Kenaikan harga minyak semenjak 2003: Perbezaan antara semakan
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| title=Harga Minyak Mentah BP |
| title=Harga Minyak Mentah BP |
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| publisher=Department of Energy |
| publisher=Department of Energy |
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| archiveurl=https://web.archive.org/web/20030424152757/http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/BPCrudeOilPrices.xls |
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Dari pertengahan 1980-an hingga September 2003, harga terlaras inflasi untuk se[[tong]] minyak mentah di [[Pertukaran Merkantil New York|NYMEX]] lazimnya berada di bawah $25/tong. Pada tahun 2004, harganya mencecah $40, kemudian $50. Pelbagai peristiwa telah menyebabkan harganya mencecah $60 pada 11 Ogos 2005, menembusi $75 untuk masa yang tidak lama pada pertengahan 2006, jatuh balik ke $60/tong pada awal tahun 2007, lalu naik mendadak menjadi $92/tong pada Oktober 2007 dan $99.29/tong untuk niagaan hadapan Disember di [[Bandar Raya New York]] pada 21 November 2007<ref>{{cite news |
Dari pertengahan 1980-an hingga September 2003, harga terlaras inflasi untuk se[[tong]] minyak mentah di [[Pertukaran Merkantil New York|NYMEX]] lazimnya berada di bawah $25/tong. Pada tahun 2004, harganya mencecah $40, kemudian $50. Pelbagai peristiwa telah menyebabkan harganya mencecah $60 pada 11 Ogos 2005, menembusi $75 untuk masa yang tidak lama pada pertengahan 2006, jatuh balik ke $60/tong pada awal tahun 2007, lalu naik mendadak menjadi $92/tong pada Oktober 2007 dan $99.29/tong untuk niagaan hadapan Disember di [[Bandar Raya New York]] pada 21 November 2007<ref>{{cite news |
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| publisher=BBC |
| publisher=BBC |
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| date=November 5, 2007 |
| date=November 5, 2007 |
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}}</ref> tetapi jelasnya telah ditembusi pada suku pertama tahun 2008. Dari segi harga minyak mentah, catatan AS berpandangan bahawa kali terakhir dilihat harga seumpamanya adalah pada 1860-an. Rujuk sini <ref>{http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/f000000__3a.htm}</ref>, dan laraskan untuk [[inflasi]]. Di luar AS, sejarah inflasi dan [[harga minyak]] memang berbeza, tetapi pada hakikatnya, selepas dilaras inflasi, harga yang mencecah $120 setong adalah di luar jangkaan sejak zaman terawal sekali penghasilan minyak komersil. Di AS, penggunaan petrol jatuh 0.5% pada dua bulan terawal tahun 2008 akibat harga semakin tinggi,<ref>{{cite news |
}}</ref> tetapi jelasnya telah ditembusi pada suku pertama tahun 2008. Dari segi harga minyak mentah, catatan AS berpandangan bahawa kali terakhir dilihat harga seumpamanya adalah pada 1860-an. Rujuk sini <ref>{http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/f000000__3a.htm}{{Pautan putus|date=September 2021 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}</ref>, dan laraskan untuk [[inflasi]]. Di luar AS, sejarah inflasi dan [[harga minyak]] memang berbeza, tetapi pada hakikatnya, selepas dilaras inflasi, harga yang mencecah $120 setong adalah di luar jangkaan sejak zaman terawal sekali penghasilan minyak komersil. Di AS, penggunaan petrol jatuh 0.5% pada dua bulan terawal tahun 2008 akibat harga semakin tinggi,<ref>{{cite news |
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|url=http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=87924270 |
|url=http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=87924270 |
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| title=Americans Using Less Gasoline |
| title=Americans Using Less Gasoline |
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|publisher=Slate |
|publisher=Slate |
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|date=2008-01-05}}</ref> |
|date=2008-01-05}}</ref> |
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==Punca== |
==Punca== |
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{{Double image stack|right|Oil Prices |
{{Double image stack|right|Oil Prices Since 1861.svg|Oil price chronology-june2007.gif|300|Arah aliran harga minyak, 1861–2007, nominal dan dilaras inflasi.|Analisa terperinci perubahan harga minyak dari 1970–2007. Graf ini berasaskan harga minyak nominal, bukan sebenar.}} |
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=== |
===Permintaan=== |
