2020 United States Senate election in Illinois

The 2020 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Illinois, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections and the Illinois Fair Tax. Incumbent Democratic Senator Dick Durbin, who had been Senate Minority Whip since 2015, won reelection to a fifth term in office, defeating Republican nominee Mark Curran.

2020 United States Senate election in Illinois

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Turnout72.14%
 
Nominee Dick Durbin Mark Curran
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 3,278,930 2,319,870
Percentage 54.93% 38.87%

Durbin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Curran:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      No data

U.S. senator before election

Dick Durbin
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Dick Durbin
Democratic

Durbin decisively won re-election with 54.9% of the vote. Key to Durbin's landslide victory was the heavily populated and very Democratic Cook County home of Chicago, which he won by around 560,000 votes. Durbin also did well in the suburban, often called collar counties of Chicago, winning all of them except McHenry County. Durbin did well in Champaign County, home of the University of Illinois, and St. Clair County, where his birth home of East St. Louis is located. Nevertheless, Curran did well in most rural areas of the state, including winning rural Alexander County where a Republican had not won since 1972. Durbin became the first senator from Illinois to be elected five consecutive times since senators began being elected by popular vote in 1913.[1]

Background

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The primaries and general elections coincide with those for federal (president and House) and those for state offices.

For the primaries, turnout was 28.36% with 2,279,439 votes cast.[2][3]

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Withdrawn

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Results

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Democratic primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Dick Durbin (incumbent) 1,446,118 100.00%
Total votes 1,446,118 100.00%

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Nominee

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Eliminated in primary

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Withdrew

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Declined

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Endorsements

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Mark Curran

U.S. representatives

U.S. Lieutenant Governors

U.S. Attorneys General

  • Jim Ryan, former Attorney General of Illinois

Illinois legislators

Newspapers

Organizations

Individuals

[30]

Results

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Results by county
Curran
  •   Curran—60–70%
  •   Curran—50–60%
  •   Curran—40–50%
  •   Curran—30–40%
  •   Curran—<30%
Hubbard
  •   Hubbard—40–50%
  •   Hubbard—30–40%
  •   Hubbard—<30
Tarter
  •   Tarter—30–40%
  •   Tarter—<30
Republican primary results[3]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mark Curran 205,747 41.55%
Republican Peggy Hubbard 113,189 22.86%
Republican Robert Marshall 75,561 15.26%
Republican Tom Tarter 73,009 14.74%
Republican Casey Chlebek 27,655 5.58%
Republican Richard Mayers (write-in) 7 0.00%
Total votes 495,168 100.00%

Other candidates

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A legal ruling, taking note of the COVID-19 pandemic in Illinois, allowed the Libertarian and Green Parties to have their selected candidate on the ballot without the normal signature requirements, as they each ran a candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016.[31]

Constitution Party

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Removed from Ballot

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  • Chad Koppie, perennial candidate and former member of the Kane County Regional Board Of School Trustees.[27][32]

Green Party

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Nominee

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  • David F. Black, Green Party nominee for Illinois Attorney General in 2010[33]

Independent American Party

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Withdrawn

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Libertarian Party

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Nominee

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Willie Wilson Party

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Declared

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Independents

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Declared

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  • Kevin Keely, substitute teacher and community activist (as a write-in candidate)[42][43]
  • Albert A. Schaal (as a write-in candidate)[44]
  • Lowell Martin Seida, perennial candidate (as a write-in candidate)[45]

Withdrawn

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  • Patrick Feges[46][32]
  • Julie Rushing[46]
  • Connor Vlakancic, affiliated with the Republican Party (switched from Republican candidacy)[27][32]

General election

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[47] Safe D October 29, 2020
Inside Elections[48] Safe D October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[49] Safe D November 2, 2020
Daily Kos[50] Safe D October 30, 2020
Politico[51] Safe D November 2, 2020
RCP[52] Safe D October 23, 2020
DDHQ[53] Safe D November 3, 2020
538[54] Safe D November 2, 2020
Economist[55] Safe D November 2, 2020

Endorsements

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Mark Curran (R)

Newspapers

Organizations

Willie Wilson (WW)

Alderman

Organizations

  • Chicago Police Union[81]

