2007 Australian federal election
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Federal elections for the Parliament of Australia were held on Saturday 24 November, 2007 after a 6-week campaign, in which 13.6 million Australians were enrolled to vote.[1] All 150 seats in the House of Representatives and 40 seats in the 76-member Senate were contested in the election.
The opposition centre-left Australian Labor Party, led by Kevin Rudd and deputy leader Julia Gillard, won the election against the incumbent centre-right coalition government, led by Liberal Party leader and Prime Minister John Howard and Nationals leader and Deputy Prime Minister Mark Vaile, which had been in power since the 1996 election.[2] The following tables display the votes counted so far[3][4] by the AEC and seat results[2][5] by the ABC:
| Party | Votes | % | Swing | Predicted Seats Won |
Predicted Change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australian Labor Party | 5,375,087 | 43.38 | +5.74 | 83 | +23 | |
| Liberal Party of Australia | 4,495,615 | 36.28 | -4.19 | 55 | -20 | |
| Australian Greens | 963,986 | 7.78 | +0.59 | 0 | 0 | |
| National Party of Australia | 682,314 | 5.51 | -0.38 | 10 | -3 | |
| Family First Party | 246,138 | 1.99 | -0.02 | 0 | 0 | |
| Australian Democrats | 89,445 | 0.72 | -0.52 | 0 | 0 | |
| Independents | 274,987 | 2.22 | -0.24 | 2 | -1 | |
| Other | 263,495 | 2.12 | -0.98 | 0 | 0 | |
| Total | 12,391,057 | 150 | ||||
| Australian Labor Party | WIN | 52.88 | +5.62 | 83 | +23 | |
| Liberal/National coalition | 47.12 | -5.62 | 65 | –23 |
Independents: Tony Windsor, Bob Katter
| Party | Votes | % | Swing | Predicted Seats Won |
Predicted Seats Held | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australian Labor Party | 4,950,288 | 40.41 | +5.39 | 18 | 32 | |
| Liberal/National (Joint Ticket)[6] | 3,779,048 | 30.85 | -3.38 | 9 | ||
| Australian Greens | 1,097,821 | 8.96 | +1.29 | 3 | 5 | |
| Liberal Party of Australia | 1,058,156 | 8.64 | -1.76 | 8 | 32 | |
| Family First Party | 197,981 | 1.62 | -0.14 | 0 | 1 | |
| Australian Democrats | 155,976 | 1.27 | -0.82 | 0 | 0 | |
| Pauline's UAP | 138,214 | 1.13 | * | 0 | 0 | |
| Country Liberal Party | 40,195 | 0.33 | -0.02 | 1 | 1 | |
| National Party of Australia | 18,985 | 0.15 | +0.04 | 0 | 4 | |
| Other | 814,515 | 6.64 | -1.73 | 1 | 1 | |
| Total | 12,251,179 | 40 | 76 |
Independents: Nick Xenophon
Results
House results
At 10.29pm AEST on 24 November 2007, approximately two hours after the last polls closed, Peter Costello conceded that the Coalition had lost government. At 10.36pm, John Howard delivered a speech at the Sofitel Wentworth Hotel in Sydney to concede defeat. He accepted full responsibility for the coalition's defeat. At 11.05pm, Kevin Rudd delivered his victory speech.
It is expected that Labor will hold 84 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.[7][2] This represents a 24 seat swing to Labor.[8]
Considering two party preferred estimates going back to the 1949 election, the swing to Labor in 2007 is the third largest two-party swing, behind Malcolm Fraser and the coalition in 1975 on 7.4 per cent, and Gough Whitlam and Labor in 1969 on 7.1 per cent. The swing is the largest since 1983, when full preference counting was introduced to create an exact two party figure. The 24-seat swing to Labor is the fifth-largest defeat of the previously elected government since Federation, behind 1949 (47 seats were added to the lower house, both parties gained additional seats, with the coalition gaining an additional 48 seats), 1975 (30-seat swing to the Coalition), 1996 (29-seat swing to the Coalition) and 1983 (24-seat swing to Labor, but in a smaller parliament).