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Permintaan minyak mentah sedunia naik pada purata 1.76% setahun dari tahun 1994 hingga 2006, dengan pertumbuhan tertinggi 3.4% pada 2003-2004. Kenaikan permintaan adalah yang tertinggi di [[negara-negara membangun|negara membangun]].<ref name=eiaoilconsumption> |
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{{cite web |
{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilconsumption.html |
|url=http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilconsumption.html |
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|publisher=U.S. Energy Information Administration |
|publisher=U.S. Energy Information Administration |
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|accessdate=2007-12-20 |
|accessdate=2007-12-20 |
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}}</ref> |
}}</ref> Permintaan minyak sedunia dijangka naik 37% dari takat 2006 menjelang 2030, menurut laporan tahunan [[Pentadbiran Maklumat Tenaga]] (EIA) yang bertapak di Amerika Syarikat. Permintaan dijangka mencapai {{convert|118|Moilbbl/d}} dari {{convert|86|Moilbbl}} pada tahun 2006, dipacu terutamanya oleh sektor pengangkutan.<ref name=bbc062006>{{cite web |
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|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5099400.stm |
|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/5099400.stm |
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|title=World oil demand 'to rise by 37%' |
|title=World oil demand 'to rise by 37%' |
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Baris 101: | Baris 105: | ||
|publisher=U.S. [[Energy Information Administration]] |
|publisher=U.S. [[Energy Information Administration]] |
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|date=May 2007}}</ref> |
|date=May 2007}}</ref> |
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Apabila negara-negara [[Pembangunan ekonomi|membangun]], industri, [[pembandaran]] pesat dan [[taraf hidup]] lebih tinggi menaikkan penggunaan tenaga, paling banyak sekali adalah minyak. Thriving economies such as [[People's Republic of China|China]] and [[India]] are quickly becoming large oil consumers.<ref>[http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7387203.stm Oil price 'may hit $200 a barrel'], BBC News</ref> China has seen oil consumption grow by 8% yearly since 2002, doubling from 1996-2006,<ref name=eiaoilconsumption> |
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{{cite web |
{{cite web |
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|url=http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilconsumption.html |
|url=http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilconsumption.html |
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== Pautan luar dan sumber == |
== Pautan luar dan sumber == |
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*[http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/pdf/research/sdp/Oilprices0806.pdf John V. Mitchell (Associate Fellow Chatham House, London): A New Era for Oil Prices; 32 Pages, August 2006] |
*[http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/pdf/research/sdp/Oilprices0806.pdf John V. Mitchell (Associate Fellow Chatham House, London): A New Era for Oil Prices; 32 Pages, August 2006] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060811163526/http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/pdf/research/sdp/Oilprices0806.pdf |date=2006-08-11 }} |
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*[http://dhatz.blogspot.com/2006/06/oil-to-38657-per-barrel.html Oil to $386.57 per Barrel!] How derivatives drive oil prices up, despite ample supply in physical oil market, (9-Jun-06). |
*[http://dhatz.blogspot.com/2006/06/oil-to-38657-per-barrel.html Oil to $386.57 per Barrel!] How derivatives drive oil prices up, despite ample supply in physical oil market, (9-Jun-06). |
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*[http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050616-thu.html Asia/Pacific: Scary Oil] Andy Xie, MorganStanley economist for Asia, commenting on possibility that oil is financial bubble,(16-Jun-2005). |
*[http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050616-thu.html Asia/Pacific: Scary Oil] Andy Xie, MorganStanley economist for Asia, commenting on possibility that oil is financial bubble,(16-Jun-2005). |
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*[http://www.oxfordenergy.org/comment.php?0008 Explanation of pricing mechanism in oil markets] |
