Potential bullish reversal?NZD/JPY is reacting off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could rise to the 1st resistance level which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 90.25
1st Support: 89.88
1st Resistance: 90.61
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Jpy
USD/JPY Remains Strong as JPY Struggles for Upside The USD/JPY pair continued its upward trend on Tuesday, maintaining strength despite limited upside potential for the Japanese Yen (JPY). The JPY's inability to gain ground is largely attributed to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) rate-hike plans. Coupled with a generally positive risk tone in the markets, this has kept the JPY, traditionally seen as a safe-haven currency, from making any meaningful gains.
US Data and Market Outlook
Tuesday’s economic calendar for the US is relatively quiet, with no major data releases expected. However, the spotlight will turn to Thursday’s key economic reports, which include the USD Core Retail Sales (m/m), Retail Sales (m/m), and Unemployment Claims. These reports are expected to inject more volatility into the market and could influence the trajectory of the US Dollar and other major currency pairs, including USD/JPY.
Given the strength of the USD near its two-month peak, the upcoming data could further support the dollar, limiting any potential upside for the lower-yielding JPY. The US Dollar's resilience continues to exert pressure on the JPY, keeping the pair on a bullish path.
Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Targeting 152.000
From a technical perspective, the USD/JPY pair appears poised to extend its rally, with a potential target around the 152.000 level. This area could be reached following the release of the key US economic reports on Thursday, which may provide the necessary momentum for further gains.
The technical outlook is supported by the broader strength of the USD and the lack of strong upside drivers for the JPY. The chart of JPY futures also reflects the challenging environment for the Yen, signaling continued weakness.
Chart Overview: JPY Futures Chart
As shown in the chart, the JPY remains under pressure in the futures market, further confirming our outlook for continued USD/JPY strength.
Strategy: Patience is Key
After successfully closing our previous USD/JPY trade in profit, we are now waiting for a more favorable area to enter a new position. With key economic data on the horizon, patience remains essential as we await clearer signals from the market.
In conclusion, the USD/JPY pair is likely to maintain its bullish trend in the near term, with a potential target of 152.000. The combination of US Dollar strength and uncertainty surrounding the BoJ’s rate policy should keep the Yen on the defensive, at least until there are clearer indications of future central bank actions. For now, we remain on the sidelines, waiting for the next opportunity to re-enter the market.
PREVIOUS CLOSED POSITION:
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JPY Index Reversal – FVG Tap and Potential Upside Move?The JPY Index has tapped into a high-probability Fair Value Gap (FVG) after taking out sell-side liquidity. This price action suggests a strong move to the upside may be on the horizon, with price moving from Internal Range Liquidity (IRL) to External Range Liquidity (ERL). With the FVG acting as a key reversal zone, targets are set at 747.5, 771.1, and the higher buy-side liquidity at 788.3.
DYOR
USDJPY - 4H Sell SetupFX:USDJPY is displaying a clear technical setup for a bearish move. After a significant pullback following a sharp fall, the pair failed to surpass the resistance zone around 149. This area has proven strong as the price action was unable to hold above it, trapping liquidity just above the resistance. The price then rejected this zone with a sharp reversal. Additionally, the second attempt to break through the resistance further confirms the weakness, as liquidity hunting above the resistance has been met with selling pressure. This rejection, combined with the failed breakout, suggests the pair is likely to fall towards the lower targeted support zone, potentially setting up a strong shorting opportunity in the near term.
This aligns with fundamental factors, including expectations of slower rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, Japan faces a cautious stance on raising interest rates, which has kept the yen under pressure. However, recent economic data from Japan, such as rising producer prices and decreased lending activity, suggests a shift may be underway, supporting further yen strength and a potential fall in USDJPY.
Traders should watch for a continuation of this move, as the failed attempts to breach resistance and the liquidity grab signal further downside pressure.
ICT Long setup on NZDJPY👋Hello Traders,
Our 🖥️ AI system detected that there is an H1 or higher timeframe ICT Long setup in
NZDJPY for session trade (a couple of hours)
Here is a session trade idea (since it is near support surface, we should use small lot size)
Please refer to the details Stop loss, Buy Zone,open for take profit.
For more ideas, you are welcome to visit our profile in tradingview.
Have a good day!
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Bullish momentum to extend?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could rise to the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 149.32
1st Support: 147.24
1st Resistance: 152.02
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
AUDJPY: Great long term bullish trade.AUDJPY is on excellent bullish levels on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 60.728, MACD = 0.850, ADX = 48.315) which shows the steady bullish trend on the medium term but more importantly it just turned bullish on the 1W timeframe, showing the enourmous upside potential. And this is evident as the dominant pattern is a Channel Up since March 2020. The August low was a bottom exactly on the 1D MA50, the 1D RSI is making a bottom formation and the price action looks identical to the two prior bottoms of the Channel. The rallies they produced rose both by +27.00%. We expect a similar rebound (TP = 114.000).
