technical view, not macroeconomic or funadamental despite the bounce from monthly bollinger band in 2350 area i see several reasons for termination of bulltrend started 2009 i can't assess it as an impulse, the wave has evident corrective character and to me the best fitting count would be x-wave abc in neely's style, internal structure and extensions support such...
tested longterm upsloping channel together with inner ew targets for last leg c=a of x or w5=w1/w3 outcome is target a/w1=c/w5=2513.89 as minimum eventual bull hype could send index to intermediate line intersection x green parallel around 2750 trade safe all
wave b completed @42, leg c in progress target 58/62 resistance, later 67/82 fork median trade safe all
Seems to me dollar is set for bigger correction as long trade got too crowded recently. Appropriate development is to be seen in gold btw, where shorts started to cover a little. See several reasons for exhaustion of dollar run and completion of W3 started @72.69: - 103.5 resistance - 103.32 w5=w1 ext target - longterm ascending channel median hit - Wolffe...
subwave 3 of last leg to be finished 61.8 ext of w1/a starting 2009 showed reaction @144.81 full ext w5/c pointing to 179 trade safe all
10918 was 1.414 ext of previous correction and showed nice reaction currently looks like subwave w3 is just about to be completed or little missing and soon we can get retreat before last spike up tgt? who knows? 1.618x @12359, 2x @15k so shortterm looking for short towards 8k then up again trade safe all
hard to imagine this underdog for decades won`t test longterm supply after such a huge breakout 3090 level and pink supply lines currently working on 3325 resistance and imagine if it won`t turn down as most expecting, but, surprisingly, will proceed up... crazy, isnt`t it? trade safe all
wedge/support broken target YS1=123648/.618x=122209 trade safe all
would be shame to miss the last leg of triangle, no matter if corrective B as showed or leading diagonal target around 2270 at intersection of a-c line and W3 topline, green channel is a cap and b-d line is a sell line then trade safe all
Last time i used this resistance (blue) was 2015 as i expected dax breakout and fireworks. Now the same trendline could be the answer WHY is dax not breaking up along with US equities. There is also yearly pivot 10k8 there, completed M topping pattern and red descending channel. Alltogether maybe too much to break.
1-2-3 marked green, .618 test passed Red longterm trendbarrier held Let`s see blue trendline and 86.4/86.7
Supposing downleg from 11k4 is C, in that case we need to see w5 terminal, after completing w4, favourably below 10184 / not more than 10440. I would look for 10080 short, 10184 sl for 1500 pips.
Topping diamond below 18k broken down. Heavy distribution there. So wave B is complete and wave C heading to new lows started. Banks celebrating hike cant hold the broad market decline. Math is math, if yields up, stock prices down. Needs close below 17815.
Sliding down along parallels, from line to line, currently in range. Looking back found reason for tremendous 25 pct shortcovering - red circle at A/R x channel floor. 7/8 parallel has been recently bought too... Above 47 test of 6/8 parallel around 47/48 possible, below 51 shorts favoured.