Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

FOMC participants' inflation forecasts were consistently lowered before the pandemic, when inflation was mostly below 2%. Forecasts rose from 2021 onward, when inflation surged. Our Letter looks at the performance of these forecasts over time. https://sffed.us/3URWvOn

Our latest report from our Community Development researchers quantifies a variety of #homeownership opportunities beyond traditional single-family homes. From condos, housing cooperatives, shared units, and other options, this research brief looks at different housing types that facilitate flexibility for people who are in low-and moderate-income (LMI) households. The research shows that different housing types make up a much smaller share of the nation’s housing stock than single-family houses, which are increasingly unaffordable to LMI households. Learn more about the activity around different homeownership and #lending types: https://sffed.us/3UQgbC9

To deepen the SF Fed's understanding of technology and #GenAI, we recently spent some time in #Oregon. Read our latest Beyond the Numbers post for insights from the roundtable conversation that our EVP and Director of Economic Research Sylvain Leduc held with CEOs and senior executives representing Oregon-based tech companies. They cover: • The next generation of needed skills • Fundamental elements of data, computational capacity, and energy • Why listening and learning are important Take a look at the findings in our recent blog post: https://sffed.us/3C0igFa

SEP inflation forecasts are based on each FOMC meeting participant’s view of the appropriate path of monetary policy. Our Letter looks at the positive correlation between revisions to SEP forecasts for the federal funds rate and revisions to SEP inflation forecasts. https://sffed.us/3URWvOn

We’re grateful for the service of veterans at the SF Fed, and for the service of all those who have fought to protect our nation.

Please join us on December 4 for a live presentation on artificial intelligence and the work of the future from David Autor, the Daniel (1972) and Gail Rubinfeld Professor of Economics at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. This is a virtual event, open to everyone. It will be livestreamed and a recording will be available after the event. We invite you to register and submit a question for the Q&A here: https://lnkd.in/gHnR5Pbq

Are you a #SmallBusiness owner or do you work with one? We need your help--by taking the Small Business Credit Survey (SBCS). The SBCS is a national survey that collects data on small businesses' financial needs, business performance, and emerging issues. Get your #SmallBusiness voice heard! The deadline is November 1. The 2023 survey provided critical information for researchers, policymakers, and lenders by highlighting the challenges business owners are facing. Help shape the future of small businesses by participating in this important survey. https://sffed.us/40kEqvZ

The latest edition of Fedviews is now available, authored by Sylvain Leduc: The economy appears to be approaching a soft-landing. Headline PCE inflation declined from 7.2% in June 2023 to 2.2% in August 2024, just above the Fed’s 2% longer-run goal. Unemployment rose modestly to 4.1% over that period, a level that remains low by historical standards. Prime-age labor force participation improved notably over the past three years, helping to boost production and ease inflationary pressures. Gains in the participation rate of prime age women, which is at a historical high, have been important to the recovery. Labor productivity has been growing at an annualized pace of about 2.5% over the past year, near the rate of the 1995-2005 period when major advances in information and communications technologies occurred. AI advances have the potential to further boost productivity growth. The core goods sector has experienced deflation in recent quarters, while core services inflation remains about 1.5 percentage points above its pre-pandemic level. Further declines in core services inflation are needed for headline PCE inflation to reach the Fed’s 2% goal. For more insights into the current state of the economy and monetary policy, check out the latest from Fedviews: https://sffed.us/40ntvl9

We're live now--join us for this insightful conversation on AI and worker productivity!

Join us for a live discussion on #generativeAI and worker productivity with Michael Schwarz, chief economist at Microsoft, and Sylvain Leduc, our Director of Economic Research. RSVP for the livestream ⏬