Assessments

Iran

Israel

Palestinian Territories

Italy

Russia

Voters on June 6 in The Hague, the first day of the election for the European Parliament. In a vote that will shape the political direction and strategic priorities of the bloc for the next five years, elections for the European Parliament run from June 6-9.

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Military & Security

Politics

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: BRICS Foreign Ministers Meet, European Parliamentary Elections

Global Elections

Media

China

Taiwan

Podcasts

How is China reacting to President William Lai's inauguration?

Essential Geopolitics: The Outlook for Short-term China-Taiwan Relations

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Tunisia

Supporters of Tunisian President Kais Saied participate in a rally rejecting foreign interference in the country's internal affairs in Tunis, Tunisia, on May 19, 2024. 

After his expected reelection in late 2024, Saied will likely continue to consolidate power and crack down on dissent, but he'll remain constrained by Tunisia's powerful labor unions and fears of stoking unrest.

Tunisia's Authoritarian Slide Under President Saied Looks Set to Continue

Cyber

Economics

What steps should companies take to keep up with digital advancements and changing tech regulations?

RANE Insights: How Organizations Can Survive and Thrive in the Digital Era

Europe

A stock photo shows euro banknotes.

While extensive reforms over the past 15 years have made the euro area much more resilient, further reforms are needed to guard the currency zone against future shocks.

The Eurozone Has Come a Long Way Since the 2009 Debt Crisis, but Risks Remain

United States

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: June 6, 2024

United Kingdom

The Labour Party is expected to comfortably win the July 4 general election, ending 14 years of Conservative Party rule. But a hung parliament where no party secures a majority cannot be ruled out.

2024 Elections: The United Kingdom

India

Supporters of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) celebrate vote counting results for India's general election in Bengaluru on June 4, 2024. 

Results from India's general election indicate Modi's party will remain in power, but will fall short of an outright majority, forcing the BJP to rely on parties within its ruling coalition to govern.

India's BJP Clinches Another Term, but With a Weaker Majority

The June 28 presidential election will likely yield another hard-liner, but there's a chance Iran's Guardian Council will open the race up to more moderate candidates who, if elected, may seek to improve ties with the West. 

2024 Elections: Iran

U.S.-Iran Relations

South Africa

South African President and leader of the African National Congress (ANC) Cyril Ramaphosa (center) delivers his remarks after the official announcement of the results of South Africa's general election at the Gallagher Convention Centre in Midrand, on June 2, 2024. 

To secure a parliamentary majority, President Ramaphosa appears likely to seek an agreement with the center-right Democratic Alliance party, which would raise investor confidence but also risk triggering violent unrest.

What's Next for South Africa Following the ANC's Historic Electoral Defeat

Mexico

Mexico's President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum gives a speech after the first results released by the election authorities show that she is leading the polls by a wide margin on June 3, 2024, in Mexico City, Mexico. 

Energy

Environment, Science & Technology

As president, Sheinbaum will largely maintain Lopez Obrador's domestic policies, but pending legislative results could set the stage for controversial constitutional reforms. 

Morena Sweeps Mexico's General Election, Portending Policy Continuity and Possible Constitutional Reforms

Latest

Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf addresses the media after submitting his candidacy for the country's presidential election on June 3, 2024.

The approval of several hard-liners and the disqualification of influential moderates ensure that the June 28 presidential election will yield few changes to the country's foreign and domestic policies.

Iran's Approved Presidential Candidates Portend a Continuation of the Status Quo

The flags of EU countries are seen outside the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium.

Moderate parties will likely repeat their alliance in the supranational legislature and elect a similar European Commission, guaranteeing a high degree of EU policy continuity in the years ahead. 

Despite Far-Right Gains, Centrists Retain Control of the EU Parliament

Snapshots

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Ethiopia

Ghana

Kenya

Malawi

Tanzania

Zambia

Zimbabwe

South Korea

South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol (R) speaks as Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani (L), chair of the African Union, listens during a joint press conference following the 2024 Korea-Africa Summit in Goyang, South Korea, on June 4, 2024.

A recent summit highlights South Korea's commitment to expanding its role in Africa as Yoon looks to strengthen his country's technological future and geopolitical influence.

In South Korea, Yoon's Desire for Supply Chains and Prestige Points to Africa

France

The National Assembly on June 10 in Paris. French President Emmanuel Macron on June 9 announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and a legislative election June 30, with a second round on July 7.

The most likely outcome of the vote is prolonged policy paralysis either through a hung parliament or through complex cohabitation between a president and prime minister from different parties. 

French Early Legislative Elections Risk Policy Paralysis

Bolivia

Former Bolivian President Evo Morales (2nd from left) participates in the 10th congress of the Movement for Socialism (MAS) party on Oct. 4, 2023. 

The dispute over who will be the ruling party's 2025 presidential candidate is unlikely to ease anytime soon, portending more political gridlock, economic uncertainty and violent unrest.

A Rift at the Helm of Bolivia's Government Paves the Way for More Instability

Japan

(From left to right) Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Chinese Premier Li Qiang attend a joint press conference during a trilateral summit on May 27, 2024, in Seoul, South Korea. 

