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The [[Institute of International Finance]] predicted that Lebanon's GDP could decline by one percent by the end of the year and by 30 percent in 2024 in the event of further spillover of the war.<ref>[https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1355703/ifi-says-lebanese-economy-is-vulnerable-to-hamas-israel-war.html#:~:text=If%20the%20Hamas%2DIsrael%20conflict,and%20%243%20billion%20in%202024. IIF says Lebanese economy is vulnerable to Hamas-Israel war] ''L'Orient-Le Jour''. 1 November 2023 - via [https://today.lorientlejour.com/ today.lorientlejour.com/]</ref>
The [[Institute of International Finance]] predicted that Lebanon's GDP could decline by one percent by the end of the year and by 30 percent in 2024 in the event of further spillover of the war.<ref>[https://today.lorientlejour.com/article/1355703/ifi-says-lebanese-economy-is-vulnerable-to-hamas-israel-war.html#:~:text=If%20the%20Hamas%2DIsrael%20conflict,and%20%243%20billion%20in%202024. IIF says Lebanese economy is vulnerable to Hamas-Israel war] ''L'Orient-Le Jour''. 1 November 2023 - via [https://today.lorientlejour.com/ today.lorientlejour.com/]</ref>

==Impact on US–Iran relations==
The war between Israel and [[Hamas]] has deepened the struggle between the US and Iran for influence in the Middle East. Iran's long-term strategy involves destroying Israel and driving a wedge between Israel and its regional neighbors. Despite tensions and anger across the region, the [[Biden administration]]'s efforts to contain Iran and prevent a wider war are in line with the priorities of most Arab governments.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://theconversation.com/the-israel-hamas-war-deepens-the-struggle-between-us-and-iran-for-influence-in-the-middle-east-215852|title=The Israel-Hamas war deepens the struggle between US and Iran for influence in the Middle East|first=John|last=Ciorciari|date=October 23, 2023|website=The Conversation}}</ref>


==Evacuations of foreign nationals==
==Evacuations of foreign nationals==

Revision as of 13:23, 26 November 2023

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, 7 June 2023

The outbreak of the 2023 Israel–Hamas war led to an increased dislike of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the government from Israeli citizens due to a perceived failure of leadership on the issue,[1] with increased calls for Netanyahu's resignation.[2]

Global attention on Hamas had implications for countries like Turkey and Qatar, which have strong ties with Hamas, and the United States was actively working with Qatar to secure the release of hostages.[3]

Hamas's actions had a significant impact on diplomatic efforts, potentially derailing a US-brokered deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia. The New York Times noted that the prospects of Israeli and Saudi normalization seemed less likely due to concerns about the situation's escalation and Palestinian rights. Additionally, there were speculations that Iran might have been trying to disrupt relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.[4] On 14 October, Saudi Arabia suspended talks on the possible normalization of relations with Israel.[5]

Various leaders and experts speculated about the potential for the conflict to expand, and even lead to a war between Israel and Iran, with Iranian officials expressing a willingness to intervene if Israel continues military operations or launches a ground invasion against Gaza, further indicating the possibility of region-wide escalation of the conflict.[6]

Ukraine expressed concerns that Russia might exploit the Israel–Hamas conflict to diminish international support for Ukraine, while Russia portrayed it as a Western policy failure. Russian president Vladimir Putin characterized the conflict as an example of the failure of United States policy in the Middle East and suggested it would affect Western support for Ukraine, potentially impacting Russia's relations with Israel.[7]

The United States launched new sanctions to try and cut off Iranian network funding Hamas.[8]

Since the beginning of the war, Islamophobic incidents have been reported on the rise in the West, while antisemitic attacks have exponentially increased worldwide.[9][10]

Background

The initial attacks by Hamas in the 2023 Israel–Hamas war marked a notable escalation in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, standing out for the scale and reach of both rocket fire and incursions within Israel from the Gaza border. This was a significant departure from prior conflicts, which typically followed a phased progression with a gradual escalation of tensions.[11] It has been compared to the 1941 Attack on Pearl Harbor,[12] the 1968 Tet Offensive, 1973 Yom Kippur War, the 2001 September 11 attacks,[13] and the 2003 Ramadan Offensive.[14][15][16] Like the Tet Offensive, Hamas's attack came on the morning of a holiday, seemed to be "everywhere at once", and demonstrated capabilities not thought possible in a guerrilla force.[17]

