ECONOMICS:CNIRYY Inflation Data (September/2024) source: National Bureau of Statistics of China -China’s annual inflation rate stood at 0.4% in September 2024, below market forecasts and August’s figure of 0.6%. This was the 8th month of consumer inflation but was the lowest print since June, highlighting the need for more policy support from Beijing to...
Market Update - October 11th 2024 Takeaways HBO documentary seeks to unveil Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity : HBO released a documentary, “Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery,” on Tuesday that suggests an early Bitcoin developer named Peter Todd invented the cryptocurrency. Crypto.com has filed a lawsuit against the SEC after receiving a Wells notice,...
EUR/USD has just touched a key support zone on the daily chart between 1.0900 and 1.0950, an area that previously acted as resistance in March and July 2024 but now appears to be turning into support. Yesterday’s candle formed a long lower shadow, signaling a possible rejection of selling pressure and a hint of buying strength. Additionally, the 1.0950 level...
Introduction: The comparison between the energy sector (XLE) and the technology sector (XLK) provides valuable insights into current market trends. As the largest sector in the S&P 500, XLK often serves as a barometer for broader market strength. Conversely, when XLE outperforms XLK, it may signal caution, as XLE's smaller size limits its impact on the overall...
Long term TA on PL1! 1) Shorter term expectations/price target 2) Relationship to gold and silver 3)Longer term patterns and eventual price targets on a yearly timeframe. Sorry if this was longwinded. Will begin to post weekly updates so consider this a comprehensive analysis to precede, shorter, brief, weekly analyses. Feedback is recommended, please enjoy...
The euro is lower on Thursday. In the North American session, EUR/USD is trading at 1.0908, down 0.28%. The German economy has been struggling but there was positive news as German retail sales rose 1.6% in August and 1.5% in July, after declines of 1.1% in June and 1.4% in May. The four monthly releases were all published today due to a technical problem in...
ECONOMICS:USIRYY US Inflation Rate Slows Less Than Expected source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics -The annual inflation rate in the US slowed to 2.4% in September, the lowest since February 2021 but surpassing market expectations of 2.3%. Compared to the previous month, the CPI increased by 0.2%, the same as in August. Meanwhile, annual core inflation...
Nasdaq Technical Analysis Today’s inflation report is anticipated to drive significant market movements, particularly following unanimous agreement among Fed members to cut rates by 50 basis points. A CPI release exceeding 2.3% is expected to support a bearish trend towards 20100. Conversely, a CPI below 2.3% would likely drive a bullish trend, targeting...
history may not repeat itself, but it rhymes... or so they say. But in this case, so far we have an EXACT repeat, starting in 2015. The chart uses the exactly same angles and duration from the inflation we had in the 1970s. I put this together around 6 months ago and so far... it continues to track. You be the judge of what's going to happen. Of course, time...
The New Zealand dollar is sharply lower on Wednesday. NZD/USD is trading at 0.6079 in the European session, down 0.96% on the day. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered the cash rate by 50 basis points on Wednesday to 4.75%. The RBNZ cut rates by 25-bps in August, the first rate cut in over four years. The jumbo rate cut had been priced in by the markets but...
The New Zealand dollar is down for a sixth straight day and has fallen 3.6% during that time. NZD has stabilized on Tuesday and is trading at 0.6120 in the North American session, down 0.07% on the day. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand meets on Wednesday and is widely expected to a cut rates, but by how much? The markets have priced in an oversize rate cut of 50...
Silver is yet to confirm it's breakout from the 6 year bullish wedge accumulation after breaking out in 2020. Since then we've seen consolidation in the range between 20 - 30. Short term target of 36 after confirmation using the fib extension, but this, as we all know has the potential to go miles above that. A classic double bottom to wrap it all up I'm sure...
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY (Eurozone Inflation Data; September/2024) source: EUROSTAT - Annual inflation rate in the Eurozone fell to 1.8% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in August and forecasts of 1.9%, preliminary estimates showed. Inflation is now below the ECB target of 2%. Prices fell much more for energy (-6% vs -3%) and inflation...
The Swiss National Bank was the first major institution to shift to monetary easing and remains at the forefront after its third consecutive rate cut this week. However, it stuck with the small 0.25% increments, which are meager compared to the Fed’s jumbo 0.5% pivot and aggressive easing path. Furthermore, with rates already at 1%, the SNB easing runway may not...
The Japanese yen is sharply higher on Friday. USD/JPY is trading at 143.49 in the European session, down a massive 1.1%. Tokyo Core CPI, which excludes fresh food, slowed to 2% in September, down from 2's.4% in August and matching the market estimate. The drop was largely driven by the resumption of government subsidies for utility bills. The inflation reading...
The Japanese yen is sharply lower on Wednesday. In the North American session, USD/JPY is trading at 144.49, up 0.89% at the time of writing. The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates and continue on the path to normalization. The BoJ lifted rates out of negative territory in March but rates are barely above zero and the markets are expecting further...
Historically, unemployment and inflation tend to alternate each other- hence the Philips inversion curve and other trading philosophies. Inflation is not necessarily under check in my opinion, but retail and establishments are eyeing up entries here as central banks like the ECB, BOJ, and Fed start cutting their interest rates as job numbers have arguably seemed...
The yield curve is now fully inverted after reaching EXTREME levels. With that, we can conclude the recession has officially contaminated the financial sector. Soon (likely before year end) we will see a significant selloff in equities. Suggest: sell stocks & buy US Treasury Bonds.