Thai heiress brings back divisive dynasty - but for how long?

Paetongtarn Shinawatra brings a fresh, young face, and yet another member of the powerful Shinawatra clan, to the country’s top job.

She is the daughter of Thaksin Shinawatra, the deposed former PM who returned to Thailand last August after 15 years in exile.

The 37-year-old is also the youngest prime minister in Thailand’s history, and only the second woman - the first was her aunt Yingluck Shinawatra.

Known in Thailand by her nickname Ung Ing, Ms Paetongtarn has become a very familiar figure here since leading her party, Pheu Thai, in the general election last year. She proved a popular campaigner, speaking at rallies up to the last month of pregnancy with her second child.

However her family, in particular her mother Potjaman, who is still a powerful figure in Pheu Thai, did not want her to become prime minister, fearing she would be vulnerable to the kinds of legal interventions which forced both Ms Yingluck and Mr Thaksin into exile.

But the unexpected court ruling that brought down the premiership of Srettha Thavisin earlier this week forced the family’s hand. Aside from Mr Srettha, Pheu Thai had just two other registered PM candidates eligible to replace him; Ms Paetongtarn was one, the other an elderly former prosecutor who the party’s MPs believed did not have the energy or charisma to lead them into the next election, expected in three years time.

Ms Paetongtarn’s main experience has been working in the Shinawatra-owned Rende hotel group. She was not expected to go into politics, and only joined the Pheu Thai party in 2021.

In taking on the job of prime minister, she is entering a political minefield.

She describes herself as a compassionate capitalist, a social liberal who fully supports Thailand’s new equal marriage law.

But the phrase most people will remember her using is "daddy’s girl". No matter what she does in government, she will always be presumed to be acting under the instruction of her father. And Mr Thaksin remains a very divisive figure.

His return from exile a year ago was the outcome of a grand bargain with powerful conservative forces. They include the military, which deposed two Shinawatra governments in coups, and groups close to the monarchy, which have opposed Mr Thaksin for more than two decades.

The stunning success of the reformist Move Forward party in last year’s election, pushing Pheu Thai and the Shinawatra clan into second place for the first time, forced conservatives, whose parties fared even worse, to recalibrate.

With Move Forward pushing for reform of the lese majetse law and the powers of the military, Pheu Thai, whose free-spending populism is now being copied by many other parties, was no longer the main threat.

So Pheu Thai was allowed to cobble together a coalition of 11 parties, many of them long-term enemies of Mr Thaksin, to keep Move Forward out.

But the mistrust of Mr Thaksin never went away.

The unstated condition of his return, and the royal pardon given to him by King Vajiralongkorn, was that he would keep a low profile and, as he had promised from exile, spend his time with his grandchildren.

Officially Mr Thaksin is not even a member of Pheu Thai. But even in exile Mr Thaksin constantly interfered, often to the detriment of his party. He is still presumed to be the Pheu Thai’s main financial backer. And since being released on parole earlier this year he has been both visible and vocal at party events.

Some have accused Mr Thaksin of pushing for Mr Srettha's cabinet appointment of a lawyer who was convicted in 2008 of trying to bribe a supreme court judge with a shopping bag full of cash.

Back then the judge had been about to rule on a criminal case against Mr Thaksin.

On Wednesday the constitutional court, known for repeatedly ruling against the Shinawatra clan, found that appointment was unethical and sufficient grounds for dismissing Mr Srettha. The ruling is being interpreted in Thailand as a warning to Mr Thaksin to rein in his ambitions.

He was also charged earlier this year with lese majeste, over comments he made nine years ago in exile - a case with potentially serious consequences which may hang over him for years.

All of this makes Ms Paetongtarn’s job even more difficult. Pheu Thai’s past success was built on its reputation for driving the economy, and improving the living standards of poorer Thais.

But Thailand’s economy is now being held back by long-term structural challenges - and they are unresponsive to the populist measures tried by previous Shinawatra-led governments.

The party’s signature policy in the last election - a one-time payment of 10,000 baht ($284; £221) via a digital wallet to most of the population - has run into opposition from the central bank and others over its cost to the public purse.

The party has little else in its policy arsenal to lift its political fortunes over the next three years. It will also face constant and effective opposition from the reformist Move Forward Party, now reconstituted as the People’s Party, after being dissolved by the constitutional court last week.

And Pheu Thai finds itself in a coalition where for the first time it’s share of seats is less than half. Its conservative political partners also have little incentive to see a Pheu Thai-led administration achieve enough success to start rebuilding its once-formidable support base among voters.

All four of the last Shinawatra-led governments were ousted before the end of their elected terms by constitutional court rulings or military coups.

Ms Paetongtarn will be hoping to break that dismal record, but given the unending turmoil in Thai politics the odds do not look good.