Markets at a glance

In August 2024, global temperatures reached record highs for the 15th consecutive month. Favourable rainfall improved wheat prospects in Australia, while excessive wet weather caused harvest delays in Canada. Despite improvements in Panama Canal crossings, low water levels in the Mississippi River disrupted supply chains, complicating exports of maize and soybeans in particular via the US Gulf. Reflecting weather-influenced market fundamentals, the export prices for wheat, maize, and soybeans all increased in September, though they remained below their levels from a year earlier. Rice prices stayed softer. Fertilizer markets, generally well-supplied, anticipate seasonally increased activity in the last quarter of the year. In September, India lifted its 14-month export ban on non-basmati rice, replacing it with a minimum export price.

• Wheat production in 2024 forecast raised on a higher forecast for Australia and now rests 0.5 percent above last year's level.
• Utilization in 2024/25 up marginally m/m but still set to decrease by 0.6 percent below the 2023/24 level owing to lower feed and other uses.
• Trade in 2024/25 (July/June) scaled down due to a downgrade in the EU's export forecast and slightly smaller expected purchases by several importers.
• Stocks (ending in 2025) raised on higher stock estimates in Australia, the EU and Ukraine, now marginally above opening levels.

• Maize production forecast for 2024 lowered, almost exclusively in the EU where adverse weather conditions diminished yield prospects, and now 1.4 percent below the 2023 level.
• Utilization in 2024/25 raised marginally on higher anticipated utilization in Argentina, bringing the forecast to 1.1 percent above the 2023/24 level.
• Trade in 2024/25 (July/June) boosted by stronger import demand anticipated for the EU and larger sales by Brazil, but still forecast 3.8 percent lower than in 2023/24.
• Stocks (ending in 2025) lowered with cuts in the EU inventory forecasts, as well as smaller downward revisions in Argentina, China, and the US, but still up from opening levels.

• Rice production upgraded, as improved output prospects for India overshadow downgrades for various other countries, most notably for Myanmar.
• Utilization in 2024/25 raised to a fresh peak, amid more buoyant expectations for food and non-food uses.
• Trade in 2024 still expected to decline for the second successive year. However, it could recover by 4.1 percent y/y in 2025, with a revival in imports by Near East Asian and African countries seen spearheading the trade upturn.
• Stocks (2024/25 carry-outs) lifted, as an upward revision for India offsets some downward adjustments for various other countries, most notably Madagascar, Myanmar and Thailand.

• Soybean 2024/25 production revised up marginally m/m, primarily underpinned by expectations of larger output in Argentina.
• Utilization in 2024/25 revised up, largely reflecting higher crushing forecasts for Argentina and China, more than offsetting downward revisions mainly for Brazil.
• Trade in 2024/25 (Oct/Sep) lifted on projections of higher import purchases by Argentina, China and the EU, while export forecasts are raised across major exporters in the Americas.
• Stocks (2024/25 carry-out) upgraded further to potentially new highs, mostly reflecting an upward revision for China following import adjustments.