SpaceX Mars colonization program: Difference between revisions
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[[File:Elon_Musk_at_MSC_2006.jpg|alt=Musk standing at a wooden podium talking at the 2006 Mars Society Conference|thumb|Elon Musk at the 2006 [[Mars Society]] conference. Before founding SpaceX in 2001, Musk had expressed interest in Mars missions and briefly joined the Mars Society's board of directors.]] |
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'''SpaceX Mars colonization program''' (colloquially also referred to as '''Occupy Mars''')<ref name="CNN23"/> is a planned objective of the company [[SpaceX]] and particularly of its founder [[Elon Musk]] to [[colonization of Mars|colonize Mars]]. The main element of this ambition is the plan to establish a self-sustained large scale settlement and colony on Mars, claiming [[self-determination]] under [[direct democracy]]. The main motivation behind this is the belief that the colonization of Mars allows humanity to become multiplanetary and therefore secures the [[Space and survival|long-term survival]] of the human species in case of Earth being rid of human life.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Sheetz |first=Michael |date=2021-04-23 |title=Elon Musk wants SpaceX to reach Mars so humanity is not a 'single-planet species' |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/elon-musk-aiming-for-mars-so-humanity-is-not-a-single-planet-species.html |access-date=2024-01-12 |website=CNBC |language=en |archive-date=October 2, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211002130927/https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/23/elon-musk-aiming-for-mars-so-humanity-is-not-a-single-planet-species.html |url-status=live }}</ref> |
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[[Elon Musk]], who founded SpaceX, first presented his goal of enabling Mars colonization in 2001 as a member of the [[Mars Society]]'s board of directors. In the 2000s and early 2010s, SpaceX made many vehicle concepts for delivering payloads and crews to Mars, including [[space tug]]s, [[heavy-lift launch vehicle]]s, and [[SpaceX Red Dragon|''Red Dragon'' capsules]]. The company's current Mars plan was first formally proposed at the 2016 [[International Astronautical Congress]] alongside a fully-reusable launch vehicle, the [[Interplanetary Transport System]]. Since then, the launch vehicle proposal was altered and renamed to "Starship", and has been in development since, reaching orbit for the first time on March 14, 2024 on its [[SpaceX Starship integrated flight test 3|third test flight]]. The company has given many estimates of dates of the first human landing on Mars. |
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Colonization is to be achieved via the development and use of reusable and [[Mass production|mass-produced]] [[super heavy-lift launch vehicle|super heavy-lift launch vehicles]] called [[SpaceX Starship|Starship]]. Starship has been referred to as the "holy grail of rocketry" for [[Space colonization|extraplanetary colonization]].<ref name=":2">{{Cite web |last=Sheetz |first=Michael |date=November 5, 2019 |title=Elon Musk: SpaceX is chasing the 'holy grail' of completely reusing a rocket |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/05/elon-musk-completely-reusing-rockets-is-spacexs-holy-grail.html |access-date=July 23, 2024 |website=CNBC}}</ref> |
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SpaceX's early missions to Mars will involve small fleets of [[SpaceX Starship (spacecraft)|Starship spacecraft]], funded by [[public–private partnership]]s. The company hopes that once infrastructure is established on Mars and the launch cost is reduced further, colonization can begin. The Mars program has been criticized by some as far-fetched, partially because of uncertainties regarding its financing<ref name="NYT-20160927" /> and because it primarily addresses transportation to Mars and not the steps that follow. [[George Dvorsky]] writing for ''[[Gizmodo Media Group|Gizmodo]]'' characterized Musk's timeline for Martian colonization as "stupendously unreasonable".<ref name=":0">{{Cite web |date=2022-06-03 |title=Elon Musk's Plan to Send a Million Colonists to Mars by 2050 Is Pure Delusion |url=https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-mars-colony-delusion-1848839584 |access-date=2023-12-26 |website=Gizmodo |language=en |archive-date=December 23, 2023 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20231223223400/https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-mars-colony-delusion-1848839584 |url-status=live }}</ref> For reference, Musk's timeline for the colonization of Mars involves a crewed mission as early as 2029 and sustainability by 2050.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Torchinsky |first=Rina |date=17 March 2022 |title=Elon Musk hints at a crewed mission to Mars in 2029 |url=https://www.npr.org/2022/03/17/1087167893/elon-musk-mars-2029 |access-date=25 January 2024 |website=NPR |archive-date=June 8, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220608022151/https://www.npr.org/2022/03/17/1087167893/elon-musk-mars-2029 |url-status=live }}</ref> |
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These plans for [[colonization]] have garnered both praise and criticism, being supported as a result of public excitement for further human involvement beyond Earth and a desire to prefer human longevity, and being questioned for its existential perspective, execution, livability and legality.<ref name=":2" /> |
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Some experts, like [[Robert Zubrin]], support the concept due to the prevalence of water ice in the form of [[permafrost]] on Mars, as well as other [[In situ resource utilization|resources]] like [[carbon dioxide]] and [[nitrogen]];<ref>{{Cite web |last=Zubrin |first=Robert |date=January 2024 |title=The Case for Colonizing Mars, by Robert Zubrin |url=https://nss.org/the-case-for-colonizing-mars-by-robert-zubrin/ |access-date=25 January 2024 |website=NSS |archive-date=January 26, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240126010318/https://nss.org/the-case-for-colonizing-mars-by-robert-zubrin/ |url-status=live }}</ref> some are opposed to the concept, believing the planet's lack of both breathable air and protective [[Magnetosphere of Mars|magnetosphere]] to be unacceptable problems.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Wattles |first=Jackie |date=2020-09-08 |title=Colonizing Mars could be dangerous and ridiculously expensive. Elon Musk wants to do it anyway {{!}} CNN Business |url=https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/08/tech/spacex-mars-profit-scn/index.html |access-date=2024-02-14 |website=CNN |language=en |archive-date=January 26, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240126010318/https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/08/tech/spacex-mars-profit-scn/index.html |url-status=live }}</ref> A common sentiment among those opposed to Mars colonization is that humans should focus on solving problems on Earth before moving on to [[Space colonization|extraplanetary colonization]].<ref>{{Cite web |last=Dorminey |first=Bruce |title=Why We Should Save Earth Before Colonizing Mars |url=https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucedorminey/2018/06/15/why-we-should-save-earth-before-colonizing-mars/ |access-date=2024-02-14 |website=Forbes |language=en |archive-date=February 14, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240214153639/https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucedorminey/2018/06/15/why-we-should-save-earth-before-colonizing-mars/ |url-status=live }}</ref> |
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== |
==History== |
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Elon Musk, founder of SpaceX, has engaged in [[space advocacy]] relating to the colonization of Mars since at least 2001 at the [[Mars Society]].<ref name=":133">{{Cite book |last=Zubrin |first=Robert |author-link=Robert Zubrin |title=The Case for Space: How the Revolution in Spaceflight Opens Up a Future of Limitless Possibility |date=14 May 2019 |publisher=[[Prometheus Books]] |isbn=978-1-63388-534-9 |location=Amherst, New York |oclc=1053572666}}</ref>{{Rp|pages=30–31}} |
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As early as 2007, Elon Musk publicly stated a personal goal of eventually enabling human exploration and settlement of Mars.<ref name="wired200705222">{{cite news |last=Hoffman |first=Carl |date=2007-05-22 |title=Elon Musk Is Betting His Fortune on a Mission Beyond Earth's Orbit |url=https://www.wired.com/science/space/magazine/15-06/ff_space_musk?currentPage=all |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121114052527/http://www.wired.com/science/space/magazine/15-06/ff_space_musk?currentPage=all |archive-date=November 14, 2012 |access-date=2014-03-14 |newspaper=Wired Magazine}}</ref> |
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=== Growth of private spaceflight === |
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{{Main|History of SpaceX|Private spaceflight}} |
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[[File:Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster (40143096241).jpg|thumb|[[Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster]] in space with [[Earth]] as the background, launched by the [[Falcon Heavy test flight]]]] |
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Subsequently, SpaceX has stated its goal is to [[Colonization of Mars|colonize Mars]] to ensure the [[Space and survival|long-term survival of the human species]],<ref name="NYT-20160927">{{cite web |last=Chang |first=Kenneth |date=27 September 2016 |title=Elon Musk's Plan: Get Humans to Mars, and Beyond |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/28/science/elon-musk-spacex-mars-exploration.html |url-access=limited |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160929095051/http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/28/science/elon-musk-spacex-mars-exploration.html |archive-date=29 September 2016 |access-date=27 September 2016 |work=[[The New York Times]]}}</ref> proposing since the 2000s and early 2010s different concepts for reaching Mars, including [[space tug]]s. |
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Before founding SpaceX, Musk joined the [[Mars Society]]'s board of directors for a short time. He was offered a plenary talk at their convention where he announced ''Mars Oasis'', a project to land a miniature experimental [[greenhouse]] and grow plants on Mars, to revive public interest in space exploration.<ref name="spectrum">{{cite web|title=Risky Business|author=Elon Musk|date=30 May 2009|access-date=1 March 2017|publisher=IEEE Spectrum |url=https://spectrum.ieee.org/aerospace/space-flight/risky-business|archive-date=23 February 2017|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170223012225/http://spectrum.ieee.org/aerospace/space-flight/risky-business|url-status=live}}</ref> Musk initially attempted to acquire a [[Dnepr (rocket)|Dnepr]] ICBM for the project through Russian contacts from [[Jim Cantrell]].<ref>{{cite web|title=Millionaires and billionaires: the secret to sending humans to Mars?|author=Keith Cowing|date=30 August 2001|access-date=1 March 2022|publisher=SPACEREF|url=http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=383|archive-date=19 June 2022|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220619022231/http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=383|url-status=live}}</ref> Russian officials were unreceptive to Musk's approach and on the flight back from Moscow, Musk worked on a spreadsheet and concluded that they could build their own rockets.<ref>{{cite magazine |last1=Ball |first1=Molly |last2=Kluger |first2=Jeffrey |last3=de la Garza |first3=Alejandro |url=https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2021-elon-musk/ |title=Elon Musk: Person of the Year 2021 |magazine=[[Time (magazine)|Time]] |date=13 December 2021 |access-date=4 November 2022 |archive-date=December 13, 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211213152608/https://time.com/person-of-the-year-2021-elon-musk/ |url-status=live }}</ref> Over time, Musk's goal evolved from a small publicity mission to generate interest in going to Mars, to a full-scale effort to create an architecture that would enable a self-sustaining human settlement on Mars.<ref>{{cite web |last=Bierend |first=Doug |url=https://www.vice.com/en/article/jp5g8k/spacex-is-because-elon-musk-wanted-to-grow-plants-on-mars |title=SpaceX Was Born Because Elon Musk Wanted to Grow Plants on Mars |work=[[Vice (magazine)|Vice]] |date=17 July 2014 |access-date=4 November 2022 |archive-date=November 16, 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20201116161629/https://www.vice.com/en/article/jp5g8k/spacex-is-because-elon-musk-wanted-to-grow-plants-on-mars |url-status=live }}</ref> This led to the formation of SpaceX.<ref name=":133">{{Cite book |last=Zubrin |first=Robert |title=The Case for Space: How the Revolution in Spaceflight Opens Up a Future of Limitless Possibility |date=14 May 2019 |publisher=[[Prometheus Books]] |isbn=978-1-63388-534-9 |location=Amherst, New York |oclc=1053572666 |author-link=Robert Zubrin}}</ref>{{Rp|pages=30–31}} |