In addition, Howard lost his own seat of Bennelong to Labor challenger Maxine McKew, becoming only the second sitting Prime Minister since Federation to be defeated in his own electorate. He had held the seat since 1974, and it had been in Liberal hands ever since its creation in 1949. The two-party/two-candidate preferred vote in this seat is 2.4 per cent in McKew's favour — a 5.3 per cent swing from 2004 — with 93.1 per cent of the ballots counted. Howard was only 206 votes ahead of McKew on the first count. This swing is within the current boundaries; Bennelong was redistributed after the 2004 election. [9] In his concession speech, Howard said it was "very likely" that McKew had defeated him,[10] though he and McKew both agreed the margin was very tight.[11] The Australian Broadcasting Corporation listed Bennelong as a Labor gain on election night, and ABC election analyst Antony Green said there was "no doubt" McKew had won.[12] McKew did not claim victory until a week after the election;[13] a few days earlier, Rudd named her as a parliamentary secretary (junior minister) to be appointed on 3 December.[14]
Fran Bailey lost to her Labor opponent in McEwen by 6[15] votes, the second-closest seat result since federation (Ballarat by 1 vote in 1919). The Liberal Party have disputed the result,[16] and will likely be counted a third time, however the electoral commission says it is unlikely the result will change.[17] Four other ministers have been defeated — Mal Brough, De-Anne Kelly, Gary Nairn and Teresa Gambaro.
Two independents were re-elected to the House of Representatives. Minor parties failed to gain any seats.
Senate results
Labor and the coalition are expected to win 18 seats each in the Senate. The Greens are expected to win three seats, with independent Nick Xenophon being elected on primary votes alone. This would bring the 76-member Senate total to 37 coalition, 32 Labor, 5 Green, 1 Family First, and 1 independent. This means that when the new Senate meets after 1 July 2008, the balance of power would be shared between Xenophon, Family First's Steve Fielding and the five Greens, as predicted by some in the media.[18]
Projected senate results by State/Territory:[5]
- NSW: 3 ALP, 3 Coalition
- Vic: 3 ALP, 3 Coalition
- Qld: 3 ALP, 3 Coalition
- WA: 2 ALP, 3 Coalition, 1 Greens
- SA: 2 ALP, 2 Coalition, 1 Greens, 1 Independent
- Tas: 3 ALP, 2 Coalition, 1 Greens
- ACT: 1 ALP, 1 Coalition
- NT: 1 ALP, 1 Coalition
On these predictions, the Greens would gain one (losing Kerry Nettle in NSW but gaining Sarah Hanson-Young in SA and Scott Ludlam in WA), a new Independent would be elected (Xenophon), and Labor would gain four seats. The Coalition would lose two, and the Democrats would lose all four of their seats.
Post-election
The Labor caucus met on Thursday 29 November 2007 to confirm the First Rudd Ministry, which was sworn in on 3 December.[19] In a departure from Labor tradition, the ministry was selected by Kevin Rudd as the Prime Minister, rather than by Caucus.[20]
Following his loss at the election, Howard announced that he would retire immediately, and the Liberal Party began the process of nominating a new leader. Peter Costello, who was originally selected by Howard to replace him in the event of his retirement, has stated that he would not run for Liberal leadership.[21] The previous Defence Minister Brendan Nelson and former Environmental Minister Malcolm Turnbull both contested the Liberal leadership.[22] Former Health Minister Tony Abbott withdrew from the leadership contesting on Wednesday 28 November after initally indicating he would stand.[23] Former Education Minister Julie Bishop contested the deputy leadership position, and has also defended the outgoing Coalition government's WorkChoices legislation.[24] Other contenders for the deputy leadership were Andrew Robb and Christopher Pyne.
Brendan Nelson was elected leader 45 votes to 42, and Julie Bishop was elected deputy leader in a Liberal party room meeting on Thursday 29 November 2007. [25] Newspoll taken after the Liberal leadership change revealed a Preferred Prime Minister rating of Rudd 61 percent to Nelson 14 percent, with Turnbull twice as popular as Nelson.[26]
Post-election, it was revealed that pre-election campaign billboard ads featuring a picture of John Howard stating "Working families in Australia have never been better off" which looked like Liberal Party advertisements were actually paid for by the Labor Party.[27][28]
Seats changing hands
The following table indicates seats that changed hands at this election.[29][30][31]
Key dates
- Prorogation of Parliament: 12 noon, 15 October[32]
- Dissolution of House of Representatives: 12 noon, 17 October[33]
- Issue of electoral writs: 17 October
- Close of rolls (if not currently on roll): 8 p.m., 17 October[34]
- Close of rolls (if currently on roll and updating details): 8 p.m., 23 October
- Close of nominations: 12 noon, 1 November
- Declaration of nominations: 12 noon, 2 November
- Polling Day: 24 November[35][36]
- Territory senators begin their terms: 24 November 2007
- Return of writs: On or before 25 January 2008[37]
- First meeting of the 42nd Parliament: On or before 24 February 2008[38]
- New state senators begin their terms: 1 July 2008
Under the provisions of the Constitution, the current House of Representatives may continue for a maximum of three years from the first meeting of the House after the previous federal election. The first meeting of the 41st Parliament after the 2004 election was on 16 November 2004, hence the parliament would have expired on 15 November 2007 had it not been dissolved earlier. There must be a minimum of 33 days and a maximum of 68 days between the dissolution of the House of Representatives and the day of the election.[39] Prime Minister Howard opted for a 39-day campaign.
