Biglaan na pagbago kan klima
An biglaan na pagbago kan klima nangyayari kun an sistema nin klima nagpipirit na maglipat sa bagong estado kan klima base sa balanseng enerhiya kan sistema nin klima, asin na mas marikas sa pagbabago kawsa kan mga panluwas na elemento.[1]Kabali sa nainot na mga pangyayari an pagtapos kan Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse,[2] Younger Dryas[3], an mga Dansgaard-Oeschger events, Heinrich events asin posible man an Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum.[4]An termino ginagamit man sa konteksto sa pag-init sa bilog na globo tanganing iladawan an biglang pagbabago sa klima na risang - risa sa paglihis nin panahon.[5]
An mga panahon nin mga pangyayari na ilinadawan na 'bigla-bigla' pwedeng magkaiba-iba. An mga pagbabago sa klima kan Greenland naitala sa mga huring aldaw kan Younger Dryas, ini sukol sa mga tahaw kan yelo, nagkaigwa nin biglaang pag-imbong na+10 °C(+18 °F) sa laog kan pirang taon sana.[6] An iba pang biglang pagbabago iyo an +4 °C(+7.2 °F) sa Greenland 11,270 taon na an nakaagi[7] o an biglang +6 °C (11 °F) pag-imbong 22,000 na taon na an nakaagi sa Antartica.[8] Sa kabaliktaran, an Paleocene-Eocene termal maximum sinasabing biglaang nagpuon saen man sa pagitan nin pirang dekada asin nagkapirang ribong taon. An mga modelong proyekto manungod sa sistema kan kinaban nagpapasairarom sa greenhouse gas emissions mas amay pa sa 2047, an temperatura kan kinaban posibleng mawara sa range of variability sa huring 150 taon, na maaapektuhan an 3 bilyon katawo asin kadaklan sa mga lugar na may mga maray na klaseng espesye sa kinaban[9]
Mga pakahulogan
[baguhon | baguhon an source]Uyon sa sa Committee on Abrupt Climate Change of the National Research Council
Igwa nin duwang kahulogan an biglang pagbago sa klima:
- Sa mga termino nin pisika, ini iyo an transisyon kan sistema sa klima sa laen-laen na paagi sa laog kan sarong panahon na mas marikas kisa sa responsableng pagbago.
- Sa termino kan epekto kaini, ini an "an biglang pagbabago sarong pagbabago na marikason asin dai linalaoman kaya an mga tawo o sistemang natural nasasakitan na makibagay igdi. "
An mga kahulogan na ini magkakomplemento: an naenot nagtatao nin pakarorop sa nangyayaring biglang pagbabago sa klima; an paliwanag kan ikaduwa kun taano ta kadakol kan pagsiyasat na idinusay igdi.
Mga epekto
[baguhon | baguhon an source]An biglang pagbago sa klima posibleng marhay na iyo an nagin dahelan kan lakop asin grabeng mga epekto:
- Sa mga dakulaang ekstinksyon kan mga nakaagin panahon, an Permino-Triasic Extinction (o mas bisto sa apod na dakulang kagadanan) asin an Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse, an sinasabing posibleng naging resulta kan biglang pagbago nin klima.[10][11][12]
- Pagkawara kan biobersidad: kun mayo nin olang hale sa biglang pagbago sa klima asin iba pang ekstinksyon, an biodybersidad kan planetang ini padagos na matalubo.[13]
- Mga pagbabago sa sirkulasyon nin kadagatan arog baga kan.
- pagdakul kan mga El Niño pangyayari.[14][15]
- An politikal na diriskutiran sa sirkulasyon kan termohaline, arog kan tibaad nangyari durante kan okasyon kan Hoben na si Dryas.[16][17]
- Mga pagbabago sa osipon kan Atlantiko sa Amihanan na Atlantiko.[18]
- Mga Pagbabago sa Atlantikong Medional sa Pagpabagsak sa Circulation (AMOC) na puedeng makakontribuwir sa mas grabeng mga pangyayari sa panahon.[19]
Hilingon man
[baguhon | baguhon an source]- Adaptasyon sa pagbabago kan klima
- Emerhensia sa klima
- Sensitinidad panklima
- Mga epekto kan pankinaban na pag-imbong
Mga referensya
[baguhon | baguhon an source]- ↑ Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, National Research Council. (2002). "Definition of Abrupt Climate Change". Abrupt climate change : inevitable surprises. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. doi:10.17226/10136. ISBN 978-0-309-07434-6.
- ↑ Sahney, S.; Benton, M.J.; Falcon-Lang, H.J. (2010). "Rainforest collapse triggered Pennsylvanian tetrapod diversification in Euramerica". Geology 38 (12): 1079–1082. doi: . Bibcode: 2010Geo....38.1079S.
