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I'm a writer. I like words.

Sometimes words are the best instrument for assessing a player. Sometimes they just get in the way of a good stat that can more or less speak for itself.

This article is my attempt to stand back and let the numbers have their say, forming a sort of repository of the stats I'll be citing over and over again this Draft Prep season.

Though truth be told, there are still far too many words. 

  1. You may have heard about the dip in Roki Sasaki's fastball velocity during his final year in Japan, from 98.8 mph in 2023 to 96.8 mph in 2024. What you may not have heard is how much it reduced the pitch's effectiveness. The higher-velocity fastball in 2023 had a whiff rate of 24.0 percent, according to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, which would be akin to Chris Sale. The lower-velocity fastball in 2024 had a whiff rate of 13.1 percent, which would be akin to Chris Flexen.
  2. Statcast estimates that Isaac Paredes would have hit seven more home runs if he had played every game at Daikin Park (the Astros home) last year and that Cody Bellinger would have hit six more if he had played every game at Yankee Stadium. Both players' new homes are among their top three venues for expected home runs.
  3. Speaking of putting things in their rightful place, you may have heard that the Orioles are shortening the left field fence by 13 feet in some places and 26 feet in others after pushing all of it back 30 feet three years ago. Ryan Mountcastle stands to be the biggest beneficiary. He hit 33 home runs in the final year of the old dimensions and, according to Statcast, would have anywhere from 10 to 15 more home runs over the past three years if he had played in a more neutral environment.
  4. For all the favorable park shifts, I have to address the other side of the coin. Statcast suggests that Gleyber Torres would have hit six fewer home runs if he had played every game at Comerica Park last year and 12 fewer if he had played every game there over the past three years.
  5. Only twice in eight seasons has Ozzie Albies missed the mark for Fantasy, delivering an OPS in the low .700s in both 2022 and 2024. Those were also the years when he missed extensive time due to injuries, suffering a couple broken bones in each, which makes for an easy scapegoat. But those also happen to be the only two years in his entire career when the league home run-to-fly ball rate was below 12 percent. On a related note, his exit velocities generally rank in the bottom half of the league.
  6. Austin Riley's 2024 may go down as a misstep, but he had seemingly course corrected before fracturing the hamate bone in his right hand in August, batting .292 with 16 homers and a .942 OPS in his final 57 games.
  7. Matt Olson's 2024 may also go down as a misstep, but from Aug. 1 on, he was the top first baseman in Fantasy, batting .289 (58 for 201) with 12 homers and a .933 OPS. Notably, he cut his strikeout rate to 18.6 percent during that stretch. It was 28.1 percent prior.
  8. If you're wondering how William Contreras became a distant No. 1 at catcher, note that attrition hit the position especially hard last year. Adley Rutschman batted .194 with a .564 OPS over the final three months, and his struggles align closely with a foul tip off the hand in late June. Will Smith's struggles date all the way back to May 1, after which point he hit .216 with a .708 OPS. Moving further down the rankings, Logan O'Hoppe hit .196 with a .578 OPS after the All-Star break, and Ryan Jeffers hit .198 with a .616 OPS in his final 86 games.
  9. A couple of injury-prone players reiterated in 2024 just how impactful they can be when healthy. Carlos Correa's 3.33 Head-to-Head points per game were basically on par with Trea Turner's 3.35. Christian Yelich's 3.78 Head-to-Head points per game were better than Mookie Betts' 3.75.
  10. Even though Juan Soto hit a career-high 41 home runs, he was actually the biggest underachiever by xSLG, delivering a .569 mark rather than Statcast's suggested .646 . He was also the fifth-biggest underachiever by xBA, batting .288 rather than Statcats's suggested .316.
  11. Another big underachiever according to Statcast was Fernando Tatis, who maintains a high draft standing despite falling short of expectations the past couple years. He hit just .276 with a .492 slugging percentage in 2024 despite having a.298 xBA and .538 xSLG.
  12. On the other side of the coin is Tyler Fitzgerald, the biggest overachiever by both xBA and xSLG. The expected marks were .227 and .378. The actual marks were .280 and .497. Notably, he hit .230 and slugged .311 in 36 games to close out the season, perhaps representing the start of his regression.
  13. New Athletics shortstop Jacob Wilson's .433 batting average in the minors last year was 40 points higher than any other minor-leaguer. In fact, only one other batter who played even a single game in full-season ball (Class A or higher) hit as high as .360.
  14. Left-hander Quinn Mathews, who's in the running for a spot in the Cardinals rotation after seeing his velocity climb 4 mph last year, was the only minor-leaguer with 200 strikeouts. He was also the only minor-leaguer with 190, 180 or 175 strikeouts.