The Prime Minister of the day chooses the election date and requests the Governor-General to dissolve the House and issue the writs for the election. On 14 October, John Howard gained the agreement of the Governor-General, Major-General Michael Jeffery, to dissolve the House of Representatives and hold a general election for the House and half the Senate on 24 November 2007.[40]
During the last term of parliament before the 2007 election, the deadline for new voter enrollment was brought forward from 7 working days after the issue of the writ to the same day. When the election was announced, the writ was not issued the next day, but on the following Wednesday. This kept the roll open for three days, during which 77,000 enrolment additions were processed.[41]
Election campaign
Week 1
John Howard announced the election at a press conference in Canberra on Sunday 14 October, after meeting the Governor-General at Government House. His theme concentrated on leadership, stating that the nation "does not need new leadership, it does not need old leadership. It needs the right leadership".[42] He also stated that his government would strive to achieve full employment, something he argued was less likely to eventuate under Kevin Rudd.[43] In his response, Rudd also concentrated on leadership, outlining his case for "new leadership”. He argued that the government had 'lost touch' with the electorate, and that his party was best suited to deal with challenges that lie ahead.
Polls during the week varied in terms of the scale of Labor's lead. Galaxy showed a Labor 53-47% Coalition 2PP result, with a 2% gap on primaries,[44] while ACNielsen saw a 2% swing to the coalition, reducing Labor's lead to 54-46. Rudd dropped 5% as preferred Prime Minister. However, a Newspoll sampling 1700 voters taken over the weekend prior to the leaders' debate saw a swing to Labor, increasing their 2PP lead to 58%, a rise of 2%. Labor's primary vote was up 3%, to 51%, with the Liberals down by 2%, to 34%. Rudd extended his lead by 2%, to 50%, with Howard down by 2%, to 37%.[45]
On the first full day of the campaign, Howard and Costello announced a 'major restructuring of the income tax system' with tax cuts worth $35 billion over three years and a tax cut "goal" for the next five years.[46] A few days later, Rudd released his alternative policy which supported the reform measures, however offered education and health tax rebates instead of immediate cuts to the top rate as proposed by the Liberal Party, instead favouring a slower progression for the top rate.[47]
The Liberals slogan, "go for growth" was launched after announcing the largest tax cut in Australian history.[48][49] Media and political commentators questioned the suitability of the slogan in the context of rising interest rates.[50]
During the latter part of the week attention was drawn to the question of union influence over the ALP after the launch of the Liberal party's first campaign ads. Labor responded with commercials attacking the Liberal's campaign as 'smears'. This was disputed by John Howard. One of the Liberal Party election commercials had to be corrected after it falsely accused Wayne Swan and Craig Emerson of previously being union officials.[51]
Leaders' debate
- See The Great Debate 2007 with the Worm in full.
