Mikael Arne Fogemann

According to URA's third-quarter flash estimates, price and sales momentum in the private residential market slowed, with overall private housing prices declining in Q3 2024. The flash estimate of the private residential property price index decreased by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter, while sales transaction volume fell by approximately 11% during the same period. According to the flash estimates, non-landed property prices in the Core Central Region saw a quarter-on-quarter decline of 1.5%. From our proprietary data at DataSense by PropertyGuru (See Figure Below), we observed that some downward pressure was building on the demand since May 2024. The Demand Index—a measure based on the weighted number of visitors to property listings—has started to ease since May 2024, indicating a drop in interest in non-landed properties in the CCR. Do we expect this to mark the start of a market correction? Based on the indicators on DataSense by PropertyGuru, we believe that the decline in prices in the CCR signals that the market is entering a stable equilibrium rather than entering a downward trajectory. The number of listings in the CCR in August 2024 is lower than a year ago and has remained steady (See Figure 1). In other words, the lack of supply contributes to lower transaction volumes and pushes demand away due to the lack of new offerings. This supply-side hypothesis is further validated by the flash estimates for non-landed property prices in the Rest of Central Region (RCR) and Outside Central Region (OCR), both of which indicate an equilibrium level according to the flash estimates. The higher activity in these regions enables price discovery to be observed. In contrast, the price discovery process for the CCR and landed market is slower, and analysing how people interact with listings may provide a more comprehensive view amid a volatile macro-economic environment.   PropertyGuru Group #PriceDiscovery #LeadingIndicator #CreateWhatNext

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The relative attractiveness of European real estate continued to improve over the past six months. Not only have real estate values moderated further – reaching what we expect to be their low point – when compared to rallying equity markets and stabilising corporate bond yields, the pricing and the outlook for European real estate looks compelling. In our view, comparing core real estate IRRs vs. 10-year BBB-rated corporate bond yields provides a good gauge of the overall attractiveness. Today's spread of more than 300bps appears attractive relative to the long-term average. See below the link to our mid-year strategic outlook.

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CBRE Finland Office Market Snapshot Q2 2024 is fresh off the press! Another subdued investment quarter in the books, while office investors and owners were still digesting the final stretch of the repricing. The most dramatic shift in prime yields has now stabilized, and through this +200bps peak-to-trough shift in prime Helsinki office yield and the favorable outlook for rate cuts in the next 6 months, we expect the activity to gradually return to the office sector. We are already seeing this trend in I&L and residential sectors. Despite the uncertain economic backdrop, the office occupier market is surprisingly active and the occupiers are looking into upgrading into better and more fit-for-purpose office spaces in central office locations. As a testament to this flight-to-quality trend, the prime rent in the Helsinki CBD has now increased over 15% from the previous year. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/dD6wxv6v #cbreresearch #cbrenordicsresearch #offices

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With inflation nearing target and interest rates trending down, we turn our focus back to real estate fundamentals. Predicting future interest rates, and ultimately property yields is difficult, especially given the wide range of factors influencing interest rates – and the elusive “neutral rate”. Conversely, rent growth is a relatively easier component to forecast. Vacancy rates and supply outlook are big drivers of near-term and long-term rent growth. Hence, we developed a framework to assess the immediate and long-term supply outlook by market. See below a link to our latest research report.

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🚨 ECB Rate Cut: A Step in the Right Direction! 🚨 Today, the ECB made an important move by cutting interest rates—a step long anticipated and crucial for the real estate sector. It's not a huge change yet, as these upcoming cuts are already priced in but it's a positive step. Key Points: 🔹 Still Tough Conditions: Rates are still high, so it won't boost the economy or real estate markets right away. 🔹 Hope for the Future: This cut could lead to more cuts and better real estate returns—positive news for investors. 🔹 Slow Changes: Some future cuts are already priced in but lower borrowing costs will gradually make deals easier and increase market activity and liquidity. 🔹 Varied Impact: Expect various markets to react at different speeds, with bigger more mature markets adjusting faster. It will be a slow journey, but this is a step in the right direction!📉🏡 #ECB #InterestRates #RealEstate #Investment #EconomicOutlook