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USD/JPY Market Analysis 26/09/2024 After 70 days of constant decline, the USD/JPY pair has finally managed to break the descending trendline and exit the prolonged bearish trend. At the moment, it is still unclear whether this is a long-term trend reversal or just a short-term pullback within the larger downtrend.
The charts clearly show a breakout of the main descending trendline, followed by a flip of the horizontal and diagonal support/resistance levels, which further confirmed the significance of this move. This breakout has been tested and validated at multiple levels — first at the diagonal trendline, and then at the horizontal support level.
One of the key signals for this potential reversal is the bullish divergence on the 4-hour timeframe, which indicated a weakening of the selling pressure and a potential trend change. This signal was further strengthened by the crossover of the Moving Average 7 above the Moving Average 21, which occurred right before the breakout.
After the breakout confirmation, the price managed to reclaim the 0.236 Fibonacci level, but it is now facing a crucial resistance at the MA 200 level, which will determine the next direction. We are currently at a critical juncture — either we break through this level and head towards the 0.382 Fibonacci level, or we retrace and test the horizontal support once more, which now serves as a key support zone.
It remains to be seen whether the price can maintain these levels or if it will revert back into the previous trend. If we see another successful test of the horizontal support, it could indicate further upside potential and a transition into a more stable bullish trend.
USD/JPY Analysis - September 30, 2024Based on the current technical review and previous analyses, we observe key changes on the USD/JPY chart. After the pair broke through a key resistance level, a pullback has occurred, allowing us to identify important technical zones and opportunities for entering scalp positions. In this analysis, we consider the main aspects of this breakout, the pullback, and potential for further growth.
Breakout of Key Resistance and Pullback: The breakout was anticipated based on prior analyses. Following this breakout, the price began to retrace back towards previous resistance levels, which have now become support. The zone where this retracement is occurring coincides with the 0.61 - 0.65 Fibonacci level, further confirming the strength of this area as a "golden pocket" for potential reversals.
Bullish Divergence and Volume Loss: As the price fell to this confluence, bullish divergence formed on lower timeframes, signaling a possible return of buying strength. The decrease in volume during this time indicates a loss of momentum among sellers, which contributed to the decision to enter a scalp position and take advantage of the bounce from this level.
Trendline as Temporary Support: The diagonal trendline has served as crucial support during the bounce. The plan is to monitor this trendline, and if it is breached, a retest of the previous support level is expected, which will open a new opportunity for entry. This could be a key moment for establishing a new uptrend, as a support/resistance flip at this level is likely to trigger a new wave of buying activity.
Fibonacci Golden Pocket (0.61 - 0.65 Fib Level): This zone is one of the most reliable areas for seeking price reversals in technical analysis. Located within the "golden pocket," it provides additional confluence that can confirm the validity of the plan. This zone often attracts investors as it represents an optimal balance between retracement and potential growth.
Expected Setup and Take Profit Target: The target, set at 147.827, represents a resistance level that the price may test again after successfully flipping support into resistance. This target is logically set based on previous high price levels, while the setup offers a potentially very high Risk/Reward ratio of over 6.19, making it exceptionally attractive for trading.
⚠️ Disclaimer: ⚠️
🚫 This is not financial advice. Trade responsibly and conduct your own research before making any decisions.🚫
Falling towards overlap support?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 147.15
1st Support: 145.78
1st Resistance: 149.29
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
EURJPY: Well supported on the 1W MA100 but needs more to rise.EURJPY is marginally bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 55.394, MACD = 0.690, ADX = 37.501), practically neutral as it's been ranging between the 1W MA50 and 1W MA100. The long term pattern is a Channel Up since 2021 and the recent 1W MA100 test is the new bottom (HL) of the pattern. The 1W MA50-100 consolidation is the bottom formation and even though it's encouraging we need a crossing over the 1W MA50 in order to validate the new rise. Technically it should be around +18.70% like the previous two. Set your target accordingly (TP = 183.500).
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GBPJPY Heading to the Channel's Top. Sell alert.The GBPJPY pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the August 05 bottom. The price is above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and has already made a Higher High on September 27, which was immediately sold by the market.
Based on the previous peak formation of the Channel Up though, we could see a Double Top Higher High rejection in the coming days like the one on September 02. The 1D RSI made a Higher High also before the start of the September Bearish Leg, and right now it hasn't done so.
As a result, we will wait for a short opportunity a little higher and then target the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (like the September 11 Low) at 188.800.
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Could price reverse from here?USD/JPY is rising towards the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 140.43
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Stop loss: 150.90
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 147.15
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level.
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USDJPY Waiting for this perfect sell opportunity.Two weeks ago (September 25, see chart below) we gave a strong multi-month buy signal on the USDJPY pair and it couldn't have had a better timing:
Last week recorded a massive 1W green candle, the strongest one in more than 2 years that almost tested the 1W MA50. Today we will be breaking down this long-term buy opportunity on the lower 1D time-frame.