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=== ''Red Dragon'' === |
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{{Expand section|date=July 2022}} |
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[[File:SpaceX Dragon Capsule on Mars (18053607180).jpg|left|thumb|upright=1.2|Artist's conception of two ''Red Dragon'' capsules on Mars, next to an outpost]] |
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[[SpaceX Red Dragon|Red Dragon]] was a 2011–2017 concept mission which would have used a modified [[SpaceX Dragon 2|Dragon 2 spacecraft]] as a low-cost Mars lander. If flown, it would have been launched on a [[Falcon Heavy]], and land solely via the use of its [[SuperDraco]] [[retro-propulsion thruster]]s,<ref name="March 20142">{{cite news |last=David |first=Leonard |date=7 March 2014 |title=Project 'Red Dragon': Mars Sample-Return Mission Could Launch in 2022 with SpaceX Capsule |url=http://www.space.com/24984-spacex-mars-mission-red-dragon.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210302085401/https://www.space.com/24984-spacex-mars-mission-red-dragon.html |archive-date=2 March 2021 |access-date=8 March 2014 |work=Space.com}}</ref> as [[parachute]]s would have required significant vehicle modifications.<ref name="8m">{{citation |title=Feasibility of a Dragon-derived Mars lander for scientific and human-precursor investigations |date=October 31, 2011 |url=http://digitalvideo.8m.net/SpaceX/RedDragon/karcz-red_dragon-nac-2011-10-29-1.pdf |access-date=14 May 2012 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120616154043/http://digitalvideo.8m.net/SpaceX/RedDragon/karcz-red_dragon-nac-2011-10-29-1.pdf |archive-date=2012-06-16 |url-status=live |contribution=Red Dragon |publisher=8m.net}}</ref> |
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=== Reusable launch system === |
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[[File:Falcon_Heavy_Side_Boosters_landing_on_LZ1_and_LZ2_-_2018_(25254688767).jpg|left|thumb|Two Falcon Heavy boosters landing at Cape Canaveral, Florida in the Falcon Heavy test flight]]{{Excerpt|SpaceX reusable launch system development program|files=0|templates=-Infobox space program, Private spaceflight}} |
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In 2011, SpaceX planned on proposing Red Dragon for the Discovery Mission #13, which would launch in 2022,<ref>[http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/06/spacex-dragon-lander-could-land-on-mars.html Spacex Dragon lander could land on Mars with a mission under the NASA Discovery Program cost cap.] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161110034709/http://www.nextbigfuture.com/2014/06/spacex-dragon-lander-could-land-on-mars.html|date=2016-11-10}} 20 June 2014.</ref><ref name="sdc20110731">{{cite news |last=Wall |first=Mike |date=July 31, 2011 |title='Red Dragon' Mission Mulled as Cheap Search for Mars Life |url=http://www.space.com/12489-nasa-mars-life-private-spaceship-red-dragon.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20111201051520/http://www.space.com/12489-nasa-mars-life-private-spaceship-red-dragon.html |archive-date=1 December 2011 |access-date=1 May 2012 |newspaper=SPACE.com}}</ref><ref name="NAC 2011">{{cite web |date=1 November 2011 |title=NASA ADVISORY COUNCIL (NAC) - Science Committee Report |url=https://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2012/01/23/NAC_Science_Meeting_ReportOctober_31-November_1_2011-finalTAGGED.pdf |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130120203325/http://science.nasa.gov/media/medialibrary/2012/01/23/NAC_Science_Meeting_ReportOctober_31-November_1_2011-finalTAGGED.pdf |archive-date=20 January 2013 |access-date=1 May 2012 |work=Ames Research Center, NASA}}</ref> but it was not submitted. It was then proposed in 2014 as a low-cost way for NASA to achieve a [[Mars sample return]] by 2021. In the concept, the ''Red Dragon'' capsule would be equipped with the system needed to return samples gathered on Mars. NASA did not fund this concept. |
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== Tenets == |
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{{Further|Space and survival|Life on Mars|Space launch market competition}} |
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As early as 2007, Elon Musk stated a personal goal of eventually enabling human exploration and settlement of Mars,<ref name="wired200705222">{{cite news |last=Hoffman |first=Carl |date=2007-05-22 |title=Elon Musk Is Betting His Fortune on a Mission Beyond Earth's Orbit |newspaper=Wired Magazine |url=https://www.wired.com/science/space/magazine/15-06/ff_space_musk?currentPage=all |url-status=live |access-date=2014-03-14 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20121114052527/http://www.wired.com/science/space/magazine/15-06/ff_space_musk?currentPage=all |archive-date=November 14, 2012}}</ref> although his personal public interest in Mars goes back at least to 2001 at the [[Mars Society]].<ref name=":133"/>{{Rp|pages=30–31}} SpaceX has stated its goal is to [[Colonization of Mars|colonize Mars]] to ensure the [[Space and survival|long-term survival of the human species]].<ref name="NYT-20160927">{{cite web |last=Chang |first=Kenneth |date=27 September 2016 |title=Elon Musk's Plan: Get Humans to Mars, and Beyond |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/28/science/elon-musk-spacex-mars-exploration.html |url-access=limited |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160929095051/http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/28/science/elon-musk-spacex-mars-exploration.html |archive-date=29 September 2016 |access-date=27 September 2016 |work=[[The New York Times]]}}</ref> |
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In 2016, SpaceX planned on launching two Red Dragon vehicles<ref name="IBT-2017-05-11">{{cite news |author=Agamoni Ghosh |date=11 May 2017 |title=Nasa says SpaceX may send two Red Dragon spacecraft to Mars in 2020 in case one fails |url=http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/nasa-says-spacex-may-send-two-red-dragon-spacecraft-mars-2020-case-one-fails-1621053 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20170518160945/http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/nasa-says-spacex-may-send-two-red-dragon-spacecraft-mars-2020-case-one-fails-1621053 |archive-date=18 May 2017 |access-date=25 May 2017 |work=[[International Business Times]]}}</ref> in 2018,<ref name="wapo20160613">{{cite news |last=Davenport |first=Christian |date=2016-06-13 |title=Elon Musk provides new details on his 'mind blowing' mission to Mars |url=https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/Elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/ |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160610202809/https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2016/06/10/elon-musk-provides-new-details-on-his-mind-blowing-mission-to-mars/ |archive-date=2016-06-10 |access-date=2016-06-14 |newspaper=[[Washington Post]]}}</ref><ref name="NalGeo 2016">{{cite news |last=Drake |first=Nadia |author-link=Nadia Drake |date=April 27, 2016 |title=SpaceX Plans to Send Spacecraft to Mars in 2018 |url=http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/04/160427-spacex-mars-red-dragon-china-mission/ |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20180919211253/https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/04/160427-spacex-mars-red-dragon-china-mission/ |archive-date=2018-09-19 |access-date=2016-04-28 |work=National Geographic News}}</ref> with NASA providing technical support instead of funding.<ref name="Newmann2016">{{cite web |last1=Newmann |first1=Dava |title=Exploring Together |url=http://blogs.nasa.gov/newman/2016/04/27/exploring-together/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160501034413/http://blogs.nasa.gov/newman/2016/04/27/exploring-together/ |archive-date=1 May 2016 |access-date=27 April 2016 |website=NASA Official Blog|date=April 27, 2016 }}</ref> However, in 2017, Red Dragon was cancelled, in favor of the much larger [[SpaceX Starship (spacecraft)|Starship spacecraft]].<ref name="trati20170719">{{Cite web |last=Ralph |first=Eric |date=2017-07-19 |title=SpaceX skipping Red Dragon for "vastly bigger ships" on Mars, Musk confirms |url=https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-skipping-red-dragon-vastly-bigger-ships-mars-confirms-musk/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210526153614/https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-skipping-red-dragon-vastly-bigger-ships-mars-confirms-musk/ |archive-date=2021-05-26 |access-date=2020-04-15 |website=TESLARATI |language=en-US}}</ref> |
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Starship's reusability is expected to reduce launch costs, expanding space access to more payloads and entities.<ref name="StarshipCost2">{{Cite journal |last=Mann |first=Adam |date=20 May 2020 |title=SpaceX now dominates rocket flight, bringing big benefits—and risks—to NASA |url=https://www.science.org/content/article/spacex-now-dominates-rocket-flight-bringing-big-benefits-and-risks-nasa |url-status=live |journal=[[Science (journal)|Science]] |language=en |doi=10.1126/science.abc9093 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211107024440/https://www.science.org/content/article/spacex-now-dominates-rocket-flight-bringing-big-benefits-and-risks-nasa |archive-date=7 November 2021 |access-date=28 November 2021 |doi-access=|s2cid=219490398 }}</ref> According to [[Robert Zubrin]], [[Aerospace engineering|aerospace engineer]] and advocate for [[human exploration of Mars]], Starship's planned lower launch cost could make [[space-based economy]], [[Space colonization|colonization]], and [[Asteroid mining|mining]] practical.<ref name=":133"/>{{Rp|pages=25, 26}} According to Robert Zubrin, lower cost to space may potentially make [[space research]] profitable, allowing major advancements in [[medicine]], [[computer]]s, [[Materials science|material science]], and more.<ref name=":133" />{{Rp|pages=47,48}} Musk has stated that a Starship orbital launch could eventually cost $2 million, starting at $10 million within 2-3 years and dropping with time.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Duffy |first=Kate |title=Elon Musk says he's 'highly confident' that SpaceX's Starship rocket launches will cost less than $10 million within 2-3 years |url=https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-starship-rocket-update-flight-cost-million-2022-2 |access-date=2024-01-12 |website=Business Insider |language=en-US |archive-date=January 19, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240119200111/https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-starship-rocket-update-flight-cost-million-2022-2 |url-status=live }}</ref> [[Pierre Lionnet]], director of research at [[Eurospace]], claimed otherwise, citing the rocket's multi-billion-dollar development cost and its current lack of external demand.<ref name=":92">{{cite web |last=Bender |first=Maddie |date=16 September 2021 |title=SpaceX's Starship Could Rocket-Boost Research in Space |url=https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/spacexs-starship-could-rocket-boost-research-in-space/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211026205252/https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/spacexs-starship-could-rocket-boost-research-in-space/ |archive-date=26 October 2021 |access-date=22 November 2021 |work=[[Scientific American]] |language=en}}</ref> |
