NaughtyPines

NaughtyPines

I'm not going to play this particular one, as I've already got more than my fair share of oil and gas plays on at the moment (OIH, XOP, HES), but IVR/IV hasn't been this high in XOM in quite some time (79/26). Here's what I would do were I not so heavily into the sector right now: Dec 31st 72/84.5 short strangle for 2.01 credit POP%: 74% Max Profit: $201 per...

NaughtyPines

Another post-earnings play: CAT, with an IVR of 72 and an IV of 28. Naturally, a lot could change between now on Monday's open, but it doesn't hurt to think ahead. Here's the play: Dec 31st 63/76 short strangle for 1.65 credit POP%: 76% Max Profit: $165 per contract BPE: ~$820/contract BE's: 61.35/77.65

NaughtyPines

With a dwindling earnings calendar and some buying power to put to good use, I'm looking to go where the IVR/IV takes me. With an IVR of 74 and fairly decent IV of 43, HES popped up toward the top of the Dough "Notable Stocks" grid (sorted by IVR). Here's my set up: Dec 24 51/68 Short Strangle POP%: 75% Max Profit: $150/contract BPE: ~$597/contract BE's:...

NaughtyPines

In a previous post, I noted that patience should be exercised in getting into VIX products, since playing them "in the middle" can test the nerves and, of course, cost you dearly. Volatility can not only spike suddenly, it can cave suddenly, so it is best played at price extremes, with the preference being with VIX in particular to go long at the compartively...

NaughtyPines

In spite of the fact that I think "the fat lady has sung" for this particular week of earnings (see post below), I did briefly consider playing JWN (Nordstrom) because it came up on the Dough "High Options Volume" grid and shows an IVR/IV of 100/75. It announces earnings on 11/12 after market close. I looked at Nov 20th expiry setups and don't like what I see,...

NaughtyPines

With this week's "meaningful" earnings plays (and by "meaningful," I mean worth more than 1.00 credit) all but over, I'm looking into what could be productive for next week, and they are HD, WMT, CRM, GMCR, and TGT. While you naturally can play some of the earnings for issues that are valued less than $50, you'll find that the vast majority of the time you're...

NaughtyPines

With attractive earnings season plays quickly waning, I'm looking to play some instruments that still have a bit of earnings afterglow in terms of volatility. BABA (IVR 58/IV 39) is one of those plays: not only does it still have some volatility left over from earnings, it's been subject to profit-taking after a post "Singles Day" sales figures run up/sell...

NaughtyPines

When I see a possible good idea on someone else's web site, I steal it, and it becomes mine -- all mine (mwuah hah hah). This particular one comes courtesy of TastyTrade. After having just announced earnings, AET still enjoys a fairly high IVR/high IV (78/39). With buying power to spare in this otherwise fairly low volatility environment, I'm going to play via...

NaughtyPines

Mighty slim pickin's for earnings plays this week from a premium sellers point of view. M (Macy's) is one of them with high IVR/high IV (100/92). Because I've got quite a bit of buying power available, I'm going short strangle: Nov 20 39/53.5 POP%: 74% Max Profit: $101/contract Buying Power Effect: ~$463/contract Break Evens: 37.99/54.51 As with all short...

NaughtyPines

Okay, okay, okay ... . So FB doesn't meet my ordinary criteria of having high IVR (70+) and high IV (50+) for purposes of selling premium (currently its IVR/IV is 46/36). My excuse is, "Hey, it's Facebook; you can't not play Facebook" (plus the typical 1 SD short strangle yields $145 per contract and the options, unlike some of my plays, are extremely liquid,...

NaughtyPines

With an IVR of 91 and an IV of 71, WFM's premium is sufficiently "wholesome" (see what I did there?) for a premium selling earnings play. The max profit isn't huge, but the little ones do add up ... . Due the price of the underlying, I will be going short strangle: Nov 20th 26.5/36 Short Strangle POP%: 75% Max Profit: $72/contract BPE: Undefined Risk BE's:...

NaughtyPines

Needless to say, X has been absolutely hammered this year, and the pain just doesn't seem to stop, if today's earnings are any indication (down 1.49 in AH trading or 11.51%). With its high IVR/IV (94/102), it's a great premium selling play, but not via short strangle or iron condor due to the price of the underlying; you just won't get squat for premium if you go...

NaughtyPines

KORS (IVR 96/IV 53) announces earnings tomorrow before market open, so if you're going to put on a play, do it before today's market close. Options liquidity isn't great, so you may want to do some price discovery on your setup, looking for a fill above the mid price ... . I'm going short strangle due to the price of the stock: Nov 13th 34/45 Short...

NaughtyPines

Because I have the buying power available, I'm going to attack TSLA via short strangle. I'm going to skew it slightly bearish and go a bit wide, with the short call above the 1 SD line, but with the short put between the 1 and 2 SD: Nov 13th 175/242.50 for a 2.21 credit POP%: 81% Max Profit: $221/contract BPE: ~$2135 BE's: 172.79/244.71 If you go the iron...

NaughtyPines

TSLA announces earnings tomorrow (Tuesday) after market close, so if you're going to play it, put on your set up before the end of the NY session. Here's a couple of possibilities: Nov 13th 187.5/240 Short Strangle for 3.97 in credit Max Profit: $397 BPE: ~ $2135 POP%: 74% BE's: 183.53/243.97 Nov 13th 180/187.5/240/247.5 Iron Condor for 1.69 credit Max Profit:...

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As you can see by the chart below, VIX sub-12 doesn't happen very often, and while I know that folks like to play the VIX in the +12 to infinity no man's land (myself, on occasion, included, see post below), I think the better bet is to wait for sub-12 VIX and then play this index via debit spread (e.g., 10/11.5, 10/12, 10.5/12 call spread) where you know your...

NaughtyPines

With volatility having bled mightily out of the broader market, earnings plays is where the premium selling game is at, so that is what I'm focusing my attention on this week. With earnings plays, I'm looking at doing either iron condors or short strangles (buying power permitting) for underlyings with an IVR above 70 and high IV (50+). To a certain extent,...

NaughtyPines

WYNN just had earnings about two weeks ago. Ordinarily, the volatility quickly contracts, but it hasn't in WYNN. With an IVR of 75 and an IV of 62, I can't pass up this play. You can naturally go with an iron condor with the same short strike prices, but I'm going with a short strangle here since I have the buying power to do it: Dec 18th 55/85 short...