Paris 2024 Olympic Marathon selection dramas, why Jessica Stenson gets the nod over Lisa Weightman

Selecting a marathon team is an unenviable task at the best of times — an issue that has reared its head in a big way for Australia's women's team ahead of the Paris Olympics.

Athletics Australia named Sinéad Diver, Genevieve Gregson and Jessica Stenson to its women's team after weeks of controversy and recriminations.

With six athletes all running under the qualification standard, Athletics Australia has had to make some tough calls, breaking the hearts of three athletes while fulfilling the dreams of three others.

Realistically, nobody was ever going to be happy.

Yet the debate in Australia has reached near-poisonous levels, with former Olympians wading in with their opinions and families being left "heartbroken".

Here's how it's come to this.

What are the Olympic qualification requirements?

National bodies are allowed to select as many as three runners in their marathon squad, as long as they all have achieved a time under the qualification standard within the allotted period — in this case by running a time of 2 hours, 26 minutes and 50 seconds between November 6, 2022, to May 5, 2024.

Incredibly, six Australian women all ran under that time: Diver, Gregson, Lisa Weightman, Isobel Batt-Doyle, Stenson and Eloise Wellings.

Objectively, the fairest way would be to select the three fastest runners to the squad.

But in marathon running, that's not always so straightforward.

After all, the very best runners only race two or three times a year — and not always against each other.

Simply put, there are too many variables on the road.

For example, a women's only race will overall be slower than a race in which men start at the same time, the men in the field essentially pace-making the women to a faster time (the women's only marathon world record is 2:16:16 — set by Peres Jepchirchir in London this year, with the fastest ever Tigst Assefa's 2:11:53 from Berlin in September last year).

Then there are weather conditions, the difficulty of the course, and the level of competition.

It makes selection something of a poisoned chalice.

Which Australians were selected?

Athletics Australia has named Diver, Gregson and Stenson as the three-woman squad to compete at the Games of the 33rd Olympiad. 

However, it caused quite a stir, with Weightman — who ran the third-fastest time in the qualification period — particularly aggrieved.

Had Weightman been selected, she would have become the first Australian athletics competitor to compete in five Olympics.

"I am of course disappointed by the decision given that I fought hard and fair to gain my qualification time," Weightman said in a statement.

"However, what I am most disappointed about is AA's own internal systems and procedures that have allowed this outcome and which, unless corrected, will negatively impact future Australian athletes and their legitimate claims to represent Australia."

Weightman's good friend and fellow Olympian Sally Pearson said she was "shocked" at the decision and described Athletics Australia as being "in crisis" in a column on news.com.au.

"This is about so much more than her [Weightman's] omission from the team," Pearson wrote.

"I'm disappointed with the national selection panel, but I'm more shocked at the integrity of Athletics Australia and how this has become a total farce."

The bitterness also blew over into social media.

Her husband, Lachlan McArthur, asked Stenson to take down an old photo of her standing with Weightman with her son after a race that was on her Twitter/X profile.

After Stenson changed her X cover photo, McArthur wrote: "Thank you @JessTrengove for taking down the photo. It is much appreciated. We have a heartbroken family here".

He then deleted his account.

So who was fastest?

Diver has the fastest time of an Australian woman in that period, her 2:21.34 on the flat Valencia course in December 2022 booking the 47-year-old Ireland-born runner her spot at a second-straight Olympics following her appearance in the Tokyo Games of 2021.

It will make Diver, from the Irish-speaking Gaeltacht region of west County Mayo, Australia's oldest-ever athletics competitor at an Olympics, a record she already holds from Tokyo.

After Diver, things get very tight — the next four women's best times in the last 18 months can be split by only 58 seconds, or less than 1 per cent of their overall race time.

In fact, the times of Gregson (2:23:08), Weightman (2:23:15) and Batt-Doyle (2:23:27) are less than 30 seconds apart.

Given Gregson and Batt-Doyle both ran their times in the same race, that is a reasonable tie-breaker between the pair.

Crucially, one of Weightman's five marathons over the qualification period was also at that 2023 Valencia marathon, when she finished behind both Gregson and Batt-Doyle with a time of 2:24:18.

The same goes for Wellings, whose 2:25:47 was mighty impressive, but slower than Gregson, Batt-Doyle and Weightman under identical conditions at the 2023 Valencia event.

Weightman vs Stenson

The third-fastest Australian qualifier was Weightman, who ran 2:23:15 in Osaka in February last year — one of five marathons she ran in the qualification period, all of which she ran under the standard.

Those five marathons were five of the six fastest times she has ever run — it's hard to argue that the 45-year-old was anything other than in the best shape of her career.

Stenson, the 2022 Commonwealth Games champion, only ran two marathons in the qualification period, opening with a ninth-place finish at the 2022 New York Marathon in a hugely credible 2:27:27, before powering to a personal best time of 2:24:01 on the super-flat roads of Daegu, South Korea.

There was a good reason for Stenson's lack of activity though — the pregnancy and birth of her second child, which came just six months before her Daegu run.

One of Weightman's husband's arguments was that Weightman had beaten Stenson in a head-to-head seven times out of eight.

However, thanks to her 2022 Commonwealth Games victory, in terms of big events, Stenson perhaps has the edge.

Weightman says she appealed the decision to the National Sports Tribunal (NST), which returned the nomination decision to Athletics Australia.

In a statement printed by news.com.au, Weightman said: "The NST was critical of AA's handling of this nomination decision including its failure to properly understand or apply its own nomination criteria.

"Notwithstanding the NST's recommendation for AA to convene a new and independent selection committee to re-determine the matter (i.e. to avoid the risk of potential bias), AA's original selection committee simply re-affirmed its original decision."

What did Athletics Australia say?