A debate between the Leader of the Opposition and the Prime Minister, under the moderation of the National Press Club, was shown live on ABC TV, the Nine Network, and Sky News Australia at 7.30pm on 21 October. 2.4 million Australians watched the event, with Nine averaging 1.42 million, the ABC averaging 907,000, and Sky News averaging 62,000. Nine's program was only the third most watched show of the night after National Bingo Night on Seven (1.56 million) and a repeat episode of Kath and Kim, also on Seven (1.48 million.) The last election debate in 2004 pulled in 1.77 million on Nine and the ABC, while in 2001, average audiences on Nine, Seven and the ABC totalled 2.44 million.[52][53]
David Speers, Sky News's political editor, moderated the debate which was held in the Great Hall of Parliament House. The debate audience was 400, with the Coalition and Labor each selecting 200. Nine had a separate group of 80 purportedly 'swinging' voters (chosen by McNair Research) in its studio to control 'the Worm'. Steps were taken to ensure equal numbers so as not to taint the Worm. At one point, Peter Costello was reprimanded for interjecting.[54]
The Nine Network, which broadcast the debate as an extended edition of 60 Minutes, attracted controversy for using the Worm in its broadcast despite prior objections from the Liberal Party and action from the National Press Club to cease its video feed. As a result, the Nine Network's feed was cut part of the way into the broadcast, which it replaced with Sky News's coverage.[55] The Nine television network's live audience, via the Worm's average, scored the debate 65 to 29 in Rudd's favour,[56] with 6 per cent remaining undecided. Both sides, however, claimed victory.[57]
Kevin Rudd used part of the debate to argue that the Liberal Party was being influenced by the H. R. Nicholls Society to make further reforms to industrial relations, citing Nick Minchin's attendance to last year's H. R. Nicholls Society conference, where he told the audience that the coalition "knew its reform to WorkChoices were not popular but the process of change must continue",[58] and that "there is still a long way to go... awards, the IR commission, all the rest of it..."[59] Countering the Liberal Party message that 70 per cent of Labor's front bench is made up of former union officials, Rudd stated that 70 per cent of Liberal Party ministers were either lawyers or former Liberal Party staffers.[60]
Week 2
Inflation figures were released on Tuesday, showing stronger than expected underlying inflation of 3 per cent, a key indicator for the Reserve Bank.[61] In arguing that there was no case for an increase in interest rates, Treasurer Peter Costello described underlying inflation as one of several "technical measures", and that the overall annual headline CPI increase of 1.9 per cent showed that the economy was running smoothly.[62] However, some economists criticised this outlook for glossing over the underlying inflation figures.[63]
Controversy arose over the Coalition's climate change policy, with The Financial Review citing "government sources" who claimed Turnbull told Cabinet six weeks ago it should sign the Kyoto Protocol. Neither Howard nor Turnbull denied the story. The story said that "internal critics" are claiming Turnbull is "selfishly positioning himself for a Coalition defeat" and a "possible post-poll leadership battle with Treasurer Peter Costello". The story led to claims of major splits in Cabinet.[64]
Labor also suffered from mixed messages. Kevin Rudd was compelled to clarify Labor policy on climate change after an interview in which Peter Garrett suggested Labor would sign up to the post-Kyoto agreement at 2012 even if carbon-emitting developing countries did not. Rudd's comments, which he described as having "always been [Labor's] position", saw Labor's policy move closer to Liberal policy, insofar as Labor would ratify the agreement only after persuading all major carbon emitters, developing and developed, to ratify.[65][66][67] Rudd also committed Labor to a target of a 20 per cent reduction in emissions by 2020, a 5 per cent increase on the Liberal target, assisted by the use of renewable energy, but without the use of clean coal, arguing that it would ultimately be a benefit, not a detriment to the economy.
Week 3
Debate on climate change policy continued, with John Howard stating the Coalition would not match the Labor's promise of 20 per cent renewable energy target. Howard claimed Labor's policy "imposes too many additional costs to industry". Peter Garrett replied that lack of government action has cost jobs.[68] It was also reported that a recommendation by Howard's Environment Minister in 2005 for higher renewable energy targets, on the basis that 15 per cent was insufficient, was rejected at the time. Howard declined to confirm or deny this.[69]
The Coalition announced a promise to open 50 new emergency medical centres around Australia if re-elected. Adding to the campaign trend of both major parties criticising their opponent for plagiarism and "me-tooism", Labor responded that the government had copied its policy.[70]
Peter Garrett drew criticism from the Coalition when radio announcer Steve Price, revealed Garrett said, in conversation with a third party, "once we get in we'll just change it all" in reference to copying Coalition policies. Garrett acknowledged making the comment during a "short, jocular and casual" conversation. The third party to the conversation, Richard Wilkins, supported Garrett's view, saying that it was a "light-hearted throwaway line".[71]
Tim Costello, director of World Vision Australia and Peter Costello's brother, criticised Australia's overseas aid ranking at 19th of 22 OECD countries and government unwillingness to match Labor's commitment of overseas aid of 0.5 per cent of national GDP.[72] Howard said his party planned to lift the rate to 3.5 per cent, despite the Coalition's policy of 0.35 per cent.[73]