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🔍 My new paper: when house prices increase, people don’t buy smaller houses - they borrow more! Mortgages (and loan-to-income ratios) of buyers have increased even faster than house prices - see the attached figure 🏠💸 That’s extremely fast! With Gabriel Ahlfeldt and Jagdish Tripathy we’ve just published a working paper (link in comments) that explains this. Key Findings: • Housing-Consumption Channel: As house prices rise, people borrow more to maintain their lifestyle, showing that housing and non-housing consumption are not easily substitutable. • Elasticity of Mortgage Borrowing: A 1% increase in house prices results in a 0.82% increase in mortgage borrowing. • Impact Over Time: Without this borrowing trend, mortgage growth would have been 50% lower and house price increases 31% less since the 1990s. Implications: • Macroeconomic Stability: The surge in borrowing amplifies the effects of economic cycles, potentially leading to greater economic volatility. • Financial Stability: Higher loan-to-income ratios increase the risk of defaults, posing a threat to the stability of the financial system. • Policy Considerations: Policymakers need to consider measures to mitigate the risks associated with high household debt levels created by increasing house prices. Please share the link/paper/post and let me know if you have comments or suggestions - we’d be very grateful for any feedback! #HousingMarket #MortgageTrends #FinancialStability #Macroeconomy #PolicyMaking #Economics

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Europe 🇪🇺 quarterly report below ⬇️ Economic outlook 🔎 and real estate perspectives 🟰 #Stabilization Merci Benoit Lefebvre pour le partage 🙌

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KEY TAKEAWAY: Jeudan represents a way to profit from the Medicon Valley ecosystem without having to depend on a particular company from that ecosystem. While office properties typically carry greater risk than residential because their long term role is less certain, Jeudan buildings are in the "24 hour" downtown area of Copenhagen. As such, they are more likely to remain relevant - i.e. more resilient to changing space use patterns. ____________________________________________ Medicon Valley is home to 1,500 companies, including the flagship Novo Nordisk which we discussed in the last post. It has 40,000 life sciences employees including 15,000 researchers. It has six universities including University of Copenhagen and Lund University. It includes Greater Copenhagen and part of Southern Sweden. It houses companies in: - Biotech (350 companies), often focusing on antibody based cancer therapies, e.g. Genmab and Symphogen - Medtech (100), e.g. Atos (post-laryngectomy devices), Coloplast (ostomy products), Radiometer (critical care testing devices) - Life sciences startups, e.g. Clinical Bionomics, a contract research firm specializing in bionomic analysis. For example they offer services in decoding genetic and metabolic fingerprints of microbial inhabitants. - Pharmaceutical R&D centers, e.g. Lundbeck, Ferring, Johnson & Johnson, etc. Copenhagen was ranked the 2nd most livable city in the world by the Economist Intelligence Unit, making it less prone to exodus. It is headquarters to Maersk, Danske Bank, Ørsted and others. Even though Copenhagen began encouraging remote work in 2005, Jeudan has reduced its vacancy rate from 10% to 5% since then. Copenhagen's office vacancy is only 2%. There are green limits on new construction. Most Jeudan buildings are downtown, which is home not only to office, cultural and retail buildings, but 65,000 upscale residents. Jeudan specializes in corporate headquarters, e.g. Danish Crown, Carlsberg, Lego, etc. All this means Jeudan properties can benefit from Medicon Valley, while mitigating downside risk often associated with mass market office buildings. Jeudan has grown revenues 8% in recent years and has averaged an additional 8% gains on property sales. One risk factor is its 150% debt to market cap ratio. Jeudan A/S Next up Australian radiology.

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Are Investors Building More Balanced Portfolios in EMEA? 🌍 In 2019, office investments made up 5️⃣6️⃣% of total EMEA investment volume. By H1 2024, this share significantly decreased to below 32%, highlighting the growing interest in other sectors like logistics, residential, and mixed-use projects. As investors diversify, the office sector is adapting to new market realities. What’s driving this shift, and how can investors position themselves strategically? Let’s dive deeper into this trend in the upcoming posts! #RealEstate #Trends #InvestmentInsights #OfficeMarket #CushmanWakefield

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A great addition to our private real estate "index family": the first and only Private Real Estate Debt Fund Index in Europe! Access the results of the MSCI Europe Quarterly Private Real estate Debt Fund Index. http://ms.spr.ly/6044Yac9I #RealEstate #DebtFund #Investment #Innovation #Benchmarking #Europe #MarketTrends

