'Kamala-mania' also catching on in Europe

An "amazing phenomenon" — that is what Amy Porter, a spokesperson for Democrats Abroad, or DA, calls what's happened in France over the last week. Since President Joe Biden's decision to pass the baton to Vice President Kamala Harris, Porter said the organization, which represents the US' Democrat party globally, has seen a surge in registration of new voters and in volunteers offering to help on the campaign.

Perhaps more remarkably, she told DW, they've had "local people, French people, non-US citizens reaching out to us and saying, 'I would like to help'" get Harris elected. In her decades volunteering with the organization, Porter said she's only seen this "once in a blue moon."

Apathy among American voters abroad

The US government's Federal Voting Assistance Program estimates there are 2.8 million Americans living overseas who are eligible to vote in federal elections. In 2016, according to the program's calculations, only 6.9% of them did so.

Democrats hope they're now seeing some of that untapped potential activated. DA said registrations to vote outside the US via the Federal Post Card Application have quintupled in the first three days of this week, rising to more than 3,000, compared with the same period last week. This process registers voters of either party, but DA said the number of its new members also tripled from Monday to Wednesday.

And similar to what Democratic fundraisers have seen in the US, Porter said money from Americans — foreign citizens are not allowed to donate to US election campaigns — is also pouring into DA. "We do get donations regularly, but this is off the charts," she said.

Finland feels the fever 

Dana Freling founded Finland's chapter of Democrats Abroad after Donald Trump took office in 2017. She said she's seen a similar groundswell of new volunteers in recent days, including Finns who she says are concerned about the former president's attitude toward NATO. Finland joined NATO in 2023 after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine and shares a 1,340 kilometer (about 830-mile) border with Russia. 

"Physical security here in Finland is dependent on how the US president leads this alliance," she said. "And we do feel that our security depends on how our president supports this very important network of NATO."

Even before joining the alliance Trump loves to berate, Finns were well acquainted with him, having hosted the summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin where Trump famously expressed trust in Putin's word over the FBI that the Kremlin had not meddled in the 2016 US elections.

Despite this, Freling acknowledged she'd met people "who were really on the fence about Biden, who were unhappy because of different geopolitical situations that have come up around the world, and [who said] they weren't sure they were going to vote for [him]."

While foreign policy is not considered one of Harris' strengths, she has made her views on Russia clear — at the last Munich Security Conference, for example, where she confirmed support for Ukraine and assured allies that the Biden administration's "sacred commitment to NATO remains ironclad."

Freling said the abrupt surge in support for a Harris presidency has erased the apathy and convinced even Republicans like her brother in Texas to change tickets. She says he went from dismissing Harris to deciding to vote for her. 

Just wishful thinking, Republicans say

But Mike Kulbickas, a Republican voter who's lived in Brussels for decades and has represented the party in local debates, said this talk of a surge is just wishful thinking on the Democrats' part. He said "most Republicans think it's going to be at least as easy as it was, maybe easier" to beat Harris, should she be confirmed as the nominee.

"Of course, the fact that she's a woman and that she's a minority will have some kind of an energizing effect on some voters," he acknowledged.

But he said he doesn't believe there will be "any 'bounce' whatsoever" that results in a significant change in the outcome of the election.

"It's clearly something that Democrats would like to be the case," he said. But "it's political spin, so I don't believe anything polls say about the situation at the moment."

Kulbickas said in his conversations about the 2024 election and Trump's views on Europe, people are not so much concerned about a potential second Trump term as curious. He wouldn't expect big changes from the first Trump administration, although he admits Ukraine policy is difficult to predict. 

As for NATO, "[Trump's] position was always that NATO members need to do more to show their commitment to the alliance in terms of their spending and that's an objective fact," he added.

While Republicans Overseas is not officially an arm of the Republican party, unlike Democrats Abroad, Kulbickas believes its members are more reliable voters than the Democrats and that at the moment, they are "as energized as they were before, if not more, by this change" in candidates.

Use it or lose it?

DA's Porter emphasized that overseas voters have proven they can turn the tide in close contests. "The margin of victory for Biden in Georgia and Arizona was smaller [in 2020] than the number of international votes," she explained, referring to the US swing states that could go either way in 2024.

DA is trying to maximize this new energy throughout its 52 chapters. "It's really all hands on deck now," said Freling.

"All over the world, people [are] having phone banking campaigns, on-the-ground registration events […] It's not just about Vice President Harris at the top of the ticket, it's about the Senate, the Congress, and all the way down the ballot."

Edited by: Cathrin Schaer