C. Derek Campbell

Maritime Security Bulletin and Geopolitical Update   Re: Hamas Has Killed (1) Israeli Soldier and Wounded (2)Others in a Gunfight in Southern Gaza. Issued by: Sanborn Analytics   Contact: [email protected] | Phone: (+1) (617) 539-6114   Media Credit: Israel Times (see link)   Date: October 14th, 2024 --- Subject: Fatal Incident in Southern Gaza Strip Involving Israeli IDF Forces On October 14th, 2024, Israeli Defense Force soldier Sgt. Koren Bitan, aged 19, was killed during active operations in the southern Gaza Strip, the Israeli Military has confirmed. Sgt. Bitan was engaged in a gunfight with Hamas operatives when the fatal incident occurred. In addition to Sgt. Bitan's death, two other IDF soldiers were wounded during the same exchange of fire. Sgt. Bitan was a member of Battalion 450, which is part of the Bislamach Brigade, also known as the School for Infantry Corps Professions and Squad Commanders. Prior to joining Battalion 450, Bitan had begun his service in the Kfir Brigade, a unit known for its role in counterterrorism and security operations within the West Bank. This incident highlights ongoing tensions and security challenges in the region, particularly as the conflict with Hamas in Gaza continues to impact both military personnel and civilian populations. For the maritime shipping community and naval forces operating in the Eastern Mediterranean, the risk of regional destabilization due to escalating conflict remains a critical factor. Sanborn Analytics advises heightened awareness of any naval or commercial operations near the Gaza Strip and surrounding areas, as spillover effects from the ground conflict may pose risks to maritime traffic and operational safety. The ongoing military actions, combined with potential retaliatory or terrorist activities, could disrupt shipping lanes or impact port access in adjacent waters. Recommendations: - Maintain communication with relevant military and port authorities when operating near the Eastern Mediterranean region. - Monitor for updates regarding potential military operations or escalations that may affect maritime routes. - Exercise caution and adhere to established safety protocols to mitigate the risk of collateral impact from ongoing military engagements. Sanborn Analytics issues this maritime security bulletin and advisory to inform the maritime shipping community and armed naval forces at sea. ---  #maritimesecurity #gaza #israel #hamas #israelhamaswar #palestine #iran #nationalsecurity #hoemlandsecurity #lebanon #hezbollah #beruit https://lnkd.in/eRFMaHvG

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#Denmark seeks to stop #shadowtankerfleet carrying #Russianoil 👁️Reuters Ghttps://lnkd.in/gEBMqVjq 👁️Windward Report UPDATED: Illuminating Russia’s Shadow Fleet Windward’s Maritime AI™ platform identified a three-tiered system of vessels to paint a more accurate picture of Russian oil smuggling: #Clearedfleet – tankers not exhibiting any suspicious conduct, such as flag hopping or irregular ownership structure….[…] #Grayfleet – a completely new phenomenon evolving from the Russia war. Overseas companies have been quickly established following the outbreak of the war, to obscure vessel origins and ownership, and to appear law-abiding/non-sanctioned. This fleet is described as “gray” because it is difficult to determine #legality and #sanctionscompliance in many cases. A significant number of these vessels also switch flags (“#flaghopping”) frequently. Windward has identified over 1,000 #grayvessels around the world. #Darkfleet – this fleet often utilizes “dark activities” (the intentional disabling of the #automaticidentificationsystem) to move #wetcargo, along with other deceptive shipping practices (#DSPs), such as ID and location tampering. Windward has identified approximately 1,300 #darkfleetvessels. https://lnkd.in/gPjJpWSP 👁️ S & P Global, 19 June 2024 spglobal.com Russia's shadow fleet − Formation, operation and continued risks for sanctions compliance teams https://lnkd.in/gGa2SJ2a The shadow fleet, which includes vessels that operate under complex ownership and registration arrangements to evade sanctions, has grown notably. These updates illustrate the evolving dynamics of the Russian oil trade and the extensive measures being taken to circumvent international sanctions, with significant implications for #globalmaritimetrade and #environmentalsafety. 1. Shadow Fleet Size and Growth: • As of July 2024, the number of tankers involved in the Russian oil trade has increased to 600 due to the ongoing geopolitical situation and subsequent sanctions. 2. Operational Tactics: • The shadow fleet employs various deceptive tactics such as #AIS (Automatic Identification System) blackouts and the blending of Russian oil with oil from other origins to obscure its true source. • High #sulfurfuel usage: many vessels not equipped with the required exhaust cleaning systems, posing #environmentalrisks. 3. Global Impact and Trade Routes: • Western ports, particularly in Europe and Asia, have seen increased enforcement, resulting in several detentions in 2024. • The main export routes for Russian oil have shifted towards Asian markets, especially China. #russianshadowfleet #russianoiltankers #sanctions Photo: Reuters

