Assessments

Guyana

A picture of the National Assembly building in Georgetown, Guyana, taken on Sept. 23, 2022.

Economics

Energy

Military & Security

Politics

No matter who wins Guyana's Sept. 1 election, the next administration will use oil revenue and foreign investment to increase social spending and infrastructure development.

Guyana's Election: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Global Elections

Spain

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez addresses lawmakers during a plenary session at the Spanish parliament in Madrid on July 9, 2025. 

The prime minister's Socialist-led government will likely survive in the short term, but ongoing policy paralysis, corruption scandals and public discontent could trigger early elections, potentially bringing the far right to power.

Sanchez's Mounting Political Challenges Spell Trouble for Spain

United States

Iran

South Korea

Taiwan

Thailand

Germany

France

United Kingdom

The Maanshan nuclear power plant is seen next to a beach in Pingtung, in southern Taiwan, on April 29, 2025.

A look at what the coming week will bring -- and a list of recommended RANE articles from the week that was.

The Weekly Rundown: Iran Meets With European Powers, Taiwan Holds a Nuclear Referendum

Stay informed about the significant meetings and events RANE analysts are tracking.

Geopolitical Calendar

Snapshots

Bangladesh

Supporters of Bangladesh's Jamaat-e-Islami party wave the national flag in Dhaka during a rally held to call for the introduction of a proportional representation system in the country's forthcoming general election on July 19, 2025. 

While delays remain possible, the interim government will likely hold elections in February 2026 as promised, paving the way for a functioning parliament and the implementation of key reforms.

A Set Election Date Eases Political Uncertainty in Bangladesh

Saudi Arabia

Saudi Mining and Industry Minister Bandar Al-Khorayef addresses the Future Mineral Forum in Riyadh on Jan. 10, 2024. 

Despite recent deals, the kingdom's mining sector will struggle to secure the level of investment needed to accomplish its Vision 2030 goals, though certain minerals adjacent to oil production, like lithium, are poised for greater growth.

The Challenges and Opportunities in Saudi Arabia's Mining Sector

Central African Republic

Rwanda

Russia

Members of the Unity for Peace in the Central African Republic (UPC) rebel group gather at the DDR (disarmament, demobilization and reintegration) site in Maloum, the Central African Republic, on July 24. 2025.

The dissolution of key rebel groups and the reintegration of ex-fighters could stabilize the country after years of conflict, but the process will remain fragile amid funding challenges and potential attacks from non-signatories.

Central African Republic's New Peace Deal Holds Promise, but Challenges Persist

Tracking U.S. Naval Power

This map shows the approximate locations of U.S. Carrier Strike Groups and Amphibious Ready Groups.

U.S. Naval Update Map: Aug. 21, 2025

Israel

Syria

Turkey

A tank is seen during Turkey's International Defense Industry Fair on July 22, 2024, in Istanbul.

Turkey's push to improve its air defenses in Syria amid Israel's ongoing aerial campaign raises the risk of tactical incidents and a brief crisis, although a larger conflict remains unlikely.

In Syria, Turkey and Israel's Parallel Deployments Heighten Flashpoint Risks

Bahrain

Kuwait

Oman

Qatar

United Arab Emirates

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Secretary-General Jassim al-Budaiwi and the foreign ministers from the six GCC countries (Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates) pose for a group photo during the GCC foreign minister meeting in Kuwait City on June 2, 2025.

Despite global economic uncertainty and oil price volatility, Gulf Arab states are expected to sustain solid economic growth, driven by strong fundamentals, substantial buffers and ongoing diversification efforts.

Solid Fundamentals Shield GCC Economies From Global Volatility

Europe

Eurasia

Ukraine

Trump and Zelensky at the White House West Wing in Washington, DC, on August 18, 2025.

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Even as President Trump floats the possibility of a trilateral summit with Putin and Zelensky, a breakthrough in negotiations is unlikely given the Kremlin's noncommittal response to the Aug. 18 White House talks. 

Despite Flurry of U.S. Diplomacy, a Ukraine Peace Deal Will Remain Elusive

Columns

On Geopolitics

A person holds a smartphone showing an interface introducing OpenAI's new GPT-5 model in the ChatGPT app in front of a blurred OpenAI logo on Aug. 9, 2025, in Chongqing, China. 