Commentators pronounced Peter Costello and Wayne Swan's debate on October 30 as ending in a draw. Costello focused mainly on the government's past record, advocating the need for Australia to build into the future, while Swan said Labor were interested in "investing in people".[74] Howard said he believed Costello "creamed" his opponent, while Rudd said Swan did a "fantastic job".[75]
Liberal Tony Abbott and Labor's Nicola Roxon publicly debated health at the National Press Club on ABC television. Abbott's character and ministerial capacity were questioned by Roxon for insulting dying asbestos campaigner Bernie Banton and arriving 35 minutes late to debate. At the end of the debate, Abbott's swearing at Ms Roxon drew attention when she claimed he "could have arrived on time" if he had "really wanted to", a comment which Abbott described as "bullshit".[76][77][78][79] Former Liberal campaign strategist Sue Cato stated "you just don't run late for things like that".[80] Abbott did apologise to Mr Banton but refused to apologise to Ms Roxon.[81]
Week 4
On November 10, the Australian Democrats held their campaign launch in Melbourne.[82]
In an election campaign first, the Reserve Bank of Australia adjusted the interest rate upwards by another 0.25 per cent, the sixth rise since the last election, to a 10-year high of 6.75 per cent.[83][84] The Coalition used the figures to argue that that only the current government had the proper experienced team to manage the economy in future, less prosperous years. [85] Costello argued that the inflationary reasons for the rate rise were "outside the control of a Government".[86] In response, Labor accused the Coalition of having "hauled up the white flag in the fight against inflation", saying that they had backflipped from their past statements that they could keep interest rates low.[87] Howard stated that he was sorry for the negative consequences for and burden on Australian borrowers,[88] but subsequently denied that this constituted an apology for the rate rise itself.[89]
On November 7, Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey and Labor's Julia Gillard debated industrial relations including WorkChoices at the National Press Club in Canberra. After an interest rate rise of 0.25 per cent earlier in the morning Hockey argued that Labor's policy to scrap Workchoices was the Australia's biggest threat to inflation.[90]
On November 8, Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull and opposition spokesman Peter Garrett debated environment issues at the National Press Club in Canberra. Garrett attacked the government's record on climate change to which Turnbull retaliated that Garrett's current claims betray his previous career as a political activist.[91]
Week 5
Both major party election campaign official launches took place in Brisbane, Queensland, with the Liberal Party on Monday November 12[92] and the Labor Party on Wednesday November 14.[93]
The coalition pledged a rebate for education costs, including private school fees, of all Australian children, totalling $9.4 billion. Primary school students will be eligible for $400 whilst secondary school students will be eligible for $800. Also offered were tax breaks worth $1.6 billion over four years in attempts to encourage people to save for first homes, $652 million for child care, and $158 million to support carers.[94]
The Labor Party committed to a quarter of the $9.4 billion spending in an attempt to keep inflation down, accusing the Howard government of being "irresponsible". Rudd committed Labor to an additional 65,000 apprenticeships, all schools to be migrated to new high speed broadband, and all year 9-12 students to have access to their own computer, in addition to previous education reimbursement funding announcements. Also announced were a doubling of the number of undergraduate and postgraduate scholarships available at a tertiary level, as well as re-iterating the party's view on climate change and WorkChoices.[95]
The Labor Party released footage on Thursday November 15 to Lateline, showing amateur civilian footage of Tony Abbott addressing a room of people, stating "I accept that certain protections, in inverted commas, are not what they were" in reference to the contentious WorkChoices legislation. In reference to award structures, Abbott went on to say "I accept that that has largely gone. I accept that." Abbott stands by the comments that WorkChoices means "certain protections" are not what they used to be,[96] but at the same time denied ever conceding workers had lost protections,[97] and denounced the video released by Labor as a "cut-and-paste job".[98]
A report by the National Audit Office found that the coalition had been interfering in the $328 million regional grants program, with a bias toward their marginal seats, where projects under the Regional Partnerships Program were apparently approved without proper assessment, or none at all, and that there was a surge of approvals prior to the 2004 election.[99][100]
Week 6
With Newspoll revealing Labor's 2PP vote down one to 54 per cent, former Liberal Party campaign director Lynton Crosby said that the coalition was "closing in on Labor" in the final week and could "still win a tight election" on a campaign of defending marginal seats, declaring a win still possible on 48.5 per cent of the 2PP vote.[101]
Election day was Saturday 24 November.
On November 20th, Prime Minister John Howard was forced to defend the federal government's substantial advertising spending in the months prior to the campaign, paid for with public money. Such advertising, covering topics including the controversial "Workchoices", cost some $360 million in less than 18 months.[102] An article in the November 20 issue of the Herald Sun suggested that spending could have been even greater, up to $500 million, though this took a broader view of what was included in that sum.