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== |
=== Starship === |
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[[File:Interplanetary Transport System (29343823914).jpg|thumb|SpaceX rendering of the [[Interplanetary Transport System]] approaching Mars]] |
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{{Main|SpaceX Starship}}<!-- Should be a short summary --> |
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The company's current plan was first formally proposed at the 2016 [[International Astronautical Congress]] alongside a fully-reusable launch vehicle, the [[Interplanetary Transport System]]. Since then, the launch vehicle was renamed to "Starship", and has been in development since. |
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[[File:Starship full stack.jpg|thumb|Starship prototype assembled and stacked at [[Boca Chica (Texas)|Boca Chica]]|340x340px]] |
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Starship is designed to be a fully [[Reusable launch vehicle|reusable]] and orbital rocket, aiming to drastically reduce launch costs and maintenance between flights.<ref name=":242">{{Cite conference |last1=Inman |first1=Jennifer Ann |last2=Horvath |first2=Thomas J. |last3=Scott |first3=Carey Fulton |date=24 August 2021 |title=SCIFLI Starship Reentry Observation (SSRO) ACO (SpaceX Starship) |url=https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20210020835 |conference=Game Changing Development Annual Program Review 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211011134426/https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20210020835 |archive-date=11 October 2021 |access-date=12 October 2021 |url-status=live |work=[[NASA]]}}</ref>{{Rp|page=2}} The rocket consists of a [[SpaceX Super Heavy|Super Heavy first stage booster]] and a [[SpaceX Starship (spacecraft)|Starship second stage spacecraft]],<ref name=":15">{{cite web |last=Amos |first=Jonathan |date=6 August 2021 |title=Biggest ever rocket is assembled briefly in Texas |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58120874 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210811063944/https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58120874 |archive-date=11 August 2021 |access-date=30 May 2022 |work=[[BBC News]]}}</ref> powered by [[SpaceX Raptor|Raptor and Raptor Vacuum engines]].<ref>{{cite web |last=Ryan |first=Jackson |date=21 October 2021 |title=SpaceX Starship Raptor vacuum engine fired for the first time |url=https://www.cnet.com/science/spacex-starship-raptor-vacuum-engine-fired-for-the-first-time/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220609051830/https://www.cnet.com/science/spacex-starship-raptor-vacuum-engine-fired-for-the-first-time/ |archive-date=9 June 2022 |access-date=9 June 2022 |website=[[CNET]] }}</ref> Both the rocket stages' body are made from [[stainless steel]].<ref name=":553">{{Cite web |last=Chang |first=Kenneth |date=Sep 28, 2019 |title=Elon Musk Sets Out SpaceX Starship's Ambitious Launch Timeline |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/28/science/elon-musk-spacex-starship.html |access-date=8 July 2022 |website=[[The New York Times]] |archive-date=April 7, 2020 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200407093459/https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/28/science/elon-musk-spacex-starship.html |url-status=live }}</ref> |
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The development program reached multiple milestones in 2024 such as on its [[SpaceX Starship integrated flight test 3|third test flight]], it reached its desired trajectory for the first time and on its [[SpaceX Starship integrated flight test 4|fourth flight test]], both stages of the vehicle achieved controlled splashdown after launch for the first time. |
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Methane was chosen for the Raptor engines because it is relatively cheap, produces low amount of [[soot]] as compared to other hydrocarbons,<ref name=":19">{{cite web |last=O'Callaghan |first=Jonathan |date=31 July 2019 |title=The wild physics of Elon Musk's methane-guzzling super-rocket |url=https://www.wired.co.uk/article/spacex-raptor-engine-starship |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210222232043/https://www.wired.co.uk/article/spacex-raptor-engine-starship |archive-date=22 February 2021 |access-date=9 December 2021 |magazine=[[Wired UK]]}}</ref> and can be [[In situ resource utilization|created on Mars]] from [[Atmosphere of Mars#Carbon dioxide|carbon dioxide from the atmosphere]] and hydrogen via the [[Sabatier reaction]].<ref name=":52">{{cite web |last=Sommerlad |first=Joe |date=28 May 2021 |title=Elon Musk reveals Starship progress ahead of first orbital flight of Mars-bound craft |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/space/elon-musk-starship-sn16-mars-b1855721.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210823165544/https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/space/elon-musk-starship-sn16-mars-b1855721.html |archive-date=23 August 2021 |access-date=4 December 2021 |work=[[The Independent]] }}</ref> The engine family uses a new [[alloy]] for the main combustion chamber, allowing it to contain {{cvt|300|bar|psi}} of pressure, the highest of all current engines.<ref name=":19" /> In the future, it may be mass-produced<ref name=":19" /> and cost about $230,000 per engine or $100 per [[kilonewton]].<ref name=":25322">{{Cite interview |last=Sesnic |first=Trevor |title=Starbase Tour and Interview with Elon Musk |url=https://everydayastronaut.com/starbase-tour-and-interview-with-elon-musk/ |access-date=12 October 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210812114027/https://everydayastronaut.com/starbase-tour-and-interview-with-elon-musk/ |archive-date=12 August 2021 |url-status=live |work=[[The Everyday Astronaut]] |date=11 August 2021 }}</ref> |
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On 7 September 2024, SpaceX announced that it would launch the first uncrewed Starship missions to Mars in two years, aligning with the next [[Mars launch window|Earth-Mars transfer window]]. Elon Musk shared on the social media platform X that these missions would focus on testing the reliability of landing Starships intact on Mars. SpaceX plans to launch five uncrewed Starships to Mars during that transfer window.<ref name="reuters-20240922">{{cite web |url=https://www.reuters.com/science/musk-says-spacex-plans-launch-about-five-uncrewed-starships-mars-two-years-2024-09-22/ |title=SpaceX plans to send five uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years, Musk says |work=[[Reuters]] |date=22 September 2024 |access-date=23 September 2024}}</ref> If successful, the company plans to begin crewed flights to Mars in about four years.<ref>{{cite news|title=Musk says SpaceX to launch first uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years |date=7 September 2024 |url=https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/musk-says-spacex-launch-first-uncrewed-starships-mars-two-years-2024-09-07/ |website=Reuters |access-date=8 September 2024}}</ref> |
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[[SpaceX Starship (spacecraft)|Starship]] is the launch vehicle's [[second stage]] and will serve as a long-duration [[spacecraft]] on some missions.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Petrova |first=Magdalena |date=13 March 2022 |title=Why Starship is the holy grail for SpaceX |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/13/why-starship-is-the-holy-grail-for-spacex.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220528232814/https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/13/why-starship-is-the-holy-grail-for-spacex.html |archive-date=28 May 2022 |access-date=9 June 2022 |website=[[CNBC]] }}</ref> The spacecraft is {{cvt|50|m}} tall<ref name=":7">{{cite web |last=Dvorsky |first=George |date=6 August 2021 |title=SpaceX Starship Stacking Produces the Tallest Rocket Ever Built |url=https://gizmodo.com/spacex-starship-stacking-produces-the-tallest-rocket-ev-1847438954 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220111084331/https://gizmodo.com/spacex-starship-stacking-produces-the-tallest-rocket-ev-1847438954 |archive-date=11 January 2022 |access-date=11 January 2022 |website=[[Gizmodo]] }}</ref> and has a dry mass of approximately {{cvt|100|t|lb}}.<ref name=":25322"/> Starship's payload volume is planned to be about {{cvt|1000|m3|}},<ref name=":17">{{cite web |last=O'Callaghan |first=Jonathan |date=7 December 2021 |title=How SpaceX's massive Starship rocket might unlock the solar system—and beyond |url=https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/12/07/1041420/spacex-starship-rocket-solar-system-exploration/ |url-access=limited |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211208133829/https://www.technologyreview.com/2021/12/07/1041420/spacex-starship-rocket-solar-system-exploration/ |archive-date=8 December 2021 |access-date=30 December 2021 |work=[[MIT Technology Review]] }}</ref> larger than the [[International Space Station]]'s pressurized volume by {{cvt|80|m3|}},<ref>{{Cite web |last=Garcia |first=Mark |date=5 November 2021 |title=International Space Station Facts and Figures |url=http://www.nasa.gov/feature/facts-and-figures |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220606234242/https://www.nasa.gov/feature/facts-and-figures/ |archive-date=6 June 2022 |access-date=10 June 2022 |website=[[NASA]]}}</ref> and could be larger with an extended {{cvt|22|m}}-tall payload bay.<ref name=":45">{{Cite web |date=March 2020 |title=Starship Users Guide |url=https://www.spacex.com/media/starship_users_guide_v1.pdf |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210806173133/https://www.spacex.com/media/starship_users_guide_v1.pdf |archive-date=6 August 2021 |access-date=6 October 2021 |website=[[SpaceX]]}}</ref>{{Rp|page=2}} By refueling the Starship spacecraft in orbit using tanker spacecraft, Starship may be able to transport larger payloads and more astronauts to other Earth orbits, to the Moon ([[Starship HLS]]), and Mars.<ref name=":45" />{{Rp|page=5}} |
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==Composition== |
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== Program manifest == |
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===Goals=== |
