jvrfxalerts

jvrfxalerts

Hello Traders Happy new trading week. US markets are closed tomorrow, so beware of impulse price movements. I have initiated a long EUR/USD position at 1.0917. I looked at the impulse price movement after the US CPI and weekly jobless claims to determine the reason for the initial price low/high. And not surprisingly, it corresponds to a two day closing level...

jvrfxalerts

Hello traders I did not take a long from 1.0942 as mentioned in my previous idea. I was waiting for USD CPI and jobless claims to print. The knee jerk reaction higher was probably due to a distortion in the jobless numbers caused by the tragic effect of the hurricane/s in the south east. Also, the continued furlough of Boeing workers. A reminder, just like NFP,...

jvrfxalerts

Hello traders. The blowout NFP number has muddied the waters again. Time to recalibrate. More jobs created, higher earnings, lower unemployment rate: all USD positives because the FOMC is now expected to cut only 25basis point on Nov 7th. The "CME FedWatch" now places the probability of a 50 base point cut at 3.8%. Great for the USD but no so great for the...

jvrfxalerts

DISCLAIMER: The opinions expressed in this brief post are entirely my own. It is not intended as a sales pitch or investing advice of any kind. I no longer subscribe to any social media platforms. I do not have the time to engage in and contribute to these platforms. My family and close friends know how to reach me. It does not mean that I do not understand the...

jvrfxalerts

Hello traders. Yes, I have initiated a long position. My second short reached 1.1085 overnight. In hindsight I should have used a trailing stop to bank more pips but a good night's sleep comes first. Price reached several different types of parallel support. *Monthly close August 2024 1.1047 *200D MA 1.1039 *Daily close Sept 3rd which was also a break...

jvrfxalerts

Hello fellow traders Happy Monday or in my case happy Sunday from San Francisco, CA. I would like to start on a deeply personal level. Please indulge me. My current profile picture is of my beloved 12 year old Abyssinian boy, Jagger, who passed after a brief struggle with cancer. It shattered our family, including his little sister, Daisy Duke, who shared her...

jvrfxalerts

Hello traders The range of this most traded pair has been confined between 1.10 and 1.12 for the last twelve trading sessions. A lot of the price action has felt like taking the stairs up and the escalator down during the next session. I apologize if there seems to be a lot going on on the charts but this is the only way I can make sense of what is happening. The...

jvrfxalerts

Hi traders. I have taken a short position after an hourly close below the upper border of the down channel with a very tight stop. This move up has also reset the RSI on the 2 hour chart. The second rate cut by the ECB came as no surprise since the powerhouse, Germany, has not had very good economic prints recently. Inflation has also softened, although Ms....

jvrfxalerts

Hello traders. We may be approaching an important infection point for the USD. I do not necessarily trade any of these assets but I do keep a close eye on FX, gold, stocks, bonds and crypto to gain a better understanding of the current trend and risk appetite. So, where to from here after Chair Powell confirmed that rate cuts are coming? I was slightly surprised...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

Hi traders. I exited my EUR/USD short positions for a modest profit. The price is currently touching the the 7 and 200 MA's at 1.0826/4 with the 10 and 100 MA's just below at 1.0811/12. While I am still bearish EUR/USD, there won't be any definitive outcome until USD GDP and PCE have printed and the finale for the week, EUR CPI. I am considering going long between...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

Hello Traders. This is a follow up to IDEA 18. www.tradingview.com The massive daily doji candle up to 1.0888 makes perfect sense. It retested the 1/24/24 and 1/26/24 daily closes and did not retest the 1.0897 daily close of 1/19/24. I am still short and on the weekly chart, one can see the power of the Fibonacci extension in play. The weekly close is just below...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

Hi traders. This week is definitely not short on developments for the EUR/USD pair. I believe the USD is poised for more gains after today's FOMC January 2024 meeting minutes. The message was clear: the Federal Reserve is very concerned about cutting rates too soon. One may also pose the question whether we may see another wave of inflation with the current...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

Hi traders. my short is in place, albeit underwater. The EuroZone 4th quarter wage index dropped from 4.7-4.5% which gives the ECB some wiggle room before cutting rates. Christine Lagarde pointed to wage inflation as a big concern guiding the rate outlook. I believe she indicated that the Q1 of 2024 will bring them closer to a rate cut or not. This of course...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

Hi fellow traders. With HOT USD CPI and PPI numbers in the rear view mirror, the FOMC minutes from the January will be the highlight this week. It will provide more insight into their individual though processes. However, I do not see any fundamental reason for the downtrend NOT to continue. As mentioned in IDEA 16, I am short at 1.0790 and price exceeded the two...

jvrfxalerts

FOMC Chairman Powell has been clear in his communication that a rate cut is not on the table for March. Where to from here for EUR/USD? The pair has found support and has completed a (sloppy) head and shoulders formation with a double bottom at 1.0723. The weekly uptrend line has been broken but wait for the weekly close to determine direction. Immediate...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

I closed my EUR/USD short for an almost 100 pip profit. www.tradingview.com Price is currently at support of the weekly breakout at 11/13/23. Support is also at the MA10 and the EMA . The 5 minute chart has stabilized with the lower Bollinger band straightening out. Fundamentally, there is an expectation for an increase in the CPI print from 2.4 to 2.9%. The...

jvrfxalerts

I shorted EUR/USD after an 2 hour close below 1.1012(weekly close 12/18/23) with a tight stop at 1.1050. While that level has not been retested on the daily or weekly charts, the subsequent weekly candles have formed an evening star. Support at the uptrend line is at 1.0696. A break and close(pick your own time frame comfort level) could drop price to the MA100...

jvrfxalerts Updated 

Price is right at 100 SMA. Buy with stop below 1.0911. USD retail sales coming up soon and FOMC minutes on Wednesday.