Mr Howard also came under fire for hiding documents written by his department about possible further amendments to the government's WorkChoices legislation.[103] The Seven Network had attempted to obtain the documents under Freedom of Information but were denied access. A key issue in the 2007 election is the possibility of WorkChoices being expanded, a possibility that the Coalition denied.[103] Nationals Senator Barnaby Joyce stated that the possibility of him crossing the floor to support Labor's amendments to WorkChoices remained open, stating he would judge all legislation on its merits, before he was lambasted by Nationals leader Mark Vaile.[104]
Government frontbencher Andrew Robb announced that up to 13 Labor candidates standing in the election may be ineligible for nomination, citing a clause of the Constitution which states that parliamentarians are not permitted to hold an "office of profit under the crown". Robb claimed that a "search of public records" indicated that the 13 candidates may have still been employed by government agencies, boards or offices, and that the Liberal Party may consider legal challenges to their election. Labor Senator Penny Wong dismissed the claims, asserting that all Labor's candidates were eligible to stand, and that the Liberals had obtained the information from outdated websites.[105]
Lindsay pamphlet scandal
On 21 November, three days before the election, five people were caught in the electorate of Lindsay distributing fake pamphlets purporting to be from a nonexistent Islamic group, thanking the Labor Party for supporting the Bali bombers and encouraging people to vote for Labor. They included a member of the Liberals' state executive, Jeff Egan; Gary Clark, husband of outgoing MP Jackie Kelly; and Greg Chijoff, the husband of Lindsay candidate Karen Chijoff.[106] Kelly tried to dismiss the incident as a "Chaser-style prank"[107] but John Howard condemned the statement.[108] Egan and Greg Chijoff were immediately expelled from the Liberal Party a day before John Howard's address to the Australian Press Club;[109] nevertheless, Egan denies any wrongdoing.[108]
Television coverage
Election night was covered extensively, mostly commercial-free, by three of the Australian free-to-air networks: ABC Television, the Nine Network and the Seven Network. Network Ten and SBS included brief updates and news bulletins through the night, but not to the other networks' extent. Sky News offered coverage on Pay TV.[110]
- Seven went with a new election coverage team for 2007, led by Sunrise hosts David Koch and Melissa Doyle. Their coverage was commercial-free until the result of the election was announced, and ran from 5.30 pm AEDT (with a break between 6pm to 6.30pm AEDT for Seven News), until 11.30pm AEDT. Special guests included current and former Liberal politicians Joe Hockey, Jackie Kelly, Andrew Robb and former Victorian Premier Jeff Kennett. Joining them was current and former Labor politicians Tanya Plibersek, Mark Arbib and former Queensland Premier Peter Beattie. The National Party's Barnaby Joyce also joined them on the panel. Special Reporters included Anna Coren, Mark Riley and Chris Bath. The broadcast was watched by 967,000 viewers in the mainland capitals, with 661,000 viewers watching the first half-hour prior to the 6pm news.
- Nine's coverage began at 5.30 pm AEDT (originally Nine said that it would start at 6.30pm AEDT after the news, however due to competition from Seven's election coverage which started at 5.30pm AEDT, Nine chose to move its coverage forward one hour), continuing through the evening until 11.30pm AEDT. Its coverage was commercial-free until 8.30 pm AEDT.[111] It was hosted by journalist Ray Martin and Nine's political editor Laurie Oakes. Special guests included Labor politicians Senator Robert Ray and Shadow Treasurer Wayne Swan, Liberals Michael Kroger and Communications minister Helen Coonan and John Howard's biographer Peter Van Onselen with light hearted views from the tally room coming from Chaser stuntman Charles Firth. Special reporters include Peter Overton, Tracy Grimshaw and Kellie Connolly. The broadcast was watched by 763,000 and came third among the free-to-air networks doing full election count coverage.
- The ABC's coverage began at 6 pm AEDT and ran until 11.30pm AEDT, led by Kerry O'Brien, Tony Jones and Antony Green. Special guests included Senator Nick Minchin (finance minister), representing the Coalition, and Julia Gillard (deputy ALP leader) from the ALP. Special reporters included Michael Brissenden, and other journalists with the leaders in Sydney and Brisbane. The ABC provided live crosses to key electorates around Australia. The broadcast was watched by 1,112,000 viewers and was the most watched election coverage.