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SpaceX plans to build a crewed base on Mars for an extended surface presence, which it hopes will grow into a self-sufficient [[Colonization of Mars|colony]].<ref name="Eric Ralf">[https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-first-mars-bound-bfr-spaceships-martian-habitats/ "SpaceX wants to use the first Mars-bound BFR spaceships as Martian habitats"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181109183003/https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-first-mars-bound-bfr-spaceships-martian-habitats/|date=November 9, 2018}}. Eric Ralph, ''TeslaRati''. August 27, 2018.</ref><ref name="Rayne 2018">[https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/mars-2024-elon-musk "We're going to Mars by 2024 if Elon Musk has anything to say about it"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190203050403/https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/mars-2024-elon-musk|date=February 3, 2019}}. Elizabeth Rayne, ''SyFy Wire''. August 15, 2018.</ref> A successful colonization, meaning an established human presence on Mars growing over many decades, would ultimately involve many more economic actors than SpaceX.<ref name="ars20160928">{{cite news |last=Berger |first=Eric |date=2016-09-28 |title=Musk's Mars moment: Audacity, madness, brilliance—or maybe all three |work=[[Ars Technica]] |url=https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/09/musks-mars-moment-audacity-madness-brilliance-or-maybe-all-three/ |url-status=live |access-date=2016-10-13 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161013144816/http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/09/musks-mars-moment-audacity-madness-brilliance-or-maybe-all-three/ |archive-date=October 13, 2016}}</ref><ref name="sn20161010">{{cite news |last=Foust |first=Jeff |date=2016-10-10 |title=Can Elon Musk get to Mars? |work=[[SpaceNews]] |url=http://www.spacenewsmag.com/feature/can-elon-musk-get-to-mars/ |url-status=live |access-date=2016-10-12 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161013071335/http://www.spacenewsmag.com/feature/can-elon-musk-get-to-mars/ |archive-date=October 13, 2016}}</ref><ref name="gw-201609272">{{cite news |last=Boyle |first=Alan |date=September 27, 2016 |title=SpaceX's Elon Musk makes the big pitch for his decades-long plan to colonize Mars |work=[[GeekWire]] |url=http://www.geekwire.com/2016/spacex-elon-musk-colonize-mars/ |url-status=live |access-date=October 3, 2016 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161003205159/http://www.geekwire.com/2016/spacex-elon-musk-colonize-mars/ |archive-date=October 3, 2016}}</ref> Musk has made many tentative predictions about the date of Starship's first Mars landing,<ref name=":553"/> including 2029.<ref>{{cite web |last=Torchinsky |first=Rina |date=17 March 2022 |title=Elon Musk hints at a crewed mission to Mars in 2029 |url=https://www.npr.org/2022/03/17/1087167893/elon-musk-mars-2029 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220608022151/https://www.npr.org/2022/03/17/1087167893/elon-musk-mars-2029 |archive-date=8 June 2022 |access-date=16 June 2022 |work=[[NPR]] |language=en}}</ref> |
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{{Further|Space and survival|Life on Mars}} |
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As early as 2007, Elon Musk stated a personal goal of eventually enabling human exploration and settlement of Mars.<ref name="wired200705222"/> |
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SpaceX has stated its goal is to [[Colonization of Mars|colonize Mars]] to ensure the [[Space and survival|long-term survival of the human species]] by becoming multiplanetary.<ref name="NYT-20160927" /> |
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=== Exploration === |
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[[File:Interplanetary Transport System (29343825184).jpg|alt=Four astronauts looking at Mars|thumb|A scene of astronauts on Mars in the 2016 IAC presentation]]Musk plans for the first crewed Mars missions to have approximately 12 people, with goals to "build out and troubleshoot the propellant plant and Mars Base Alpha power system" and establish a "rudimentary base." The company plans to [[Sabatier reaction|process]] resources on Mars into fuel for return journeys,<ref name=":5">{{cite web |last=Sommerlad |first=Joe |date=28 May 2021 |title=Elon Musk reveals Starship progress ahead of first orbital flight of Mars-bound craft |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/space/elon-musk-starship-sn16-mars-b1855721.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210823165544/https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/space/elon-musk-starship-sn16-mars-b1855721.html |archive-date=23 August 2021 |access-date=4 December 2021 |work=[[The Independent]] |language=en}}</ref> and use similar technologies on Earth to create [[Carbon-neutral fuel|carbon-neutral propellant]].<ref>{{Cite news |last=Killelea |first=Eric |date=16 December 2021 |title=Musk looks to Earth's atmosphere as source of rocket fuel |url=https://www.expressnews.com/business/article/Elon-Musk-SpaceX-rocket-fuel-16707544.php |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211220173105/https://www.expressnews.com/business/article/Elon-Musk-SpaceX-rocket-fuel-16707544.php |archive-date=20 December 2021 |access-date=31 March 2022 |website=[[San Antonio Express-News]] |language=en-US}}</ref> |
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=== |
=== Launch system === |
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{{Further|Space launch market competition}} |
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[[File:Terraforming Mars transition horizontal.jpg|alt=A series of four illustrations of a planet, each successive one featuring more liquid water, vegetation, clouds, and atmospheric haze|thumb|Artist's conception of the process of terraforming Mars]] |
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[[File:Starbase.jpg|thumb|SpaceX [[super heavy-lift launch vehicle]] ''Starship'' assembly at its launch facility called ''[[SpaceX Starbase|Starbase]]'' on the [[Boca Chica (Texas)]] peninsula in the [[Rio Grande]] delta at the [[Gulf of Mexico]]]] |
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The program aims to send a million people to Mars, using a thousand Starships sent during a [[Mars launch window]].<ref>{{Cite web |last=Kooser |first=Amanda |date=16 January 2020 |title=Elon Musk breaks down the Starship numbers for a million-person SpaceX Mars colony |url=https://www.cnet.com/news/elon-musk-drops-details-for-spacexs-million-person-mars-mega-colony/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220207024444/https://www.cnet.com/news/elon-musk-drops-details-for-spacexs-million-person-mars-mega-colony/ |archive-date=7 February 2022 |access-date=7 February 2022 |publisher=[[CNET]] |language=en}}</ref> Proposed journeys would require 80 to 150 days of transit time,<ref name="gw-201609272"/> averaging approximately 115 days (for the nine [[synodic period]]s occurring between 2020 and 2037).<ref name="spacex-itspresentation201609">{{cite web |date=2016-09-27 |title=Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species |url=http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/mars_presentation.pdf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160928040332/http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/mars_presentation.pdf |archive-date=2016-09-28 |access-date=2016-09-29 |publisher=[[SpaceX]]}}</ref> This plan has been described as 'pure delusion' by [[George Dvorsky]], writing for ''[[Gizmodo]]'',<ref name=":0" /> and as a 'dangerous delusion' by Lord [[Martin Rees]], a British cosmologist/astrophysicist and the [[Astronomer Royal]] of the [[United Kingdom]].<ref name=":1">{{Cite web |title=Elon Musk's plans for life on Mars are a 'dangerous delusion', says British chief astronomer |url=https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musks-plans-for-life-on-mars-a-dangerous-delusion-12243479 |access-date=2024-01-11 |website=Sky News |language=en |archive-date=January 11, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240111235835/https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musks-plans-for-life-on-mars-a-dangerous-delusion-12243479 |url-status=live }}</ref> Serkan Saydam, a mining engineering professor from the [[University of New South Wales]] said that we will likely still lack the technology needed to create and maintain a martian colony of a million people by 2050. <ref name=":0" /> |
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SpaceX has been setting up since 2014 a facility called ''[[SpaceX Starbase|Starbase]]'' and more recently a [[factory]] called ''Starfactory'' on the previously populated and wildlife area [[Boca Chica (Texas)]] peninsula in the [[Rio Grande]] delta at the [[Gulf of Mexico]],<ref name="z597">{{cite web | last=Reilly | first=Patrick | title=Residents of Elon Musk's 'space city' say he destroyed quiet beach town | website=New York Post | date=2023-02-19 | url=https://nypost.com/2023/02/18/residents-of-musks-texas-space-city-rip-billionaire-for-destroying-quiet-beach-town/ | access-date=2024-07-15}}</ref> partly justified by SpaceX with its colonial perspective,<ref name="r459">{{cite journal | last=Korpershoek | first=Karlijn | title=Accessibility to Space Infrastructures and Outer Space: Anthropological Insights from Europe's Spaceport | journal=International Journal of the Commons | volume=17 | issue=1 | date=December 26, 2023 | issn=1875-0281 | doi=10.5334/ijc.1284 | doi-access=free | pages=481–491}}</ref> to launch and build an in development fully [[Reusable launch vehicle|reusable]] [[super heavy-lift launch vehicle]] with the name ''[[SpaceX Starship|Starship]]''. Aiming with its reusability to drastically reduce launch costs and scaled construction and swift maintenance between flights,<ref name=":242">{{Cite conference |last1=Inman |first1=Jennifer Ann |last2=Horvath |first2=Thomas J. |last3=Scott |first3=Carey Fulton |date=24 August 2021 |title=SCIFLI Starship Reentry Observation (SSRO) ACO (SpaceX Starship) |url=https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20210020835 |conference=Game Changing Development Annual Program Review 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211011134426/https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/20210020835 |archive-date=11 October 2021 |access-date=12 October 2021 |url-status=live |work=[[NASA]]}}</ref>{{Rp|page=2}} this has been the basis for SpaceX to advance its Mars ambitions and when operational will allow it to provide the necessary transportation capabilities for its colonial goals. The reusability and its resulting reduced launch costs is expected to expand space access to more payloads and entities.<ref name="StarshipCost2">{{Cite journal |last=Mann |first=Adam |date=20 May 2020 |title=SpaceX now dominates rocket flight, bringing big benefits—and risks—to NASA |url=https://www.science.org/content/article/spacex-now-dominates-rocket-flight-bringing-big-benefits-and-risks-nasa |url-status=live |journal=[[Science (journal)|Science]] |language=en |doi=10.1126/science.abc9093 |s2cid=219490398 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211107024440/https://www.science.org/content/article/spacex-now-dominates-rocket-flight-bringing-big-benefits-and-risks-nasa |archive-date=7 November 2021 |access-date=28 November 2021 |doi-access=}}</ref> |
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== ''Red Dragon'' capsule == |
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[[File:SpaceX Dragon Capsule on Mars (18053607180).jpg|left|thumb|Artist's conception of two ''Red Dragon'' capsules on Mars, next to an outpost]]{{Excerpt|SpaceX Red Dragon|files=0|templates=-Infobox space program}} |
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Musk has stated that a Starship orbital launch could eventually cost $2 million, starting at $10 million within 2–3 years and dropping with time.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Duffy |first=Kate |title=Elon Musk says he's 'highly confident' that SpaceX's Starship rocket launches will cost less than $10 million within 2-3 years |url=https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-starship-rocket-update-flight-cost-million-2022-2 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240119200111/https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-starship-rocket-update-flight-cost-million-2022-2 |archive-date=January 19, 2024 |access-date=2024-01-12 |website=Business Insider |language=en-US}}</ref> Starfactory is at the same time planned to produce at peak one Starship per day.<ref>{{Cite web |author1=Garofalo |first=Meredith |date=June 8, 2024 |title=SpaceX wants to build 1 Starship megarocket a day with new Starfactory |url=https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-one-a-day-starfactory |access-date=June 10, 2024 |website=Space.com |language=en}}</ref> |
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== Mars Colonial Transporter == |
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{{Excerpt|SpaceX Starship design process#Mars Colonial Transporter}} |
