Dr_Roboto

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Finally, some action after a very boring month or so of being range bound. The lack of a contested election provided a major boost to tech the last two days :) Now, the question is if this rally is a true breakout above the trading channel that has confined QQQ for most of the last 14 years or so (minus the COVID bubble) or if it is just a fake out.

Dr_Roboto

QQQ hovering around the resistance of the core channel from 2010. Found support on the center of the black channel that is based on the COVID bubble. Price seems to generally range bound in this area between trendlines. Looks like more sideways without something big to push it one way or the other. Overall, it seems like tech has run out of FOMO. That does not...

Dr_Roboto

QQQ lost the 20 day SMA yesterday. History shows that there is a very strong probability that it will go lower. Today say it hold at the support of the AI-based rally over the last year or so. It broke through that the other week, but then we say the strong rally. I noted back then that it felt like a dead cat bounce counter rally to me. Looks like it is proving...

Dr_Roboto

Extremely bullish 2 weeks after that crazy low last Monday morning. You can see that QQQ tagged resistance yesterday and sold off today. Market is feeling bullish, but my gut tells me that this is a dead cat bounce. Hard to know for sure. The rally has been almost abnormally strong, and if you look back to early 2022 you saw the same thing. Big sell off with...

Dr_Roboto

Here is what I have been tracking with my technical analysis. What we saw since the end of July is the AI bubble losing its momentum. What happened? You can see on June 24th where price gaps up above the long-standing blue trading channel from 2009 that contained trading from 2009 until the 2020 bubble. You can see it gap down back into the blue channel on...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

After spending about a month above the long term blue channel since 2009 (excludes COVID bubble), QQQ is back inside the blue channel. You can see the gap up on June 12th and gap back down on July 24th. The black channel goes all the back to 2008 and the bottom of the market and includes the COVID bubble. The black mid-channel is currently acting as support. The...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Out of curiosity I took a look M2 to see the trends over the years and how it compares to COVID and the last few years. I don't have any great revelations to share about what to do, but I thought the chart was interesting. I also did some research and used ChatGPT to help me create a summary about M2. Please note that I cannot guarantee the following text is...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Right now, not much seems to be stopping the bubble in Tech. You can see we broke above resistance on June 11th and have not looked back. I was expecting some form of test of support, like back in July 2020, but instead any pullback has been bought up. Volume is low and that means that everyone is long to go along for the ride. If we get a run up like back in...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

The gap up and follow through today shows a clear break above the 2010 trading channel that has provide resistance so far. I see a pattern very close to that of July 6, 2020. The is not confirmation yet that price is out of the channel and that resistance has become support, but for the bulls this is a very good start. I would expect the bulls to try and run with...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

The blue trading channel has been a very reliable resistance since 2010. You can see the many times that it has confined price action, only being broken during the COVID bubble. My guess is that it will continue to be resistance. We will likely see a repeat of the action from 2015 and 2018 where price will slowly work sideways but ever so slightly higher with...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

QQQ had a bad week last week after trying since February to break long term resistance of the Blue trading channel. There was a lot of momentum but ultimately after being squeezed between resistance of the blue channel and support from black channel midline, it was time to take profit for the big guys. Clearly, inflation readings and uncertainty about interest...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

It looks like momentum is back and QQQ is getting ready to break out of the trading channel. Based on the COVID rally, I think we have a chance to add another 15%.

Dr_Roboto Updated 

The Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is in a struggle with long term resistance of the trading channel and that of the momentum buyers. You can see the rejection several times off resistance, but every time the momentum buyers push it back up. I am still unsure what is going to happen here. We are at the point where bad news is good news and good news is better news just like in...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

I see the NAS100 fighting to break above the long-term trading channel resistance since 2010. The AI FOMO has pushed things up quickly this past year. Will a broadening rally from the rest of the market push it above the channel like during COVID? Hard to know right now. I see and feel a lot of the same FOMO as in 20-21. It could just keep working its way up along...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Tech is just super strong and though in the overvalued range, I think it is likely going to run up to at least 20,000 before summer based on the 1.6 fib extension. Now, I still think we need a confirmation of continued bullishness next week. If we continue above the trend line, then I see no reason that it does not stop until 20k.

Dr_Roboto Updated 

QQQ's price has approached the resistance trendline at the top of the trading channel since 2010. It's crucial to monitor this line for a potential breakout. If we observe an upward breakout followed by clear confirmation, it could resemble another "bubble" similar to what we saw in 2021. Otherwise, the price might continue its upward trend while trading sideways...

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Blue channel represents the primary trading channel since the 2009 crash. Only during the Covid bubble was QQQ able to escape that channel (ended up doubling it). Price can still work its way up along this resistance line, such as 2014 and 2018, but both of those times the stock market averaged out to be pretty flat over about a year time frame. Here it is on the 1W

Dr_Roboto Updated 

Here is my look at the NASDAQ. If this wave continues its upward wave trend, we could see another 5% or more to retake the ATH by Christmas. There was a clear and strong breakout of the down trend and a clear motive wave. With moving averages