Japan’s population shrank by 0.7 percent in 2023, although the net loss of 861,237 included a record high inflow of 329,535 foreign nationals.

The non-Japanese segment of the population hit its highest level yet, but the birthrate continued to slow and areas such as the northeastern prefectures of Tohoku suffered heavy losses. Only Tokyo eked out an increase in population.

As of Jan. 1, 2024, the total population was 121,561,801, according to data released by the internal affairs ministry on July 24. The figures are taken from the government’s basic resident register.

The annual shrinkage was the greatest fall since the survey began in 1968.

The population shrank in the three major metropolitan areas--Tokyo, Kansai and Nagoya--although the city of Tokyo saw an increase for the first time in three years, driven by people moving to the capital from elsewhere in Japan.

Meanwhile, the population of foreign nationals living in Japan increased by 329,535 to 3,323,374. The figure exceeded 3 million for the first time since such data became available in 2013.

Japan’s population peaked in 2009 and has since declined for 15 consecutive years.

At the trend’s core is a declining birthrate. This continues to accelerate. The number of births recorded during the past year was 729,367, down 42,434 from the previous year, and the lowest on record.

On the other hand, there was a record number of deaths, 1,579,727. This figure was up 14,602 from the previous year.

The rate of natural increase, or the difference between births and deaths, was a negative of 850,360.

LABOR SHORTAGE

As the birthrate slows, so does the net addition of working-age people to the workforce. The number of people aged between 15 and 64 was 71,741,119, down 521,056 from the previous year.

This figure is only slightly over double the number of people aged 65 and upward. This cohort is typically retired and therefore dependent on the working population for social security. The number of elderly was 3,571,738, up 26,355 from the previous year.

In other words, 29.38 percent of Japan’s population is elderly.

By prefecture, the population of Tokyo increased by 3,933, or 0.03 percent, from the previous year. Tokyo was the only administrative area where the population increased.

The largest factor for this was so-called social growth, or a net inflow of people relocating to Tokyo from elsewhere in Japan.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Tokyo’s inflow slowed. But it is now accelerating again.

However, the population of the Tokyo metropolitan area, which includes neighboring Saitama, Chiba and Kanagawa prefectures, declined 0.19 percent. It was the third consecutive year of decline.

The Kansai metropolitan area also saw a 0.63 percent decrease. The Nagoya metropolitan area saw a 0.71 percent decrease. These declines show no sign of slowing.

Of all 47 prefectures, Akita lost the most people, down 1.83 percent from the previous year.

Aomori Prefecture saw a 1.72 percent decrease from the previous year, and Iwate Prefecture saw a 1.61 percent decrease.

TOKYO GROWTH

One part of Tokyo is a case study in how to attract people.

Of all cities and wards, Taito Ward topped the list of population growth in 2023.

Taito is known internationally for its tourism attractions. It is where the famed sightseeing spot Asakusa is located. Asakusa gives visitors a glimpse of a “shitamachi” traditional neighborhood where old traditions thrive and residents are long term.

In recent years, Taito has been the location for redevelopment. A slew of high-rise condominiums has appeared around Ueno Station.

And key to drawing residents is the cost. Real estate prices in the ward are low for central Tokyo, said Masayuki Takahashi, a chief researcher at Tokyo Kantei Co., a real estate research firm.

The price per tsubo in Taito is less than half of those in the adjacent Chuo and Chiyoda wards, Takahashi said.

“It is close to the office districts of Marunouchi and Shinagawa,” he said. “Redevelopment has changed the ward’s image. Young families are purchasing condominiums that are relatively inexpensive.”

In the meantime, affluent people are contributing to population growth in the city’s Minato and Chuo wards.

Minato Ward had the second highest population growth, with a 1.14 percent increase. Chuo Ward placed third with 1.04 percent increase.

Both wards have had big-ticket construction of ultra-high-priced condominiums, for which there is strong demand by affluent buyers, Takahashi said.

Meanwhile, another reason for population growth is the need for well remunerated labor.

Of all towns and villages in Japan, the ski resort village of Akaigawa in Hokkaido had the highest rate of population growth. The population of the village increased by 22.33 percent, thanks in part to foreign nationals.

Hotels in the village have seasonal demand for labor. They hired more than 200 foreign employees during the busy winter season, a town official said.

The official underscored that this seasonal growth does not fix the long-term problem of shrinkage. That is a different issue, the official said, and remains a challenge.

(This article was written by Takuro Chiba and Shohei Sasagawa.)