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Speed wins in bridge lending. 🏃‍♂️💨 At Gelt Financial, we close loans in 4-10 days. Why? Because time is money in real estate. Our secret: • Direct decision-making • Streamlined processes • Decades of experience Result? More deals closed, happier clients. Real estate waits for no one. Are you moving fast enough? #BridgeLending #RealEstateFinance

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𝐇𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐦𝐞𝐭 𝐦𝐲 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐧𝐞𝐫, Max Frame, 𝐲𝐞𝐭? Here are just a few reasons why Max stands out: 🏢 𝐒𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥𝐢𝐳𝐞𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐚𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐛𝐮𝐢𝐥𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐄𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧 𝐖𝐚𝐬𝐡𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐭𝐨𝐧 – Max’s in-depth market knowledge helps investors find the best opportunities, from high cash flow properties to value-add projects. 💸 𝐒𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐚𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 $𝟏𝟎𝟎𝐌 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐬𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐯𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐦𝐞 𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐣𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐭𝐞𝐚𝐦 𝐢𝐧 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟏 – This impressive track record reflects Max’s ability to close deals that maximize returns for his clients. Max's commitment to delivering outstanding results makes him an invaluable asset to our team and clients. Watch below and learn more about Max and the Simon | Anderson Multifamily Team here: https://lnkd.in/gDZsMMAs https://lnkd.in/gRcRUpb3  #maxframe #simonandersonteam #kiddermathews #multifamilyhousing #apartmentmarkettrends #pugetsoundmultifamily #seattleapartments #multifamilyinvesting #apartmentinvestments #realestateinvesting #washingtonrealestate #pugetsoundrealestate #pnwrealestate

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Colliers EMEA Capital Markets Snapshot | Q1 2024: Europe’s environment for commercial real estate investment saw little change in the first quarter of 2024, with volumes remaining muted as investors pared back expectations that aggressive interest rate cuts would prompt a rapid recovery. However, the buoyant activity in some sectors pointed to continued demand that is set to pick up as more product comes to market and the rate outlook stabilises. Key Highlights - Demand for industrial & logistics and residential assets continues to outstrip supply in key markets such as the UK and France due to a shortage of new stock, with investors focusing on smaller-ticket (sub-€100 million) deals. - Similar appetite surrounds smaller, value-add office opportunities, which investors see as ripe for ‘brown to green’ or office to residential conversion strategies. It is also important to note that big-ticket office deals have by no means halted completely, with Norway seeing in March its largest single-property transaction since 2020 — the €222 million sale of the award-winning Stortorvet 7 building in Oslo, brokered by Colliers. We expect more large core deals to test the market as the year goes on. - The hospitality sector has emerged as the region’s clear outperformer, as tourist arrivals, occupancy rates and profits in popular leisure destinations like Spain and Italy as well as business capitals like Paris and London meet or exceed pre-pandemic levels. - While the UK remains the world’s largest magnet for international capital — a positive sign for Europe as a whole — we expect the markets with substantial and active sources of domestic capital, such as Spain and Denmark, to fare better than regional peers. - The other clear trend defining the market is the competition for capital. This is driving more developers, investment managers and fund managers to explore new capital sources and structures such as joint ventures, contributing to what might be the most complex capital market situation in a decade. - While this competition may create difficulties, it will also generate opportunities as more groups seek refinancing and pressured, though not distressed, asset sales emerge. This will help dispel some of the uncertainty around pricing and encourage participants with pent-up capital, such as private equity funds, to pursue significant deals. Please find our report on the link below https://lnkd.in/dk8uvEyX #CollierEMEA #realestate #investors #EMEA #capitalmarkets #AcceleratingYourSuccess

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At limehome, we’re expanding rapidly and robust all over Europe as an asset-light operator of serviced apartments, providing a modern alternative that is often outperforming traditional hotels. Despite the current challenges in the real estate market, our growth remains strong. With ongoing structural shifts, we’re seeing exciting opportunities to convert vacant office and retail spaces into serviced apartments. For the upcoming EXPO REAL (Messe München) I summarized the most discussed topics from my conversations over the last months and I am happy to pick them up with you in Munich: TURNING STRANDED SPACES INTO OPPORTUNITIES  How can limehome help transform unused office and retail spaces into something valuable. SERVICED APARTMENTS, CO LIVING & STUDENT LIVING What are the differences and why do serviced apartments deliver stronger financial performance? HOW TO PRICE SERVICED APARTMENTS With exit data still developing in this sector, there is always the question: Should they be priced like hotels, regular residential assets, or is a different approach needed? OPERATIONAL EXPERTISE IS KEY For owners today it is crucial to understand the details of operations. How exactly can tech work more efficiently and how does it help to boost returns and reduce risk? If you’re at Expo Real, let’s connect and see how we can work together. You can directly schedule a meeting here: https://lnkd.in/d9gWSDkp Or just stop by A1 340, our whole expansion team is going to be there. Looking forward to catching up! #ExpoReal #ServicedApartments #RealEstateTrends #AssetLight #Expansion #Hotels #Hospitality

