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Fed Keeps Rates Steady and Forecasts Only One Cut in 2024

Federal Reserve officials had initially predicted three rate cuts for the year. Earlier, inflation data for May came in cooler than expected.

 

Watch With Analysis
Updates From Reporters
Jason Karaian
Jason Karaian
The “dot plot” of interest-rate projections is a major topic here. You can see in the chart that the middle projection now suggests just one quarter-point cut by the end of the year, and several more in 2025.
Ben Casselman
Ben Casselman
Turning to monetary policy, Powell says Fed officials still “need to see more good data to bolster our confidence” that inflation is returning to their 2 percent target before they will decide it is time to cut rates.
Jeanna Smialek
Jeanna Smialek
Powell notes that inflation readings have “eased somewhat” more recently. That’s hardly exuberant, given how cool this morning’s C.P.I. looked. It seems like the Fed is striking a very cautious note and avoiding declaring victory.
Lydia DePillis
Lydia DePillis
Powell makes a notable observation about labor markets: That they have returned to about where they stood right before the pandemic. “Relatively tight, but not overheated.”
Ben Casselman
Ben Casselman
Powell notes that the economy as a whole remains solid. “Growth in consumer spending has slowed from last year’s robust pace but remains solid.”
Lydia DePillis
Lydia DePillis
With the seventh straight hold, we’re coming up on a year since the Fed last moved rates. The period from August 2006 to July 2007 is still the longest period over which the federal funds rate has been steady after a hiking cycle.

This is how interest rates affect savers and borrowers.

5 min read

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Southern Baptists Reject Tighter Ban on Women in Pastoral Posts

The church will not add language to its constitution saying “only men” could be affirmed “as any kind of pastor or elder as qualified by Scripture.”

4 min read

Convention delegates, seen from the rear, holding voting cards in the air.

Why Senate Democrats Are Outperforming President Biden in Key States

Democrats have leads in battleground states, but strategists aligned with both parties caution that the fight for Senate control is just starting.

7 min read

Senator Tammy Baldwin, wearing a denim shirt, stands in front of a building on a dairy farm in rural Wisconsin.

The House will vote on whether to hold Attorney General Merrick Garland in contempt.

3 min read

A Senate matchup is set in the battleground state of Nevada.

 

Jerry West, One of Basketball’s Greatest Players, Dies at 86

He was a sharpshooting, high-scoring Hall of Fame guard for the Lakers and later an executive with the team. His silhouette became the N.B.A.’s logo.

10 min read

  1. 1972
    Jerry West dribbling past Walt Frazier of the Knicks during a game at Madison Square Garden.
    The New York Times
  2. 1958
    West playing for West Virginia against George Washington University.
    Harvey Georges/Associated Press
  3. 1976
    West, center, when he was a rookie coach of the Lakers.
    Robert Lachman/Los Angeles Times, via Getty Images
  4. 2011
    West being introduced as a new member of the Golden State Warriors’ Executive Board.
    Eric Risberg/Associated Press
  5. 2019
    Donald Trump presenting West with the Presidential Medal of Freedom in the Oval Office.
    Alex Brandon/Associated Press

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White House Aide Does Not Say if Biden Would Commute Son’s Sentence

Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, said she had not spoken with President Biden about the matter yet.

2 min read

President Biden speaks to Hunter Biden while he comforts a child.

Content on Hunter Biden’s laptop, revealed by The New York Post, came back to haunt him.

3 min read

U.S. Expands Sanctions on Russia as G7 Leaders Gather

The Biden administration is taking new measures to stop China from helping Russia sustain the war. U.S. officials hope European nations will follow.

4 min read

Defiant Macron Predicts Chaos if France Succumbs to Extremes

President Emmanuel Macron called on people of good will to come together to defend the Republic in the snap election he decided to call.

5 min read

The French president standing, gesturing with one hand.

In Wake of Election Defeat, Germany’s Weakened Leader Will Slog On

Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his governing coalition emerged battered from the vote for the European Parliament. But a snap election seems unlikely.

4 min read

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The Great Read

The Rage, Secrecy and Pain of a Family Torn Apart by Addiction

A Delaware family sees itself in the Hunter Biden story.

10 min read

Kim Jones sits in her living room covered in shadows. She wears a yellow t-shirt and jeans.

