lysergik

lysergik Updated 

We have broken above our daily 3-point bearish trend resistance (in green) and sustained price action above it. We have done so after testing a bounce off the long-term weekly trend POC (in red). Together these observations indicate to me a greater than 70% chance that we see continued bullish price-action, after creating our first local higher-low on the...

lysergik Updated 

We have met a very strong trend line going back to December 2022 (red dotted trend line), and the bearish impulse is likely to retrace to retest 60-62k over the next week, maybe two. This could match up nicely with a test of my moving average range on the 4h. If it continues much higher and then creates a higher low thereafter, we can expect a continuation of our...

lysergik Updated 

We are once again testing this rather steep bullish impulse's trend support at the same time as we interact with historically significant moving averages displayed on my chart. If we sustain price action below it, we could see a push back down to range support around 60k-62k over the next week or two. We may have to see a topping pattern before we make a local...

lysergik Updated 

We are testing the 50 SMA on the 1-hour as local support. Based on the recent head and shoulders, we are likely to see a deeper pullback creating a lower-low, possibly around the 1.618 fib extension shown on this chart. After which I would expect a likely lower-high leading into a bottom formation in consolidation and then eventual bullish continuation of the...

lysergik

The market is current in a bull flag consolidation. However are we are a bit overdue for a proper bear-trap / trend support retest. If the bull-flag fails to break-out in the next week or 2, it will likely create go down at least another 5% if not restest 35-36k or lower in a wick possibly.

lysergik Updated 

As bitcoin continues up we can see that, locally, volatility is increasing over the last 24h. Whether or not we can come down test the 30-32k range of support will depend heavily on our next lower high on the 15m chart. You can easily see the range of support on this Daily chart where the MA's are color-filled: On the 15m I've colored the areas of increasing...

lysergik Updated 

Note: the chart scale for the stablecoin dominance indicator is inverted so that down means down for crypto (up in % for stablecoin dom), and vice versa. Stablecoin dominance is testing the 11.3% to 11.5% inverted-chart support, as shown here: We can watch these levels for indications of which direction the next impulse will go to. The colored arrows are...

lysergik

Bitcoin has formed a local channel where the white rectangle represents the resistance in the local channel and the lower red->green rectangle represents the channel support. Breaking above the resistance should lead to a test of a fib retracement back to 28.6k, from .618 or higher and up to 100% retracement or beyond (leading to a bullish continuation in the...

lysergik Updated 

As exemplified in my previous post we have interacted with and rejected down from the stablecoin dominance resistance after the big bullish impulse. Stablecoin Dom. Daily; from previous post Stablecoin Dom. 1h; As of this post How bitcoin interacts with the green trend support zone and red resistance zone generally marked on this chart should will us prepare...

lysergik Updated 

The next quarter or two for crypto price-action will depend significantly based on how the momentum of the daily aggregated stablecoin dominance develops over the next few weeks in my opinion. I've drawn out three small time-frame (however nonetheless critical) levels here with some general price action examples. I will try to make more detailed updates as new...

lysergik Updated 

Tesla may have met the support that will be the last of its bear market. Based on the bounce so far on the 329-week SMA and that any price action at or below the 200-week SMA has historically been the best times to invest in TESLA, we can assert it's likely now is a decent time to buy TESLA.

lysergik Updated 

My Momentum Master indicator is showing extremely overbought levels on the Monthly, so when the red/white/green histogram falls below 15 it will signal the likely beginning of a tremendous bear market that could last 3-6 years overall. We can see what happened last time this signal occurred on PNE as indicated in my drawings here. Of course based on the previous...

lysergik

The SPY is forming a bearish diamond reversal pattern just below critical trend resistance from the larger trend. If we create a bear-spring pattern at this larger trend resistance marked with the dotted green line, or if we simply reject down from it, then we can assume a high likelihood of breaking the diamond to the downside. Of course, naturally, if we form...

lysergik

Bitcoin may be forming a perfect double bottom pattern such as the one we saw in the 2014 bear-market:

lysergik Updated 

Bitcoin is once again testing the trend support outlined in my previous idea. Another bounce here could easily lead to another bullish-impulse; and a break below it followed by coming back up to test and confirm the new resistance would be a signal for a longer bearish impulse coming for the next few days.

lysergik Updated 

Bitcoin is at a very decisive moment for the short to mid term. I believe a drop below consolidation support on the bigger picture around 18k or what not will be relatively short-lived. Otherwise we may fakeout on a smaller scale and pump sooner rather than later.

lysergik Updated 

Bitcoin has increased in volatility on the daily chart during this consolidation period after the big drop to 18k. This may indicate a big move is coming; a large-scale fakeout or maybe just a large impulse one way or the other. If we can avoid the red zone marked on this chart the bulls would continue to have a good probability to have a bullish impulse out of...

lysergik Updated 

Based on the all-time pattern on the monthly chart, when next bull market would begin is expected to be somewhere in autumn 2022 or winter 2023, approx. The red 'strong counter-momentum' diamonds on Momentum Master have always resulted in at least a %55 drop or more within several monthly candles, and that has already come true this time around as well. This was...