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Sustainable Growth: Our Blueprint for Long-Term Success What sets successful real estate investors apart from the rest? It’s not just about having deep pockets or fancy degrees. It’s about foresight and a commitment to sustainability. At Fincapital Investments, we believe that sustainable growth is not just a buzzword – it’s our blueprint for long-term success. Our approach to property development goes beyond mere aesthetics and immediate returns. We focus on creating eco-friendly, energy-efficient buildings that stand the test of time. By incorporating sustainable practices, we don’t just add value to our properties, we enhance the living experience for our tenants. Think of it as investing in a better future, where eco-friendly upgrades lead to higher tenant retention and, ultimately, better returns for our investors. For instance, one of our recent projects involved retrofitting an older building with energy-efficient windows and solar panels. Not only did this reduce operating costs, but it also made the property more attractive to environmentally conscious renters. The result? Increased occupancy rates and higher rental income. Sustainable growth is smart business. By making thoughtful, eco-friendly improvements, we ensure our properties remain competitive and desirable, even as market conditions change. Curious about how sustainable real estate investments can work for you?  Let’s chat. Book a call with me, and let’s explore how you can be part of a forward-thinking, profitable investment strategy.

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The House Price Supercycle - and the rise of YIMBYism Summary of a good Economist Article covering the history and future of house pricing. Why property prices could keep rising for years After the financial crisis of 2007-09, global house prices fell by 6% in real terms. But, before long, they picked up again, and sailed past their pre-crisis peak. And then from 2021 onwards, as central banks raised interest rates to defeat inflation, fears mounted of a house-price horror show. In fact, real prices fell by just 5.6%—and now they are rising fast again. Housing seems to have a remarkable ability to keep appreciating, whatever the weather. Until about 1950, the rich world’s house prices were steady in real terms. Builders put up houses where people wanted them, preventing prices from rising much in response to demand. The roll-out of transport infrastructure in the 19th and early 20th centuries also helped temper prices. By allowing people to live farther from their place of work. Events following WW2 turned all these processes on their head, creating the housing supercycle that we live with today. Governments got into the business of subsidising mortgages. People in their 20s and 30s were having lots of children, boosting the need for housing. Urbanisation raised demand for shelter in places that were already crowded. The second half of the 20th century brought a slew of land-use regulations and anti-development philosophies. It became harder to build. Across the rich world, construction of houses expressed as a share of the population peaked in the 1960s, then fell steadily to about half its level today. House prices began to move inexorably upwards. While I rates rose, many mortgage-holders have not felt a thing. Many had loaded up on fixed-rate mortgages, shielding them from higher rates. In response to record arrivals, politicians from Canada to Germany are clamping down on immigration. But even under the strictest policies, rich countries will probably continue to receive more migrants than they used to. Goldman Sachs reckons that if Kamala Harris wins net immigration will fall to 1.5m per year from well over 2m in 2024. If Donald Trump wins they expect it will fall only to 1.25m. The second factor relates to cities. When covid-19 struck in 2020, many people thought that urban areas would lose their shine. It has not worked out that way. People work from home a lot more than they used to, but big cities retain their draw. In America 37% of businesses are located in large urban areas, the same share as in 2019. The city’s triumph compounds the effects of the third factor: infrastructure. In many cities commuting has become more torturous, limiting how far people can live from their job. Some economists hope that a YIMBYish turn is afoot. Those people who say “yes” to having new housing “in my backyard” have won the argument, and appear to have converted some politicians.

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👀 The tide is turning on investor sentiment towards investing in offices. ⚖️ It feels like we are returning to a more balanced market with interest rate, work from home and office bashing extremes all abating. 💡 There is a unique window for those groups tactical enough to take first mover advantage to benefit from accessing opportunities with limited competition. 📞 Get in touch with any of the team below to discuss how to navigate the continuing evolving landscape.

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