- Sky News' coverage was hosted by David Speers in Sydney with Helen Dalley at the tally room in Canberra. Guests included former Prime Minister Bob Hawke, former Labor Leader Kim Beazley, former Liberal Leader John Hewson, and current members in Parliament, including Brendan Nelson from the Liberal Party, Natasha Stott Despoja from the Democrats, and Stephen Conroy from the Labor Party. Coverage began at 2pm AEDT in the afternoon and ended at 1 o'clock AEDT the next morning.[112]
Author John Kennedy O'Connor was commissioned by ABC National Radio's Perspective programme to report on the international media coverage of the election prior to polling day. [113]
Issues
Roy Morgan polling in June 2007 revealed WorkChoices as the biggest reason behind the Labor vote, with a fear of union dominance and support for coalition economic management policy as the biggest reasons behind the coalition vote.[120] Attempts by the Liberal Party to have business groups fund advertisements to counter anti-WorkChoices advertisements suggested that industrial relations would be a key battleground at the 2007 election.[121] The share of voters concerned about industrial relations grew from 31 per cent to 53 per cent in the two years to June 2006, with around three fifths of voters backing Labor's ability to handle the issue over the Liberal Party.[122]
A Newspoll released in June 2006 identified health and Medicare as the most important issue for voters, with 83 per cent of respondents rating it "very important". Other key issues included education (79 per cent), the economy (67 per cent), the environment (60 per cent) and national security (60 per cent). Taxation and interest rates, key issues in previous campaigns, were rated very important by 54 per cent and 51 per cent respectively. Immigration, a key issue in 2001, scored 43 per cent. The poll showed that voters considered Labor better-placed to handle health and education, albeit by a small margin, but gave the government strong backing on the economy and national security.[122]
Climate change and water management were prominant environmental issues during the campaign. Kevin Rudd committed Labor to introducing a greenhouse gas emission reduction target of 60% by 2050, ratifying the Kyoto protocol and introducing a mandatory renewable energy target (MRET) of 20% by 2020. In contrast, the Howard government stuck to their position of not ratifying the Kyoto protocol, setting "voluntary aspirational emission reduction targets" and introducing a carbon emissions trading scheme by 2012.[123]
Labor's pledge to spearhead construction of a $4.7 billion fibre-to-the-node broadband network suggested that infrastructure would also figure prominently on the campaign trail.[124]
On 7 June in a speech promoting the government's handling of the economy, Treasurer Peter Costello recalled the learner driver slogan of the 2004 election: "This [the economy] is like a highly engineered racing car and I tell you what, I wouldn't be putting an L-plate driver in the cockpit at the moment".[125] August 2007 saw, for the first time during an election campaign, a 0.25 per cent interest rate rise to 6.5 per cent by the Reserve Bank, the sixth rise since the last election in 2004. Labor used the news to argue that the Coalition could not be trusted to keep interest rates low, while Costello argued that interest rates would be higher under Labor.[126] Inflation figures released on 24 October indicated underlying inflation was higher than expected, which resulted in seven of eight financial companies believing there will be an interest rate rise when the reserve bank met in the middle of November, the first during an election campaign.[127]
Rudd advocated four-year fixed terms for federal parliaments if elected. Howard supported four-year terms but opposed fixed election dates. Any change would require approval by referendum.[128] Another referendum was suggested by John Howard on the eve of the election campaign, in order to include a statement of reconciliation to be included in the preamble of the constitution.[129]
Polling
Roy Morgan, Newspoll, ACNeilsen and Galaxy timegraph polling showed Labor leading the coalition in overall opinion polling from mid-2006 onward. Labor also led on as several key questions. Labor consolidated its lead after Rudd assumed the Labor leadership from Kim Beazley, at which point Rudd also assumed the lead on the question of preferred Prime Minister--an unusual feat for an Opposition leader. Even with Labor ahead in opinion polling, Howard led Beazley on this question by a wide margin.
According to Australian political analyst Adam Carr, the public turned against Howard largely because of WorkChoices. The new industrial relations program, Carr said, angered the "Howard battlers"--the traditional Labor voters who had supported Howard for most of the last 11 years--because they saw it as a direct attack on their livelihood.[130]
ACNielsen polling in March 2007 had Rudd's personal approval rating at 67 per cent, which made him the most popular opposition leader in the poll's 35-year history,[131] with Newspoll (News Limited) 2PP polling the highest in its history. The largest 2PP election result for the ALP in its history was at the 1943 election on an estimate of 58.2 per cent.