Palestinian factions

According to Daniel Byman and Alexander Palmer, the attack showcased the decline of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) and the rise of Hamas as a power center in Palestinian politics. They predicted the PLO's further decline if the status quo held.[18] Laith Alajlouni wrote that the immediate effect of the Hamas offensive was to unite Hamas and PLO. However, it may soon lead to conflict between them, possibly leading the PLO losing control of the security situation in the West Bank, if more militant groups there begin to launch their own independent attacks.[19]

With global attention on Hamas, Emile Hokayem wrote that Turkey and Qatar, which have privileged relations with Hamas, may be accused of overly indulging Hamas and being tarnished by association.[19] However, on 13 October, Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated in a joint press conference with Qatari Prime Minister and foreign minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani that the US was "working intensively" with the Gulf state in order to secure the hostages and expressed his gratitude "for the urgency that Qatar is bringing to this effort."[20][21][22]

Netanyahu government

Further information: Israeli war cabinet
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in Tel Aviv, Israel, 13 October 2023

Amit Segal, chief political commentator for Israel's Channel 12, said that the conflict would test Benjamin Netanyahu's survival as prime minister, noting that past wars had toppled the governments of several of his predecessors such as that of Golda Meir following the 1973 Yom Kippur War, Menachem Begin following the 1982 Lebanon War, and Ehud Olmert following the 2006 Lebanon War.[23] Prior to the formation of an emergency unity government on 11 October, Politico described the then-potential move as Netanyahu's opportunity to correct his course and save his political legacy.[24] Citing the Israeli intelligence failure, which some observers attributed to the incumbent government focusing more on internal dissent, the judicial reform, and efforts to deepen Israel's occupation of the Palestinian territories,[25] some commentators criticized Netanyahu for putting aside the PLO and propping up Hamas,[26] and described him as a liability.[27][28]

Political journalist Peter Beaumont described the attack as "an intelligence failure for the ages" on the part of the Israeli government.[29] The Jewish News Syndicate deemed it a "failure of imagination".[30] A BBC report on the intelligence failure noted that "it must have taken extraordinary levels of operational security by Hamas."[31] US officials expressed shock at how Israeli intelligence appeared to be unaware of any preparations by Hamas.[32] Israeli officials later anonymously reported to Axios that the IDF and Shin Bet had detected abnormal movements by Hamas the day before the attack, but decided to wait for additional intelligence before raising the military's alert level. They also did not inform political leaders of the intelligence reports.[33]

Sources in Hamas and Israel's military establishment told Reuters the attack was the culmination of a years-long campaign by Hamas to deceive Israel into thinking that the group was primarily interested in economic and governance issues instead of fighting.[34] An IDF colonel anonymously told Middle East Eye that intelligence units had detected Hamas training activities but misjudged their intent; they assessed these would be used in a series of separate attacks, rather than a large combined one.[35]

Amir Avivi, former deputy commander of the IDF's Gaza Division, told the Financial Times it was "a failure that is no smaller than the Yom Kippur War."[36] Yaakov Amidror, a former National Security Advisor to Netanyahu, said the attack proved their intelligence abilities in Gaza "were no good". An unnamed Egyptian intelligence official told the Associated Press that "[Egypt] warned them an explosion of the situation is coming, and very soon, and it would be big. But they underestimated such warnings."[37] This story was corroborated by Michael McCaul, Chairman of the US House Foreign Relations Committee, who said the warnings were made three days before the attack.[38]

On 11 October, Ynet reported that Egypt's Director of the General Intelligence Directorate, Abbas Kamel, made a personal phone call to Netanyahu ten days prior to the initial attack warning that individuals in Gaza were expected to do "something unusual, a terrible operation."[39] Former MI6 chief Sir Alex Younger voiced his opinion that Hamas fighters were able to carry out their attack due to "institutional complacency" in Israel.[40] Netanyahu described the reports as "absolutely false" and "fake news".[40][39]

The outbreak of war led to increased dislike of Netanyahu and the government from Israeli citizens due to a perceived failure of leadership on the issue,[41] with increased calls for Netanyahu's resignation.[42] A poll showed that 56% of Israelis believed that Netanyahu must resign after the conflict, with 86% of respondents holding the country's leadership responsible for the security failings that led to the surprise attack.[41][43] By 14 November, a poll by Bar Ilan University estimated that less than 4% of Jewish Israelis trusted Netanyahu to give accurate information about the war.[44] As of 12 October, Netanyahu had failed to apologize or take responsibility for his government's failure.[45][46]