Environment, Science & Technology

Despite users' disappointment with the lack of conversational improvements, GPT-5 signifies a shift in AI development from basic chatbots to more advanced agentic systems, capable of complex, multi-step tasks.

GPT-5 and the Evolution of AI

Latest

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks after the Presidential Cabinet meeting on May 12, 2025, in Istanbul, Turkey.

The process remains fragile amid the risk of stalled progress on the PKK's disarmament, the lingering threat of Kurdish militant attacks, and the potential for empty government promises.

Threats to the Turkish-Kurdish Peace Process

Norway

The building housing Norway's parliament is seen on May 17, 2025, in Oslo.

The Sept. 8 vote could result in another left-wing coalition focused on welfare and climate, a right-wing coalition focused on tax cuts and oil production, or perhaps even an unprecedented grand coalition between the country's two largest parties.

Norway's Legislative Elections: Potential Outcomes and Their Implications

Myanmar

A photo taken on Jan. 11, 2022, shows soldiers from the Taaung National Liberation Army (TNLA), a Palaung ethnic armed group, gathering in Myanmar's northern Shan state.

The junta's recent announcements portend intensified violence ahead of what will be highly controlled elections, which will further fragment the war-torn nation but may also help ease its international isolation.

Myanmar's Elections and the Military's Quest for Legitimacy

French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou speaks during a press conference in Paris on Aug. 25, 2025. 

In the likely case that the Prime Minister Bayrou loses the Sept. 8 vote, Macron will either have to appoint another weak government or call early legislative elections, prolonging political instability and heightening financial risks.

New Political Crisis Grips France as Bayrou Gambles on Confidence Vote

India

Workers at the Samsung plant in Sriperumbudur, India, stage a protest to demand higher wages and recognition of their union on Sept. 11, 2024. 

The labor reforms, aimed at streamlining regulations and attracting investment, face significant delays and uneven implementation due to political resistance, trade union opposition and state-level administrative challenges.

India's Labor Codes: Challenges to Nationwide Adoption

China

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during the "Winning the AI Race" summit hosted by All‑In Podcast and Hill & Valley Forum at the Andrew W. Mellon Auditorium on July 23, 2025, in Washington, D.C. 

Relaxed U.S. export controls on key semiconductors will enable Chinese companies to accelerate their advancement of AI-focused chips.

How U.S. Export Concessions Could Boost China's AI Ambitions

U.S.-China Relations

U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin arrive at a press conference after their summit on July 16, 2018, in Helsinki, Finland.

The meeting risks sidelining Ukraine and enabling Russia to delay sanctions, consolidate battlefield gains, and advance its strategic interests through a U.S.-Russia peace framework.

What To Expect From the Upcoming Trump-Putin Summit

Maldives

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) shakes hands with Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu upon meeting in Male on July 25, 2025. 

Improving relations will strengthen India's strategic foothold in the Indian Ocean, while granting the Maldives access to crucial financial support.

Modi Resets Ties With the Maldives After Its 'India Out' Campaign

Morocco

A researcher from the International Center for Agricultural Research in Dry Areas (ICARDA) examines crops in a cultivated field in Morocco on April 18, 2024.

Despite a temporary boost in crop yields from spring rainfall, Morocco's persistent drought and structural water shortages continue to threaten its agricultural sector, food security and economic stability ahead of the 2026 elections.

Rainfall Boosts Morocco's Crop Yields, But Long-Term Water Crisis Persists

Cote d'Ivoire

Ivory Coast President Alassane Ouattara arrives at the Ebimpe Olympic Stadium on June 22, 2025, in Abidjan. 

President Ouattara's decision to seek a fourth term in Cote d'Ivoire's upcoming election, amid leading opposition candidates' inability to run, is fueling rising political tensions and increasing the risk of a post-election crisis.