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The rocket consists of a [[SpaceX Super Heavy|Super Heavy first stage booster]] and a [[SpaceX Starship (spacecraft)|Starship second stage spacecraft]],<ref name=":15">{{cite web |last=Amos |first=Jonathan |date=6 August 2021 |title=Biggest ever rocket is assembled briefly in Texas |url=https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58120874 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210811063944/https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58120874 |archive-date=11 August 2021 |access-date=30 May 2022 |work=[[BBC News]]}}</ref> powered by [[SpaceX Raptor|Raptor and Raptor Vacuum engines]].<ref>{{cite web |last=Ryan |first=Jackson |date=21 October 2021 |title=SpaceX Starship Raptor vacuum engine fired for the first time |url=https://www.cnet.com/science/spacex-starship-raptor-vacuum-engine-fired-for-the-first-time/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220609051830/https://www.cnet.com/science/spacex-starship-raptor-vacuum-engine-fired-for-the-first-time/ |archive-date=9 June 2022 |access-date=9 June 2022 |website=[[CNET]]}}</ref> Both stages are made from [[stainless steel]].<ref name=":553">{{Cite web |last=Chang |first=Kenneth |date=Sep 28, 2019 |title=Elon Musk Sets Out SpaceX Starship's Ambitious Launch Timeline |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/28/science/elon-musk-spacex-starship.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200407093459/https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/28/science/elon-musk-spacex-starship.html |archive-date=April 7, 2020 |access-date=8 July 2022 |website=[[The New York Times]]}}</ref> |
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Methane was chosen for the Raptor engines because it is relatively inexpensive, produces a low amount of [[soot]] as compared to other hydrocarbons,<ref name=":19">{{cite web |last=O'Callaghan |first=Jonathan |date=31 July 2019 |title=The wild physics of Elon Musk's methane-guzzling super-rocket |url=https://www.wired.co.uk/article/spacex-raptor-engine-starship |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210222232043/https://www.wired.co.uk/article/spacex-raptor-engine-starship |archive-date=22 February 2021 |access-date=9 December 2021 |magazine=[[Wired UK]]}}</ref> and can be [[In situ resource utilization|created on Mars]] from [[Atmosphere of Mars#Carbon dioxide|carbon dioxide from the atmosphere]] and hydrogen via the [[Sabatier reaction]].<ref name=":52">{{cite web |last=Sommerlad |first=Joe |date=28 May 2021 |title=Elon Musk reveals Starship progress ahead of first orbital flight of Mars-bound craft |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/space/elon-musk-starship-sn16-mars-b1855721.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210823165544/https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/space/elon-musk-starship-sn16-mars-b1855721.html |archive-date=23 August 2021 |access-date=4 December 2021 |work=[[The Independent]]}}</ref> The engine family uses a new [[alloy]] for the main combustion chamber, allowing it to contain {{cvt|300|bar|psi}} of pressure, the highest of all current engines.<ref name=":19" /> In the future, it may be mass-produced<ref name=":19" /> and cost about $230,000 per engine or $100 per [[kilonewton]].<ref name=":25322">{{Cite interview |last=Sesnic |first=Trevor |title=Starbase Tour and Interview with Elon Musk |url=https://everydayastronaut.com/starbase-tour-and-interview-with-elon-musk/ |access-date=12 October 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210812114027/https://everydayastronaut.com/starbase-tour-and-interview-with-elon-musk/ |archive-date=12 August 2021 |url-status=live |work=[[The Everyday Astronaut]] |date=11 August 2021}}</ref> |
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===First missions=== |
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[[File:Interplanetary Transport System (29343825184).jpg|alt=Four astronauts looking at Mars|thumb|upright=1.2|A scene of astronauts on Mars in the 2016 IAC presentation]] |
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Musk has made statements on several occasions about aspirational dates for Starship's earliest possible Mars landing,<ref name=nyt20190928>{{cite news |last=Chang |first=Kenneth |date=Sep 28, 2019 |title=Elon Musk Sets Out SpaceX Starship's Ambitious Launch Timeline |url=https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/28/science/elon-musk-spacex-starship.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20200407093459/https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/28/science/elon-musk-spacex-starship.html |archive-date=April 7, 2020 |access-date=8 July 2022 |work=[[The New York Times]]}}</ref> including in 2022, that a crewed mission to Mars could take place no earlier than 2029.<ref>{{cite news |last=Torchinsky |first=Rina |date=17 March 2022 |title=Elon Musk hints at a crewed mission to Mars in 2029 |url=https://www.npr.org/2022/03/17/1087167893/elon-musk-mars-2029 |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220608022151/https://www.npr.org/2022/03/17/1087167893/elon-musk-mars-2029 |archive-date=8 June 2022 |access-date=16 June 2022 |work=[[NPR]] }}</ref> |
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SpaceX's early missions to Mars are to involve small fleets of [[SpaceX Starship (spacecraft)|Starship spacecraft]], funded by [[public–private partnership]]s.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-04-16 |title=SpaceX Mars Plans for 1,000 Spaceships to Deliver First Colonists Within 7 to 9 Years |url=https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/spacex-mars-plans-1000-spaceships-deliver-first-colonists-within-7-9-years-1724327 |access-date=2024-04-16 |website=International Business Times UK |language=en}}</ref> |
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SpaceX has stated on several occasions aspirational plans to build a crewed base on Mars for an extended surface presence, which it hopes will grow into a self-sufficient [[colony]].<ref name="Eric Ralf">[https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-first-mars-bound-bfr-spaceships-martian-habitats/ "SpaceX wants to use the first Mars-bound BFR spaceships as Martian habitats"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20181109183003/https://www.teslarati.com/spacex-first-mars-bound-bfr-spaceships-martian-habitats/|date=November 9, 2018}}. Eric Ralph, ''TeslaRati''. August 27, 2018.</ref><ref name="Rayne 2018">[https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/mars-2024-elon-musk "We're going to Mars by 2024 if Elon Musk has anything to say about it"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20190203050403/https://www.syfy.com/syfywire/mars-2024-elon-musk|date=February 3, 2019}}. Elizabeth Rayne, ''SyFy Wire''. August 15, 2018.</ref> |
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Before any people are transported to Mars, a number of cargo missions would be undertaken first in order to transport the requisite [[Mars colonization equipment|equipment]], [[Mars habitat|habitats]] and supplies.<ref name=tss20140321b>{{cite AV media |people=Gwynne Shotwell |date=2014-03-21 |title=Broadcast 2212: Special Edition, interview with Gwynne Shotwell |medium=audio file |url=http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2212-BWB-2014-03-21.mp3 |access-date=2014-03-22 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20140322013556/http://archived.thespaceshow.com/shows/2212-BWB-2014-03-21.mp3 |archive-date=March 22, 2014 |format=mp3 |time=29:45–30:40 |publisher=The Space Show |id=2212 |quote=''would have to throw a bunch of stuff before you start putting people there. ... It is a transportation system between Earth and Mars.'' |url-status=dead }}</ref> Equipment that would accompany the early groups would include "machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars' atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet's subsurface water ice" as well as construction materials to build transparent domes for crop growth.<ref name=dn20121213>{{cite news |url=http://news.discovery.com/space/alien-life-exoplanets/mars-colony-spacex-121126.htm |title=Huge Mars Colony Eyed by SpaceX Founder |date=2012-12-13 |access-date=2014-03-14 |publisher=Discovery News }}</ref><ref name=guardian20130717> |
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{{cite news |last=Carroll|first=Rory |title=Elon Musk's mission to Mars |url=http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/jul/17/elon-musk-mission-mars-spacex |access-date=2014-02-05 |newspaper=TheGuardian |date=2013-07-17 }}</ref> As of September 2024, SpaceX plans to launch five uncrewed Starships to Mars during the next available Earth-Mars transfer window in 2026.<ref name="reuters-20240922" /> |
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Musk plans for the first crewed Mars missions to have approximately 12 people, with goals to "build out and troubleshoot the propellant plant and Mars Base Alpha power system" and establish a "rudimentary base." The company plans to [[Sabatier reaction|process]] resources on Mars into fuel for return journeys,<ref name=":5">{{cite web |last=Sommerlad |first=Joe |date=28 May 2021 |title=Elon Musk reveals Starship progress ahead of first orbital flight of Mars-bound craft |url=https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/space/elon-musk-starship-sn16-mars-b1855721.html |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20210823165544/https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/space/elon-musk-starship-sn16-mars-b1855721.html |archive-date=23 August 2021 |access-date=4 December 2021 |work=[[The Independent]] |language=en}}</ref> and use similar technologies on Earth to create [[Carbon-neutral fuel|carbon-neutral propellant]].<ref>{{Cite news |last=Killelea |first=Eric |date=16 December 2021 |title=Musk looks to Earth's atmosphere as source of rocket fuel |url=https://www.expressnews.com/business/article/Elon-Musk-SpaceX-rocket-fuel-16707544.php |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211220173105/https://www.expressnews.com/business/article/Elon-Musk-SpaceX-rocket-fuel-16707544.php |archive-date=20 December 2021 |access-date=31 March 2022 |website=[[San Antonio Express-News]] |language=en-US}}</ref> |
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===Populating=== |
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[[File:Occupy Mars (9047414906).jpg|thumb|People at SpaceX wearing t-shirts with ''Occupy Mars'' written on them. Colonization will depend on many people settling with the harsh reality of Mars,<ref name="l879">{{cite journal | last=Klass | first=Morton | title=Recruiting new "huddled masses" and "wretched refuse": a prolegomenon to the human colonization of space | journal=Futures | publisher=Elsevier BV | volume=32 | issue=8 | year=2000 | issn=0016-3287 | doi=10.1016/s0016-3287(00)00024-0 | pages=739–748}}</ref> as pointed out by Elon Musk presenting SpaceX's colonial approach.<ref name="m580">{{cite web | last=Wall | first=Mike | title=1st Mars Colonists Should Be 'Prepared to Die,' Elon Musk Says | website=Space.com | date=2016-09-30 | url=https://www.space.com/34259-elon-musk-first-mars-colonists-prepared-die.html | access-date=2024-07-12}}</ref>]] |
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The company hopes that once infrastructure is established on Mars and launch cost is reduced, populating can begin. |
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After the first few windows of crewed Mars landings, Musk has suggested that the number of people who are sent to Mars could be ramped up rapidly. |
