2015 Queensland state election

Next Queensland state election

On or before 20 June 2015
All 89 seats in the Legislative Assembly of Queensland 45 seats needed for a majority
Leader Campbell Newman Annastacia Palaszczuk Party Liberal National Labor Leader since 22 March 2011 (2011-03-22) 28 March 2012 (2012-03-28) Leader's seat Ashgrove Inala Last election 78 seats 7 seats Current seats 73 seats 9 seats Seats needed 0 36 TPP @ 2012 62.8% 37.2% TPP polling 54% 46% BP polling 41% 35%
Incumbent Premier Campbell Newman Liberal National

The next Queensland state election will elect all 89 members of the unicameral Legislative Assembly. This will occur no later than 20 June 2015 under current election rules, though the leaders of the two largest parties support in principle a change to fixed four-year terms.

The Liberal National Party, led by Premier Campbell Newman will seek its second term after defeating Labor at the 2012 election in the largest defeat of a sitting government in Queensland history. The LNP won 78 seats—the largest majority government in Queensland history—compared to seven for Labor, two for Katter's Australian Party, and two won by independents. Following Labor's defeat former Premier Anna Bligh resigned as Labor leader and was succeeded by Annastacia Palaszczuk. Months later, Ray Hopper left the LNP to lead Katter's Australian Party while two further LNP MPs became independents, resulting in a total of 75 LNP seats, seven Labor seats, three Katter seats and five independent seats. Two by-elections saw Labor defeat the LNP, reducing the LNP to 73 seats with Labor on 9 seats.

Voting method

Queensland uses optional preferential version of the instant-runoff system in single-member electorates. The election will be conducted by the Electoral Commission of Queensland, an independent body answerable to Parliament. In Queensland, a parliamentary term is a maximum of three years, measured from the day set for the return of the electoral writs. The previous state election was held on 24 March 2012.

Date

Section 80 of the Queensland Electoral Act 1992 states that an election must be held on a Saturday, and that the election campaign must run for a minimum of 26 or a maximum of 56 days following the issue of the writs including the day the writ drops and polling day. Five to seven days following the issue of the writs, the electoral roll is closed, which gives voters a final opportunity to enrol or to notify the Electoral Commission of Queensland of any changes in their place of residence.

The Constitution Act Amendment Act 1890 provides that the Legislative Assembly continues for no more than three years from the day set for the return of writs for the previous election, after which time the Legislative Assembly expires. The day set for the return of writs for the 2012 election was 23 April 2012. The Electoral Act requires the Governor to issue writs for a general election no more than four days after the Legislative Assembly is dissolved or expires. The last possible day for the next election is therefore a Saturday not more than 56 days beyond four days after the expiry of the Legislative Assembly on 23 April 2015, namely, 20 June 2015.

Last election

See also: Post-election pendulum for the Queensland state election, 2012

The last state election to be held was the 2012 Queensland State election where the Australian Labor Party led by Premier Anna Bligh attempted to win a second term as Premier in her own right and a third term overall and a sixth consecutive term in office. Opposing her was the Liberal National Party led by LNP leader Campbell Newman. The election was the second for Bligh who had succeeded Peter Beattie as Premier in 2007. Newman was the former Lord Mayor of Brisbane from 2004 to 2011, having resigned the position to run for Premier.

As Newman did not have a seat in state parliament, he chose to contest preselection in the seat of Ashgrove for the next election, and lead the party from outside of parliament until the election. Jeff Seeney served as Opposition Leader in the parliament.

The Labor Party went into the election with a modest margin with 51 seats, while the Liberal National Party had 32 seats. Queensland voted out the Labor Party in a historic landslide defeat, the LNP winning 78 seats to just seven for Labor, with Newman winning of Ashgrove from former Environment Minister Kate Jones.

Aidan McLindon, the parliamentary leader of the Katter's Australia Party, lost his seat of Beaudesert, but the KAP won two seats. Only two of the independent members were re-elected.

Three by-elections have occurred since the last state election. Labor candidate Yvette D'Ath won the 2014 Redcliffe by-election in February, and Labor candidate Anthony Lynham won the 2014 Stafford by-election in July.

Retiring MPs

Members who have chosen not to renominate are as follows:

Labor

• Desley Scott (Woodridge) – announced 11 March 2014

LNP

• Peter Dowling (Redlands) – deselected 25 October 2014
• David Gibson (Gympie) – announced 2 May 2014
• Howard Hobbs (Warrego) – announced 5 September 2014
• Vaughan Johnson (Gregory) – announced 2 October 2014
• Ted Malone (Mirani) - announced 26 September 2014
• Rosemary Menkens (Burdekin) – announced 19 September 2014

Polling

Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian is conducted via random telephone number selection in city and country areas. Sampling sizes usually consist of around 1100–1200 electors. The declared margin of error is ±3 percentage points.

Legislative Assembly polling

	Primary vote					TPP vote
	LNP	ALP	GRN	KAP+	OTH	LNP	ALP
October 2014	38.5%	38%	10%	2%	11.5%	49.5%	51.5%
Jul–Sep 2014	39%	32%	10%	1%	18%	54%	46%
Apr–Jun 2014	32%	34%	8%	2%	24%	49%	51%
Jan–Mar 2014	40%	36%	8%	1%	15%	52%	48%
Oct–Dec 2013	40%	32%	8%	2%	18%	55%	45%
Apr–Jun 2013	44%	29%	10%	3%	14%	59%	41%
Jan–Mar 2013	49%	27%	6%	3%	15%	62%	38%
Oct–Dec 2012	42%	31%	8%	4%	15%	56%	44%
Jul–Sep 2012	48%	30%	9%	1%	12%	60%	40%
2012 election	49.7%	26.7%	7.5%	11.5%	4.6%	62.8%	37.2%
20–22 Mar 2012	50%	28%	6%	*	16%	60.8%	39.2%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. *KAP part of others prior to election. +KAP not offered as a choice on Newspoll, individuals must nominate them, as such KAP is included as "Others".

Better Premier and satisfaction polling^

	Better Premier			Newman		Palaszczuk
	Newman	Palaszczuk		Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Satisfied	Dissatisfied
October 2014	47.5%	52.5%		-	-	-	-
Jul–Sep 2014	41%	35%		35%	54%	36%	36%
Apr–Jun 2014	39%	35%		33%	57%	35%	37%
Jan–Mar 2014	41%	35%		36%	54%	38%	30%
Oct–Dec 2013	45%	32%		40%	48%	36%	31%
Apr–Jun 2013	49%	26%		41%	46%	34%	33%
Jan–Mar 2013	53%	21%		43%	45%	33%	33%
Oct–Dec 2012	45%	29%		38%	48%	34%	30%
Jul–Sep 2012	55%	21%		47%	38%	29%	30%
2012 election	–	–		–	–	–	–
20–22 Mar 2012	51%			47%	40%
Polling conducted by Newspoll and published in The Australian. ^Remainder were "uncommitted" to either leader.

See also

• Politics of Queensland