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World food crises (2022–2023)

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2022 saw a rapid increase in food prices and shortages of food supply around the world. The crises were created by compounding multiple geopolitical, economic and natural causes, such as extreme heat, flooding and drought caused by climate change. The crises follow food security and economic crises during the COVID 19 pandemic.

Following the outbreak of the 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine, the Food and Agriculture Organization, as well as other observers of the food commodities markets, warned of a collapse in food supply and increase in prices.[1][2][3][4][5] Much of the concern is related to supply shortages of key commodity crops, such as wheat, corn and oil seeds, and how shortages could create price increases.[6] Additionally, fuel and associated fertilizer price increases (because of Russia's significant role in gas and oil and both countries' importance in European fertilizer markets), were causing additional shortfalls and price increases.[7]

Even before the War in Ukraine, food prices were already at record highs: as of February 2022, year-over-year food prices were up 20% according to the Food and Agriculture Organization.[8] The war further increased year-over-year prices to 40% in March.[9] The compounding issues created by COVID-19, the War and climate-related crop failures are expected to reverse global trends in reducing hunger and malnutrition.[10] Some regions, such as East Africa and Madagascar, were already experiencing drought and famine due to agricultural system failures and climate changes, and the price increases are expected to make the situation worse.[11][9] Even Global North countries that usually have secure food supplies, such as the UK and US, are beginning to experience direct impacts of cost inflation due to food insecurity.[12] Some analysts described the price increases as the worst since the 2007–2008 world food price crisis.[9]

Background

Further information: Food security during the COVID-19 pandemic, 2021–2022 global supply chain crisis, and 2021–2022 global energy crisis

The COVID 19 pandemic significantly disrupted food supply chains around the world, both disrupting distribution channels at the consumption and distribution stages of the food industry. Moreover, a rise prices for fuel and transport, further increased the complexity of distribution as food competed with other goods.

At the same time, significant 2021 floods and heatwaves destroyed key crops in North America, Latin America and Europe.[13]

Causes

Russian invasion of Ukraine

This section is an excerpt from Economic impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine § Cost of food and crops.[edit]
 
A burning wheat field near Andriivka, Kharkiv Oblast after Russian shelling on 5 July 2022

Wheat prices surged to their highest prices since 2008 in response to the 2022 attacks.[14] Ukraine accounted for 10% of global wheat exports.[15] At the time of the invasion, Ukraine was the fourth-largest exporter of corn and wheat, and the world's largest exporter of sunflower oil, with Russia and Ukraine together responsible for 27% of the world's wheat exports and 53% of the world's sunflowers and seeds.[16] The head of the World Food Programme, David Beasley, warned in March that the war in Ukraine could take the global food crisis to "levels beyond anything we've seen before".[17]

A potential disruption to global wheat supplies could exacerbate the ongoing hunger crisis in Yemen,[18] Afghanistan[19][20] and East Africa.[21] The American Bakers Association president warned that the price of anything made with grain would begin rising as all the grain markets are interrelated. The chief agricultural economist for Wells Fargo stated that Ukraine will likely be severely limited in their ability to plant crops in spring 2022 and lose an agricultural year, while an embargo on Russian crops would create more inflation of food prices. Recovering crop production capabilities may take years even after fighting has stopped.[22]

Surging wheat prices resulting from the conflict have strained African countries such as Egypt, which are highly dependent upon Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports, and have provoked fears of social unrest.[23] At least 25 African countries import a third of their wheat from Russia and Ukraine, and 15 of them import more than half from those two countries.[24] On 24 February, the Chinese government announced that it would drop all restrictions on Russian wheat as part of an agreement that had been reached earlier in February;[25] the South China Morning Post called this a potential "lifeline" for the Russian economy.[26]

On 4 March, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations reported that the world Food Price Index reached an all-time high in February, posting a 24% year-over-year increase. Most of the data for the February report was compiled before the invasion, but analysts said a prolonged conflict could have a major impact on grain exports.[27][28]

On 30 March, at a United Nations meeting, the United States Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman stated that the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, including the naval blockade of Ukraine's sea ports and armed attacks on civilian cargo ships, created a critical food shortage in Ukraine, with worldwide ramifications.[29] In addition, potential food and fertiliser export difficulties encountered by the Russian Federation – the major exporter of potash, ammonia, urea and other soil nutrients –[30] as a result of economic sanctions could jeopardise the food security of many countries.[31][32]