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#Denmark seeks to stop #shadowtankerfleet carrying #Russianoil 👁️Reuters Ghttps://lnkd.in/gEBMqVjq 🦉ME: It is difficult for Denmark to act alone due to Russia’s threats of retaliation. The international waters of the Denmark Strait (Danmarksstrædet) through to the Baltic States are at high risk of catastrophic oil spills. 👁️Windward Report UPDATED: Illuminating Russia’s Shadow Fleet Windward’s Maritime AI™ platform identified a three-tiered system of vessels….: #Clearedfleet – tankers not exhibiting any suspicious conduct, such as flag hopping or irregular ownership structure….[…] #Grayfleet – a completely new phenomenon evolving from the Russia war. Overseas companies have been quickly established following the outbreak of the war, to obscure vessel origins and ownership, and to appear law-abiding/non-sanctioned. This fleet is described as “gray” because it is difficult to determine #legality and #sanctionscompliance in many cases. A significant number of these vessels also switch flags (“#flaghopping”) frequently. Windward has identified over 1,000 #grayvessels around the world. #Darkfleet – this fleet often utilizes “dark activities” (the intentional disabling of the #automaticidentificationsystem) to move #wetcargo, along with other deceptive shipping practices (#DSPs), such as ID and location tampering. Windward has identified approximately 1,300 #darkfleetvessels. https://lnkd.in/gPjJpWSP 👁️ S & P Global, 19 June 2024 spglobal.com Russia's shadow fleet − Formation, operation and continued risks for sanctions compliance teams https://lnkd.in/gGa2SJ2a The #shadowfleet includes vessels that operate under opaque and complex ownership and registration arrangements to evade #sanctions. Recent #secondarysanctions by the UK and other Western nations…. aim to reduce its effectiveness by imposing restrictions on Russian #logisticsproviders and #insurers. These updates illustrate the extensive measures being taken to circumvent sanctions, with significant implications for #globalmaritimetrade and #environmentalsafety. 1. Shadow Fleet Size and Growth: • As of July 2024, the number of tankers involved in the Russian oil trade has increased to 600. 2. Operational Tactics: • The shadow fleet employs various deceptive tactics such as #AIS (Automatic Identification System) blackouts and the blending of Russian oil with oil from other origins to obscure its true source. • High #sulfurfuel usage: many vessels not equipped with the required exhaust cleaning systems, posing #environmentalrisks. 3. Global Impact and Trade Routes: • Western ports, particularly in Europe and Asia, have seen increased enforcement, resulting in several detentions in 2024. • The main export routes for Russian oil have shifted towards Asian markets, especially China. 4. Environmental Impact and Safety: Incidents involving these tankers, such as fires, oil spills and engine failure have increased… #russianshadowfleet Photo: Reuters

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Poliico [excerpt]: #EuropeanUnion governments and other allied capitals are cooking up a plan to beef up the security of submarine cable networks — and that includes pushing out Chinese vendors from rollout projects. The U.S. is drafting a “New York Joint Statement,” obtained by POLITICO, that is set to be signed later this month in the margins of the United Nations General Assembly, Sept. 22-25. #EU member countries are giving their approval to join the pledge. Communication cables are running massive #data streams across the world and are essential to the functioning of the world economy. But they’re also vulnerable to the threat of tapping data straight from the pipes — though this is difficult and expensive — sabotage, where cables are cut or otherwise damaged, and supply chain shocks. Russia is known to have been involved in disrupting and sabotaging these networks since as early as 2014, researchers have flagged and U.S. officials recently told CNN they’d observed more worrying activity by Russia. Countries signing the statement would demand network operators to have supply chain security and data security measures in place, and share information in case of incidents, the draft said. The text was first reported on by MLex. The New York declaration is an attempt to procure submarine cable networks from companies in allied countries — echoing the West’s efforts in past years to kick out Chinese companies from 5G infrastructure. The concerns with Chinese equipment centers on the fear that booming Chinese suppliers are taking the market in a stranglehold. While the list of competitors for submarine cable projects is long, the big fight is often between U.S. provider SubCom, Europe’s Alcatel Submarine Networks (owned by Nokia) and HMN Tech in #China, as well as others like Prysmian (Italy) and Nexans (France), Japan’s NEC and China’s ZTT. HMN Tech is one of the fastest-growing companies in the market. It was known as Huawei Marine Networks until 2020, when it was taken over by Hengtong Group and changed its brand name. Control over the supply chain means the West would be reliant on tech that China could at any moment stop supplying, or the suppliers could be ordered by the Chinese government to disrupt the cables’ operation. The draft said countries will promote “reliable and trusted cable components and services.” They also want to “encourage undersea cable network service providers and operations and maintenance providers to have transparent ownership, partnerships, and corporate governance structures” — a complaint that’s often linked to Chinese #technology firms with opaque structures or ties to government-affiliated organizations. The EU is going through an internal process to get permission from the national governments of its member countries to sign on the dotted line at the U.N. meeting. The European Commission should get permission from those representatives to sign on their behalf at a meeting next week. #news