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Dick
Durbin (D)
Mark
Curran (R)
Willie
Wilson (I)
Other Undecided
Research Co.[82] October 31 – November 1, 2020 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 52% 30% 4%[b] 14%
Victory Research[83] October 26 – November 1, 2020 1,208 (LV) ± 2.8% 51% 26% 15% 5%[c] 4%
Hypothetical polling

with Dick Durbin, generic Republican and Willie Wilson

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Dick
Durbin (D)
Generic Republican (R) Willie
Wilson (I)
Undecided
Ogden & Fry/Citizens for Willie Wilson[84][A] September 4, 2019 449 (LV) ± 4.31% 44% 34% 4% 18%

with Dick Durbin and Willie Wilson

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Dick
Durbin (D)
Willie
Wilson (I)
Undecided
Ogden & Fry/Citizens for Willie Wilson[84][A] September 4, 2019 420 (LV) ± 4.31% 44% 25% 31%

Results

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Durbin also kept his landslide winning streak by winning with at least a ten-point margin. Durbin was sworn in on January 3, 2021, for his fifth term, which expires on January 3, 2027.

United States Senate election in Illinois, 2020[85]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Dick Durbin (incumbent) 3,278,930 54.93% +1.38%
Republican Mark Curran 2,319,870 38.87% −3.82%
Willie Wilson Party Willie Wilson 237,699 3.98% N/A
Libertarian Danny Malouf 75,673 1.27% −2.49%
Green David Black 56,711 0.95% N/A
Write-in 18 0.00% N/A
Total votes 5,968,901 100.0%
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Durbin won 12 of the 18 congressional districts, with the remaining 6 going to Curran. Curran won one district held by a Democrat.[86]

District Durbin Curran Representative
1st 64% 22% Bobby Rush
2nd 68% 18% Robin Kelly
3rd 55% 37% Dan Lipinski
Marie Newman
4th 78% 14% Chuy García
5th 69% 25% Mike Quigley
6th 51% 44% Sean Casten
7th 75% 12% Danny Davis
8th 58% 37% Raja Krishnamoorthi
9th 68% 27% Jan Schakowsky
10th 60% 36% Brad Schneider
11th 59% 35% Bill Foster
12th 44% 53% Mike Bost
13th 47.7% 48.3% Rodney Davis
14th 47% 48% Lauren Underwood
15th 29% 68% Mary Miller
16th 41% 55% Adam Kinzinger
17th 49% 48% Cheri Bustos
18th 37% 60% Darin LaHood

Notes

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  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  3. ^ Malouf (L) with 3%; Black (G) with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Willie Wilson's campaign

References

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  1. ^ "Illinois U.S. Senate Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved October 3, 2021.
  2. ^ "Voter Turnout". www.elections.il.gov. Illinois State Board of Elections. Archived from the original on May 30, 2021. Retrieved March 22, 2020.
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  4. ^ Greenwood, Max (January 3, 2019). "Dick Durbin: I'm running for reelection in 2020". The Hill. Retrieved July 25, 2019.
  5. ^ @chooselove2020 (December 3, 2019). "While our campaign to unseat Dick Durbin has come to an end, the work of our grassroots movement of economic, political, racial & environmental justice is never over. I will doing everything I can to help Bernie win & my fellow down ballot progressives in IL. Not me, us!" (Tweet). Retrieved December 18, 2019 – via Twitter.
  6. ^ Pearson, Rick (July 16, 2019). "With just $9.72 in the bank, Democratic lawmaker from Naperville officially ends long-shot primary challenge to Sen. Dick Durbin". Chicago Tribune. Retrieved July 25, 2019.
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  11. ^ "MARCH 2020 PRIMARY ELECTION ENDORSED CANDIDATES" (PDF). Chicago Federation of Labor. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 13, 2020. Retrieved April 13, 2020.
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  23. ^ "LIST OF PERSONS WHO FILED A DECLARATION OF INTENT TO BE A WRITE-IN CANDIDATE" (PDF). Kane County Clerk. January 16, 2020. Retrieved May 15, 2020.
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  83. ^ Victory Research
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  86. ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 18, 2024.
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Official campaign websites