*[http://www.oxfordenergy.org/comment.php?0008 Explanation of pricing mechanism in oil markets] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20061028083436/http://www.oxfordenergy.org/comment.php?0008 |date=2006-10-28 }} |
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*[http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GE26Dj02.html The real problems with $50 oil], An analysis by Henry C.K. Liu in Asia Times Online, details the economic impact of high oil prices. |
*[http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GE26Dj02.html The real problems with $50 oil] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20061019060601/http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Economy/GE26Dj02.html |date=2006-10-19 }}, An analysis by Henry C.K. Liu in Asia Times Online, details the economic impact of high oil prices. |
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*[http://www.asponews.org/ The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas Newsletters] |
*[http://www.asponews.org/ The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas Newsletters] |
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*[http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/rsepResources/si/apr03/middleEast.asp Oil Prices and the Iraq War: Market Interpretations of Military Developments by U.S. Navy CCC] |
*[http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/rsepResources/si/apr03/middleEast.asp Oil Prices and the Iraq War: Market Interpretations of Military Developments by U.S. Navy CCC] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20061005014621/http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/rsepResources/si/apr03/middleEast.asp |date=2006-10-05 }} |
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*[http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/09/AR2005060900148_pf.html Top Saudi Says Kingdom Has Plenty of Oil] "261 billion barrels in reserve..." |
*[http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/09/AR2005060900148_pf.html Top Saudi Says Kingdom Has Plenty of Oil]{{Pautan putus|date=Ogos 2021 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }} "261 billion barrels in reserve..." |
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*[http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL1%21&o=&a=M&z=800x550&d=LOW&b=CANDLE&st= Graph of light crude oil price increase] |
*[http://www.futuresource.com/charts/charts.jsp?s=CL1%21&o=&a=M&z=800x550&d=LOW&b=CANDLE&st= Graph of light crude oil price increase]{{Pautan putus|date=September 2021 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }} |
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*[http://oilnergy.com/1combo.htm Oil Industry Combined Graph] Graph of oil prices in relation to other fossil fuel prices. |
*[http://oilnergy.com/1combo.htm Oil Industry Combined Graph] Graph of oil prices in relation to other fossil fuel prices. |
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*[http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html U.S. DOE EIA retail gasoline prices] |
*[http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html U.S. DOE EIA retail gasoline prices] |
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*[http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/gdu/gasdiesel.asp U.S. DOE EIA retail gasoline and diesel prices charts] |
*[http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/gdu/gasdiesel.asp U.S. DOE EIA retail gasoline and diesel prices charts] |
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*an [[The Economist|Economist]] article about oil price inflation and concerns [http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=4268274] (login required) |
*an [[The Economist|Economist]] article about oil price inflation and concerns [http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=4268274] (login required) |
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*[http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/eap/eap.nsf/Attachments/The+international+&+regional+environment/$File/chapter3.pdf World Bank article which states that US$90 per barrel is the equivalent of the 1980 oil shock] (pdf file, page 18, 473kb) |
