A new survey suggests the unlikeability of both Dutton and Albanese. It could spell one of the ugliest political campaigns in modern memory

The elites in Paris versus the battlers in Australia.

Climate action and emissions reduction targets crashing the economy.

Three-eyed fish and a nuclear dystopia.

A secret slash-and-burn agenda.

Welcome to election 2025, or even — if you believe the political whispers — election December 2024 if the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, decides to go early.

The past week has given us a taste — a nibble — of the degustation of political messages we are about to be bombarded with ahead of the next election.

And a trigger warning — it ain't pretty.

Are things about to get ugly?

The hardening of the Coalition's position on the pathway to net zero and the interim climate targets has given insight into what the coming months will look like.

And those who have been in the political trenches for years are predicting the ugliest campaign we've seen in modern political memory.

This is saying something because they remember the carbon tax election of 2013, "Mediscare" of 2016, and death taxes of 2019. It's not like we haven't done scary before. We've been around this block.

The basis for this prediction is based on a political trend we are seeing in Australia that mirrors something going on in the United States.

Coined the "double haters" — the RedBridge political research team reckon we are in firm "double hater" territory now — where people aren't great fans of either mainstream political leader, and we need to buckle up for the way this will be weaponised.

RedBridge research predicts the coming election contest will be about which leader is most disliked.

And while the Trump/Biden rematch is a far cry from what is happening in Australia — thankfully so — the phenomenon is worth exploring.

In Australia our compulsory voting electoral system means the implications will be enormous — because the main parties don't have to "turn out" their voters — everyone must vote. 

It means a growing third-party vote as voters (compelled to cast a ballot) are turned off by the main parties.

The test in sentiments around the two leaders shows a lack of enthusiasm for both of them, and RedBridge director Tony Barry says that should worry their parties.

He told the ABC the most important attributes for political and corporate leadership are honesty, vision, empathy, hope, strength and shared values with the electorate.

"In our research, voters don't recognise these attributes in either major party candidate and instead what we are seeing is the emergence and rise of the 'double haters' across the Australian political landscape," Barry says.

"Like their American counterparts, this Australian cohort feel alienated and dissatisfied with both Labor and the Coalition and typically have no brand loyalty to either major party."

He said that "added to this, grievances in the electorate are mobilising and expanding this 'double haters' cohort which means both major parties will want to make the campaign a referendum on the other candidate".

"That's why this coming election will be the mother of all bipartisan scare campaigns and the most negative in memory.

"The responses and voting behaviour of this cohort will decide the next election."

A fascinating story is emerging 

Former Labor strategist and RedBridge pollster Kos Samaras says the 'double haters' term was first coined in the United States, defining a group of voters that reject the political duopoly of Democrats and Republicans in that country.

He says the phenomenon is "alive and well in Australia, supercharged by young Australians who express the lowest levels of any values connection with any political party in this country".

"They featured prominently in the over 5 million Australians who voted for minor parties and independents at the last federal election — and will go on to destabilising this country's political two-party system in a very big way," Samaras says.

Over recent weeks, the RedBridge Group surveyed around 2,000 Australian voters, seeking their views on issues including their feelings about both Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

They asked about 800 participants specifically about the leadership attributes of each leader and the results tell a fascinating story.

Albanese and Dutton are both viewed as lacking in empathy and failing to give voters hope, according to the new research which reveals the double dissatisfaction with the leadership attributes of both federal leaders.

The results will worry both sides of politics. When asked whether the leaders give "people like me hope" only 29 per cent of respondents believed prime minister Albanese gave hope and 51 per cent said he doesn't give hope. Opposition leader Dutton scored just 27 per cent of people saying he did give hope and 46 per cent responding that he did not.

In response to the empathy question, 32 per cent said they agreed that Albanese has "empathy for people like me" and 47 per cent said he didn't.

For Dutton, only 31 per cent said he had empathy for them, and 46 per cent saying he didn't.

On the question of whether Albanese had "similar values to people like me" the prime minister scored 31 per cent approval and 49 per cent saying he didn't share similar values to them.

But that question was also worse for Dutton, with only 26 per cent said he had similar values to them and 49 per cent claiming he didn't.

On the key measure of whether voters think they are both strong leaders, 33 per cent identified Albanese as a strong leader while only 29 per cent believed Dutton was a strong leader.

'Double haters' leverage plans

The renewed climate conflict is galvanising the election plans of community activists. While the Coalition is in their main sights — particularly after Dutton's most recent policy announcement to delay the 2030 climate target — more community independents and teals will likely run and be helped by Climate 200, the fundraising group which was behind the teal movement at the last election.

As a condition of receiving funding, recipients must agree with Climate 200's political objectives on climate change, strengthening integrity in politics, advancing gender equity, and must be able to "demonstrate a strategic pathway to victory".

They will also capitalise on this ‘double hater' phenomenon.

Businessman Simon Holmes à Court is the founder of Climate 200, and told me recently on RN Breakfast that opposition leader Peter Dutton "nailing his colours to the mast" on emissions reduction targets has made the independents' campaign easier.

It comes as the group reveals its plans to fund the campaigns of more independent candidates ahead of the next election.

In a week's time, these independents will host their 2024 campaign conference, run by the Community Independence Project, with 600 people attending from 114 electorates around the country.

Homes à Court says 100 people have signed up for the Community Independence Convention after Peter Dutton made his comments on the Paris Agreement.

He told me they were "demand and data-driven about where they will fund campaigns to unseat sitting mainstream party MPs".

But he said Labor wasn't off the hook.

"Of the 114 electorates that are represented, there's certainly a bunch of electorates that are held by Labor. We do hear that there are some groups that are growing in some Labor areas.

"One being in the ACT. I think there's a Pocock effect in the ACT," he says, referring to Independent Senator David Pocock who won a senate spot at the last election on the back of a climate change platform — effectively taking the place of a Liberal Senator.

"People like what they see and they're thinking a lot about independents at both the territory government level, but also in the lower house."

The ABC can reveal the campaign has raised a little over $1 million in the past eight weeks from 1,300 in donors across 146 electorates and are already helping nine (non-incumbent) community campaigns.

"It's certainly the case that many communities working on independent campaigns are disappointed at Labor's mixed messages on climate," Homes à Court believes.

Homes à Court says communities see little difference between Labor's future gas policy and the coalition's gas-led recovery, and a $1.5 billion grant to the Middle Arm fossil fuel project has people fired up.

"That said, they are much more disturbed, if not angry with Peter Dutton for taking the climate wars back to Tony Abbott and the division of 2013 — and keeping his plans secret from the voters until after the election."

Why does it matter?

Let's return to what the research says. Voters say they want honesty, vision, empathy, hope, strength and shared values with them.

We know negative campaigning works — the question is what damage it does in the long term?

We are about to see that tested once again.

Patricia Karvelas is the presenter of RN Breakfast and co-host of the Party Room podcast. She also hosts Q+A, which returns on ABC TV in August.