IPCC First Assessment Report

The First Assessment Report (FAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was completed in 1990. It served as the basis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This report had effects not only on the establishment of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), but also on the first conference of the parties (COP), held in Berlin in 1995.

The executive summary of the WG I Summary for Policymakers report says they are certain that emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth's surface. They calculate with confidence that CO₂ has been responsible for over half the enhanced greenhouse effect. They predict that under a "business as usual" (BAU) scenario, global mean temperature will increase by about 0.3 °C per decade during the [21st] century. They judge that global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 °C over the last 100 years, broadly consistent with prediction of climate models, but also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability. The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect is not likely for a decade or more.

The 1992 supplementary report was an update, requested in the context of the negotiations on the UNFCCC at the Earth Summit (United Nations Conference on Environment and Development) in Rio de Janeiro in 1992.

The major conclusion was that research since 1990 did "not affect our fundamental understanding of the science of the greenhouse effect and either confirm or do not justify alteration of the major conclusions of the first IPCC scientific assessment". It noted that transient (time-dependent) simulations, which had been very preliminary in the FAR, were now improved, but did not include aerosol or ozone changes.

Overview

The report was issued in three main sections, corresponding to the three Working Groups of scientists that the IPCC had established.

• Working Group I: Scientific Assessment of Climate Change, edited by J.T. Houghton, G.J. Jenkins and J.J. Ephraums
• Working Group II: Impacts Assessment of Climate Change, edited by W.J. McG. Tegart, G.W. Sheldon and D.C. Griffiths
• Working Group III:The IPCC Response Strategies

Each section included a summary for policymakers. This format was followed in subsequent Assessment Reports.

The executive summary of the policymakers' summary of the WG I report includes:

• We are certain of the following: there is a natural greenhouse effect...; emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases: CO₂, methane, CFCs and nitrous oxide. These increases will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth's surface. The main greenhouse gas, water vapour, will increase in response to global warming and further enhance it.
• We calculate with confidence that: ...CO₂ has been responsible for over half the enhanced greenhouse effect; long-lived gases would require immediate reductions in emissions from human activities of over 60% to stabilise their concentrations at today's levels...
• Based on current models, we predict: under [BAU] increase of global mean temperature during the [21st] century of about 0.3 °C per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2 to 0.5 °C per decade); this is greater than that seen over the past 10,000 years; under other ... scenarios which assume progressively increasing levels of controls, rates of increase in global mean temperature of about 0.2 °C [to] about 0.1 °C per decade.
• There are many uncertainties in our predictions particularly with regard to the timing, magnitude and regional patterns of climate change, due to our incomplete understanding of: sources and sinks of GHGs; clouds; oceans; polar ice sheets.
• Our judgement is that: global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 °C over the last 100 years...; The size of this warming is broadly consistent with predictions of climate models, but it is also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability. Thus the observed increase could be largely due to this natural variability; alternatively this variability and other human factors could have offset a still larger human-induced greenhouse warming. The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect is not likely for a decade or more.
• under the IPCC business as usual emissions scenario, an average rate of global mean sea level rise of about 6 cm per decade over the next century (with an uncertainty range of 3 – 10 cm per decade), mainly due to thermal expansion of the oceans and the melting of some land ice. The predicted rise is about 20 cm ... by 2030, and 65 cm by the end of the next century.

See also

• Avoiding dangerous climate change
• Business action on climate change
• Energy conservation
• Energy policy
• Global climate model
• Individual and political action on climate change
• Precautionary principle
• World energy resources and consumption

External links

• IPCC 1990 FAR - Working Group I: Scientific Assessment of Climate Change
• IPCC 1990 FAR - Working Group II: Impacts Assessment of Climate Change
• IPCC 1990 FAR - Working Group III: The IPCC Response Strategies