geckler

geckler

The belly of the yield curve looks particularly rich now. We've priced in more FOMC hikes than I think will come to pass.

geckler

Not since 2013 has the ratio of front month VSTOXX to front month VIX futures been so blown out. We see limited US equity upside and view the Greece situation as resolving without an immediate credit event when push comes to shove. According to a Kappa Research survey published in Greek weekly To Vima, 71.9% of those surveyed said a deal with creditors would be...

geckler

Came into 2015 negative on equities with very high cash levels. For a number of fundemental and risk profile reasons we are reluctant to allocate to equites. However, on a technical basis the $SPY has spent Q1 in two defined trading ranges if the recent lows in SPY hold the market will have put in a higher low. The bull market since 2009 has been defined by ever...

geckler

The start of the Arab Spring cemented prices in a range above $80 where market forces and shale production might have otherwise forced prices down in 2012. The late summer Obama ordered airstrikes on ISIS after the group overran Mosul - this action all but took a Basra Iraq supply disruption off the table as clearly the US would defend Baghdad and all production...

geckler

The small deviations are buying opportunities the large ones are bad times...

geckler

IBB closed below lower BBs for only the 5th time in the last couple years Friday on some pretty "janky" headlines if you ask me about Henry A. Waxman (D-Beverly Hills) wants Gilead Sciences Inc. to explain why it priced its new hepatitis C drug, Sovaldi, at $1,000 a pill. Considering nobody asked any questions about the targeted oncology drugs are even more and...

geckler

Old LBR Group 5EMA trend reversion setup -- basically after 5 above or below the EMA you fade the first close on the opposite side. Trade is closed on the first close above or below EMA after reversion or at designated stop level. GM is a portfolio investment from the lows early in the month -- we've added to the position given today's opportunity.

geckler

WTI/Brent spread up to $11 today I had big short last year @ 24 Loooking for a move back down to $3 by the end of the year but expecting news of early take up of Keystone pipeline." The market has quickly accepted Libya output but failed to appreciate how delicate the situation there is the PM having just been kidnapped and works only back to work a month.

geckler

Wedge formation into year end for the Bund - given rumors of a downgrade and the seemingly unlimited talk from the ECB - either way the market realizes GER pass through risks or the situation deteriorates and peripheral spreads blow out and Bunds get bid to highs. I like Strangles out to Feb

geckler

Have been very bearish on EUR generally over the last few years - early to SPA 5yr at 200bps etc - however one only needs to remember back to 2010 and last year to dial up a squeeze in EURUSD - GS put out note on Draghi presser day in early August Long EURUSD and again yesterday calling for further squeeze as CFTC data shows crowd leaning stuck short