Can Topographic Variation in Climate Buffer against Climate Change-Induced Population Declines in Northern Forest Birds?
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Material and Methods
2.1. Study Areas
2.2. Bird Censuses
2.3. Climate Data
2.4. Statistical Analyses
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Species | Density | Ranks (pos./neg./tied) | z | P | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1981–1999 | 2000–2017 | ||||
Rough-legged buzzard Buteo lagopus | 0.01 ± 0.01 | 0.01 ± 0.00 | 1/6/122 | −1.859 | 0.063 |
Golden eagle Aquila chrysaetos | 0.00 ± 0.00 | 0.00 ± 0.00 | 10/6/113 | 1.189 | 0.235 |
Merlin Falco columbarius | 0.04 ± 0.02 | 0.04 ± 0.02 | 10/14/105 | −0.943 | 0.346 |
Northern hawk owl Surnia ulula | 0.04 ± 0.02 | 0.28 ± 0.22 | 14/8/107 | 1.185 | 0.236 |
Great grey owl Strix nebulosa | 0.01 ± 0.01 | 0.01 ± 0.01 | 2/6/121 | −1.120 | 0.263 |
Three-toed woodpecker Picoides tridactylus | 0.31 ± 0.05 | 0.65 ± 0.09 | 59/21/49 | 4.240 | <0.001 |
Bohemian waxwing Bombycilla garrulus | 0.21 ± 0.05 | 0.79 ± 0.09 | 82/7/40 | 6.880 | <0.001 |
Red-flanked bluetail Tarsiger cyanurus | 0.01 ± 0.00 | 0.14 ± 0.04 | 28/6/95 | 4.129 | <0.001 |
Arctic warbler Phylloscopus borealis | 0.01 ± 0.00 | 0.00 ± 0.00 | 3/7/119 | −1.988 | 0.047 |
Siberian tit Poecile cinctus | 0.14 ± 0.04 | 0.07 ± 0.03 | 8/17/104 | −1.682 | 0.093 |
Great grey shrike Lanius excubitor | 0.21 ± 0.09 | 0.07 ± 0.02 | 17/18/94 | −0.541 | 0.589 |
Siberian jay Perisoreus infaustus | 0.47 ± 0.07 | 0.43 ± 0.07 | 29/36/64 | −0.709 | 0.478 |
Brambling Fringilla montifringilla | 16.73 ± 0.97 | 9.95 ± 0.83 | 23/106/0 | −7.229 | <0.001 |
Common redpoll Carduelis flammea | 3.03 ± 0.33 | 1.42 ± 0.23 | 19/100/10 | −7.231 | <0.001 |
Two-barred crossbill Loxia leucoptera | 0.56 ± 0.14 | 0.03 ± 0.01 | 10/46/73 | −4.968 | <0.001 |
Pine grosbeak Pinicola enucleator | 0.10 ± 0.04 | 0.06 ± 0.02 | 7/9/113 | −0.310 | 0.756 |
Rustic bunting Emberiza rustica | 3.43 ± 0.30 | 1.84 ± 0.28 | 32/82/15 | −5.365 | <0.001 |
Combined | 25.29 ± 1.39 | 15.76 ± 1.23 | 20/109/0 | −7.154 | <0.001 |
Term | Estimate | S.E. | z | P |
---|---|---|---|---|
Intercept | 0.221 | 0.532 | 0.416 | 0.677 |
−0.579 | 0.041 | −14.232 | <0.001 | |
5.186 | 2.554 | 2.030 | 0.042 | |
Forest proportion | 1.485 | 0.201 | 7.382 | <0.001 |
Forest proportion × | −6.816 | 2.790 | −2.443 | 0.0146 |
PA Size | 0.013 | 0.030 | 0.417 | 0.677 |
Time | 0.195 | 0.577 | 0.337 | 0.736 |
Term | Estimate | S.E. | z | P |
---|---|---|---|---|
Intercept | −1.057 | 0.348 | −3.041 | 0.002 |
0.191 | 0.301 | 0.634 | 0.526 | |
−3.426 | 0.465 | −7.375 | <0.001 | |
PA size | 0.078 | 0.035 | 2.213 | 0.027 |
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Virkkala, R.; Aalto, J.; Heikkinen, R.K.; Rajasärkkä, A.; Kuusela, S.; Leikola, N.; Luoto, M. Can Topographic Variation in Climate Buffer against Climate Change-Induced Population Declines in Northern Forest Birds? Diversity 2020, 12, 56. https://doi.org/10.3390/d12020056
Virkkala R, Aalto J, Heikkinen RK, Rajasärkkä A, Kuusela S, Leikola N, Luoto M. Can Topographic Variation in Climate Buffer against Climate Change-Induced Population Declines in Northern Forest Birds? Diversity. 2020; 12(2):56. https://doi.org/10.3390/d12020056
Chicago/Turabian StyleVirkkala, Raimo, Juha Aalto, Risto K. Heikkinen, Ari Rajasärkkä, Saija Kuusela, Niko Leikola, and Miska Luoto. 2020. "Can Topographic Variation in Climate Buffer against Climate Change-Induced Population Declines in Northern Forest Birds?" Diversity 12, no. 2: 56. https://doi.org/10.3390/d12020056