joce-69003

joce-69003 Updated 

Interesting path forward - - Unemployment continuing to rise (according to Schwab model we are in a recession) - Inflation abating to level sub-2.5 (would bring big buyer to the treasury market) - Fed cutting rates into September 2024 and into 2025 resulting in un-inversion of the yield curve. (Historically start of a recession) it's a lot of macros fueling...

joce-69003

Same analysis as ZROZ same pattern possibly forming which again coincide roughly with fed decision timetable. Cup and handle formation. Could see and initial finalizing of the handle which would take us 7% by April. Could see that giving us a bull run to end of May for a 20% total gain... This is not financial advice... it's crystal ball territory. For an...

joce-69003

Following a classic "cup and handle" calculation. We could see this behavior, where we have another 20 to 25% increase in ZROZ. (It could also coincide with Fed decisions dates). This applies to EDV and TLT. Looking at this going much higher about 45% by late October.... quite bold... but !!!

joce-69003 Updated 

I am going to preface this post by saying that it is very difficult to apply technical analysis to TLT since it is so much affect by MACRO events... but.... What we have is a DOJI GAPPING DOWN last friday followed by a SPINNING TO BLACK OR, Arguably Two Spinning top ONE WHITE ONE BLACK if there is a reversal (bear trend up breakout) and it happens 52% of the...

joce-69003 Updated 

Hello TradingView Colleagues. Again posting in all Humility - We are still in a longer term Downtrend. The bounce back to 410 was normal and for me was just a test of that H&S neckline. As noted by most (even in the media) the shorter term trend line formed by June 17th - July 14th and Sept 6th touches was broken to the downside as we created what might be an...

joce-69003

Publishing this chart, I have been wrong on TLT for a while now. although I don't think my charting is completely inaccurate. So I welcome ideas and your opinions if you're willing to share. I believe this is significant time and that we are at the convergence of both technicals and macro factors. Technicals : We are on the support line that was created by...

joce-69003

Alright, interesting candle on the one week on TLT : In my opinion this is a Takuri Line. The body is small and the close happens near the high (I am not 100% satisfied with this classification since it has an upper shadow but it is 16% of overall candle). The lower shadow is more than three times the body length (3.37). So it fits the takuri line definition....

joce-69003 Updated 

Following TLT - I looked at the candlestick formation on the monthly chart and given historicl statistics we apparently have a little bit over 50% chance of a reversal of the downward trend we have experienced so far. If this is the case, we could see $126 over the next 4 weeks based on my calculations. I would be interested to see if you have the same views.

joce-69003

In all humility posting for the first time - and first of all, I want to address a big thank you to all of you who I have followed for a few weeks now. Thank you for posting your ideas and for some of you, taking so much time to explain what you're seeing. OK - I do think that it will be difficult to stop this little bull market before 463. My momentum model...