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I agree with Dr. Mohamed ELDoh, and would add that countering Russia's influence in Africa, as well as China's influence in Africa, must be based on a broader premise than counter-terrorism. It was apparent in my engagements with African leaders, that they are not interested in being subjected to the trappings of political pawns. There needs to be genuine and broad investment. All elements of national power, to include commercial interest should be brought to bear. It's not lost on me, that instability and risk deter commercial interest, therefore security is a big part of the calculus. It's complex and hard....important things are seldom simple and easy. #thinkdeterrence #africa

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Why are US Warships inside a foreign sovereign nation's waterways illegally blocking access?? "Re: The current ongoing operations by SEAFAC Carderock Division of the US Naval surface warfare center in the Behm Canal near #Ketchikan WITHOUT permission of Pictland's recognized Sovereign nation. The Behm Canal is located within the territorial waters of the Kingdom of Pictland a declared neutral Sovereign Nation. The current ongoing testing by #SEAFAC involves US WARSHIPS within the recognized territorial waters of the Kingdom of Pictland being a recognized Sovereign nation. This is a violation of the Rules of Neutrality and recognized International and Maritime laws should such activities continue. We have issued on a number of occasions the Absolute Title and Information document to the #USA. The continued disregard of the Rules of Neutrality and the recognized international and Maritime laws sets a bad precedent which others will be quick to emulate. We ask that these operations in the Behm Canal be halted and removed until such a time as our 2 governments have had time to discuss this and other ongoing concerns reinforcing the Belligerent armed occupation and forced corporation colonization of our Sovereign coastal region." H.M.King Derile Pentland II Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA) US Navy Naval Special Warfare Command - Navy SEAL & SWCC Teams The White House US Congress Executive Office of the President United States Department of Defense United Nations Government of Russia Presidential Executive Office of the Russian Federation Government of China Government of Canada Office of the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance of Canada Office of the Prime Minister of Canada | Cabinet du premier ministre du Canada

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An assessment of the Middle East with focus on Iran Israel enmity. It's a question of simplifying the complexity of the sub conflicts which dot the Middle Eastern landscape. Some predictions for this year have also been made. https://lnkd.in/gxwsmbkG

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Egyptian ship delivers weapons to Somalia 🇸🇴 without no Risk Assessment!!!. Egypt delivers ship loads of heavy and other type without proper checks and risk assessment and these destructive weapons will end up in the hands of terrorist and criminals that will jeopardise the entire region and shipping lanes. We have seen and bore witness to Somali pirates taking hostages of ships and thanks to the Egyptian flooding arms to Somalia with weapons the risk is enormous to land ,sea and air. In 1980’s heavy artillery shelling destroyed our cities to the ground and now its anticipated Somalia will, once again supply these weapons to anyone against the Republic of Somaliland to jeopardise peace and tranquility of our nation. Somalia is Bank rolled by the UN and EU as this failed state of Somalia can not raise it revenue from its people unlike Somaliland. We call on the international commcommunity to to monitor these arlaming developments and take appropriate action to mitigate these immediately.