  15. C.J. Abrams hit .283 with an .858 OPS over the first three months, but those numbers plummeted to .199 and .610 over the final three months. There may have been external factors at play, seeing as he was actually sent to the minors late in the year for being spotted at a casino as late (late?) as 8 a.m.
  16. The move from LoanDepot Park to Yankee Stadium figured to be a boon for Jazz Chisholm, and indeed, he had 11 home runs and 18 stolen bases in his 46 games for the Yankees. Prorate those numbers over 150 games, and they come out to 36 home runs and 59 stolen bases.
  17. Mark Vientos earned his way into the Mets lineup with a 22 percent strikeout rate through June 30, but his 33 strikeout rate thereafter was more in line with the rest of his professional career. He managed to hit .256 during that time in part because of a .333 BABIP.
  18. Corbin Carroll was looking like the biggest bust in Fantasy through June 5, batting .192 with a .557 OPS. From that point forward, though, he was the second-best outfielder in both Rotisserie and Head-to-Head points leagues.
  19. Over the first 94 games of his career -- which were interrupted by ACL surgery, as well as separate IL stints for a strained hamstring, strained quad and strained adductor -- Royce Lewis hit .303 with a  .945 OPS. Over the next 58 games of his career -- which was his longest healthy stretch so far -- he hit .207 with a .620 OPS.
  20. On June 1, Jackson Chourio was hitting .210 with a .581 OPS. He would hit .303 with an .883 OPS the rest of the way. On June 1, Jackson Merrill was hitting .280 with a .678 OPS. He would hit .299 with a .901 OPS the rest of the way. On June 1 of his rookie season, Gunnar Henderson was hitting .201 with a .702 OPS. He would hit .276 with an .856 OPS the rest of the way. On June 1 of his rookie season, Julio Rodriguez was hitting .268 with a .737 OPS. He would hit .299 with a .925 OPS the rest of the way.
  21. Unlike Chourio and Merrill, Wyatt Langford would need until September to get up to speed, hitting half of his home runs for the season (eight) to go along with a .300 batting average, seven stolen bases and .996 OPS. Still, his 2.89 Head-to-Head points per game for the season were right in line with Chourio's 2.86 and Merrill's 2.90.
  22. Though he had a fine rookie showing overall, James Wood's nine home runs were perhaps a little disappointing given that they came in roughly half a season. To give you an idea of just how poorly his swing is configured for power at present, though, seven of those nine were hit to the opposite field.
  23. Lawrence Butler hit .262 with an .807 OPS overall, but he entered July batting .179 with a .529 OPS. From that point forward, 73 games in all, he hit .302 with 20 homers, 14 steals and a .943 OPS, dropping his strikeout rate from 30.7 to 20.6 percent.
  24. Through July 25, Sean Manaea had a 3.74 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 8.6 K/9. That's when he got a chance to see Chris Sale pitch live in person, and he came away so impressed that he decided he should throw from a low three-quarters arm slot as well, going on to deliver a 3.09 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 over his final 12 starts. His swinging-strike rate went from 11 percent before the change to 14 percent after the change.
  25. Framber Valdez's overall numbers were pretty much par for the course, but it took a 1.91 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 10.3 K/9 over his final 13 starts to get them there. This stretch coincided with an increase in curveball usage from roughly 27 percent to roughly 36 percent.
  26. For some more fun with Astros pitch selection, Hunter Brown had a 7.08 ERA through two months of play, but that's when he began fading his fastball (from 43 percent to 31 percent) for a variety of secondary offerings and went on to deliver a 2.27 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 over his final 21 appearances.
  27. Spencer Arrighetti had more double-digit-strikeout efforts (four) than either Tarik Skubal (three) or Paul Skenes (two). How is that possible for a guy who had a 4.53 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 10.6 K/9 on the year? Partly because he improved to a 2.72 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 over his final 10 appearances, during which, like Brown, he stopped using his fastball so much.
  28. Upon joining the Astros at the trade deadline last year, Yusei Kikuchi more than doubled his slider usage (taking it from about 17 percent to about 36 percent) and went on to deliver a 2.70 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 11.3 K/9 in 10 starts. Of course, he's with the Angels now.
  29. Remember the Verducci Rule, which suggested that increasing a pitcher's innings total by more than 30 from one year to the next introduced substantial injury risk? Well, it's fallen out of favor in recent years -- and for good reason -- but even so, I'd be remiss not to point out that Tarik Skubal went from throwing 85 innings in 2023 to 211 in 2024 (minors and postseason included). That's an increase of (gulp) 126 innings.
  30. If only by habit, the first place many of us look when evaluating a pitcher is ERA, and Garrett Crochet's was an unremarkable 3.58. But he led all pitchers (minimum 100 innings) with 12.9 K/9 and was a distant No. 1 in strikeout-minus-walk rate. He and Blake Snell were the only two pitchers with better than a 15 percent swinging-strike rate, much less 16 percent, and Crochet actually outperformed ERA leader Paul Skenes (and every other pitcher, for that matter) in xFIP (2.38) and SIERA (2.53).