Effects On Politics

The 2023 Israel–Hamas war sparked a major diplomatic crisis, with many countries around the world reacting strongly to the conflict that affected the momentum of regional relations.[47] At least nine countries took the drastic step of recalling their ambassadors and cutting diplomatic ties with Israel.[48][49]

Recognition of the State of Palestine

Main article: International recognition of the State of Palestine

In response to the conflict, Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares stated Spain was in favor of recognizing the State of Palestine within a short-term timeframe.[50] Belgium’s Minister of Development Cooperation Caroline Gennez stated Belgium was also considering recognizing the state of Palestine.[51]

Israeli–Saudi Arabian normalization

Further information: Arab–Israeli normalization
See also: Israel–Saudi Arabia relations
Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, 14 October 2023

In an analysis by The Times of Israel, the newspaper wrote that "Hamas has violently shifted the world's eyes back to the Palestinians and dealt a severe blow to the momentum for securing a landmark US-brokered deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia."[52] The New York Times reported that the prospects of Israeli and Saudi normalization appeared dimmer, citing Saudi Arabia's statement that the country had repeatedly warned "of the dangers of the explosion of the situation as a result of the continued occupation, the deprivation of the Palestinian people and their legitimate rights and the repetition of systemic provocations against its sanctities."[53][54]

Andreas Kluth wrote in his Bloomberg News column that Hamas "torched Biden's deal to remake the Middle East", arguing that the deal that was being discussed between Saudi Arabia, Israel and the United States would have left Palestinians in the cold, so the group decided to "blow the whole thing up." He added that, viewed from Gaza, things were only going to get worse, considering that Netanyahu's coalition partners opposed a two-state solution for the conflict. He suggested they would prefer to annex the entirety of the West Bank, even at the expense of turning Israel into an apartheid state, something critics have long claimed as Israel's goal.[55]

Speculation arose that Iran was trying to sabotage relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia,[56] with former head of research for Shin Bet Neomi Neumann saying the attack could have been timed in part due to Iran's hopes to scuttle efforts to normalize relations between Israel and its Sunni rival.[57] On 9 October, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani denied claims of Tehran's involvement in Hamas's attack.[58] On 12 October, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussed the Israel-Gaza situation with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi.[59] On 13 October, Saudi Arabia criticized Israel for the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza and the attacks on "defenceless civilians". On 14 October, Saudi Arabia suspended talks on the possible normalization of relations with Israel. On October 27, Saudi Arabia warned the United States that an invasion of Gaza by Israel would be "catastrophic for the Middle East"[60]

Regional escalation

Main article: Iran–Israel proxy conflict
See also: 2023 American military bases bombings

Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas, speculated the war would spread to Jerusalem and the West Bank.[61] Hashim Safi Al Din, Head of Hezbollah's Executive Council, threatened to join the conflict.[62] Max Abrahms, a political scientist at Northeastern University, opined that the conflict could escalate into a war between Israel and Iran.[63] During a meeting with UN diplomat Tor Wennesland on 14 October, Iranian foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian asserted that Iran will intervene in the war if Israel continues its military operations or launches a ground invasion against Gaza.[64]

On 16 October, Iran threatened "pre-emptive" attacks against Israel, indicating further region-wide escalation of the war. Iranian foreign minister stated: "The possibility of pre-emptive action by the resistance front is expected in the coming hours... All options are open and we cannot be indifferent to the war crimes committed against the people of Gaza."[65][66]

Russo-Ukrainian War

See also: Russia and the Iran–Israel proxy conflict, Israel–Russia relations, and Israel–Ukraine relations
Russian President Vladimir Putin visiting Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran, 19 July 2022

Ukraine asserted that Russia would attempt to exploit the Israel-Hamas conflict to reduce international support for Ukraine, while Russia called it a Western policy failure.[67] Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of seeking to precipitate conflict in the Middle East to "undermine world unity, increase discord and contradictions, and thus help Russia destroy freedom in Europe."[68][69]

Russian president Vladimir Putin declared the war "a clear example of the failure of United States policy in the Middle East", adding that Washington had consistently failed to take into account the fundamental interests of Palestinians. Russian commentators characterized the war as a military and intelligence failure of the West, predicting it would sap Western support for Ukraine. The New York Times stated that Russia's relations with Israel were deteriorating, driven in part by Western support for Ukraine and Iran's continued support for Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War.[70] Bloomberg columnist Andreas Kluth wrote that some Trump-supporting Republican legislators supported aid for Israel but opposed it for Ukraine.[71] Politico wrote that it was a foregone conclusion that the war would divert US attention from Ukraine.[72]