In a statement last Thursday, Athletics Australia president Jane Flemming said that she understood the process was "distressing for athletes who miss selection" and that it was a "difficult task" made harder by the "unprecedented" depth in Australian distance running.

"Athletics Australia acknowledges the difficult task of Olympic nomination and selection where there are more athletes qualified than positions available," Flemming's statement read.

"The depth in women's marathon in Australia is to be applauded and is unprecedented and in previous years, selection has been much more straightforward.

"As an Olympian, I have seen decades of Olympic teams selected and it is not unusual for there to be debate over decisions of a selection panel … an appeals process exists for this reason.

"We understand this can be distressing for athletes who miss selection and these matters are often highly charged, however the independent body of selectors is made up of industry experts, who understand Athletics Australia's nomination policy and the nuances of the sport."

She wrote that Athletics Australia supported the selection panel and was "satisfied" that the policy was followed when nominating athletes for Paris.

"To date, some media and social media commentary regarding this selection has been baseless, unfounded and damaging to the sport and individuals involved," she wrote.

"Any allegations that Athletics Australia or Athletics Australia's selection panel has not acted with integrity is also defamatory, and simply not true.

"Our deepest sympathy goes to those athletes that have not been selected for Paris. 

"Athletes have trained for countless hours and dedicated their lives to this point, but with only three spots available, selectors rely on the selection criteria, which includes a combination of metrics and discretion, given that each marathon and the conditions in which they are raced are all different."

Gregson's heartbreak

Incidentally, Gregson has had her own history of selection battles with Athletics Australia.

In 2012, Gregson, then known by her maiden name, LaCaze, ran the qualification time for the 3,000m steeplechase for the London 2012 Games, two days after an Athletics Australia deadline — a deadline she said was impossible due to her college commitments in the United States.

Despite Athletics Australia's high-performance manager Eric Hollingsworth saying she should not compete, she was eventually allowed to do so.

She competed in the steeplechase in the next two Games, as well as in the 5,000m in Rio.

Gregson's steeplechasing career would end in heartache though, as the then-31-year-old ruptured her right Achilles tendon over the final water jump of the race in Tokyo.

After recovering, Gregson made the step up to marathon and nailed a superb time of 2:23:08 in Valencia, in December last year to put herself in contention.

What about countries that have loads of qualifiers?

Australia might have had a rough decision to make, but spare a thought for those in the east African powerhouse nations of Ethiopia and Kenya.

Ethiopia had an incredible 98 women run under the qualifying time of 2:26:50 during the qualification period, while Kenya had 66.

It was similar in the men's field: Ethiopia had 62 reach the qualifying standard of 2:08:10, while Kenya had 72.

With countries limited to just three entries, that's a lot of runners who have the potential to feel hard done by — especially given some of the odd choices that have been made in the past.

This year was no exception, with the Kenyan selection raising eyebrows for both squads.

Much of the consternation surrounded the inclusion of former world record holder Brigid Kosgei, who takes her spot alongside defending champion Peres Jepchirchir and Hellen Obiri.

Interestingly, only one of those three — Jepchirchir, who will be aiming to become the first woman to defend her Olympic marathon crown — recorded one of the three fastest times run by a Kenyan woman during the qualification period.

Obiri's fastest time during the period was the 55th fastest run by a Kenyan over the time period — albeit on a tough course at New York in 2022, and she did also claim back-to-back Boston titles in April — while Kosegi ran the ninth fastest time in a rapid London field in April, but fell off the back of the lead pack in doing so.

Kosgei has been in relatively poor form of late, only winning one of her last five marathons — and that was against weak opposition in Abu Dhabi.

Whereas her direct opponents for that third spot, Lokedi and Rosemary Wanjiru finished second in Boston and Tokyo respectively and can both feel incredibly hard done by.

But even they didn't record the fastest time by a Kenyan during the qualifying period — that was Ruth Chepngetich, who ran 2:15:37 in Chicago last October.

The Ethiopian team features world record holder Tigst Assefa, defending world champion Amane Beriso Shankule (who recorded the first and second fastest times of Ethiopian women this year), and Megertu Alemu, who ran the seventh-fastest time in coming fourth at London.

Eliud Kipchoge going for three in a row

On the men's side, Timothy Kiplagat also missed out on selection in favour of two-time defending champion Eliud Kipchoge — despite running the second-fastest time of 2024 in Tokyo.

Kipchoge would arguably have been a no-brainer in any case.

The distance-running legend could become the first person to win three gold medals in the Olympic marathon, and still ran the third-fastest time during the qualification period, winning Berlin in 2:02:42.

It also sets up the thrilling prospect of one final head-to-head with Ethiopian great Kenenisa Bekele, who earned his spot in the Ethiopia team after finishing second in London. 

The sight of two of long-distance running's greatest ever going at it once more on the biggest stage is one of the great stories of the Games. 

That being said, on either side of winning in Berlin, Kipchoge ran the two worst marathons of his career — finishing sixth in Boston in 2023 in what was his slowest ever time, and recording his lowest-ever marathon finishing position by coming 10th in Tokyo. 

His worst career performances have tended to be in hilly marathons — he's never run New York and his best result in Boston was that sixth place in 2023.

With the Paris course including a whopping 436m of elevation gain over the 42km, perhaps the authorities should have looked to results at New York and Boston, with 246 and 248m of elevation respectively as a better guide to performance.

Australia's men's marathon team didn't have the same degree of controversy as the women's.

Oceania record holder Brett Robinson and two-time Olympian Patrick Tiernan both booked their spots by running under the 2:08:10 qualifying time.

However, Liam Adams, who expected to qualify for the 80-man field on his ranking points after running 2:08:39 on the Gold Coast, has not been named.

Adams said he "was in complete shock" when he discovered the spots he thought he was placed in had been given to "universality places".