SebastianofMoon

SebastianofMoon

Hello, it's been a while since I last posted, but I thought it's time to share a feeling that has been growing within me in the last 1-2 years. I have come to think that Bitcoin's top in 2021 was the top of the first Bitcoin grand supercycle. Meaning, a historic wave 5 top in the Eliott wave picture. Now why would I think such an outrageous thing? Several...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

It's time to look again at good old XRP, the historically most brutal coin to hold, and it again does confirm its reputation. The price action of XRP has been really subpar compared to some other coins, that have already seen strong rises, in accordance to the rise of BTC to new all-time highs. This is of course largely due to the SEC vs Ripple case, and the...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

So XRP did disappoint in the 2021 rally, but in hindsight, as always, one could have expected it. Damn hindsight :) It appears that XRPUSD is forming a gigantic multiyear mega wedge, similar to the first megawedge of 2013-2017, this would be the second one from 2018-2024, so 2 years longer than the first one. Of course, the direction of the breakout will depend...

SebastianofMoon

Another thing that could happen, which would surprise everyone, would be that Bitcoin indeed does go on to make a new ATH, but just barely, and then stops shortly before 100k. Remember that the hype bandwagon will become insane once we cross the old ATH at 69k, and thus everybody would be screaming for 100k+ or even 200 or 300k. However, we know that the market...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

Hello! Currently, I only see two possibilities of what Bitcoin will be doing. The first one is that we just continue rising without big interruptions, and we will be going to at least 100k, possibly between 100k and 150k. The second one is, that this is all just a giant bulltrap, we go to 40k-ish, and then go much lower than anyone would have thought...

SebastianofMoon

It's time for an update on the longterm bitcoin trend channel. Basically all Bitcoin logarithmic growth channels were far too optimistic. Bitcoin is growing a lot slower than most people would like, but that is just the reality, and we have to accordingly expect much lower targets in the future. If this trend continues, and that is a big if, then we can expect...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

I thought it was time to make a longterm chart, with all these wrong charts going around, hehe. They are wrong because bitcoins support and resistance lines are NOT linear in the logarithmic chart. I think that the correct fit is a square root function in the logarithmic chart, meaning that the growth is slowing down on long timescales. BTC cannot just continue...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

I am a BTC bull, but I see far too many overly optimistic price projections on tradingview. They seem to draw an exponential channel, instead of the current one, that is curved. While of course it can be that BTC goes out of the current channel, and bursts through the upper resistance, thus reverting back to its original exponential trend, I like to be more...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

This looks really bad now. I thought that we would enter a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern, but Bitcoin's continued weakness let's me fear for a worst-case scenario. There is still time and we could get lucky for a Wyckoff pattern, but should BTC really go lower, it is likely that we would visit the 12k area. Many people would then think: Awesome, cheap coins !...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

Where is TSLA headed? Well, if we look at the longterm weekly timeframe, we can nicely see an Eliott-wave like structure, with 5 waves up, and now it's quite likely we get a classic ABC type correction. A very likely target would be the .618 fibonacci level, which is, as you can see from my previous TSLA analysis, also the point where TSLA likes to find support...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

So the bounce idea has been canceled by Powell. Awesome times we live in, where one single individual can dictate the direction of entire markets. And since BTC is very strongly correlated with the stock market (unfortunately), this means that BTC is just following the general direction of the stock market. And since the FED appears to be very hawkish, this...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

Bitcoin has become really extremely correlated to the stock market, much to my disappointment to be honest. It is not the inflation hedge as which it was heralded, instead it behaves 100% like a tech stock. Thus, the monetary policy of the FED will decide the path forward. If the FED will raise interest rates strongly at the meeting on September 22nd, then we...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

I am by no means an EW expert, in fact, I am often quite skeptical of it. But sometimes, as with other tools, it proves to be a useful instrument. What if we have misread BTC's behavior the past years? I was thinking how BTC can make such a weird looking structure and how it could fit into the grand scheme of things. Maybe an expanded flat could be the answer:...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

Hello, it's been a while since I published a chart on TV. It's time again :) There is one very simple rule or mechanism that has a very big influence on Bitcoin price development. There are of course the halvings, then there is adoption, but then there is a strong positive correlation with stocks and anti correlation with the Dollar. So a strong dollar will ...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

So I was thinking again, and it might be that my last idea here () was too simplified. It seems the cycles are getting overproportionally longer. Also, it seems that the tops are diminishing more than previously thought. I take all cycles exactly from the previous halving days, except the very first cycle, starting day there is of course when BTC started trading...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

I thought a bit and found that the cycles are indeed getting longer. First cycle duration is 367 days from the halving date to the top. Halving date was 28th of November 2012, date of top was Nov 30th 2013. The second halving was on July 9th 2016, the top on Dec. 17th 2017. Cycle duration thus 567 days. So: Every cycle is now either 159 days longer than the...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

BTCUSD is nearing the extremely important 0.618 and 0.768 Fibonacci resistance levels at 51k and 57k respectively. Here it will be decided if this rally the past 4 weeks was just a bounce, and we continue with a drop to 20k-ish, or if this is really a sustained rally, and we continue towards new ATHs by the end of the year. In the first scenario, shown with the...

SebastianofMoon Updated 

So we can see that Bitcoin clearly shows a new dynamic since 2018, which it didn't have before. Such a behavior as now without any kind of bounce, was unthinkable in 2010-2017. Bitcoin always loved huge bounces, but since 2018, when institutions started getting involved more and more, Bitcoin also started changing. I expect Bitcoin therefore to behave very...