British politics

As a result of the conflict, British politics has been affected. Labour MP Andy McDonald had the whip suspended after he made a speech at a pro-Palestinian rally.[73] He later sued Conservative MP Chris Clarkson over his response to his comments.[74]

In October 2023, Conservative MP Paul Bristow wrote a letter urging Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to support a "permanent ceasefire" in the 2023 Israel–Hamas war for humanitarian reasons. In further comments on his Facebook page, he said Palestinians "should not suffer collective punishment for the crimes of Hamas." Bristow co-chairs the all-party parliamentary group on British Muslims. He was fired as Parliamentary Private Secretary at the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology for his comments as they diverged from the government's position and "not consistent with the principles of collective responsibility". Bristow was the first Conservative MP to diverge.[75]

Dozens of Labour Party councillors resigned due to Leader of the Labour Party Keir Starmer's decision not to push for a ceasefire in the 2023 Israel–Hamas war.[76] Oxford City Council became under no overall control.[77] By 25 October, 31 councillors had resigned from the party.[78] All 18 Labour members of Slough Borough Council publicly defied Starmer calling for a ceasefire.[79]

The relatives of First Minister of Scotland Humza Yousaf and Liberal Democrat MP Layla Moran were stranded in the Gaza Strip.[80][81]

On 8 November 2023, Imran Hussain resigned as Shadow Minister because of Keir Starmer's refusal to call for a ceasefire.[82] Hussain said he wanted to be a "strong advocate for the humanitarian ceasefire", but could not do that as a frontbencher "given its current position".[83]

On 15 November 2023, Keir Starmer suffered his largest defeat as leader when 56 of his MPs defied a three line whip to vote for a SNP motion to support a ceasefire in Gaza.[84] This included 10 frontbenchers; Jess Phillips, Naz Shah, Afzal Khan, Yasmin Qureshi, Sarah Owen, Rachel Hopkins, Andy Slaughter, Paula Barker, Mary Foy and Dan Carden.[85]

Jordan politics

See also: Jordan–Israel relations

As a consequence of the conflict between Israel and Hamas, the political landscape of Jordan has been impacted. Bisher al Khasawneh, the Prime Minister of Jordan, expressed his country's disapproval of Israel's offensive in Gaza by recalling its ambassador from Israel. Additionally, Jordan declared that Israel's ambassador, who had departed Amman following Hamas' attack, would not be permitted to return. Khasawneh emphasized that Jordan is considering all available options in its response to the Israeli aggression on Gaza and its subsequent consequences. It is noteworthy that Jordan and Israel had signed a peace treaty in 1994. Khasawneh argued that Israel's blockade of the heavily populated Gaza Strip cannot be justified as self-defense, contrary to their claims. He further emphasized that the indiscriminate Israeli assault does not differentiate between civilian and military objectives, even targeting safe zones and ambulances.[86][87]

Brazilian politics

See also: Brazil–Israel relations and Brazil–Palestine relations
File:2023-11-13 Lula welcoming Gaza evacuees.jpg
Brazilian president Lula welcoming Gaza evacuees
File:2023-11-13 Lula welcoming Gaza evacuees - Shahed.jpg
Lula welcoming Shahed (center) and her sister (left)

On October 18, Brazil dispatched a plane to Egypt carrying water purifiers to donate to Gaza, intending to evacuate Brazilians dual nationals from Gaza upon its return. The aircraft was scheduled to wait until Israel approved the departure of the Brazilian nationals.[88][89]

On November 1, the first list of about 500 foreigners allowed to leave Gaza was released.[90] As days passed, individuals of various nationalities but not Brazilians were permitted to leave Gaza. This led to suspicions among some Brazilians that Israel were doing a retaliation due to Brazil's role in the UN.[91][92]

The Israeli ambassador to Brazil, Daniel Zohar Zonshine, reassured there were no political reasons for the delayed authorization.[93]

On November 8, ambassador Zonshine remarked that Egypt was setting a daily quota for evacuations and attributed the delays to Hamas.[94]

Journalist Reinaldo Azevedo criticized this explanation, alleging that the list of evacuees was determined by Israel and that Brazilian nationals were being held as diplomatic hostages.[95][96]

On the same day, Brazilian Federal Police executed two temporary arrest warrants and eleven search warrants against a group suspected of preparing for terrorism. The operation sought evidence of possible recruitment of Brazilians for terrorist acts in Brazil linked to Hezbollah.[97] Ambassador Zonshine commented, "If they chose Brazil, it's because there are people helping them."[98] This statement elicited a strong and critical reaction from Brazilian authorities.[99][100]

