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Status: 
| Verfasst von: | DellaVigna, Stefano |
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| | Pope, Devin |
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| Titel: | Predicting Experimental Results |
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| Verlagsort: | Chicago |
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| Verlag: | University of Chicago Press |
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| | University of Chicago, acting through its Press |
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| Jahr: | 2018 |
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| Umfang: | 47 S. |
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| Inhalt: | We analyze how academic experts and nonexperts forecast the results of 15 piece-rate and behavioral treatments in a real-effort task. The average forecast of experts closely predicts the experimental results, with a strong wisdom-of-crowds effect: the average forecast outperforms 96 percent of individual forecasts. Citations, academic rank, field, and contextual experience do not correlate with accuracy. Experts as a group do better than nonexperts, but not if accuracy is defined as rank-ordering treatments. Measures of effort, confidence, and revealed ability are predictive of forecast accuracy to some extent and allow us to identify “superforecasters” among the nonexperts. |
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| ISSN: | 0022-3808 |
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| Titel Quelle: | The Journal of political economy |
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| Jahr Quelle: | 2018 |
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| Band/Heft Quelle: | 126, 6, S. 2410-2456 |
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| DOI: | doi:10.1086/699976 |
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| URL: | http://www.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/cgi-bin/edok?dok=https%3A%2F%2Ffanyv88.com%3A443%2Fhttps%2Fwww.jstor.org%2Fstable%2F26550547 |
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| | http://www.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/cgi-bin/edok?dok=https%3A%2F%2Ffanyv88.com%3A443%2Fhttps%2Fwww.journals.uchicago.edu%2Fdoi%2Fabs%2F10.1086%2F699976 |
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| | http://www.ub.uni-heidelberg.de/cgi-bin/edok?dok=https%3A%2F%2Ffanyv88.com%3A443%2Fhttps%2Fwww.proquest.com%2Fdocview%2F2140896107%2Fabstract%2F |
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| | DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/699976 |
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| Sprache: | English |
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| Sach-SW: | Accuracy |
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| | Behavior modification |
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| | Citations |
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| | Crowds |
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| | Economic theory |
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| | Experts |
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| | Forecasting |
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| | Political economy |
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| | Wisdom |
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| Verknüpfungen: | → Sammelwerk |
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