Cote d'Ivoire Gears Up for a Heated Election Season 

South Sudan

Chad

Ethiopia

Somalia

Sudan

Uganda

Shipping containers are offloaded from a vessel at Berbera Port in Somaliland on Aug. 31, 2021.   (ED RAM/AFP via Getty Images)

The UAE is expanding its influence across East Africa through large-scale investments and security partnerships, aiming to consolidate its status as a global trade hub and counter regional competitors, at the risk of entangling regional states in broader geopolitical contests.

The UAE's Long Game in East Africa

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to reporters near Air Force One at the airport in Allentown, Pennsylvania, on Aug. 3, 2025. Trump answered questions about his upcoming meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, among other topics. 

While the Trump administration's outreach to Russia may yield limited cooperation, a comprehensive ''reset'' is unlikely for the foreseeable future due to Moscow and Washington's diverging strategic interests.

Can Trump Reset U.S.-Russia Relations?

U.S. President Donald Trump (left) and Russian President Vladimir Putin pose ahead of a meeting in Helsinki, Finland, on July 16, 2018. 

As Putin and Trump prepare to meet in Alaska, the main risk for Ukraine is a U.S.-Russia deal that cements major territorial losses while offering weak security guarantees, leaving it vulnerable to future Russian aggression.

Putin-Trump Summit: The Risks for Ukraine

On Security

Mexico

DEA New York special agent in charge speaks to the press in New York City on Feb. 28, 2025, after the former leader of a brutal Mexican cartel, Rafael Caro Quintero, described by the White House as the world's ''most evil'' drug boss, pleaded not guilty to narcotics charges in New York.

Despite the political and diplomatic risks, Trump is more likely than not to launch some direct operations against Mexican cartels before he leaves office, potentially ranging from light and sporadic U.S. drone strikes to more extensive ground operations.

The Outlook for Trump's 'War' on Mexican Cartels

Lithuania

Finland

Latvia

Denmark

Estonia

Sweden

Poland

Belarus

A view in Rostock, Germany, of the first exit of warships for the NATO exercise BALTOPS in the Baltic Sea on June 5, 2025. 

In response to Russian aggression, NATO is seeking to establish strategic control over the Baltic Sea via rearmament and more assertive posturing, creating an environment where the risk of miscalculation grows exponentially.

Baltic on the Brink: The New Flashpoint in Europe's Confrontation With Russia

U.S. Army soldiers prepare to go out on patrol from a remote combat outpost in northeastern Syria on May 25, 2021. 

The U.S. is shifting its Syria strategy from isolation to limited engagement to stabilize the country and protect American interests there, but Turkey and Israel's competing influence campaigns could complicate Washington's approach.

In Post-Assad Syria, the U.S. Struggles to Find a New Strategy

Vehicles drive along a main thoroughfare past a billboard that reads in Farsi and Hebrew: "A severe blow... The vile and villainous Zionist regime (Israel) has made a grave mistake,” in central Tehran on June 24, 2025. 

Israel-Hamas Conflict

The war has weakened Iran, but has also shifted regional perceptions of Israel as a destabilizing force, prompting Gulf states to reassess alliances, Turkey to emerge as a rival, and raising the risk of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.

Assessing the Regional Impact of the Israel-Iran War, Part 2

Moldova

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk visited Chisinau, Moldova, pledging to support President Maia Sandu and Moldova's EU path, Reuters reported on Aug. 27.

Moldova: European Leaders Back Sandu in Preelection Visit, Warn Against Kremlin Meddling

U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to double tariffs on Indian goods, raising them to as high as 50%, took effect as scheduled on Aug. 27, Reuters reported the same day.

U.S., India: 50% U.S. Tariffs Hit India

Burkina Faso

On the night of Aug. 24-25, unidentified armed men from neighboring Burkina Faso attacked the Ivorian border town of Difita in Tehini department, marking the first deadly assault in Cote d'Ivoire linked to jihadist activity since 2021, Jeune Afrique reported on Aug. 26. 

Cote d'Ivoire: Four Killed and One Missing in Attack Near Burkinabe Border

Science & Technology

Japan

On Sept. 2, Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, or LDP, will begin procedures for a vote on whether to hold an early election for the party's president, a post currently held by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Jiji Press reported on Aug. 27.

