CeresTrader

CeresTrader Updated 

Where are we today? We are in a rising wedge . . . and there is a risk that gold eventually breaks this primary trend levels . . . but, if past is prologue, then we should see a 15 minute retracement into our next buy at the 4 hour HWB long setup. . . around 2391-2393.6 area.

CeresTrader Updated 

Silver has been trading traditional fib longs and and extensions in this big bull runup. However, we are very overextended, trading well in excess of big support over the past two days. We are also at a potential top in terms of it trend channel. The risk of a decline in silver is significant, and unlike gold which gives you a clue on the fifteen minutes charts,...

CeresTrader

Oil has broken the 15 minute shorts and now are on their way to the All The Way HWB shorts in on the larger 4 hour time frames. You can see how on Friday, the small time frame shorts survived multiple 4 hour candle dives below the 61.8% longs, only to close at or above the 61.8% long. Our 15 minute bias is long and expect it to trade back up to the 82.18-83.42...

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Gold, Intraday -36 Min - Indicators with Fibs Overlay: Yes I'm bearish but there was some bullish price action at the end of the day. Notice that dip into lows . . . and then the subsequent rebound on the 36 minute chart that set the stage for a nice rally at the end of the day. . . That is an issue that we will need to work through in the early part of the week....

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Gold, Daily - Indicators with Fibs Overlay: Let's assume that the long extension will fail as a result of the Daily short that has traded. This target is 2260.15 . . . we have intraday fibs that take us to nearly that level. We have been ranging just above support for the past 4 days, which does lead me to think that eventually the trend may be down on the daily ....

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Gold, Weekly - Indicators with Fibs Overlay: There is the risk of an extension long up here if gold can find support above 2257.36 . . . the issue is that our fibs on the intraday are bearish and we keep going down. But, if bulls find support, the upside of this extension is 2500. But, currently, we are bearish and I suspect that we will take some time to trade...

CeresTrader Updated 

YM (DOW 30), 4 Hour, Indicators: This is what I need to see turn to get confirmation on our short position up here. The 4 hour is still locked in "embedded" mode on the slow stochastic. My bet is that this is going to come off "embedded" and in the process swing back to the middle of the Bollinger band. . . if that happens, that would take us back to 39921 . . ....

CeresTrader Updated 

Gold: 60 Minute, Fibonacci . . . I have much better bearing as to where and why this market is moving. All Month of March we have been trading an extension at the 38.2% line. We hit it's target on March 20th. Extension rules generally mean we trade the same anchor to new highs to get the retracement. We traded the retracement on March 23-24 and have been going up...

CeresTrader

YM (US30) 4 Hour, Fibs: Traded the first bear fib after the double top and saw it trade past its objective yesterday. The Dow has been one of the weaker indices of late, after outperforming most of the year. It didn't even make it up to the 50% line, selling off at the 38.2% line in the initial down move. Then, yesterday, on the rebound, it traded it's halfway...

CeresTrader

ES (US 500) Fibs, Hourly: ES is our main index that provides helps us determine trend. You will notice that this week had a change of character. The market had taken the stairs up, but is now taking the elevator down, with sharp moves coming in a few hours to the downside. Expect more of this. ES pattern at the top is more head and shoulders like. And, unlike YM,...

CeresTrader Updated 

Crude OIl: Daily, Fibs & Indicators . . . Not as bullish as one would think. The move above the daily BB showed why you don't buy above the BBs . . . eventually, you get a correction. 3 days down for oil. The BB midpoint, yellow line, has been a support level for oil and will be interesting to see what happens down there. But, we are at a big resistance level...

CeresTrader

Silver: Daily Fibs and Indicators: Silver has a bull fib objective that takes it to 28.86, a massive move. It held it's 61.8% line in October 23 and was on it's way until December 23 when it stopped at the high of it's daily range. We traded down early in the year, only to test that high again htis past week. And, we are selling off of it again. We can't trust...

CeresTrader

We basically traded our first bear fib on a longer term timeframe with the move down from highs . . . Our lows on Friday afternoon's session came within a buck of targets, so there could be a substantial retracement, potentially an "ALL THE WAY, HALF WAY BACK from the ALL TIME HIGHS. What this would look like is a Head and Shoulders Top . . . with the right...

CeresTrader

Gold: Daily, Fib & Indicators . . . We hit the high a week ago, corresponding to our objective from the Daily Fib Long in October 23. Now, we are lining up for a daily retracement of that move from October 23 to our highs. We could spend the next2-3 months heading down to the bull fibs, between 1968.76 and 2066.42. The daily chart, even with the Asian breakout to...

CeresTrader Updated 

Oil has held bull fibs since Feb 1. The 3 previous fibs are documented and highlighted on the chart. We have been in a wide-range pattern for the past couple of weeks, threatening to keep and hold yearly highs, only to fall back down. Now, it is facing it's biggest test in the upmove, with two different saves at the 61.8% line over the last week. Given the...

CeresTrader

Silver is at a critical point in it's chart. With gold breaking to new highs, Silver has underperformed but has rallied alongside the yellow metal. Now we are at a critical stage that can see silver breakout of its flag and continue it's bull trend. The indicator that I love to look for longer-duration breakouts is the slow stochastics, specifically, when it...

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Interlocking Hourly Fibs show why we just dropped as much as we did. We traded into a long with a price target of 2206.55 at 2168 during late Afternoon NY and rallied smartly off of it. . . . a 2nd test of our 2168 lows would be a gift to start the week. Hold that level there and 2206.55 becomes our immediate target. Lot of momentum for this to occur. Following...

CeresTrader

Silver may be coming in for a pullback. It traded it's first longer time frame bear fib on Friday afternoon, selling off in the last 4 hours of the session. Silver has been considerably weaker than gold, so should the sell off continue, expect to see sliver trading it's HWB long at the 50-61.8% line. In terms of Elliot Wave, there is a wave count starting at the...