March 14 = CPI
March 15 = PPI
March 22 = FOMC
March ?? = Shanghai unlock
The rally and top is in for this quarter.
If we look at previous resistance and support levels I think we go to previous lows.
SPY is getting to overbought levels, AAPL has not rallied to the highs yet, if we sell off, AAPL could be the culprit if it goes to 120 right around the earnings
My type of trading works in finding longer term channels that the $SPX will trade in and sell or buy trendlines as we move along into the year. It pays to find these channels early to be able to follow price well. One of these ways that could be worth a shot is connecting the tops and bottom and finding fibonacci levels that make sense based on 2022.
There is a short relief that we are currently experiencing which would confluence to around February 2023 for a bearish USD rally. Then a massive bullish USD move for the next decade. Would work well together with 2020-2030s bear market predictions and a deep and long recession.
What surprises me is that the numbers for DXY are exactly the same as they are now.
tradingeconomics.com
Showing monthly rolling changes for the housing market - which is the first to go.
When it bottoms out and stops dropping over the period, the bear market is over.
Also showing that the 50 monthly moving average will be crossed once, then 3 months later, it will crossover again to continue the second leg down.
Seeing some matching patterns here to put this together.
Up:
1) Going higher than 200 DMA will give bulls hope
2) 50% retrace from bottom lets people think we have finished this bear market
3) Now 80% odds for 50bps
4) Roughly 60 days would be in line + 20% return
5) Favoured seasonality for a Christmas rally
Then down:
6) Everyone forgot about the Strategic...
Increased adoption and hyperbitcoinization seems needed for this. Although it could happen if we ease again into the next decade and dollars become worthless again. Right now it seems bleak but greed will come back in full force as we return to higher highs instead of lower lows.
I think similar to 2000 and 2008 we will see a great bear market where all value is destroyed and we restart anew as we try to regain control of inflation, tightening and something will break.
We will return to all time highs as we embrace AI, automation, mrna and massive growth in India / SEA.
Only to face deeper issues with global warming in parts of Brazil /...
More usage = more burn = less supply = higher price = more usage.
Prepare Ethereum to become entirely unusable for the average person.
This will eventually be bullish for $MATIC and other L2s / ZKRs.