  31. Speaking of looking beyond ERA, you might want to do the same for Sonny Gray, whose 3.84 ERA far exceeded his 3.12 FIP, 2.82 xFIP and 3.03 SIERA. The only ERA estimator that came close to matching the actual mark was his 3.67 xERA.
  32. Michael King gave up 10 home runs during the first month of 2024 for a 5.00 ERA, but only seven home runs the rest of the way for a 2.42 ERA.
  33. Over the past four seasons, Blake Snell has a 4.15 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 11.2 K/9 from April through June and a 2.56 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 12.5 K/9 from July through September.
  34. In 2023, Mitch Keller had a 3.31 ERA on July 17 and a 5.59 ERA thereafter. In 2024, he had a 3.20 ERA on Aug. 8 and a 7.29 ERA thereafter.
  35. Justin Steele went from being a Cy Young contender with a 3.06 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 in 2023 to a relative afterthought with a 3.07 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 in 2024. How does that work? Well, he won 53 percent of his starts in 2023 compared to just 21 percent in 2024.
  36. If you eliminate just two starts from Bailey Ober's register, including his season debut in which he allowed eight earned runs in 1 1/3 innings, his ERA drops from 3.98 to 3.18. Too convenient? Well, how about the fact that Shota Imanaga -- a pitcher who profiles similarly in terms of strikeouts, control and fly balls -- had just a 2.91 ERA even though his expected ERA was higher than Ober's (3.39 vs. 3.22).
  37. Armed with a new splitter, Bowden Francis joined the Blue Jays rotation Aug. 7 and had exactly four one-hit efforts (all seven innings or more) over a six-start span. In all, he had a 1.53 ERA, 0.58 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 after joining the rotation.
  38. MacKenzie Gore may have turned a corner late in the year, putting together a 1.55 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 10.0 K/9 over his final seven starts. In all, he had the second-highest BABIP (.340) among qualifying pitchers.
  39. New Dodgers left fielder Michael Conforto hit three home runs at his home park in San Francisco last year and 17 everywhere else. It's like the Dodgers know what they're doing or something.
  40. Rafael Devers played through most of last season with inflammation in both shoulders, but it only showed up in the data over the final two months, during which his bat speed and arm strength both plummeted. He also hit .205 (33 for 161) with four homers and a .624 OPS during that stretch, derailing what had been a career-best pace.
  41. As stolen base totals continued to climb in Year 2 of pickoff limits and bigger bases, five players with well-established track records reached double digits for the first time: Luis Rengifo (24), Luis Garcia (22), Willy Adames (21), Brandon Nimmo (15) and Matt Chapman (15). Whether or not they can repeat the feat is anyone's guess, but only two rank in the top half for sprint speed, Nimmo (68th percentile) and Chapman (84th percentile).
  42. By the totals, Jarren Duran's massive 2024 appeared to come out of nowhere, but his .285/.342/.492 slash line was virtually identical to his .295/.346/.482 slash line from a year earlier.
  43. Now for some hitters whose seasons went completely off the rails in a way that isn't reflected by the overall numbers. Steven Kwan hit .368 in the first three months compared to .222 in the final three. Brice Turang hit .292 in the first three months compared to .214 in the final three. Spencer Steer hit .198 with a .634 OPS in the second half.
  44. And now the other side of the coin, hitters whose full-season numbers don't fully capture how much they improved over the course of the year. Eugenio Suarez overcame a .196 batting average and .591 OPS in the first three months to hit .312 with a .974 OPS from July 1 on. Jake Burger hit 22 of his 29 home runs over the final three months to go along with a .278 batting average and .889 OPS. Cedric Mullins went from hitting .174  with a .532 OPS in his first 60 games to .277 with an .834 OPS in his final 87 games. Finally, Dansby Swanson woke up from a season-long slumber over the final two months, batting .283 with seven homers, 12 steals and an .822 OPS.
  45. As he makes his way back from Tommy John surgery, it seems appropriate to point out that the last time Jacob deGrom threw 200 innings in a season was 2019. Unfortunately, the last time he threw even 100 innings was ... also 2019.
  46. Before you judge Bo Bichette too harshly for his .225 batting average, note that he was a career .299 hitter going into last season, having never hit less than .290 in any of his first five seasons.
