Has Zelensky Walked Into Putin's Trap?

Some Russian state media outlets have suggested that the Kursk incursion was a "trap" for Volodymr Zelensky in which Vladimir Putin will ultimately prevail, as speculation mounts over Ukraine's objectives and end game for the daring operation.

Kremlin propagandists have tried to make sense of how Ukraine entered Russia so easily, such as RIA Novosti whose op-ed one week on from the launch of Kyiv's operation said Russian forces were "taking control of the situation." The day before, pro-Kremlin outlet Tsargrad wrote how Ukrainian brigades "fell into a trap" and faced heavy losses.

But this spinning of the narrative is at odds with accounts, including from Russian military bloggers, of Ukrainian gains, while Zelensky said on Thursday his troops had captured the town of Sudzha.

It is unsurprising that both sides would try to present their operations in the best possible light, but while there is no evidence that Ukrainian forces have fallen into a trap, what Kyiv does next and whether Putin might benefit in the longer term is uncertain.

Instead of being in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region trying to strengthen its existing line and hold as much territory as it can, Kyiv's best units are now in a place which may be vulnerable to an effective Moscow counter attack.

"There is a risk of overextending, and there is a risk that precious personnel and resources may be lost and that Putin may use this as a pretext for further escalation," said Michael A. Witt, professor of international business and strategy at King's Business School, London.

Putin might also be able to exploit domestically the narrative he has pushed all along about the war he started—that he acted because Russia is under threat from the West, of which he considers Ukraine to be a proxy agent.

"There are opposite forces at work. One is to reinforce the narrative that Russia is under threat, which can help Putin and reinforce support through a rally-around-the-flag effect," Witt told Newsweek.

"The other is to cast doubt on whether Putin and his government are the right people to defend Russia," he said. "It will probably not make much difference either way because there is no clear sign that Putin is not in control, but then, the end of dictators is rarely clearly foreseeable."

Mobilization

Russia's failure to counter the Ukrainian attack so far has exposed a lack of defensive reserves and its troop numbers on the front line in eastern and southern Ukraine are dwindling due to high casualties. This has exposed Russia's shortage of troops and the Kremlin's move to increase recruitment bonuses does not appear to be working.

However, Putin may be forced into a mobilization more widespread that the partial draft he announced in September 2022, according to Bloomberg.

Citing unnamed sources close to the Russian Defense Ministry, the outlet said a new mobilization could take place by the end of the year and be presented as a rotation measure to rest front-line troops.

"Putin will certainly use this to strengthen its ranks," Vuk Vuksanovic, associate at the London School of Economics think tank, LSE IDEAS, told Newsweek.

He said it could also be used by Putin "to build support in Russian society for its perspective on the war's causes and say to the Russian domestic audience, 'This is why our border with Ukraine is so sensitive and so vulnerable, and this is why we cannot allow Ukraine to be part of NATO.'"

Emil Kastehelmi, a military expert from the Finland-based open-source intelligence analysis firm Black Bird Group, said that the incursion risks attrition of Ukraine's precious reserves when it still has issues with manpower.

"Taking over a few dozen Russian border villages at the expense of many lives and pieces of equipment won't help," he told Newsweek. "Generally, the war won't be solved in Kursk, the most strategically important regions are still eastern and southern Ukraine."

Meanwhile, Vuksanovic said there is a question mark over why Kyiv is proceeding with the push when its forces "are being overwhelmed" in Ukraine's Donbas region. Even if it were to expose the limitations of Russia's leadership, "wars are not won based on the political embarrassments you inflict upon your adversary."

"This move might end up in Ukraine wasting the resource it lacks most in this war, which is manpower."

Vuksanovic believes part of Ukraine's aim for the incursion is to elicit support from the West by proving that Kyiv still has some fight left in it. "This is particularly important for Ukraine since they are wary of the outcome of the U.S. presidential elections, and there is a risk that the Trump administration will halt aid to Ukraine."

World War II

In fact it was Trump who invoked past Moscow triumphs last month, telling Fox News he had told Zelensky in a phone conversation that Kyiv faced a "war machine" and that "they beat Hitler. They beat Napoleon."

Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia, John. J. Sullivan, said that while Trump omitted Moscow's losses against Japan in 1905 and "most significantly, the Cold War," the former president's comments highlighted how the Kremlin is not deterred by early setbacks.

"The victory in the Great Patriotic War (WWII) was after catastrophic failures at the start of the war which predated the Nazi invasion in the Winter War with Finland," Sullivan told Newsweek before the start of the Kursk incursion.

"This is what the Russians have done over a long, long time and they should not be underestimated and the Ukrainians certainly are not underestimating them," added Sullivan, whose book Midnight in Moscow outlines the run-up to Putin's invasion.

On Thursday, Zelensky's top commander, Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi, said military command had been set up in Kursk while the Ukrainian president reiterated Kyiv's claim that it now controlled more than 80 settlements and over 440 square miles.

"While there is always going to be risks associated with any war maneuver, Ukraine faced a greater risk by continuing to fight a war of attrition with Russia," Robert Orttung, professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University, told Newsweek.

"There was no way it was going to win that and likely faced eventual defeat given Russia's access to more men and material. By invading the aggressor's territory, Ukraine is starting to take the initiative."