On November 9, former president Jair Bolsonaro tweeted that the Workers' Party (PT), the party of the current president Lula, sympathies with Hamas.[101] That afternoon, Zonshine met with Brazilian deputies, showing videos from the events of October 7 and sitting next to Bolsonaro. This meeting generated significant negative repercussions.[101][102][103][104][105][106] Some deputies, like Lindbergh Farias of PT, even called for Zonshine's expulsion.[107][108]

On November 10, Brazilians were authorized to leave Gaza, but the border remained closed. On November 12, all of the 32 Brazilians who requested to be evacuated were able to leave Gaza through Egypt.[102][109] They were transported on the presidential aircraft VC-2. Upon their arrival in Brasilia on the night of November 13, they were welcomed by president Lula. During this reception, the president condemned Israel's response as inhumane.[110][111]

Support for Osama bin Laden

In November 2023, Bin Laden's "Letter to the American people", published in 2002, went viral on TikTok and other social media. In the letter, Bin Laden denounced numerous acts of American aggression such as U.S. support for Israel, and supported al-Qaeda's war against the U.S. as a defensive struggle. Numerous social media users, including Americans, expressed their opposition to US foreign policy by widely sharing the letter and its contents. The letter was removed from The Guardian website after more than 20 years of being present online in the news outlet's webpage, and TikTok began issuing takedowns of videos featuring the letter.[112][113][114] Reporting in The Washington Post suggested that the virality of the letter had been limited prior to media coverage, having never trended on TikTok, that many of the TikTok videos covering the letter were critical of bin Laden, and that the media coverage had exaggerated its significance and elevated the virality of the letter.[115]

Lebanon

The olive trade in southern Lebanon, which is the main source of income for many, was halted as farmers stopped their harvests in fear of the active shelling.[116][117] According to the Agriculture Minister Abbas Hajj Hassan, 40,000 olive trees were burned down by fires caused by IDF shelling.[118]

The Institute of International Finance predicted that Lebanon's GDP could decline by one percent by the end of the year and by 30 percent in 2024 in the event of further spillover of the war.[119]

Impact on US–Iran relations

The war between Israel and Hamas has deepened the struggle between the US and Iran for influence in the Middle East. Iran's long-term strategy involves destroying Israel and driving a wedge between Israel and its regional neighbors. Despite tensions and anger across the region, the Biden administration's efforts to contain Iran and prevent a wider war are in line with the priorities of most Arab governments.[120]

Evacuations of foreign nationals

Main article: Evacuations during the 2023 Israel–Hamas war

Hungary evacuated 215 of its nationals from Israel using two aircraft on 9 October, while Romania evacuated 245 of its citizens, including two pilgrimage groups, on two TAROM planes and two private aircraft on the same day.[121] Australia also announced repatriation flights.[122] 300 Nigerian pilgrims in Israel fled to Jordan before being airlifted home.[123]

India launched Operation Ajay in order to evacuate its citizens from Israel.[124]

On 12 October, the United Kingdom arranged flights for its citizens in Israel; the first plane departed Ben-Gurion Airport that day. The government had said before that it would not be evacuating its nationals due to available commercial flights. However, the flights were commercial.[125]

Effects on Children

Further information: Children in the Israeli–Palestinian conflict § Effects on children

Children were disproportionately impacted by Israel's attack on Gaza.[126] On 13 November, UNICEF stated more than 700,000 children in Gaza were displaced.[127] The Palestine Red Crescent Society stated displaced children were suffering, due to power outages, lack of basic essentials, and "scenes of pain and fear."[128] Catherine M. Russell, the executive director of UNICEF, toured Gaza on 15 November, stating many children were buried under rubble and lacking medical care.[129] Dr. Ahmed al-Fara, the head of pediatrics at Nasser Medical Complex in Khan Younis, stated due to the lack of clean water, he was witnessing the "most serious epidemic of gastroenteritis" among children he had ever seen.[130] UNICEF spokesperson Toby Fricker stated, "There is no safe place for children anywhere across the strip right now."[131] Save the Children reported serious signs of mental health issues among children in Gaza.[132]

Boycott of Western companies

People in some Muslim countries have boycotted Western businesses, especially American ones such as Starbucks, McDonald's and Coca-Cola, reflecting anger at Western governments' support for Israel.[133][134][135][136][137]

See also

References

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