As you can see, the price is approaching the 1D MA100 (green trend-line)/ 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Resistance cluster. This is of very high importance as during the previous Channel Up bottom in early 2023, the two formed a Bearish Cross (February 27 2023) and just a few days later the pair topped and was rejected on the 1D MA200.
The result was a pull-back to the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. Long-term we remain bullish but on the short-term we will be waiting for this rejection opportunity in order to short and target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 146.000.
Notice also that the high symmetry on the RSI sequences among the two bottom fractals also indicates that we are just before the 1D MA100/ 200 Bearish Cross took place.
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Potential bullish bounce?CAD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1sst resistance level which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 108.03
1st Support: 106.91
1st Resistance: 109.68
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USD/JPY Breakout and New Support FormationUSD/JPY has recently broken through a key resistance level, which has now turned into support. If we break above the trendline resistance, our first target will be the next resistance level. This could be a good opportunity for a long position if the breakout is confirmed.
GBPJPY H4 - Short Signal GBPJPY H4
For those that watched the market analysis and live charting video, you would have seen us discuss GBPJPY and the 195 psychological price/sell zone. We have since seen this zone tested and subsequently rejected. How much mileage this setup has... I don't know, but if we can break 194.500, we should see a send lower.
A break and candle close around or below 194.500 is important, breaking this H4 and H1 consolidation, EUR and LON session could certainly be enough to drive this setup where is needs to go.
Bullish momentum to extend?USD/JPY is falling towards the pivot which has acts as a pullback support and could reverse to the 1st resistance which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 147.15
1st Support: 145.81
1st Resistance: 149.39
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
R2F Weekly Analysis - 6th October 2024 (ICT Concepts)Welcome to another R2F Weekly Market Analysis using ICT Concepts along with my own discoveries. I'm going to go through various assets/markets, and give a real-time view of how I perform my analysis on the weekends. I'll give my take on what has been happening, and what I'm expecting in either the coming days, weeks, or months. Without further ado, let's get into it!
- R2F
GBPJPY One pullback to give before strong rally.GBPJPY is trading inside a CHannel Up since May 2021.
Having a strong correction in July, the price has stabilized on a shorter term Channel Up.
A similar Channel Up was formed after the previous bottom in January - March 2023 and then the price rallied by +20%.
Expect a similar bullish wave. Buy and target 217.00.
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USD/JPY Poised for Gains as DXY StrengthensThe US Dollar Index (DXY) continues its upward momentum as Treasury yields recover from recent losses, bolstering the Greenback’s strength. However, this rally may soon face headwinds, with growing market expectations of additional rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2024.
Traders are now focusing on the upcoming US Flash Manufacturing PMI, which is due for release within the hour. The PMI data will offer a fresh perspective on the health of the US manufacturing sector, and any surprise in the numbers could influence the Greenback’s near-term trajectory. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to show a slight improvement, reflecting stabilizing economic conditions, but traders remain alert for any deviations from the forecast.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 50% probability that the Fed could reduce rates by as much as 75 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.0-4.25% by the end of the year. This potential easing has kept some investors cautious, as it could curb the USD’s long-term gains.
From a technical standpoint, we are seeing a key opportunity in the USD/JPY pair, which has rebounded from a strong demand area. The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that retail traders are still heavily short on the USD/JPY, while institutional "smart money" appears to be shifting its stance, reducing its bearish exposure. This setup aligns with our previous analysis, where we highlighted the potential for a long position as the pair regains upward momentum.
As the USD/JPY continues to rebound from this demand zone, the conditions remain favorable for a long trade. The shift in sentiment among institutional traders, combined with the recovery in Treasury yields and the strength of the DXY, supports the case for further upside. However, traders should remain cautious as the Fed’s rate cut expectations may still influence broader USD sentiment in the months ahead.
For now, the focus remains on the US PMI release and its impact on both Treasury yields and the USD. Should the data come in stronger than expected, it could provide additional fuel for the DXY’s rally, further reinforcing the bullish outlook for USD/JPY. Conversely, weaker-than-expected PMI data could reignite concerns about the Fed’s dovish outlook, potentially pausing the Greenback's current rally.
We continue to monitor the situation closely, with a bullish setup in USD/JPY remaining a key focus in the near term.
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GBPJPYAs per our last mind we asked you guys which pair you want and analysis for. The public has asked for GBPJPY . Here is our view.
As of now, GBPJPY is sitting at our PBA 2 (Pullback Area). If we break above 193.290 (October 1st highs) we will continue to the upside .
However ,
If we break below our PBA 2 192.000 , we could see a downside move to our PBA 1 . Breaks below could also result in lower prices.
We advise you not to enter in any trades until breaks of either 193.290 or 192.000 .
We will send out the update once a break happens.
KEY NOTES
- GBPJPY has fallen to our PBA 2.
- Important levels to break are 193.290 or 192.000.
- Break above 193.290 would confirm higher highs.
- Break below 192.000 would confirm lower lows.
Happy trading!
FxPocket