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I would add to Admiral James Stavridis' final point that there is a need to go beyond infrastructure funded by the DFI community. U.S. International Development Finance Corporation is a critical institution for developing markets in Africa, no doubt, but the $1bn annual budget doesn't necessitate the scale required to compete nor the scale the U.S. is capable of competing with. DFC is an incredibly important supplement; it is not a replacement. The U.S. accounts for 15 out of the top 20 assets management firms globally, totaling more than $50 trillion. Less than 1% of total institutional capital across the board is invested in Africa, and markedly less as direct investment in infrastructure or real assets. That's starting to change, slowly, as leading asset managers and pension funds like Blackstone, Nuveen, a TIAA company, Morgan Stanley, Chicago Teachers'​ Pension Fund, Teacher Retirement System of Texas, CalPERS, City of Atlanta, PSPRS, City of Hartford, City of Stamford, have made, or are considering making, meaningful allocations to investments on the African continent. But to scale will require a proliferation of forward-thinking US asset managers and pensions funds like the ones listed above combined with active deal sourcing and collaborative structuring of investable opportunities.

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David M. Luna 🦏 🌎 🐘 Threat Convergence ≜ Kine-Dynamics quoted in latest report by award-winning investigative journalist Sam Cooper on "Ports, Fentanyl, Corruption: Beijing's Triad of threats to the United States" (Unheeded Warnings: The Bureau investigates Canadian intelligence on the causes of opioids pouring into North America). The Bureau asked David Luna, a former U.S. Department of State official, if McAdam’s focus on Hutchison and Chinese-controlled ports could shed light on the fentanyl trade examined now by U.S. agencies. Luna is executive director of an NGO, International Coalition Against Illicit Economies (ICAIE) / ICAIE Labs, that briefs national security leaders on emerging threats, and malign influence, from hostile states including China and Iran that leverage illicit financial networks in Canada and Latin America. Luna couldn’t comment on specific intelligence from McAdam’s 1990s-era reporting, but in a written response confirmed Beijing’s influence in Western ports is concerning. "It is true that most of the fentanyl and the fentanyl precursors in Mexico are not only sourced to China, but arrive in the hemisphere through ports where, in some cases, the PRC either has control or partial control of the port operations, or exert their corruptive influence, and with help from some of China's diasporic proxies, criminal Triads, and complicit enablers (e.g., Mexican cartels) that facilitate such cross-border illicit trade and related money laundering." *** A report from Dr. Evan Ellis of U.S. Army War College says trade between China and Mexico is central to the fentanyl crisis that killed over 100,000 Americans in 2023. Hutchison Whampoa has operated major ports in Mexico since the 1990s, where the Sinaloa cartel partners with Sun Yee On and 14K Triads to import fentanyl precursors from Wuhan, the report says. “Many of those drugs and precursors are brought in through Mexican ports operated by the Chinese company Hutchison,” it says. As US Congress launches investigations into Chinese Communist Party involvement in fentanyl trafficking and money laundering with Mexican cartels, McAdam’s reporting on Hutchison Whampoa and his suspicions about Beijing’s corruptive influence in North American politics look increasingly relevant. https://lnkd.in/erTwnH63 U.S. Department of Homeland Security Drug Enforcement Administration Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) United States Department of Defense Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) | Service canadien du renseignement de sécurité (SCRS) Royal Canadian Mounted Police | Gendarmerie royale du Canada Calvin Chrustie LLM #maligninflence #hybridwarfare #China #organizedcrime #triads #fentanyl #illicittrade #corruption #moneylaundering #ports #trade #maritimesecurity #FTZs #Ottawa #Toronto #Vancouver #Montreal

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🇦🇷🇷🇺🇺🇸 #Russia’s military #influence in #Argentina based on the eighth report from the M-DIME Research Project by the #USArmy #TRADOC’s Foreign Military Studies Office (#FMSO): #Russia🇷🇺’s current military influence in #Argentina🇦🇷 is assessed as #low. However, Russia employs several instruments of national power to maintain and potentially expand this influence Through defense-related #diplomacy, Russia engages in frequent high-level visits and meetings with Argentine officials to sustain #military ties. Cultural and media outreach is another tool, as Russian media is #prominent in Argentina and shapes public opinion favorably towards Russia, indirectly supporting military objectives. Economic partnerships in strategic sectors, such as #nuclear energy and #resource extraction, further bolster Russia's influence, with state-owned companies like #Rosatom involved in joint ventures. Looking forward, Russia's influence is projected to remain steady, driven by continued diplomatic efforts and increased #media outreach, which may shift #Argentine #public opinion and #diplomatic #alignments, especially in the context of the 🇷🇺⚡️🇺🇦#Russia-#Ukrain conflict. #SoftPower #Diplomacy

