output of the grid for each time period and for each scenario are shown in
Figure 6.
When the pumped-storage power station is set in the operation state of “one pumping and one generating”, it is in the pumping condition during the low load period from 1 to 6 h and in the generating condition during the evening peak from 17 to 22 h, during which the load is larger and the photovoltaic power generation capacity is weaker, and the reasonable arrangement of the pumped-storage power station at this time is conducive to reducing the pressure of the power supply. When the pumped-storage power station is set in the “one pumping and two generating” operation state, it is in the pumping condition during the hours 1–6 in the load valley and is in the generating condition during the hours 12–14 in the afternoon peak and 19–22 in the evening peak; compared with “one pumping and one generating”, this kind of operation can take care of two load peak hours at the same time, which is beneficial to the power supply pressure. Compared with “one pumping and one generating”, this operation can simultaneously take care of two load peak hours, which is conducive to the reasonable distribution of the grid current and reduction in network loss. When the pumped-storage power station sets the “two pumping and one generating” operation state, it is in the pumping operation at 1–4 and 7–9 h and is in the generating operation at 17–22 h; this operation mode has a big difference in the load curve, so it divides the load valley time into two parts to meet the conditions; the primary power generation does not take into account the afternoon peak time, so this operation mode is not ideal. However, due to the water balance constraint, the pumped-storage power generation capacity is strong in the evening peak hours compared with the other operation methods. When the pumped-storage power station is set to the “two pumping and two generating” operation, it is in pumping condition from 1 to 4 and 7 to 9 h and is in the generating condition in the afternoon peak from 12 to 14 h and the evening peak from 19 to 22 h, which can better deal with the peak load hours, and the two pumping are slightly redundant.
In order to verify the validity of the proposed model, the model with the objectives of maximum new energy consumption and minimum grid loss of the system is used as a comparison model, which is called the “traditional model”. The operation mode of the pumped-storage plant is selected as “pumping once and generating once”, and the optimization results of the two models are shown in
Table 8 to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model through the comparison of different objectives.
In the dry water period, compared with the traditional model, the new energy consumption rate of the proposed model is increased by 0.13%, the grid loss is increased by 0.16%, and the security level is improved. The above analysis shows that although the grid loss in the proposed model is large, the optimization target value of the proposed model incorporates the grid security level, which improves the ability of the optimization results to cope with accidents and makes the grid operation state more secure. In the flood season, compared with the traditional model, the new energy consumption rate of the proposed model is reduced by 2.1%, the grid loss is reduced by 1.3%, and the grid security level is improved. The above analysis shows that the proposed model has a slight loss in the new energy consumption rate and grid loss indicators compared with the traditional model, but the ability to cope with accidents is greatly improved. From the perspective of different periods, during the flood season, the upstream water increases, and the proportion of hydropower generation increases, resulting in a decrease in the new energy consumption rate.
Table 9 shows the results of the calculation time of the two models in different periods. The solution time of the proposed model is slightly larger than that of the traditional model, but both models can complete the solution within a few minutes, which meets the time-sensitive requirements of power generation programming in actual power dispatch.
4.4. Sensitivity Analysis of the Increase in the Installed Capacity of New Energy Sources
A wind and light new energy power station is in the stage of vigorous development, and the future installed new energy capacity is expected to account for 40% of the total installed capacity of the system; at present, the improvement in the term IEEE 30-bus grid in the installed new energy capacity accounted for 24% only. Under the prospect of growing the installed new energy capacity, the large-scale integration of new energy into the grid will inevitably change the operation mode of the existing power structure. The growth rate of the installed new energy capacity is analyzed in different typical periods, taking into account the different operation modes of pumped-storage power plants.
Figure 7 analyzes the sensitivity of the grid’s new energy consumption rate to the growth rate of the installed wind and PV capacities under the existing channel capacity.
As the installed capacities of wind power and photovoltaic (PV) power increase, the grid’s new energy consumption stays the same at first, and then gradually decreases. This is because at the beginning, the installed wind power and photovoltaic capacities accounted for a small proportion of the installed capacity of the grid; the system flexibility resources are sufficient, so the new energy sources can be fully absorbed. When the proportion of the installed capacity of new energy reaches 17%, under the operation mode of pumped-storage power plant with two pumps and one generator, the rate of new energy consumption starts to decrease, considering the system network loss and security level. Upon adjusting the operation mode of the pumped-storage power station, when the proportion of the installed new energy capacity reaches 20%, the new energy consumption can still be fully absorbed.
Figure 8 analyzes the sensitivity of grid network losses to the growth rate of the installed wind and PV capacities given the available channel capacity.
With the increase in the installed capacities of wind power and photovoltaic power, the network loss of the power grid first decreases, and then gradually rises. This is because there is a certain complementary characteristic between new energy and load, which is conducive to the coordination of the power supply and conventional power load at the node, and it reduces the network loss. When the proportion of the installed new energy capacity reaches 22–24%, the system network structure and load remain unchanged, and the network loss gradually increases. When the proportion of the installed new energy capacity reaches 35%, the network loss increases slowly due to the sacrifice of the new energy consumption rate index.