Barring major economic and political shifts, cooperation between the three countries is unlikely to notably improve, as Seoul and Tokyo's strategic interests will remain largely at odds with Beijing's.

Reviewing the China-Japan-South Korea Summit: A Long Shot Effort To Ease Tensions

An outdoor screen shows news coverage of China's military drills around Taiwan, in Beijing, China, on May 23, 2024. 

The drills suggest China will escalate its military coercion during Taiwanese President Lai's four-year term, and could be followed by more extensive drills later this year if the U.S. steps up its support for Taipei.

China's Latest Military Drills Around Taiwan Set the Tone for Cross-Strait Relations Under Lai

Peru

Peruvian President Dina Boluarte delivers an address to lawmakers in Congress on July 28, 2023.

Repeated impeachment efforts against President Boluarte indicate challenges to policymaking and, to a lesser degree, economic conditions, which will likely persist until the end of Boluarte's term in 2026.

Peru's Yearslong Political Crisis Shows Little Sign of Easing

People walk past campaign posters for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) outside the party's office in Leh, India, on May 17, 2024, during the country's ongoing general election.

While highly unlikely to threaten Modi's reelection, the lower turnout seen so far in the ongoing ballot means his party may not secure enough seats in parliament to unilaterally pass constitutional amendments during its next term.

India Election Update: The BJP Is Still Set To Win, But Low Turnout Dims Hopes for a Supermajority

Rescue team members work at the crash site of a helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Varzaghan, in northwestern Iran, on May 20, 2024. Raisi was declared dead on May 20 after rescue teams found his crashed helicopter.

The death will not significantly impact Iran's regional strategy, but will increase uncertainty surrounding the country's looming supreme leader succession.

Iran's President Raisi Has Died. What Now?

Columns

On Geopolitics

The Geopolitics of Water

The unequal distribution of freshwater shapes geopolitical patterns by driving competition, conflict and development, while water stress -- intensified by urbanization, agriculture, industry and climate change -- threatens social stability and economic security, as this RANE series will explore.

The Geopolitics of Water: An Introduction 

Saudi Arabia

Then-Saudi Defense Minister and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman holds a press conference in Riyadh on April 25, 2016, after unveiling the kingdom's economic diversification plan known as Vision 2030.

The kingdom's ambitious economic diversification plan has managed to survive the various geopolitical shocks that have emerged in recent years. But can it continue to do so?

Saudi Arabia's Adapted Vision 2030 Still Faces an Uncertain Future

A globe statue is seen at dusk.

As the international system becomes more multipolar, global norms will be increasingly tested, eroded and redefined, creating a more uncertain and volatile world.

Can International Norms Survive in a Multipolar World?

People attend the funeral procession in Tehran, Iran, on April 5, 2024, for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members killed in a recent Israeli strike in Syria.

Israel and Iran have shown they can stand on the brink and still step back. But future confrontations will run the risk of derailing strategic logic in their behavior, potentially trapping them in a war neither wants.

For Israel and Iran, April's Exchange Ushers In a New Era of Deterrence

Australia

Fiji

Indonesia

New Zealand

North Korea

Philippines

Singapore

Vietnam

A 3D rendering of Southeast Asia from space at night with city lights showing Southeast Asian cities in Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia.

In the Asia-Pacific, countries are increasingly pursuing complex networks of political, economic and defense ties as part of a burgeoning "multi-alignment" strategy that seeks to avoid U.S.-China strategic competition.

Examining 'Multi-Alignment' in the Asia-Pacific

U.S.-China Relations

An F-35C Lightning launches Jan. 6, 2022, off the flight deck of Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson. 

Political, financial and economic constraints will continue to limit the U.S. government's flexibility in adjusting spending, resulting in an ongoing rise in federal debt.

The Ongoing Rise of U.S. Debt Amid Geopolitical, Financial and Economic Constraints

Ultra-Orthodox Jews visit Israeli army soldiers to show their support as they deploy at a position near the border with Gaza in southern Israel on Oct. 11, 2023. 

Whether Israel finally scraps its controversial draft exemption for ultra-Orthodox Jews will hinge largely on the evolution of the country's relationship with its neighbors and rivals in the years ahead.

In Israel, Wartime Realities Renew Scrutiny Over Ultra-Orthodox Military Exemptions

Ukraine

Ukrainian anti-aircraft gunners fire in the direction of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region on Feb. 20, 2024. 

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Social Issues

The second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Putin's upcoming address to the nation offer an ideal occasion to again consider how Russia has and will continue to change as a result of the war.

The Ukraine War's Impact on Russia, Two Years On

Brazil

In Brazil, more than 100 legislators and several businesspeople organized a June 11 event to protest a provisional measure that, effective immediately, limits companies' ability to use tax credits and extinguishes cash reimbursements of presumed credits, CNN Brasil reported on June 10.

Brazil: Pushback to New Economic Policy Highlights Lula's Political Obstables

South Africa's opposition uMkhonto weSizwe, or MK, party filed urgent papers with the Constitutional Court to halt the first sitting of the National Assembly, scheduled for June 14, IOL reported on June 11.