A weighted collaboration of all polling since Rudd assumed the ALP leadership shows an average Labor 2PP figure of 57 per cent compared with the coalition's 43 per cent,[132] and Rudd's consistent outpolling of Howard as preferred Prime Minister, something not achieved under previous leaders Mark Latham, Kim Beazley or Simon Crean.
By the time the writs were issued, the Coalition was well behind Labor in opinion polling, which showed Labor winning government "in a canter," as Antony Green put it. According to Green, this was a nearly exact reversal of the run-up to the 1996 election. The Coalition was running far ahead of Labor in opinion polling for much of 1995 and 1996, and Howard regularly trounced Paul Keating on the question of preferred Prime Minister. [133]
Possums Pollytics, an anonymous weblog, stated that due to the uneven nature of the swings, where safe Liberal seats were swinging up to 14.6 per cent with safe Labor seats swinging around only 4.1 per cent, the Labor party stood to potentially end up with a maximum of 106 of the 150 lower house seats.[134]
Polling consistently showed that the economy and national security are the Coalition's strong areas. In August 2007 an Ipsos poll showed 39 per cent of voters thought Labor was a better economic manager, compared to 36 per cent for the coalition, with 25 per cent undecided.[135]
The morning of the election announcement, a special Sun-Herald Taverner survey of 979 people across New South Wales and Victoria had been released, indicating a Labor 2PP of 59 per cent, with the 18-29 year old category voting at 72 per cent.[136] The fortnightly Newspoll was released the day after the election was called, showing the 2PP remaining steady at Labor 56-44 Liberal. Howard increased his Preferred PM rating up one per cent to 39 per cent, while Rudd increased his rating up one per cent to 48 per cent. On the day after the election was called, Centrebet had odds of 1.47 on Labor, with 2.70 on the coalition.[137] Half way through the campaign, with no overall change in the polls, saw Centrebet odds for Labor shorten to 1.29, with the Liberals on 3.60.[138] Centrebet odds two days out from the election were at 1.22 for Labor, with 4.35 for the coalition.
Newspoll a week out from the election of 3,600 voters in 18 of the coalition's most marginal seats revealed an ALP 54-46 coalition 2PP, a swing to Labor of 6-9 per cent. A uniform swing would see 18-25 seats fall to Labor, The Australian said.[139]
Former Labor number-cruncher Graham Richardson, who news.com.au (News Limited) claims to have correctly picked the winner of every election for the past three decades, tipped Kevin Rudd and Labor to win with a 6-7 per cent two party preferred, 20 seat swing.[140]
Peter Day, a journalist (ex-The Australian), stated two days before the election that, if the coalition were re-elected, it would be "the biggest polling embarrassment in any developed country since Truman beat Dewey in 1948".[141]
The election-eve Newspoll and Galaxy poll reported the ALP on a 2PP of 52 per cent, Roy Morgan on 54.5, with ACNielsen on 57 per cent. Seven News reported that TAB had updated their odds for the election, with Labor having safe odds of $1.20 and the Coalition an outside chance on $4.60.
Sky News-Channel 7-Auspoll exit polls on election day of 2,787 voters in the 31 most marginal seats suggested a 53 per cent two-party preferred figure to Labor, 53 per cent to Labor in Bennelong, and 58 per cent to Labor in Eden-Monaro.[142] Key issue questions swung Labor's way.[143]
Candidates and Seats
See also
- Members of the Australian House of Representatives, 2007-2010
- Members of the Australian Senate, 2008-2011
- First Rudd Ministry
- Candidates of the Australian general election, 2007
- Mackerras federal election pendulum, 2006
- Australian electoral system
- List of political parties in Australia
- List of Australian federal electorates
References
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{{cite news}}: Check date values in:|date=(help)
External links
Official
- Parliament of Australia - Election Timetable
- Australian Electoral Commission
- Australian Senate 2007 ballot papers and preference flows
Media
Unofficial Sites
- AustralianPolitics.com: 2007 Federal Election
- The Poll Bludger - Federal Election 2007
- OzPolitics - Australian Federal Election 2007
- Adam Carr's Guide to the 2007 Federal Election
- Possums Pollytics
- Simon Jackman's 2007 Election Analysis
- Australia Votes 2007
- TrendLines Research's International Seat Projection Charts
| Federal elections | |
|---|---|
| Constitutional Convention | |
| Referendums | |