- ↑ Broecker, W. S. (May 2006). "Geology. Was the Younger Dryas triggered by a flood?". Science 312 (5777): 1146–1148. doi: . ISSN 0036-8075. PMID 16728622.
- ↑ Committee on Abrupt Climate Change, Ocean Studies Board, Polar Research Board, Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Division on Earth and Life Studies, National Research Council. (2002). Abrupt climate change : inevitable surprises. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. p. 108. ISBN 0-309-07434-7.
- ↑ Rial; Pielke Sr.; Beniston (2004). "Nonlinearities, Feedbacks and Critical Thresholds within the Earth's Climate System". Climatic Change 65: 11–00. doi: .
- ↑ Grachev, A.M.; Severinghaus, J.P. (2005). "A revised +10±4 °C magnitude of the abrupt change in Greenland temperature at the Younger Dryas termination using published GISP2 gas isotope data and air thermal diffusion constants". Quaternary Science Reviews 24 (5–6): 513–9. doi: . Bibcode: 2005QSRv...24..513G.
- ↑ Kobashi, T.; Severinghaus, J.P.; Barnola, J. (30 April 2008). "4 ± 1.5 °C abrupt warming 11,270 yr ago identified from trapped air in Greenland ice". Earth and Planetary Science Letters 268 (3–4): 397–407. doi: . Bibcode: 2008E&PSL.268..397K.
- ↑ Taylor, K.C.; White, J; Severinghaus, J; Brook, E; Mayewski, P; Alley, R; Steig, E; Spencer, M; et al. (January 2004). "Abrupt climate change around 22 ka on the Siple Coast of Antarctica". Quaternary Science Reviews 23 (1–2): 7–15. doi: . Bibcode: 2004QSRv...23....7T.
- ↑ Mora, C (2013). "The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability". Nature 502 (7470): 183–187. doi: . Bibcode: 2013Natur.502..183M.
- ↑ Sahney, S.; Benton, M.J.; Falcon-Lang, H.J. (2010). "Rainforest collapse triggered Pennsylvanian tetrapod diversification in Euramerica". Geology 38 (12): 1079–1082. doi: . Bibcode: 2010Geo....38.1079S.
- ↑ Sahney, S.; Benton, M.J. (2008). "Recovery from the most profound mass extinction of all time". Proceedings of the Royal Society B 275 (1636): 759–65. doi: .
- ↑ Crowley; North. "Abrupt Climate Change and Extinction Events in Earth History". Science 240 (4855): 996–1002. doi: . Bibcode: 1988Sci...240..996C.
- ↑ Sahney, S.; Benton, M.J.; Ferry, P.A. (2010). "Links between global taxonomic diversity, ecological diversity and the expansion of vertebrates on land". Biology Letters 6 (4): 544–547. doi: .
- ↑ Trenberth, K. E.; Hoar, T. J. (1997). "El Niño and climate change". Geophysical Research Letters 24 (23): 3057–3060. doi: . Bibcode: 1997GeoRL..24.3057T. Archived from the original on 2013-01-14. https://web.archive.org/web/20130114132934/http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/trenberth.pdf/Trenberth%26Hoar97GL03092.pdf. Retrieved on 2021-01-27.
- ↑ Meehl, G. A.; Washington, W. M. (1996). "El Niño-like climate change in a model with increased atmospheric CO
2 concentrations". Nature 382 (6586): 56–60. doi: . Bibcode: 1996Natur.382...56M. https://zenodo.org/record/1233184. - ↑ Broecker, W. S. (1997). "Thermohaline Circulation, the Achilles Heel of Our Climate System: Will Man-Made CO2 Upset the Current Balance?". Science 278 (5343): 1582–1588. doi: . Bibcode: 1997Sci...278.1582B. Archived from the original on 2009-11-22. https://web.archive.org/web/20091122154415/http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/arch/docs/broecker_1997.pdf. Retrieved on 2021-01-27.
- ↑ Manabe, S.; Stouffer, R. J. (1995). "Simulation of abrupt climate change induced by freshwater input to the North Atlantic Ocean". Nature 378 (6553). doi: . Bibcode: 1995Natur.378..165M. http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/sm9501.pdf.
- ↑ Beniston, M.; Jungo, P. (2002). "Shifts in the distributions of pressure, temperature and moisture and changes in the typical weather patterns in the Alpine region in response to the behavior of the North Atlantic Oscillation". Theoretical and Applied Climatology 71 (1–2): 29–42. doi: . Bibcode: 2002ThApC..71...29B. http://doc.rero.ch/lm.php?url=1000,43,2,20050718135259-QT/1_bensiton_sdp.pdf.
- ↑ J. Hansen; M. Sato (2015). "Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 °C global warming is highly dangerous". Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 15 (14): 20059–20179. doi: . Bibcode: 2015ACPD...1520059H. http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/acp-2015-432/.