NG is way under it's 33yr POC of $2.57 and near the Value Area Low VAL. I'm stepping into it slowly, as it could dip quite a bit more, maybe as low as $1.50 helped by DXY running up. However, long term it should be safe to enter around $2. First target is the VAH ~ $4.
Most of the FOMC focus is on the rate announcement and press conference, but I found the minutes actually make better pivots. It's especially clear on the weekly chart. I expect this one to be bear, but will roll with it either way. Which way do you see it?
It appears we have a 5-3-5 "zig zag" corrective wave down to the QE-era trendlines .( TLs ) The idea is invalid if it breaks out of the pitchfork trigger line. There are only 3 types of corrective waves, 5-3-5, 3-3-5 & 3-3-3-3-3. Since this correction started with a 5 wave down it should follow the 5-3-5 pattern. However, there's also a decent chance the 3 wave...
testing the sharing of private code testing the sharing of private code testing the sharing of private code testing the sharing of private code testing the sharing of private code testing the sharing of private code
I was poking around and stumbled across this cool easter egg, Tokyo Night Mode! It's pretty bright, gotta play with the colors scheme, but cool!
Last year around this time they were pumping QQQ Invesco and Crypto.com commercials, even during the Super Bowl. Now we've been hearing about the most advertised recession in history. I don't believe the hype. Capitulation may come next year, but this ain't it bruh. B2B Doji Dragonfly, bull hammer candles on weekly, with bear trend volume falling off a cliff....
Pitchforks are a very popular TA tool and easy to use. However the fundamentals are often glossed over. For example, many beginners and vets don't know that it is based on Normal Distribution which has 3 Sigma Limits . This is commonly referred to as a "Bell Curve" . It's a natural rule of thumb used in Statistics and Probability Theory, for all manner of...
Lines drawn to candlesticks, before I switched to line chart so it was easier to read. The previous 2nd drive was near 127% of the previous. So this could be a 3 drives down setup to break out of the falling wedge. This current scallop move should top out in the 11.2-11.4k range. Then it will fall to about 10k for the bottom.
There is a disturbing correlation here with the difference between contracts. It seems like capitulation is nearing. Could it possibly bullish for markets when it turns down again? Looks like NQ2!-NQ1! is about to.
In the last 5 FOMC, the 2pm candle was either red or doji/choppy (yellow) AND the 2:30 candle was GREEN. So sell 2pm, buy 2:30pm is the pattern. In a few instances it retraced the 2:30 move shortly after, tho, so be nimble not greedy. Looking at these partitions you see some interesting fractal patterns, too. Could this be another setup for a check down? If...
With the FTX & Binance issues, plus crypto regulation likely coming next year, I don't have much faith in this setup. However I can't ignore the doubled up harmonics here, Bull Cypher and Bull Wolfe Wave. I'm prolly not a player until it establishes support above the $21k POC. Then we're looking for $29k>$37k>$60k targets. Above 19k is probably good for a $21k...
Where PPI peaked in the past, was where 2000 and 2008 crashes started capitulating. I'll be keeping an eye on this, if it goes too much deeper it should confirm. It indicates recession in industry.
Book depth fell off and spread jumped on both Sept 7th and Dec 7th. This correlated with a dead-cat bounce in Sept. You can find the chart here: www.cmegroup.com In Sept, 3 days later was the peak, then more down. See if it confirms Tuesday or Wednesday.
Last 3 times VIX was under 22 during FOMC minutes, it was near major tops. Looks like another one confirming to me.
QQQ was rejected at the macro channel resistance. It begs the question: Is this more like 2000, or one of the recent V-shape recoveries? The others were near the bottom of the channel and this structure/candle looks a lot like 2000, imho. There's still 9 days left on the 3 month candle, tho. So a lot could change between now and then. I'll revisit this when the...
New Housing Data has dropped this week and New home sales later today. It's going as expected. Cycling down and looking sharp. It's a very cyclical market, crests in July-Sept and bottoms around Jan-Mar. About 4-6 months between, once a year.
I asked about the Blackhole cursor and apparently it's an Easter Egg they added for a short time. It's kinda fun, so check if you have it. I plotted FOMC minutes and it seems to be more of a pivot than I thought. I figured the speeches and rate decisions would've been cleaner, but these seem closer to the actual pivots. I guess we could break out of the bear...
The fork from the 2008 bull run was too steep to hold up. However, the recent run seems a much more sustainable grade, and lines up well with past moves. Perhaps the fork channel widens more here soon, but this looks about right here. The fibs are pretty close. I doubt we see $50/brrl again soon. Should stay above the median for quite some time.