*[http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/eap/eap.nsf/Attachments/The+international+&+regional+environment/$File/chapter3.pdf World Bank article which states that US$90 per barrel is the equivalent of the 1980 oil shock] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20050905204028/http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/eap/eap.nsf/Attachments/The+international+%26+regional+environment/%24File/chapter3.pdf |date=2005-09-05 }} (pdf file, page 18, 473kb) |
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*[http://www.gtz.de/en/themen/umwelt-infrastruktur/transport/10285.htm International Fuel Prices 2005] with diesel and gasoline prices of 172 countries |
*[http://www.gtz.de/en/themen/umwelt-infrastruktur/transport/10285.htm International Fuel Prices 2005] with diesel and gasoline prices of 172 countries |
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*[http://europa.eu |
*[http://ec.europa.eu/energy/oil/bulletin/index_en.htm EU Oil Bulletin] Fuel prices in EU countries updated weekly, includes information on taxes and VAT. |
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Semakan semasa pada 06:27, 30 September 2021
Dari pertengahan 1980-an hingga September 2003, harga terlaras inflasi untuk setong minyak mentah di NYMEX lazimnya berada di bawah $25/tong. Pada tahun 2004, harganya mencecah $40, kemudian $50. Pelbagai peristiwa telah menyebabkan harganya mencecah $60 pada 11 Ogos 2005, menembusi $75 untuk masa yang tidak lama pada pertengahan 2006, jatuh balik ke $60/tong pada awal tahun 2007, lalu naik mendadak menjadi $92/tong pada Oktober 2007 dan $99.29/tong untuk niagaan hadapan Disember di Bandar Raya New York pada 21 November 2007[2] Sepanjang separuh pertama tahun 2008, minyak sering mencatat harga tinggi yang memecah rekod. Pada 29 Februari 2008, harga minyak mencapai $103.05 setong,[3] lalu mencapai $110.20 pada 12 Mac,[4] iaitu rekod keenam dalam tujuh hari berniaga.[5] [6] Harga minyak pada 27 Jun 2008 mencecah $141.71 setong, untuk serahan bulan Ogos di NYMAX (selepas baru mencatat $140.56 setong), di sebalik ugutan Libya untuk mengurangkan pengeluaran, serta ramalan presiden OPEC bahawa harga mungkin mencecah $170 menjelang musim panas (di hemisfera utara).[7][8] Harga setong maksimum paling terkini ialah $143.67 yang tercatat pada 29 Jun 2008.[9]. Harga yang menghampiri takat $95–105 setong (dolar AS 2007) adalah setara dengan rekod terlaras inflasi sepanjang masa pada tahun 1980,[10] tetapi jelasnya telah ditembusi pada suku pertama tahun 2008. Dari segi harga minyak mentah, catatan AS berpandangan bahawa kali terakhir dilihat harga seumpamanya adalah pada 1860-an. Rujuk sini [11], dan laraskan untuk inflasi. Di luar AS, sejarah inflasi dan harga minyak memang berbeza, tetapi pada hakikatnya, selepas dilaras inflasi, harga yang mencecah $120 setong adalah di luar jangkaan sejak zaman terawal sekali penghasilan minyak komersil. Di AS, penggunaan petrol jatuh 0.5% pada dua bulan terawal tahun 2008 akibat harga semakin tinggi,[12] berbanding penurunan sejumlah 0.4% pada tahun 2007.[13]
Para pengulas berpendapat kenaikan harga sepanjang tempoh ini disebabkan pelbagai faktor, termasuk laporan dari Jabatan Tenaga Amerika Syarikat dan pihak-pihak lain yang menunjukkan penurunan dalam rizab petroleum,[14] kebimbangan akan kemuncak penggunaan minyak,[15] pergolakan di Timur Tengah, dan spekulasi harga minyak.[16] Sesetengah peristiwa turut menyumbangkan kesan jangka pendek kepada harga minyak, seperti pelancaran misil Korea Utara,[17] krisis antara Israel dan Lebanon,[18] pergolakan mengenai tenaga nuklear Iran,[19] dan "seratus faktor" lagi, termasuk subsidi minyak yang diberi kepada pengguna oleh negara-negara membangun seperti China dan India.[20]
Punca
[sunting | sunting sumber]Permintaan
[sunting | sunting sumber]Permintaan minyak mentah sedunia naik pada purata 1.76% setahun dari tahun 1994 hingga 2006, dengan pertumbuhan tertinggi 3.4% pada 2003-2004. Kenaikan permintaan adalah yang tertinggi di negara membangun.[21] Permintaan minyak sedunia dijangka naik 37% dari takat 2006 menjelang 2030, menurut laporan tahunan Pentadbiran Maklumat Tenaga (EIA) yang bertapak di Amerika Syarikat. Permintaan dijangka mencapai 118 million barrels per day (18.8×10 6 m3/d) dari 86 million barrels (13.7×10 6 m3) pada tahun 2006, dipacu terutamanya oleh sektor pengangkutan.[22][23]
Nota
[sunting | sunting sumber]- ^ "Harga Minyak Mentah BP". Department of Energy. Diarkibkan daripada yang asal pada 2003-04-24. Dicapai pada 2006-10-24. Excel spreadsheet.
- ^ "Oil reaches new record above $99". BBC. November 21, 2007. Dicapai pada 2007-11-29.
