The_STA

The_STA

While many are attributing the recent sell-off in stock markets to fears of a recession following last week's weak economic data, I believe the bearish trend was already unfolding in the US stock markets. On July 22, 2024, I wrote: "Following Biden’s withdrawal from the US presidential election, a recovery in the US stock markets is anticipated. However, recent...

03:41

The_STA

Today, we're examining the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the EUR/USD daily chart, focusing on the concepts of overbought and oversold conditions. I prefer to use divergence instead of absolute levels to determine overbought and oversold conditions. What is divergence? It occurs when the market reaches a new high, but the indicator does not, making a lower high...

06:32

The_STA

Hi! Today, I want to talk about trend lines and how useful they can be in your trading. 1. Valid Trend Lines • For a trend line to be valid, it must connect at least three points. • In the case of the US dollar versus Japanese yen, we are currently in an uptrend. Therefore, you should aim to connect three low points. • Once you have a valid trend line, drawing it...

09:32

The_STA

Imagine you've decided to buy a particular stock. Your position starts to make money, and you're thrilled. But what do you do now? Should you hold onto your position or cash it in? Has it made enough profit, or will it go further? It's painful to lose money, but it's also frustrating to take profits only to see your original investment quadruple in price after...

The_STA

I will confess I am not great at Elliott wave but does anyone else view the sideways to lower price action on Bitcoin as an ‘a-b-c’ pattern? If it is, we should see the market head back up to the recent peak at 74415 and the top of the 3-year channel at 76760 #bitcoin #elliotwave #technicalanalysis #markets Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading...

The_STA

We are analysing the euro-sterling daily chart following the UK election. Before the election, the market had broken down from a one-year range. Since the election, the chart has returned to the breakdown point, testing the previous low of 0.8498 from February. The market failed to surpass this level again. This indicates a return to the breakdown point within...

The_STA

I have always been a big believer in simple is best. Consider the daily EUR/JPY chart with the 55 and 200-period moving averages that I consistently use. Notice how the market mean reverted to the 200-day MA in December 2023 and retested it in January 2024 before resuming its upward move. In February 2024, once the market regained the 55-day MA, it stayed above...

02:08

The_STA

In April, we discussed a longer-term target for USD/JPY of 175-177.10. Here’s a detailed explanation of how we derived this target: 1. Target Calculation: We identified a base on the chart between approximately 130.00 and 75.00. This base gives us a 55-point measurement. Adding this 55-point measurement to the breakout point at approximately 121.00 yields an...

01:35

The_STA

When looking at a daily EUR/USD chart, it may seem range-bound and dull. However, if you step back and examine the weekly chart, it becomes clear that the market is actually in a contracting range. The base of this range, around 1.0635, coincides with the low reached in 2020. The market is under pressure within this range, making this level particularly...

01:45

The_STA

GBP/USD really has a disaster of a week last week, not only has it recently failed at its long-term downtrend (from 2007), its 55-month ma ANS its 200-week ma, it has also failed at the top of a 6-month range and looks set to slide to the base of the range around 1.23. Disclaimer: The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not...

01:49

The_STA

To assess the extent of a market correction, I examine the price action around Fibonacci retracement levels and use the RSI for additional confirmation. On the Comex Copper futures chart, the market has executed a 50% retracement and bounced significantly from that level. The RSI has corrected its overbought condition and is attempting to stabilize around the 40...

The_STA

I know we have non-farm payrolls tomorrow, but in my view, the US 10-year yield is telling a powerful story on the charts. On the daily chart, the yield has broken into 2-month lows and fallen back below the 4.35% February peak, indicating potential near-term weakness. The weekly chart shows a recent clear failure at the previous uptrend, suggesting that...

The_STA

I couldn't help but notice the 9-year downtrend on the monthly GBP/CHF chart around the 1.1630 level. The pair is struggling here, and a breakdown seems likely, suggesting potential Sterling weakness. This observation supports the idea that EUR/GBP is likely to bounce off the .8498 support level. It's crucial to check your long-term charts and other crosses. Do...

02:02

The_STA

This morning, the EUR/GBP cross is beginning to erode the 0.8492 lows that have held since August 2022. This level is vulnerable, and directly below it lies the 200-month moving average (MA) at 0.8434. However, we believe the GBP/USD chart is more critical. The pair is pushing hard into the 16-year downtrend and the 55-month MA at 1.2850. Additionally, there is...

The_STA

I took a look at the weekly gold/silver ratio and noticed a few significant patterns. For example, there was a notable acceleration downward following the break of a 3-year uptrend a couple of weeks ago. Additionally, there is support at the 74.65/63 level, which has been in place since January 2022. This observation reminded me of the importance of examining...

The_STA

In our recent update on the Nasdaq, we noted that the market had bounced smartly off a previous peak of 16,765, the 2021 high. The Nasdaq is now reaching new highs, and I'm working to identify a potential target zone. On the weekly chart, there is a parallel resistance line from the 2023-2024 uptrend, which is around 19,400 (see weekly chart). On the monthly...

01:22

The_STA

The Amazon chart is showing several concerning signs. Although Amazon recently reached a new all-time high, this achievement wasn't supported by the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI), indicating a clear divergence on this indicator. This divergence suggests a loss of upside momentum at a critical juncture - namely around the 2021 peak at 188.65. Additionally,...

The_STA

Gold might not seem too exciting right now—it's been moving sideways without much direction. However, when you check the weekly chart, you'll notice something interesting. The past 6 weeks of sideways movement actually appear to be a consolidation phase above the previous range, suggesting that the market is poised for an upward breakout. I'm focusing on the...