South Africa: Zuma's MK Party Threatens To Block First Sitting of Parliament

Laos

Thailand

Science & Technology

Thailand will officially integrate its national rail system with Laos' China-built Kunming-Vientiane high-speed rail line under China's Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI, in July, Nikkei Asia reported on June 11.

China, Thailand, Laos: Thailand To Integrate Laos-China High-Speed Rail With National Network

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi began his third term on June 9 and announced Cabinet appointments the next day, Reuters reported on June 11.

India: Modi Begins Third Term, Appoints Cabinet Ministers

Hong Kong SAR, China

Former U.K. judge Jonathan Sumption -- who resigned from his position on Hong Kong's Court of Final Appeals alongside fellow former U.K. judge ​​Lawrence Antony on June 6 -- elaborated his reasons for departure in the Financial Times on June 10, claiming there "are continual calls for judicial 'patriotism.' It requires unusual courage for local judges to swim against such a strong political tide." 

Hong Kong: U.K. Judge Asserts Hong Kong Judiciary is 'Profoundly Compromised'

The U.N. Security Council passed a resolution supporting the U.S.-drafted Israel-Hamas hostage-cease-fire deal with 14 votes in favor and Russia abstaining, NBC News reported on June 10.

U.S., Israel: U.N. Security Council Passes U.S.-Backed Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire Resolution

Pakistan

The Pakistani government is set to begin discussions for its July 2024-June 2025 budget on June 12, Dawn reported on June 10. 

Pakistan: Government To Commence Budget Discussions Amid IMF Negotiations

In the coming years, rising nationalist and anti-globalization ideologies will likely lead to heightened geopolitical competition and trade/technological fragmentation that will impact relations between countries.

Can Globalization Survive in an Increasingly Fragmented World?

A Palestinian demonstrator waves a flag during confrontations with Israeli troops Jan. 6, 2023, in the West Bank village of Kfar Qaddum, near the Jewish settlement of Kedumim. A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

A lack of progress toward a Palestinian state guarantees a resurgence of violence even as Israel establishes a new security paradigm in Gaza. 

The Distant Prospect of a Palestinian State

South Korea's military activated propaganda loudspeakers near the North Korean border on June 9 but ceased broadcasting the next day, with the Joint Chiefs of Staff stating that broadcasts could continue depending on Pyongyang's actions, Yonhap News Agency reported on June 10.

South Korea: War of Words and Garbage Intensifies at the Border

Benny Gantz, an Israeli War Cabinet member and leader of the center-right National Unity Party, announced his and his party's withdrawal from the Israeli emergency wartime government, The Washington Post reported on June 9.

Israel: Benny Gantz and National Unity Party Leave Emergency Wartime Government

Mexico's National Electoral Institute, or INE, announced that the ruling Morena party and its allies won 83 seats in the Senate, just two below the 85 required for a two-thirds majority needed to change the constitution, Reuters reported on June 9.

Mexico: Morena Lacks Supermajority in Senate but Remains Set on Constitutional Reforms

Finland

Sweden

Turkey

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 7, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 23, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Sept. 9, 2019

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan's strategic location and natural resources make it of significant interest to external powers, including Russia, China, and the United States.

The Fight for Russia’s Borderlands

Stratfor explains Uzbekistan's struggle to maintain internal unity while balancing against its regional neighbors and external powers.

Uzbekistan's Geographic Challenge

Global Perspectives

Iraq

Partner Perspectives

More than 4,500 American service members have been killed in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Security issues and conditions in Iraq will dictate whether U.S. forces will remain and, if so, what will be their size and mission.

The United States does not have attractive options as far as its military presence in Iraq, but it has workable ones to achieve its strategic and security goals.

To Leave or Not to Leave: The U.S. Security Dilemma in Iraq

Contributor Perspectives

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un faces a stark and narrow choice between denuclearizing or learning to accept China's growing control over his country.

By testing ICBMs and powerful nuclear weapons, the North Korean leader has placed himself in a strategic trap that threatens to leave his country at China's mercy.

In South Korea, Yoon's Desire for Supply Chains and Prestige Points to Africa

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Brazil: Pushback to New Economic Policy Highlights Lula's Political Obstables

South Africa: Zuma's MK Party Threatens To Block First Sitting of Parliament

China, Thailand, Laos: Thailand To Integrate Laos-China High-Speed Rail With National Network

India: Modi Begins Third Term, Appoints Cabinet Ministers

Hong Kong: U.K. Judge Asserts Hong Kong Judiciary is 'Profoundly Compromised'

U.S., Israel: U.N. Security Council Passes U.S.-Backed Israel-Hamas Cease-Fire Resolution

Pakistan: Government To Commence Budget Discussions Amid IMF Negotiations

South Korea: War of Words and Garbage Intensifies at the Border

Israel: Benny Gantz and National Unity Party Leave Emergency Wartime Government

Mexico: Morena Lacks Supermajority in Senate but Remains Set on Constitutional Reforms

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