IlyaSpivak

IlyaSpivak

NZDUSD looks to have taken out resistance capped just below 0.6230, which may set the stage for upward extension toward resistance in the 0.6352-0.6469 zone. Reclaiming a foothold below 0.6150 now seems necessary to neutralize near-term upward pressure. Prices were relatively staid after November's RBNZ announcement registered on the hawkish end of expectations -...

IlyaSpivak

USDCAD fell after completing a bearish Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, as expected. Prices are now digesting above support-turned-resistance anchored at 1.3154. Negative RSI divergence points at ebbing bearish momentum, but that need not necessarily translate to reversal. Rather, it may simply flag a consolidative pause before the down move is reasserted....

IlyaSpivak

USD/CAD appears to have completed a bearish Head and Shoulders (H&S) top. Negative RSI divergence bolsters the case for a downturn. The broadly anti-USD response to October's #NFP report may have triggered a breakdown through the H&S pattern's neckline. The measured-move downside objective implied by the setup calls for a test of the 1.30 figure. Clearing...

IlyaSpivak

USDCAD looks like it may be gearing up for a pullback from resistance below 1.39. The rally from mid-August appears to have run out of momentum after testing an inflection zone that has acted as both support and resistance since May 2017. Negative RSI divergence highlights ebbing bullish vigor. A pullback from here sees initial supports at the 1.36 and 1.35...

IlyaSpivak

AUDUSD looks to be breaking neckline support at 0.6837, which may set the stage for a test of downside thresholds at 0.6765 and 0.6678. Near-term, neutralizing selling pressure might demand re-establishing a foothold above 0.6872. From there, another challenge of the 0.70 figure could follow.

IlyaSpivak

EUR/USD has broken consolidation range support near the 1.01 figure after a rebound from July lows faltered near the 1.04 handle. This is where a downward-sloping trend line from February 2022 is bolstered by a former support zone dating to mid-May, now recast as resistance. The breakdown seems to set the stage for another test below the parity threshold, eyeing...

IlyaSpivak

EUR/USD seems to have broken range support at 1.0143 ahead of the FOMC rate decision. Prices are retesting that level as resistance. If it holds, extension back toward parity is probably in the cards. Needless to say however, upcoming event risk is heavy-duty and may moot the chart setup. As it stands, the markets have fully priced in a 75bps Fed rate hike and...

IlyaSpivak

The AUDUSD monthly chart appears to reveal the formation of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) top marking the end of a corrective rally from March 2020 to February 2021. That upswing saw a retest at the underside of a long-term rising trend that held unreached from April 2001 to December 2018. From here, the H&S setup implies a measured downside objective just above the...

IlyaSpivak

As with its Kiwi counterpart, AUDUSD now looks to be breaking down from a bearish Descending Triangle chart pattern. The setup's measured-move downside objective is implied just below the 0.64 figure. Reversing back above the near-term swing top at 0.6919 may neutralize immediate selling pressure.

IlyaSpivak

NZDUSD seems to have broken through the bottom of a bearish Descending Triangle continuation pattern, hinting that deeper losses area ahead. The implied measured-move objective hints that a push toward the 0.58 figure may be in the cards.

IlyaSpivak

AUD/USD slipped below support near 0.7070, marked by a rising trend line guiding the upswing since the upswing from mid-month lows as well as former range resistance. A retest is now underway. If it fails, the longer-term downtrend may resume. Confirmation is eyed on a breach and hold below 0.7020, which may then set the stage for a slide back toward the 0.69 figure.

IlyaSpivak

Gold prices are retesting support-turned-resistance near 1850, where a recently broken rising trend line dating back to August 2021 overlaps with a price congestion zone. The move appears to be corrective for now, and may give way to downtrend resumption (though technical confirmation of reversal is absent at this stage). Turning lower from here sees initial...

IlyaSpivak

Fed policy bets are evolving, which may explain why gold has managed an upswing alongside the S&P 500 while the US Dollar has fallen so far in February. Policymakers’ increasingly assertive posture on stimulus withdrawal coupled with supportive economic data – most recently, January’s payrolls report – have driven up near-term rate hike expectations. The longer...

IlyaSpivak

Inflation expectations (T10YIE, red line) have been on the rise since Q1 2020. Nominal yields (US10Y, turquoise line) bottomed as gold (XAUUSD, yellow line) topped in Aug 2020 after the Fed marked the end of stimulus expansion, shifting speculation to timing the eventual tightening. However, stocks (ESH2022, S&P 500 future, purple line) did not turn lower until...

IlyaSpivak

GBPJPY has extended lower after being rejected at familiar resistance clustered around the 158.00 figure. Slipping below support centered on the 156.00 mark may have set the stage for an decline toward the 154.17-64 area. A test below the 153.00 handle may follow thereafter if a breach of support is confirmed on a daily closing basis.

IlyaSpivak

AUD/USD appears poised to break support at 0.7171, which may set the stage for a run at the 0.70 figure. A daily close below support might serve as confirmation that December's corrective upswing has ended and the structural decline defining much of 2021 has resumed. A dense block of congestion-area resistance runs up into 0.7343.

IlyaSpivak

WTI crude oil prices are showing negative RSI divergence on a test of resistance marked by an inflection area in play since July 2018. This hints that upside momentum may be fading, with a turn lower to follow. A break below support anchored at 72.52 may expose the 70.00 figure. Alternatively, breaking resistance at the 77.00 mark might open the door for another...

IlyaSpivak

NZD/USD pointedly pushed below congestion area support anchored at 0.6798, seemingly confirming a downside break on a daily closing basis. A subsequent retest of this barrier as resistance seems to be struggling for momentum, bolstering the argument for bearish follow-through. A relatively minor layer of initial support lines at up 0.6737, followed by the 2021...