LIVE

Blinken Calls Some Hamas Changes to Cease-Fire Proposal ‘Unacceptable’

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. would keep pushing Israel and Hamas “on an urgent basis” to reach a deal.

 

A Palestinian Professor Spoke Out Against the War. Israel Detained Her.

The investigation has prompted a debate inside Israel about the repression of free speech and academic freedoms since the war began.

6 min read

A woman dressed in a denim shirt stands in a defendant’s box flanked by a man and a woman in uniform.

Françoise Hardy, Moody French Pop Star, Dies at 80

With hit songs and an understated personality, she incarnated a 1960s cool still treasured by the French.

1 min read

Françoise Hardy holds a guitar and smiles, her long hair falling over her shoulders.

Françoise Hardy entranced generations of listeners. Here are some of her songs.

3 min read

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Saudi Arabia’s Next Billion-Dollar Sports Play: A Boxing Takeover

A proposal awaiting financing would attempt to bring together dozens of the world’s best boxers in a single, Saudi-run pro league.

5 min read

Two boxers fighting in a ring.

All in the Details: Tony-Nominated Set Designers on Getting It Right

For this year’s nominees, some of their most rewarding — and realistic — work was in the smaller details.

7 min read

A scene from the play “Jaja’s African Hair Braiding” shows a rectangular set underneath a projection of city buildings.

In “Mother Play,” featuring Jessica Lange, Paula Vogel conjured warm and thorny memories to understand a difficult parent.

7 min read

More Top Stories

Oklahoma Supreme Court Dismisses Tulsa Massacre Lawsuit

The court affirmed a lower court’s dismissal, bringing to an end a suit brought by the last known survivors of the 1921 attack by a white mob.

3 min read

Viola Ford Fletcher and Lessie Benningfield, the last two known survivors of the Tulsa Race Massacre, sit next to each other.

A Public Housing Playground Barred Outsiders. Neighbors Objected.

Signs at Wise Towers say the playground is only for residents. There have been tense encounters with neighbors on the wealthy, liberal Upper West Side.

5 min read

3 Days in Space Were Enough to Change 4 Astronauts’ Bodies and Minds

An examination found that they experienced modest declines in cognitive tests, stressed immune systems and genetic changes within their cells.

5 min read

Tesla Investors to Decide if Elon Musk Deserves $45 Billion Payday

The vote is seen as a referendum on the limits of executive pay and the accountability of Silicon Valley billionaires.

6 min read

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Opinion

Maureen Dowd

Maureen Dowd

Go Slow, Joe

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Thomas B. Edsall

Thomas B. Edsall

Trump Would Be Long Gone if Only We Could …

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Bret Stephens

The Most Courageous Thing That Joe Biden Can Do

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Jessica Grose

Jessica Grose

Young Women Are Fleeing Organized Religion. This Was Predictable.

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Paul Krugman and Peter Coy

Is America Getting Interest Rates Wrong?

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David Quammen

Our Desire for Inexpensive Food Is Putting Us in Danger

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A tiny plastic cow.
David Wallace-Wells

David Wallace-Wells

If Not in New York, Then Where?

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Mairav Zonszein

Israel’s North Is Burning

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The MorningNewsletter

The Force Shaping Western Politics

We explain why immigration is affecting European and U.S. politics, and what may happen next.

8 min read

A dark yellow circle against a light yellow background with the words "The Morning" written in black on the top left.

Let’s Talk About Hollywood Portrayals of Asians

Tell us your thoughts, and how those portrayals may have affected your romantic life.

2 min read

In a scene from “Crazy Rich Asians,” Henry Golding, wearing a navy suit and a white shirt with the top button undone, sits at a bar talking to Constance Wu, who faces him.

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Eric Adams Praised a Reporter’s Body. It Wasn’t His First Such Remark.

Mayor Eric Adams of New York told a journalist that it looked like he was working out and complimented his “summer body.”

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Miami President Named as Next U.C.L.A. Chancellor

Julio Frenk, who has led the University of Miami since 2015, will take over the elite Los Angeles school that has been rocked by protests this spring.

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Ancient Genomes Reveal Which Children the Maya Selected for Sacrifice

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Student Loan Bills Will Drop for Many, but There’s a Hiccup

The Education Department has not finished recalculating payments for millions of borrowers, forcing loan servicers to put many loans into forbearance.

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