- ^ Oil prices pushed to fresh high- http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7270392.stm
- ^ David Goldman (March 12, 2008). "Oil crosses record $110, despite supply rise" (dalam bahasa English). CNN Money. Dicapai pada 2008-03-12.CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link)
- ^ John Wilen (Monday March 10, 3:50 pm). "Gas Prices Near Records, Following Oil" (dalam bahasa English). Associated Press. Dicapai pada 2008-03-10. Check date values in:
|date=
(bantuan)CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link) - ^ "Oil sets fresh record above $109" (dalam bahasa English). BBC News. March 11, 2008. Dicapai pada 2008-03-11.CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link)
- ^ bloomberg.com, Oil Is Little Changed After Falling as Investors Sell Contracts
- ^ bloomberg.com, Oil Rises to Record Above $141 as Investors Buy Commodities
- ^ Kenneth Musante (June 29, 2008). "Oil breaks new ground above $143" (dalam bahasa English). BBC. Dicapai pada 2008-06-29.CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link)
- ^ "What is driving oil prices so high?". BBC. November 5, 2007.
- ^ {http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/f000000__3a.htm}[pautan mati kekal]
- ^ Frank Langfitt (March 5, 2008). "Americans Using Less Gasoline" (dalam bahasa English). NPR.CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link)
- ^ Marianne Lavelle (March 04, 2008). "Oil Demand Is Dropping, but Prices Aren't" (dalam bahasa English). U.S.News & World Report. Check date values in:
|date=
(bantuan)CS1 maint: unrecognized language (link) - ^ "Record oil price sets the scene for $200 next year". AME. July 6 2006. Dicapai pada 2007-11-29. Check date values in:
|date=
(bantuan) - ^ EnergyBulletin.net | Peak Oil News Clearinghouse
- ^ The Hike in Oil Prices: Speculation -- But Not Manipulation
- ^ Missile tension sends oil surging
- ^ Oil hits $100 barrel, BBC News
- ^ Iran nuclear fears fuel oil price, BBC News
- ^ Gross, Daniel (2008-01-05). "Gas Bubble: Oil is at $100 per barrel. Get used to it". Slate.
- ^ "International Petroleum (Oil) Consumption Data". U.S. Energy Information Administration. Dicapai pada 2007-12-20.
- ^ "World oil demand 'to rise by 37%'". BBC News. 2006-06-20.
- ^ "2007 International Energy Outlook: Petroleum and other liquid fuels". U.S. Energy Information Administration. May 2007.
Pautan luar dan sumber
[sunting | sunting sumber]- John V. Mitchell (Associate Fellow Chatham House, London): A New Era for Oil Prices; 32 Pages, August 2006 Diarkibkan 2006-08-11 di Wayback Machine
- Oil to $386.57 per Barrel! How derivatives drive oil prices up, despite ample supply in physical oil market, (9-Jun-06).
- Asia/Pacific: Scary Oil Andy Xie, MorganStanley economist for Asia, commenting on possibility that oil is financial bubble,(16-Jun-2005).
- Explanation of pricing mechanism in oil markets Diarkibkan 2006-10-28 di Wayback Machine
- The real problems with $50 oil Diarkibkan 2006-10-19 di Wayback Machine, An analysis by Henry C.K. Liu in Asia Times Online, details the economic impact of high oil prices.
- The Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas Newsletters
- Oil Prices and the Iraq War: Market Interpretations of Military Developments by U.S. Navy CCC Diarkibkan 2006-10-05 di Wayback Machine
- Top Saudi Says Kingdom Has Plenty of Oil[pautan mati kekal] "261 billion barrels in reserve..."
- Graph of light crude oil price increase[pautan mati kekal]
- Oil Industry Combined Graph Graph of oil prices in relation to other fossil fuel prices.
- U.S. DOE EIA retail gasoline prices
- U.S. DOE EIA retail gasoline and diesel prices charts
- an Economist article about oil price inflation and concerns [1] (login required)
- World Bank article which states that US$90 per barrel is the equivalent of the 1980 oil shock Diarkibkan 2005-09-05 di Wayback Machine (pdf file, page 18, 473kb)
- International Fuel Prices 2005 with diesel and gasoline prices of 172 countries
- EU Oil Bulletin Fuel prices in EU countries updated weekly, includes information on taxes and VAT.