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A successful colonization, meaning an established human presence on Mars growing over many decades, would ultimately involve many more economic actors than SpaceX.<ref name="ars20160928">{{cite news |last=Berger |first=Eric |date=2016-09-28 |title=Musk's Mars moment: Audacity, madness, brilliance—or maybe all three |url=https://arstechnica.com/science/2016/09/musks-mars-moment-audacity-madness-brilliance-or-maybe-all-three/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161013144816/http://arstechnica.com/science/2016/09/musks-mars-moment-audacity-madness-brilliance-or-maybe-all-three/ |archive-date=October 13, 2016 |access-date=2016-10-13 |work=[[Ars Technica]]}}</ref><ref name="sn20161010">{{cite news |last=Foust |first=Jeff |date=2016-10-10 |title=Can Elon Musk get to Mars? |url=http://www.spacenewsmag.com/feature/can-elon-musk-get-to-mars/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161013071335/http://www.spacenewsmag.com/feature/can-elon-musk-get-to-mars/ |archive-date=October 13, 2016 |access-date=2016-10-12 |work=[[SpaceNews]]}}</ref><ref name="gw-201609272">{{cite news |last=Boyle |first=Alan |date=September 27, 2016 |title=SpaceX's Elon Musk makes the big pitch for his decades-long plan to colonize Mars |url=http://www.geekwire.com/2016/spacex-elon-musk-colonize-mars/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161003205159/http://www.geekwire.com/2016/spacex-elon-musk-colonize-mars/ |archive-date=October 3, 2016 |access-date=October 3, 2016 |work=[[GeekWire]]}}</ref> |
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For reference, Musk's timeline for the colonization of Mars involves a crewed mission as early as 2029 and the development of a self-sustaining colony by 2050.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Torchinsky |first=Rina |date=17 March 2022 |title=Elon Musk hints at a crewed mission to Mars in 2029 |url=https://www.npr.org/2022/03/17/1087167893/elon-musk-mars-2029 |access-date=25 January 2024 |website=NPR |archive-date=June 8, 2022 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220608022151/https://www.npr.org/2022/03/17/1087167893/elon-musk-mars-2029 |url-status=live }}</ref> |
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Musk has stated in 2024 that [[In situ resource utilization|in-situ resource utilization]] will be critical for establishing a self-sustaining colony, and that SpaceX plans to begin its efforts in advancing that field in "seven to nine years".<ref>{{Cite web |date=April 6, 2024 |title=At Starbase, @ElonMusk provided an update on the company's plans to send humanity to Mars, the best destination to begin making life multiplanetary |url=https://twitter.com/SpaceX/status/1776669097490776563 |website=SpaceX}}</ref> Current theories for in-situ resource utilization involve harvesting CO2 from the atmosphere and splitting into its raw components. This will involve using the O2 as well as CH4 for fuel production, and specifically the O2 in addition to Nitrogen (the second-most common gas in the Martian atmosphere) for breathing air within habitats.<ref>{{Cite journal |last=Starr |first=Stanley O. |date=April 25, 2024 |title=Mars in situ resource utilization: a review |url=https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0032063319301618 |access-date=April 25, 2024 |journal=Planetary and Space Science|volume=182 |doi=10.1016/j.pss.2019.104824 }}</ref> |
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The program aims to send a million people to Mars, using a thousand Starships sent during a [[Mars launch window]], which occurs approximately every 26 months.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Kooser |first=Amanda |date=16 January 2020 |title=Elon Musk breaks down the Starship numbers for a million-person SpaceX Mars colony |url=https://www.cnet.com/news/elon-musk-drops-details-for-spacexs-million-person-mars-mega-colony/ |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220207024444/https://www.cnet.com/news/elon-musk-drops-details-for-spacexs-million-person-mars-mega-colony/ |archive-date=7 February 2022 |access-date=7 February 2022 |publisher=[[CNET]] |language=en}}</ref> Proposed journeys would require 80 to 150 days of transit time,<ref name="gw-201609272" /> averaging approximately 115 days (for the nine [[synodic period]]s occurring between 2024 and 2041).<ref name="spacex-itspresentation201609">{{cite web |date=2016-09-27 |title=Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species |url=http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/mars_presentation.pdf |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160928040332/http://www.spacex.com/sites/spacex/files/mars_presentation.pdf |archive-date=2016-09-28 |access-date=2016-09-29 |publisher=[[SpaceX]]}}</ref> |
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== Reception and feasibility == |
== Reception and feasibility == |
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Mars colonization has gained increased interest, both supportive and critical, since the technical achievements of SpaceX's and Elon Musk's rise of popularity in the 2010s, and more so into the 2020s. |
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As of December 2023, SpaceX has not publicly detailed plans for the spacecraft's life-support systems, radiation protection, and [[in situ resource utilization]], which are essential for space colonization.<ref name=":22">{{Cite web |last=Grush |first=Loren |date=4 October 2019 |title=Elon Musk's future Starship updates could use more details on human health and survival |url=https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/4/20895056/elon-musk-starship-spacex-human-health-life-support-radiation |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20191008165907/https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/4/20895056/elon-musk-starship-spacex-human-health-life-support-radiation |archive-date=8 October 2019 |access-date=24 January 2022 |website=[[The Verge]] |language=en}}</ref> |
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===Support=== |
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[[File:We bring you Mars (9848295393).jpg|thumb|"We bring you Mars", a rendering of a [[Terraforming|terraformed]] [[Terraforming of Mars|Mars]] at SpaceX Headquarters]] |
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Some experts, like [[Robert Zubrin]], support the concept due to the prevalence of water ice in the form of [[permafrost]] and [[glacier]]s on Mars, as well as other [[In situ resource utilization|resources]] like [[carbon dioxide]] and [[nitrogen]].<ref>{{Cite web |last=Zubrin |first=Robert |date=January 2024 |title=The Case for Colonizing Mars, by Robert Zubrin |url=https://nss.org/the-case-for-colonizing-mars-by-robert-zubrin/ |access-date=25 January 2024 |website=NSS |archive-date=January 26, 2024 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240126010318/https://nss.org/the-case-for-colonizing-mars-by-robert-zubrin/ |url-status=live }}</ref> According to Zubrin, Starship's planned lower launch cost could make [[space research]] profitable, allowing major advancements in [[medicine]], [[computer]]s, [[Materials science|material science]],<ref name=":133" />{{Rp|pages=47,48}} making [[Asteroid mining|mining]] profitable as well and [[space-based economy]] and [[Space colonization|colonization]] practical.<ref name=":133" />{{Rp|pages=25, 26}} |
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Others like Saul Zimet have expressed strong support for the concept, suggesting the possibility that the technological advancements that could be developed on Mars will come to benefit the whole of Earth.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Zimet |first=Saul |date=May 28, 2021 |title=What Elon Musk's Critics Get Wrong About Colonizing Mars |url=https://fee.org/articles/what-elon-musk-s-critics-get-wrong-about-colonizing-mars/ |access-date=April 25, 2024 |website=Foundation for Economic Education}}</ref> |
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===Criticism === |
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SpaceX's plan and colonization of Mars in general, has been criticized ethically and technically. |
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It has been argued that settling Mars may divert attention from solving problems on Earth that may also become problems on Mars,<ref name="j066">{{cite web | last=Bharmal | first=Zahaan | title=The case against Mars colonisation | website=the Guardian | date=2018-08-28 | url=https://www.theguardian.com/science/blog/2018/aug/28/the-case-against-mars-colonisation | access-date=2024-09-14}}</ref> with the reasoning that plans about Mars are always about the plans we have for Earth.<ref name="v547">{{cite web | last=CisnerosMonday | first=Isabella | title=The Space Review: The fault in our Mars settlement plans | website=The Space Review | date=2023-08-21 | url=https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4639/1 | access-date=2024-09-14}}</ref> [[Jeff Bezos]], founder of [[Blue Origin]], SpaceX's competitor in [[commercial spaceflight]], has rejected Mars colonization as a mere "Plan B", suggesting instead to preserve Earth through [[space development]] and moving all heavy industrial activity to space.<ref name="f819">{{cite web | title=Jeff Bezos foresees a trillion people living in millions of space colonies. Here's what he's doing to get the ball rolling. | website=NBC News | date=2019-05-15 | url=https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/jeff-bezos-foresees-trillion-people-living-millions-space-colonies-here-ncna1006036 | access-date=2024-08-06}}</ref> SpaceX's perspective has also been criticised as perpetuating the idea of [[colonialism]].<ref name="d686">{{cite journal | last1=Young | first1=David | last2=Docherty | first2=Niall | title=An anticipatory regime of multiplanetary life: on SpaceX, Martian colonisation and terrestrial ruin | journal=Science as Culture | date=2024-08-22 | issn=0950-5431 | doi=10.1080/09505431.2024.2393096 | pages=1–26| doi-access=free }}</ref><ref name="CNN23"/> It has been pointed out that the impact of human settlement on Mars, with regards to [[planetary protection]], a crucial issue in space exploration, has not been comprehensively answered.<ref name="j066"/> |
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It has been argued that there are physical and social consequences that need to be addressed with regards to long-term survival on the surface of Mars.<ref name="v547"/> Former U.S. President [[Barack Obama]] has characterized Mars as more inhospitable than Earth would be "even after a [[nuclear war]]",<ref name="e729">{{cite web | last=Guenot | first=Marianne | title=Obama takes a shot at the likes of Musk and Bezos, says we must protect Earth before colonizing Mars | website=Business Insider | date=2024-03-14 | url=https://www.businessinsider.com/obama-protect-earth-colonizing-mars-starship-launch-musk-bezos-space-2024-3 | access-date=2024-08-06}}</ref> with others pointing out that Earth and [[nuclear shelter|underground shelters]] on Earth could still provide better conditions and protection for more people from apocalyptic scenarios.<ref name="j066"/> Mars colonization has been called a 'dangerous delusion' by Lord [[Martin Rees]], a British cosmologist/astrophysicist and the [[Astronomer Royal]] of the [[United Kingdom]].<ref>{{Cite web |date=March 15, 2021 |title=Elon Musk's plans for life on Mars are a 'dangerous delusion', says British chief astronomer |url=https://news.sky.com/story/elon-musks-plans-for-life-on-mars-a-dangerous-delusion-12243479 |access-date=August 15, 2024 |website=Sky News}}</ref> Musk has stated that staying on Mars is a life threatening endeavor that needs to be glorious to be worth it.<ref name="CNN23">{{cite web |last=Wattles |first=Jackie |date=December 12, 2023 |title=Colonizing Mars could be dangerous and ridiculously expensive. Elon Musk wants to do it anyway |url=https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/08/tech/spacex-mars-profit-scn/index.html |access-date=August 15, 2024 |website=CNN}}</ref> Exploration of Mars has also been argued to be better left to the already successful robotic missions, with crewed missions simply being too expensive, dangerous and boring.<ref name="j066"/> |