Japan: Vote on Prime Minister's Fate Could Supercharge Nationalism, Spending

Syrian interim President Ahmad al-Sharaa ruled out joining the Abraham Accords and normalizing ties with Israel, Anadolu Agency reported on Aug. 26.

Syria, Israel: Al-Sharaa Rules Out Joining Abraham Accords

Argentina

The Central Bank of Argentina raised the percentage of deposits that banks must hold in reserve to meet liabilities if withdrawals suddenly increase, Reuters reported on Aug. 26.

Argentina: Higher Reserve Requirements To Limit Inflation, Increase Credit Costs, Curb Economic Activity

Iraq

U.S.-Iran Relations

A controversial Iraqi law that would have integrated the Iranian-backed, mostly Shiite paramilitary Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) into the military was withdrawn from parliament, Shafaq News reported on Aug. 27.

Iraq: Government Withdraws Paramilitary Law Under External Pressure

Netherlands

Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof's government will face a no-confidence motion on Aug. 27 submitted a day earlier by the pro-minority rights DENK party leader Stephan van Baarle over what the party views as the government’s overly soft stance on Israel, Bloomberg reported the same day.  

Netherlands: Minority Caretaker Government Faces No-Confidence Vote

U.S. President Donald Trump arrives to speak during a rally at a steel plant in West Mifflin, Pennsylvania, on May 30, 2025. 

Global Trade

For the rest of his term, Trump will continue to use tariffs to secure foreign policy concessions on both trade and non-trade matters, even if he starts shifting away from broad, global tariff threats to ones focused on specific countries or goods. 

A Look at Trump's Evolving Tariff Strategy

Lebanon

Yemen

An Iranian flag is draped from a building damaged during a recent attack by Israel is seen in the Gisha neighborhood of Tehran, Iran, on June 25, 2025. 

The brief war with Israel has significantly weakened Iran's regional influence and military capabilities, forcing it and the members of its Axis of Resistance to recalibrate their strategies and focus on recovery.

The Impact of the 12-Day War on Iran and Its Allies, Part 1

Cyber

Stanford researchers found in a study published Aug. 26 that employment for younger workers in artificial intelligence-exposed roles has dropped by 16% since late 2022. 

Cyberspace: Study Finds AI Has Sizable Impact on Reducing Hiring for Entry-Level Workers

Indian refiners, including Reliance Industries and other state-run and private companies, plan to scale back Russian crude imports to around 1.4 million-1.6 million barrels per day from October, down from the roughly 1.8 million bpd daily average seen in the first half of the year, Bloomberg reported on Aug. 26.

U.S., India: India To Slightly Scale Back Russian Oil Imports Ahead of Rising U.S. Tariffs

Media

Videos

Why is Turkey blocking Finland's and Sweden's accession to NATO?

Essential Geopolitics: Why Turkey Is Blocking NATO From Bringing in Sweden and Finland

Algeria

Broken Contracts in the Middle East

Stratfor Middle East and North Africa Analyst Emily Hawthorne updates the political and economic situation in Algeria.

Essential Geopolitics: An Update on Algeria

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 21, 2019

Three Geopolitical Events in the Week Ahead • Oct. 14, 2019

In this short video Middle East and North Africa Analyst Ryan Bohl discusses three events to watch for this week.

Threats to the Turkish-Kurdish Peace Process

Latest

SITUATION REPORTS

Moldova: European Leaders Back Sandu in Preelection Visit, Warn Against Kremlin Meddling

U.S., India: 50% U.S. Tariffs Hit India

Cote d'Ivoire: Four Killed and One Missing in Attack Near Burkinabe Border

Japan: Vote on Prime Minister's Fate Could Supercharge Nationalism, Spending

Syria, Israel: Al-Sharaa Rules Out Joining Abraham Accords

Argentina: Higher Reserve Requirements To Limit Inflation, Increase Credit Costs, Curb Economic Activity

Iraq: Government Withdraws Paramilitary Law Under External Pressure

Netherlands: Minority Caretaker Government Faces No-Confidence Vote

Cyberspace: Study Finds AI Has Sizable Impact on Reducing Hiring for Entry-Level Workers

U.S., India: India To Slightly Scale Back Russian Oil Imports Ahead of Rising U.S. Tariffs

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