Next Bangladeshi general election
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Early general elections are expected to be held in Bangladesh to elect members of the 13th Jatiya Sangsad following the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the formation of an interim government with Muhammad Yunus as its Chief Advisor.
Background
The 12th Sangsad was dissolved by President Mohammed Shahabuddin following the resignation of Sheikh Hasina.[1] In June 2024, student protests erupted throughout the country, demanding the reform of quotas in government jobs. The protests were met with brutal crackdown by law-enforcement agencies and paramilitary forces, resulting in the deaths of many students. By August, the protests intensified into large-scale civil unrest against the government which eventually culminated in Hasina's resignation on 5 August.
Following negotiations between student leaders and the Armed Forces, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was appointed as Chief Adviser to head an interim government with a view to leading the country to new elections.[2]
The Awami League won the January 2024 general elections and formed the government.[3] There was record low turnout, and it was a controversial election. The United States Department of State, in a statement, said that the election was not free and fair[4] and the UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office termed the election lacking the preconditions of democracy.[5] According to The Economist, through this election, Bangladesh effectively became a one-party state.[6]
The main opposition party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), demanded that the government hand over power to a neutral caretaker government before the January 2024 elections.[7] This was rejected by Hasina, who vowed that "Bangladesh will never allow an unelected government again".[8] Hasina's resistance to a caretaker government arose following the 2006–2008 crisis, during which a caretaker government assumed military control of the country and arrested a number of political leaders, including Hasina and Khaleda Zia. [9] Zia was sentenced to prison for five years on February 8, 2018, for her involvement in the Zia Orphanage corruption case.[10] The sentence was then modified to 10 years.[11] Zia’s successor as chair of the party, her son Tarique Rahman, was also found guilty of criminal conspiracy and multiple counts of murder for a grenade attack in 2004 that injured Hasina and killed 24 people.[12] He was sentenced to life in prison. As such, he was barred from running for office.[13] Zia was released by Shahabuddin following Hasina's resignation.[14]
Electoral system
The 350 members of the Jatiya Sangsad consist of 300 directly elected seats using first-past-the-post voting in single-member constituencies, and an additional 50 seats reserved for women. The reserved seats are elected proportionally by the elected members. Each parliament sits for a five-year term.[15]
Parties and alliances
Surveys and polls
Opinion polls
| Polling agency | Date published | Sample size | Margin of error | AL | JP(E) | BNP | IAB | Jamaat | Student supported–New Party | Others | Independents | "Can't say"/Undecided | None | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bangladesh Speaks | September 2024 | 5,115 (field) | ± 1.4% | 5% | 1% | 21% | 3% | 14% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 38% | 2% | 7% |
| 3,581 (online) | ± 1.67% | 10% | 0% | 10% | 1% | 25% | 35% | 1% | 3% | 11% | 3% | 10% |
| Polling agency | Date published | Sample size | Margin of error | AL | JP(E) | BNP | IAB | Jamaat | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Exit polls
| Polling agency | Date published | Sample size | Margin of error | AL | JP(E) | BNP | IAB | Jamaat | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polling agency | Date published | Sample size | Margin of error | AL | JP(E) | BNP | IAB | Jamaat | Others | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Results
| Alliance/ Party | Popular vote | Seats | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | ±pp | Contested | Won | +/− | ||||
| 14 Party | Awami League | ||||||||
| Jatiya Samajtantrik Dal | |||||||||
| Workers Party of Bangladesh | |||||||||
| Total | |||||||||
| BNP | |||||||||
| Bangladesh Nationalist Party | |||||||||
| Total | |||||||||
| Left Democratic Alliance | Communist Party of Bangladesh | ||||||||
| Socialist Party of Bangladesh | |||||||||
| United Communist League of Bangladesh | |||||||||
| Socialist Party of Bangladesh (Marxist) | |||||||||
| Total | |||||||||
| Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami | |||||||||
| Jatiya Party (Ershad) | |||||||||
| Islami Andolan Bangladesh | |||||||||
| Others | |||||||||
| IND | |||||||||
| Total | - | - | |||||||
See also
Notes
References
- ^ "Bangladesh Parliament dissolved, president's office says". Reuters. 2024-08-06. Retrieved 2024-08-09.
- ^ "Who is Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel laureate leader of Bangladesh's interim government?". CNN. 2024-08-09. Retrieved 2024-08-07.
- ^ "Sheikh Hasina wins fifth term in Bangladesh amid turnout controversy". Al Jazeera. 2024-01-04. Retrieved 2024-08-09.
- ^ "Bangladesh Election 'Not Free Or Fair': US". Barron's. Archived from the original on 8 January 2024. Retrieved 2024-01-09.
- ^ "UK Says Boycotted Bangladesh Poll Not 'Democratic'". www.barrons.com. Agence France-Presse. Archived from the original on 10 January 2024. Retrieved 2024-01-09.
- ^ "Bangladesh is now in effect a one-party state". The Economist. ISSN 0013-0613. Archived from the original on 9 January 2024. Retrieved 2024-01-09.
- ^ Kamruzzaman, Md. (January 17, 2023). "Bangladesh's main opposition party demands formation of caretaker government ahead of polls". Anadolu Agency. Retrieved 2023-04-20.
- ^ "Bangladesh will never allow an unelected government again, says Hasina". BDNews24. February 10, 2023. Retrieved 2023-04-20.
- ^ "Former Bangladesh Prime Minister Arrested". NPR. 16 July 2007.
- ^ "Minister: Khaleda Zia's release will be revoked if she participates in politics". Dhaka Tribune. June 11, 2023.
- ^ "Zia Orphanage Graft Case: Khaleda's jail term raised to 10 years". The Daily Star. October 31, 2018.
- ^ "Tarique Rahman acting chairman: BNP leader". The Daily Star. February 8, 2018.
- ^ "Adequate data found to try Jamaat for war crimes". Bangladesh Post. June 11, 2023.
- ^ "Who is Khaleda Zia, Sheikh Hasina's rival and former Bangladesh PM who was on 'deathbed' a few months ago". The Economic Times. 2024-08-06. Retrieved 2024-08-09.
- ^ "IPU Parline database: Bangladesh (Jatiya Sangsad), Electoral system". Inter-Parliamentary Union. Retrieved 2021-04-18.
