Nicklaus68

Nicklaus68 Updated 

Consider this bar pattern copy from 2000 era. This is not an original idea, this is a reminder or what has happened and could be.

Nicklaus68 Updated 

Axis has been ranging and consolidating for over 6 months now and has been making some bullish high volume moves lately. It could still drop another dollar to previous lows and be bullish from there; but I anticipate it making a higher low before then. BTC looks like FWB:25K support, so that could help fuel an alt rally. First target in the $9-10 range; but...

Nicklaus68 Updated 

We may have much further to fall, tho maybe not right away. Looking back at least 20 years, whenever NAS RSI has been 40 or less, it also tested 100W or 200W emas. Only one time it didn't, but came very close.

Nicklaus68 Updated 

Volume keeps dipping lower and lower. It's some of the lowest volume we've had this year. Soon, it will jump very high and prices will come down with it. There's another example from late December below.

Nicklaus68 Updated 

Generally, high volume is bearish and low volume is bullish. High volume bull candles tend to be bottoms and the volume tapers off as it runs up. One way to spot a coming reversal, is spotting a a substantial volume drop off from the previous candle/trend. Volume drops off when the momentum of the up/down move is exhausted. Those who were gonna sell or buy the...

Nicklaus68 Updated 

It doesn't get more obvious than this. We're probably headed back to 12k at the very least on a corrective wave. Fed GDP forecasts are really all you need to see to know lots of rate hikes and taxes coming soon. It's halving every year, and that's an optimistic estimate. Don't wanna spook the market. fred.stlouisfed.org

Nicklaus68 Updated 

This is Job openings minus continuing jobless claims. It makes the trends clear as day. There's another crash coming this year. There are only 1.7M job seekers and 10.8M open jobs. They will not get filled. They will close and the market will crash.

Nicklaus68 Updated 

In 2008 the Market rallied after the Bear Stearns collapse near March Trip Witch. Other banks stepped in to buy it up and disaster was averted! Or rather a 6 month stay of execution for the rest of them... The week of Sept 15th Lehman Bros collapsed, followed the next week by WaMu, then the next day by Wachovia. Wachovia would've probably survived if the other...

Nicklaus68 Updated 

QCOM was the hottest stock of 1999, and had a similar fall from grace as the biggest tech names of the time, if not faster. Some of the top tech stocks by market cap were: MSFT, CSCO, INTC & IBM I believe in a 2-3 year bear market, but we are pretty close to 2000 levels in a lot of major Tech stocks already. A lot of people wanna sell it to the floor as fast as...

Nicklaus68 Updated 

Metal bulls aren't well versed on the history of metal spoofing and the reason they do it, vault insurance limits. Allow me to educate you. www.justice.gov “With this verdict, the Department has secured convictions of ten former traders at Wall Street financial institutions, including JPMorgan, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch, Deutsche Bank, The Bank of Nova...

Nicklaus68 Updated 

VIX looks forward 30D and VIX1YR looks forward 1YR. So the divergence between them (VIX1YR-VIX) is interesting. On a monthly timeframe it seems to make an excellent Spy pivot indicator. It's noisier, but works on lower TFs as well.

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Nicklaus68

Just a quick intro to adding comparisons to your chart and changing scales. Right-click on the scales on the right to access their settings menus.

Nicklaus68 Updated 

Out of all the indexes the FTSE one has the cleanest looking 5-3-5 pattern. Perfect ABC to the vwap from top. A pivot here should start another long 5-wave down. 5th wave extension will cover the most ground on capitulation.

Nicklaus68 Updated 

History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes... I copied the bar pattern twice and pasted it for a general bearish plot. May see a relief bounce Friday, but I suspect more down follows next week. Any large deviation would invalidate it. These fractals, & plots in general, tend to get less accurate the further out they run. I didn't short based off of this alone, but...

Nicklaus68

MOVE is showing the Highest Bond Market Volatility Since Lehman Bros Collapse. In 2008 the market capitulated 2 weeks later. Perhaps the bail-ins and bail-outs will prevent problems, or perhaps not. Keep your eyes peeled this month. FOMC next week and Trip Witch options expiry Friday.

Nicklaus68 Updated 

See how working age population leveled off ~200M and job openings up top sky rocketed. Boomers retired and died form Covid. It's not gonna recover any time soon. Population is gonna shrink along with tax receipts. Meanwhile spending will only increase. The U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve have been calling it an "Unsustainable Fiscal Path" since 2018 at least....

Nicklaus68

It's no coincidence that crypto bottomed when stimulus checks got cut; and US personal savings(USPS) sky rocketed to many multiples over the previous ATH. You see where the money went and disappeared. It took crypto prices with it and it's not likely to rally much without some serious cash influx via stimulus and/or rate cuts. So best case it ranges in the...

Nicklaus68 Updated 

Every major crash in modern history came after rate hikes completed. Either during the plateau or during the first cuts. No bulls can explain how we're going to avoid that fate this time. We hiked twice as fast as 2007 and 2018 hikes, yet somehow there's gonna be a soft landing? Yeah right LOL It's already looking like a broadening wedge like 2000; and about to...