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Regarding the execution of SpaceX's Mars program, the plans have been criticized as far-fetched because of uncertainties in its financing<ref name="NYT-20160927" /> and because it primarily addresses transportation to Mars and not the steps that follow. As of July 2019, SpaceX had not publicly detailed plans for the spacecraft's life-support systems, radiation protection, and in situ resource utilization, which are essential for space colonization.<ref>{{Cite web |last=Grush |first=Loren |date=October 4, 2019 |title=Elon Musk's future Starship updates could use more details on human health and survival |url=https://www.theverge.com/2019/10/4/20895056/elon-musk-starship-spacex-human-health-life-support-radiation |access-date=August 15, 2024 |website=The Verge}}</ref> [[George Dvorsky]] writing for ''[[Gizmodo Media Group|Gizmodo]]'' characterized Musk's timeline for Martian colonization as "stupendously unreasonable" and "pure delusion".<ref>{{Cite web |last=Dvorsky |first=George |date=June 3, 2024 |title=Elon Musk's Plan to Send a Million Colonists to Mars by 2050 Is Pure Delusion |url=https://gizmodo.com/elon-musk-mars-colony-delusion-1848839584 |access-date=August 15, 2024 |website=Gizmodo}}</ref> |
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==Law== |
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SpaceX intends to base the colony governing laws on [[self-determination]],<ref name="p356">{{cite web | last=Cuthbertson | first=Anthony | title=Elon Musk's SpaceX says it will 'make its own laws on Mars' | website=The Independent | date=2020-10-28 | url=https://www.independent.co.uk/space/elon-musk-spacex-mars-laws-starlink-b1396023.html | access-date=2024-07-12}}</ref> and [[direct democracy]] (instead of [[representative democracy]]).<ref name="b122">{{cite journal | last=Wójtowicz | first=Tomasz | last2=Szocik | first2=Konrad | title=Democracy or what? Political system on the planet Mars after its colonization | journal=Technological Forecasting and Social Change | publisher=Elsevier BV | volume=166 | year=2021 | issn=0040-1625 | doi=10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120619 | page=120619}}</ref> Some of this has been introduced through the terms and services agreement for individual users of SpaceX's [[Starlink]] platform, stating the following: "the parties recognize Mars as a free planet and that no Earth-based government has authority or sovereignty over Martian activities".<ref name="v784">{{cite web |last=Mosher |first=Dave |date=2020-11-04 |title=2 sentences in Starlink's terms of service show that SpaceX is serious about creating its 'own legal regime' on Mars |url=https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-elon-musk-free-mars-colony-constitution-space-law-legality-2020-10 |access-date=2024-07-12 |website=Business Insider}}</ref> |
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In contrast to such claims, international [[space law]], proclaiming space being "[[Common heritage of mankind|province of all mankind]]", holds that Mars is not free to be claimed, its legal status sharing some elements of the legal status of [[international waters]].<ref name="v667">{{cite journal | last=Eijk | first=Cristian van | title=Sorry, Elon: Mars is not a legal vacuum – and it's not yours, either | journal=Völkerrechtsblog | date=2020 | publisher=Fachinformationsdienst für internationale und interdisziplinäre Rechtsforschung | doi=10.17176/20210107-183703-0 | url=https://intr2dok.vifa-recht.de/receive/mir_mods_00009795 | access-date=2024-07-12 | page=}}</ref> Furthermore, the realization of direct-democracy by technocratic colonizers<ref name="b122"/> and the legal accommodation of a diverse population is thought to be challenging.<ref name="h193">{{cite web | last=Hart | first=Thomas E. | title=Jurisdiction on Mars | website= Columbia Library Journals - Science and Technology Law Review| date=2024-03-13 | url=https://journals.library.columbia.edu/index.php/stlr/blog/view/298 | access-date=2024-07-12}}</ref> |
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== |
==Trivia== |
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It has been pointed out that, coincidentally, rocket engineer [[Wernher von Braun]] envisioned colonies on Mars lead by a publicly elected leader titled [[Project Mars: A Technical Tale#The "Elon"|the "Elon"]] in his book, ''[[Project Mars: A Technical Tale]].'' <ref name="a811">{{cite web |last=Cooper |first=Gael |date=2021-05-07 |title=Elon Musk's first name shows up in 1953 book about colonizing Mars |url=https://www.cnet.com/culture/elon-musks-first-name-shows-up-in-1953-book-about-colonizing-mars/ |access-date=2024-07-13 |website=CNET}}</ref> |
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{{reflist|group=lower-alpha}} |
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== References == |
== References == |
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== External links == |
== External links == |
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* {{Official|https://www.spacex.com/humanspaceflight/mars}} |
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{{SpaceX}} |
{{SpaceX}} |
Latest revision as of 17:05, 18 November 2024
SpaceX Mars colonization program (colloquially also referred to as Occupy Mars)[1] is a planned objective of the company SpaceX and particularly of its founder Elon Musk to colonize Mars. The main element of this ambition is the plan to establish a self-sustained large scale settlement and colony on Mars, claiming self-determination under direct democracy. The main motivation behind this is the belief that the colonization of Mars allows humanity to become multiplanetary and therefore secures the long-term survival of the human species in case of Earth being rid of human life.[2]
Colonization is to be achieved via the development and use of reusable and mass-produced super heavy-lift launch vehicles called Starship. Starship has been referred to as the "holy grail of rocketry" for extraplanetary colonization.[3]
These plans for colonization have garnered both praise and criticism, being supported as a result of public excitement for further human involvement beyond Earth and a desire to prefer human longevity, and being questioned for its existential perspective, execution, livability and legality.[3]
History
[edit]Elon Musk, founder of SpaceX, has engaged in space advocacy relating to the colonization of Mars since at least 2001 at the Mars Society.[4]: 30–31
As early as 2007, Elon Musk publicly stated a personal goal of eventually enabling human exploration and settlement of Mars.[5]
Subsequently, SpaceX has stated its goal is to colonize Mars to ensure the long-term survival of the human species,[6] proposing since the 2000s and early 2010s different concepts for reaching Mars, including space tugs.
Red Dragon
[edit]Red Dragon was a 2011–2017 concept mission which would have used a modified Dragon 2 spacecraft as a low-cost Mars lander. If flown, it would have been launched on a Falcon Heavy, and land solely via the use of its SuperDraco retro-propulsion thrusters,[7] as parachutes would have required significant vehicle modifications.[8]
In 2011, SpaceX planned on proposing Red Dragon for the Discovery Mission #13, which would launch in 2022,[9][10][11] but it was not submitted. It was then proposed in 2014 as a low-cost way for NASA to achieve a Mars sample return by 2021. In the concept, the Red Dragon capsule would be equipped with the system needed to return samples gathered on Mars. NASA did not fund this concept.
In 2016, SpaceX planned on launching two Red Dragon vehicles[12] in 2018,[13][14] with NASA providing technical support instead of funding.[15] However, in 2017, Red Dragon was cancelled, in favor of the much larger Starship spacecraft.[16]
Starship
[edit]The company's current plan was first formally proposed at the 2016 International Astronautical Congress alongside a fully-reusable launch vehicle, the Interplanetary Transport System. Since then, the launch vehicle was renamed to "Starship", and has been in development since.
The development program reached multiple milestones in 2024 such as on its third test flight, it reached its desired trajectory for the first time and on its fourth flight test, both stages of the vehicle achieved controlled splashdown after launch for the first time.
On 7 September 2024, SpaceX announced that it would launch the first uncrewed Starship missions to Mars in two years, aligning with the next Earth-Mars transfer window. Elon Musk shared on the social media platform X that these missions would focus on testing the reliability of landing Starships intact on Mars. SpaceX plans to launch five uncrewed Starships to Mars during that transfer window.[17] If successful, the company plans to begin crewed flights to Mars in about four years.[18]
Composition
[edit]Goals
[edit]As early as 2007, Elon Musk stated a personal goal of eventually enabling human exploration and settlement of Mars.[5]
SpaceX has stated its goal is to colonize Mars to ensure the long-term survival of the human species by becoming multiplanetary.[6]
Launch system
[edit]SpaceX has been setting up since 2014 a facility called Starbase and more recently a factory called Starfactory on the previously populated and wildlife area Boca Chica (Texas) peninsula in the Rio Grande delta at the Gulf of Mexico,[19] partly justified by SpaceX with its colonial perspective,[20] to launch and build an in development fully reusable super heavy-lift launch vehicle with the name Starship. Aiming with its reusability to drastically reduce launch costs and scaled construction and swift maintenance between flights,[21]: 2 this has been the basis for SpaceX to advance its Mars ambitions and when operational will allow it to provide the necessary transportation capabilities for its colonial goals. The reusability and its resulting reduced launch costs is expected to expand space access to more payloads and entities.[22]
Musk has stated that a Starship orbital launch could eventually cost $2 million, starting at $10 million within 2–3 years and dropping with time.[23] Starfactory is at the same time planned to produce at peak one Starship per day.[24]
The rocket consists of a Super Heavy first stage booster and a Starship second stage spacecraft,[25] powered by Raptor and Raptor Vacuum engines.[26] Both stages are made from stainless steel.[27]
Methane was chosen for the Raptor engines because it is relatively inexpensive, produces a low amount of soot as compared to other hydrocarbons,[28] and can be created on Mars from carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and hydrogen via the Sabatier reaction.[29] The engine family uses a new alloy for the main combustion chamber, allowing it to contain 300 bar (4,400 psi) of pressure, the highest of all current engines.[28] In the future, it may be mass-produced[28] and cost about $230,000 per engine or $100 per kilonewton.[30]
First missions
[edit]Musk has made statements on several occasions about aspirational dates for Starship's earliest possible Mars landing,[31] including in 2022, that a crewed mission to Mars could take place no earlier than 2029.[32]
SpaceX's early missions to Mars are to involve small fleets of Starship spacecraft, funded by public–private partnerships.[33]
SpaceX has stated on several occasions aspirational plans to build a crewed base on Mars for an extended surface presence, which it hopes will grow into a self-sufficient colony.[34][35]
Before any people are transported to Mars, a number of cargo missions would be undertaken first in order to transport the requisite equipment, habitats and supplies.[36] Equipment that would accompany the early groups would include "machines to produce fertilizer, methane and oxygen from Mars' atmospheric nitrogen and carbon dioxide and the planet's subsurface water ice" as well as construction materials to build transparent domes for crop growth.[37][38] As of September 2024, SpaceX plans to launch five uncrewed Starships to Mars during the next available Earth-Mars transfer window in 2026.[17]
Musk plans for the first crewed Mars missions to have approximately 12 people, with goals to "build out and troubleshoot the propellant plant and Mars Base Alpha power system" and establish a "rudimentary base." The company plans to process resources on Mars into fuel for return journeys,[39] and use similar technologies on Earth to create carbon-neutral propellant.[40]
Populating
[edit]The company hopes that once infrastructure is established on Mars and launch cost is reduced, populating can begin.
After the first few windows of crewed Mars landings, Musk has suggested that the number of people who are sent to Mars could be ramped up rapidly.