  47. An otherwise steady season for Corbin Burnes ended with an extreme low followed by an extreme high. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner had a 7.36 ERA in five August starts and then a 1.20 ERA in five September starts, and the story behind it, as told by The Baltimore Banner at the end of the season, is pretty fascinating. Basically, he was over-ratcheting his best pitch, the cutter, all season long, which explains why his strikeout rates were lagging. He managed to get away with it for four months, but hitters caught up in August, forcing him to get to the bottom of the problem. He recaptured the pitch's former velocity and shape and suddenly looked like prime Corbin Burnes again, or at least something close to it.
  48. Pitching across three minor-league levels in his return from Tommy John surgery, Kumar Rocker had a 71 percent strike rate and a 23 percent swinging-strike rate. Among major-leaguers with at least 140 innings, no one had higher than a 69 percent strike rate or 16 percent swinging-strike. Rocker's three-start stint in the majors wasn't nearly as dominant, but he showed flashes.
  49. Even with an oblique injury costing him six weeks in 2024, Brandon Lowe's 21 homers were the third-most among second basemen. He also had the fourth-best OPS among full-time second basemen in 2024 and trails only Ketel Marte and Jose Altuve at the position since entering the league in 2018 (minimum 1,000 plate appearances).
  50. Caleb Durbin, one of the players the Brewers acquired from the Yankees in the Devin Williams trade, isn't a highly regarded prospect or anything but has consistently delivered good stolen bases totals and strikeout-to-walk ratios in the minors. He took it to another level in the Arizona Fall League, swiping 29 bases and registering nearly three times as many walks (17) as strikeouts (six) in just 24 games. Though power isn't his strong suit, he added five home runs for good measure. The 24-year-old could be in the running for a starting job this spring.
  51. Parker Meadows' final numbers were respectable, but they understate just how productive he was after returning from the minors for good in August. He hit .296 with six home runs, five stolen bases and an .840 OPS in those 47 games, striking out 20.9 percent of the time compared to 35.1 percent in his earlier stints with the club.
  52. The most surprising recipient of a qualifying offer this offseason was Nick Martinez, who wound up accepting the one-year, $21.05 million deal to stay with the Reds. Their willingness to offer it to a journeyman with modest career numbers perhaps says something about the 3.10 ERA and 1.03 WHIP he put together in 2024, which you might presume was bolstered by his 26 relief appearances. But Martinez was actually at his best when he returned to the rotation for 11 starts in August and September, putting together a 2.42 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and 7.6 K/9 to make him the best eighth-best pitcher in points leagues during that stretch.
  53. Ryne Nelson found success for the Diamondbacks late in the year in a most unconventional way. He threw his fastball upward of 60 percent of the time, and the result was a 3.13 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 8.9 K/9 over his final 13 appearances. Compare that to Brandon Pfaadt, who had a 6.60 ERA over his final 12 appearances. The two may be competing for a rotation spot this spring.
  54. Rounding out a trio of obscure pitcher sleepers Mike Soroka, who signed with the Nationals as a starter after working mostly in relief for the White Sox last season. He figured something out in his final 15 appearances, though, most of them being of the multi-inning variety. Spamming his slider upward of 40 percent of the time, he put together a 1.95 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and an incredible 15.3 K/9 rate.
  55. After struggling in his previous stints with the Guardians, Kyle Manzardo returned Sept. 1 to hit .270 (17 for 63) with five home runs and an .873 OPS. It may have contributed to the team's decision to trade Josh Naylor in the offseason.
  56. Beginning with an 11-strikeout, two-hit effort on July 27, Spencer Schwellenbach had a 2.47 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 9.6 K/9 over his final 12 starts. Factoring in the entirety of his rookie season, he was one of just four pitchers (minimum 100 innings) to throw 69 percent of his pitches for strikes and one of just 14 with better than a 13.5 percent swinging-strike rate.
  57. Jared Jones' rookie season is remembered most for the 10-start stretch at the beginning in which he had a 3.05 ERA as well as 18 percent swinging-strike rate that would have been good enough to lead the league. But in 12 starts thereafter, he had a 5.17 ERA and an 11 percent swinging-strike rate that's about as middling as it gets.
  58. Reynaldo Lopez's outlandish success in his return to the starting role didn't make a ton of sense when he had 8.8 K/9 and an 11 percent swinging-strike rate through 19 starts. But somewhere in between separate IL stints for forearm inflammation and shoulder inflammation in the second half, he unlocked a new level of dominance, not only delivering a 1.74 ERA over his final seven appearances but doing so with 13.4 K/9 and a 15 percent swinging-strike rate.
  59. AL Rookie of the Year winner Luis Gil had a 1.82 as late as June 8. He had a 4.92 ERA thereafter, which amounted to roughly two-thirds of his season.
  60. Remember how bad A.J. Puk was as a starter for the Marlins early last season? It helps obscure how good he was as a reliever for the Diamondbacks, putting together a 1.32 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 14.2 K/9 in his 30 appearances with the team. Now if they would only reintroduce him to the closer role.