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🔥🇻🇪 Venezuelan election could lead to seismic shift in politics or give President Maduro six more years. 🗳️ “CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Polls have opened in Venezuela, where people are voting Sunday in a presidential election whose outcome will either lead to a seismic shift in politics or extend by six more years the policies that caused the world’s worst peacetime economic collapse.” 🆘 “Authorities set Sunday’s election to coincide with what would have been the 70th birthday of former President Hugo Chávez, the revered leftist firebrand who died of cancer in 2013, leaving his Bolivarian revolution in the hands of Maduro. But Maduro and his United Socialist Party of Venezuela are more unpopular than ever among many voters who blame his policies for crushing wages, spurring hunger, crippling the oil industry and separating families due to migration.” ❎ I hope to be wrong, but I believe the Venezuelan elections will be rigged, allowing Maduro another six years in power. We may see some initial unrest with the results, but eventually, things will likely return to normal. https://lnkd.in/gCJxRgwn

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🚨 Red Cell Friday: Iran's Use of Proxy Forces 🚨 🔥 This week’s Red Cell analysis highlights Iran’s strategic use of proxy forces as central to its foreign #policy and military strategy. These groups enable #Iran to project power and influence across the Middle East and beyond while maintaining plausible deniability. 💡 By funding, arming, and training these #proxygroups, #Iran extends its reach and creates instability in key regions: 🔫 #Military Influence – Leveraging groups like Hezbollah and militias in Iraq and Syria to exert influence and disrupt regional stability. 🌍 #Political Manipulation – Using proxies to destabilize governments, influence political outcomes, and further Iranian interests. 💥 #Asymmetric Warfare – Employing irregular tactics like guerrilla warfare, cyberattacks, and missile strikes via proxies to challenge stronger state actors. 💰 #Financial Networks – Funding proxy operations through illicit activities, smuggling, and connections to criminal networks. 🎯 #Terrorism – Supporting proxy groups with ties to terrorism to instill fear, target adversaries, and shift regional dynamics. 🔴 Iran's proxy #strategy allows it to act aggressively while avoiding direct confrontation with state actors. The web of proxy networks destabilizes regions and creates long-term threats to #US and allied interests. ✅ Understanding and countering this strategy requires coordinated #intelligence, #military, and #diplomatic efforts to disrupt Iran’s proxy #networks and limit their influence. 🔍 What are the most effective ways to counter proxy warfare strategies? Let’s discuss. #RedCellFridays #NationalSecurity #ProxyWarfare #Iran #StrategicCompetition #MiddleEast #AsymmetricWarfare #Geopolitics Image from the internet

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🌍📑 Explore the latest #Pacnet from #PacificForum! David Santoro, President & CEO, and John Hemmings, Senior Advisor, analyze NATO's evolving role in US Indo-Pacific deterrence. Gain insights into the strategic importance of closing the 'Hawaii gap' for global security. Read their article for in-depth perspectives: https://lnkd.in/gSmwxGX9 #NATO #IndoPacific #Geopolitics #PacificForum

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Delighted to be quoted by Breaking Defense on "How #US #election might impact stalled #Saudi-#Israeli #normalization, arms sales to #Gulf" Ali Bakir, professor at Qatar University and non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, noted that #Saudi Arabia has signaled it has two key requirements it wants to see before moving forward with normalization. “These include a two-state solution to the #Israeli-#Palestinian conflict and a #NATO-like security agreement with the US. Currently, it appears that the conditions are not conducive for #Riyadh to advance in this area,” he said. “Buyers might perceive #Trump as more transactional, potentially leading them to believe that purchasing more weapons would grant them greater influence over him,” said Bakir, the #Qatar University expert. But, he warned, “Trump would likely aim to increase arms sales to the Gulf States, possibly pressuring some of them to buy more, even if it’s not in their best interest.” “For the #UAE, the F-35 deal could be contingent on other issues, such as their potential role in #Gaza,” said Bakir. “Israel expects the US to maintain its regional military edge. For #Saudi Arabia, the primary goal is to secure a #NATO-style agreement with the US, which would obligate the US to protect Saudi Arabia from foreign threats. #Qatar, on the other hand, may seek a more robust military-partnership and US military presence in the country.” https://lnkd.in/dXYMtvRH cc: Atlantic Council Atlantic Council Middle East Initiatives

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