A successful colonization, meaning an established human presence on Mars growing over many decades, would ultimately involve many more economic actors than SpaceX.[43][44][45]
For reference, Musk's timeline for the colonization of Mars involves a crewed mission as early as 2029 and the development of a self-sustaining colony by 2050.[46]
Musk has stated in 2024 that in-situ resource utilization will be critical for establishing a self-sustaining colony, and that SpaceX plans to begin its efforts in advancing that field in "seven to nine years".[47] Current theories for in-situ resource utilization involve harvesting CO2 from the atmosphere and splitting into its raw components. This will involve using the O2 as well as CH4 for fuel production, and specifically the O2 in addition to Nitrogen (the second-most common gas in the Martian atmosphere) for breathing air within habitats.[48]
The program aims to send a million people to Mars, using a thousand Starships sent during a Mars launch window, which occurs approximately every 26 months.[49] Proposed journeys would require 80 to 150 days of transit time,[45] averaging approximately 115 days (for the nine synodic periods occurring between 2024 and 2041).[50]
Reception and feasibility
[edit]Mars colonization has gained increased interest, both supportive and critical, since the technical achievements of SpaceX's and Elon Musk's rise of popularity in the 2010s, and more so into the 2020s.
Support
[edit]Some experts, like Robert Zubrin, support the concept due to the prevalence of water ice in the form of permafrost and glaciers on Mars, as well as other resources like carbon dioxide and nitrogen.[51] According to Zubrin, Starship's planned lower launch cost could make space research profitable, allowing major advancements in medicine, computers, material science,[4]: 47, 48 making mining profitable as well and space-based economy and colonization practical.[4]: 25, 26
Others like Saul Zimet have expressed strong support for the concept, suggesting the possibility that the technological advancements that could be developed on Mars will come to benefit the whole of Earth.[52]
Criticism
[edit]SpaceX's plan and colonization of Mars in general, has been criticized ethically and technically.
It has been argued that settling Mars may divert attention from solving problems on Earth that may also become problems on Mars,[53] with the reasoning that plans about Mars are always about the plans we have for Earth.[54] Jeff Bezos, founder of Blue Origin, SpaceX's competitor in commercial spaceflight, has rejected Mars colonization as a mere "Plan B", suggesting instead to preserve Earth through space development and moving all heavy industrial activity to space.[55] SpaceX's perspective has also been criticised as perpetuating the idea of colonialism.[56][1] It has been pointed out that the impact of human settlement on Mars, with regards to planetary protection, a crucial issue in space exploration, has not been comprehensively answered.[53]
It has been argued that there are physical and social consequences that need to be addressed with regards to long-term survival on the surface of Mars.[54] Former U.S. President Barack Obama has characterized Mars as more inhospitable than Earth would be "even after a nuclear war",[57] with others pointing out that Earth and underground shelters on Earth could still provide better conditions and protection for more people from apocalyptic scenarios.[53] Mars colonization has been called a 'dangerous delusion' by Lord Martin Rees, a British cosmologist/astrophysicist and the Astronomer Royal of the United Kingdom.[58] Musk has stated that staying on Mars is a life threatening endeavor that needs to be glorious to be worth it.[1] Exploration of Mars has also been argued to be better left to the already successful robotic missions, with crewed missions simply being too expensive, dangerous and boring.[53]
Regarding the execution of SpaceX's Mars program, the plans have been criticized as far-fetched because of uncertainties in its financing[6] and because it primarily addresses transportation to Mars and not the steps that follow. As of July 2019, SpaceX had not publicly detailed plans for the spacecraft's life-support systems, radiation protection, and in situ resource utilization, which are essential for space colonization.[59] George Dvorsky writing for Gizmodo characterized Musk's timeline for Martian colonization as "stupendously unreasonable" and "pure delusion".[60]
Law
[edit]SpaceX intends to base the colony governing laws on self-determination,[61] and direct democracy (instead of representative democracy).[62] Some of this has been introduced through the terms and services agreement for individual users of SpaceX's Starlink platform, stating the following: "the parties recognize Mars as a free planet and that no Earth-based government has authority or sovereignty over Martian activities".[63]
In contrast to such claims, international space law, proclaiming space being "province of all mankind", holds that Mars is not free to be claimed, its legal status sharing some elements of the legal status of international waters.[64] Furthermore, the realization of direct-democracy by technocratic colonizers[62] and the legal accommodation of a diverse population is thought to be challenging.[65]
Trivia
[edit]It has been pointed out that, coincidentally, rocket engineer Wernher von Braun envisioned colonies on Mars lead by a publicly elected leader titled the "Elon" in his book, Project Mars: A Technical Tale. [66]
References
[edit]- ^ a b c Wattles, Jackie (December 12, 2023). "Colonizing Mars could be dangerous and ridiculously expensive. Elon Musk wants to do it anyway". CNN. Retrieved August 15, 2024.
- ^ Sheetz, Michael (April 23, 2021). "Elon Musk wants SpaceX to reach Mars so humanity is not a 'single-planet species'". CNBC. Archived from the original on October 2, 2021. Retrieved January 12, 2024.
- ^ a b Sheetz, Michael (November 5, 2019). "Elon Musk: SpaceX is chasing the 'holy grail' of completely reusing a rocket". CNBC. Retrieved July 23, 2024.
- ^ a b c Zubrin, Robert (May 14, 2019). The Case for Space: How the Revolution in Spaceflight Opens Up a Future of Limitless Possibility. Amherst, New York: Prometheus Books. ISBN 978-1-63388-534-9. OCLC 1053572666.
- ^ a b Hoffman, Carl (May 22, 2007). "Elon Musk Is Betting His Fortune on a Mission Beyond Earth's Orbit". Wired Magazine. Archived from the original on November 14, 2012. Retrieved March 14, 2014.
- ^ a b c Chang, Kenneth (September 27, 2016). "Elon Musk's Plan: Get Humans to Mars, and Beyond". The New York Times. Archived from the original on September 29, 2016. Retrieved September 27, 2016.
- ^ David, Leonard (March 7, 2014). "Project 'Red Dragon': Mars Sample-Return Mission Could Launch in 2022 with SpaceX Capsule". Space.com. Archived from the original on March 2, 2021. Retrieved March 8, 2014.
- ^ "Red Dragon", Feasibility of a Dragon-derived Mars lander for scientific and human-precursor investigations (PDF), 8m.net, October 31, 2011, archived (PDF) from the original on June 16, 2012, retrieved May 14, 2012
- ^ Spacex Dragon lander could land on Mars with a mission under the NASA Discovery Program cost cap. Archived 2016-11-10 at the Wayback Machine 20 June 2014.
- ^ Wall, Mike (July 31, 2011). "'Red Dragon' Mission Mulled as Cheap Search for Mars Life". SPACE.com. Archived from the original on December 1, 2011. Retrieved May 1, 2012.
- ^ "NASA ADVISORY COUNCIL (NAC) - Science Committee Report" (PDF). Ames Research Center, NASA. November 1, 2011. Archived from the original (PDF) on January 20, 2013. Retrieved May 1, 2012.
- ^ Agamoni Ghosh (May 11, 2017). "Nasa says SpaceX may send two Red Dragon spacecraft to Mars in 2020 in case one fails". International Business Times. Archived from the original on May 18, 2017. Retrieved May 25, 2017.
- ^ Davenport, Christian (June 13, 2016). "Elon Musk provides new details on his 'mind blowing' mission to Mars". Washington Post. Archived from the original on June 10, 2016. Retrieved June 14, 2016.
- ^ Drake, Nadia (April 27, 2016). "SpaceX Plans to Send Spacecraft to Mars in 2018". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on September 19, 2018. Retrieved April 28, 2016.
- ^ Newmann, Dava (April 27, 2016). "Exploring Together". NASA Official Blog. Archived from the original on May 1, 2016. Retrieved April 27, 2016.
- ^ Ralph, Eric (July 19, 2017). "SpaceX skipping Red Dragon for "vastly bigger ships" on Mars, Musk confirms". TESLARATI. Archived from the original on May 26, 2021. Retrieved April 15, 2020.
- ^ a b "SpaceX plans to send five uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years, Musk says". Reuters. September 22, 2024. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
- ^ "Musk says SpaceX to launch first uncrewed Starships to Mars in two years". Reuters. September 7, 2024. Retrieved September 8, 2024.
- ^ Reilly, Patrick (February 19, 2023). "Residents of Elon Musk's 'space city' say he destroyed quiet beach town". New York Post. Retrieved July 15, 2024.
- ^ Korpershoek, Karlijn (December 26, 2023). "Accessibility to Space Infrastructures and Outer Space: Anthropological Insights from Europe's Spaceport". International Journal of the Commons. 17 (1): 481–491. doi:10.5334/ijc.1284. ISSN 1875-0281.
- ^ Inman, Jennifer Ann; Horvath, Thomas J.; Scott, Carey Fulton (August 24, 2021). SCIFLI Starship Reentry Observation (SSRO) ACO (SpaceX Starship). Game Changing Development Annual Program Review 2021. NASA. Archived from the original on October 11, 2021. Retrieved October 12, 2021.
- ^ Mann, Adam (May 20, 2020). "SpaceX now dominates rocket flight, bringing big benefits—and risks—to NASA". Science. doi:10.1126/science.abc9093. S2CID 219490398. Archived from the original on November 7, 2021. Retrieved November 28, 2021.
- ^ Duffy, Kate. "Elon Musk says he's 'highly confident' that SpaceX's Starship rocket launches will cost less than $10 million within 2-3 years". Business Insider. Archived from the original on January 19, 2024. Retrieved January 12, 2024.
- ^ Garofalo, Meredith (June 8, 2024). "SpaceX wants to build 1 Starship megarocket a day with new Starfactory". Space.com. Retrieved June 10, 2024.
- ^ Amos, Jonathan (August 6, 2021). "Biggest ever rocket is assembled briefly in Texas". BBC News. Archived from the original on August 11, 2021. Retrieved May 30, 2022.
- ^ Ryan, Jackson (October 21, 2021). "SpaceX Starship Raptor vacuum engine fired for the first time". CNET. Archived from the original on June 9, 2022. Retrieved June 9, 2022.
- ^ Chang, Kenneth (September 28, 2019). "Elon Musk Sets Out SpaceX Starship's Ambitious Launch Timeline". The New York Times. Archived from the original on April 7, 2020. Retrieved July 8, 2022.
- ^ a b c O'Callaghan, Jonathan (July 31, 2019). "The wild physics of Elon Musk's methane-guzzling super-rocket". Wired UK. Archived from the original on February 22, 2021. Retrieved December 9, 2021.
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