Rising energy prices are also pushing agricultural costs higher, contributing to increasing food prices globally.[33] The agriculture and food industries use energy for various purposes. Direct energy use includes electricity for automated water irrigation, fuel consumption for farm machinery and energy required at various stages of food processing, packaging, transportation and distribution. The use of pesticides and mineral fertilisers results in large quantities of indirect energy consumption, with these inputs being highly energy intensive to manufacture.[33][34] While the share varies considerably between regions – depending on factors such as weather conditions and crop types – direct and non-direct energy costs can account for 40% to 50% of total variable costs of cropping in advanced economies such as the United States. Higher energy and fertiliser prices therefore inevitably translate into higher production costs, and ultimately into higher food prices.[34]

In May 2022, the FAO estimated that "at least 20 percent of Ukraine's winter crops" "may not be harvested or planted".[35] The food system-related environmental impacts of the war may include long-term harm to Ukraine's soil.[36][37]

Climate crises

Further information: Effects of climate change on agriculture

Multiple drought, heat and flooding events during 2020, 2021 and 2022 connected with climate change significantly hurt global food supplies and reserves further making the food system less resilient to shocks like the war in Ukraine. Global reserves of Wheat were extremely low at the beginning of 2022 because of these weather events.[38]

East African drought

Further information: 2021 Somali drought and Famine in the Tigray War

A drought that began in 2021, further intensified in East Africa during 2022, precipitated in part by the oncoming La Niña in 2022.[39][40] Three rainy seasons failed in the horn of Africa region, destroying crops and killing large herds of livestock.[39] The UN identified 20 million people at risk of famine.[39] Both wildlife and livestock have been witnessed dying of the drought.[39] In part the region is vulnerable because an extreme wet season precipitated the 2019–2021 locust infestation which destroyed large regions of crops.[39]

By early October 2021, nearly a year after the Tigray War started, Mark Lowcock, who led OCHA during part of the Tigray War, stated that the Ethiopian federal government was deliberately starving Tigray, "running a sophisticated campaign to stop aid getting in" and that there was "not just an attempt to starve six million people but an attempt to cover up what's going on."[41]

North American Heatwave and drought

Further information: 2021 Western North America heat wave and 2020–22 North American drought

European extreme weather

Drought in Spain and Portugal during early 2022 led to losses predictions in some areas of 60-80% of crops.[42] Fruit crops in most of Europe were also damaged from a cold wave that caused freezing rain, frost and snow during early budding caused by unseasonably early warm weather.[43]

Southern Cone Heat Wave

Further information: es:Ola_de_calor_en_el_Cono_Sur_en_2022

A heatwave that deeply effected Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Southern Brazil caused yield decline of corn crops, soy and other key grains causing significant global commodity price increases.[44][45][46][47] The heatwave further exacerbated an already dry season in much of the region.[47]

Australian floods

Further information: 2022 Eastern Australia floods

A severe flood in New South Wales during February 2022 caused complete destruction of soy and rice crops and 36% of macadamia nut production.[48] Animal herds and farming infrastructure were also severely damaged.[49] It was the third major natural disaster to the agriculture communities in this region.[49]

Supply chain failures

In China, rolling lockdowns as part of the Zero-Covid policy significantly reduced key agricultural inputs for important grain crops.[50]

Effects by region

Europe

Europe's energy crisis caused by the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine caused significant food price increases for European fertilizer and food industries.[51][52] According to Julia Meehan, the head of fertilizers for the commodity price agency ICIS, "We are seeing record prices for every fertiliser type, which are all way above the previous highs in 2008. It's very, very serious. People don't realise that 50% of the world's food relies on fertilisers."[53]

MENA and East Africa

Price increases for certain staples such as wheat were expected to most severely affect countries like Egypt, Turkey, and Somalia, which rely heavily on wheat imports from Ukraine and Russia.[9] This is expected to further hurt prices in regional food markets, such as Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, and South Sudan.[9]

These changes of the food market caused by the Invasion of Ukraine, further exacerbated an already vulnerable Horn of Africa region experiencing drought.[39] In February, World Food Program and UNICEF were already projecting nutrition and hunger gaps for thirteen million people in East Africa.[54] By March, the UN had expanded that number to 20 million people.[55]

North America

North America was already experiencing significant shortfalls and supply chain issues connected to the 2020–22 North American drought and 2021–2022 global supply chain crisis.[9]

West Africa

Oxfam, ALIMA and Save the Children warned that the food crises in West Africa could affect 27 million people, especially in Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Mali, and Nigeria .[56]

Responses

United States

The Biden Administration responded to the growing shortages in April, by trying to increase US farm production. The US policy community was worried about China or other countries filling the food gap. Obstruction in the US Congress prevented new funding and resources for the crises.[38] A group of 160 advocacy groups challenged funding cuts by the Biden administration and Congress to USDA programs.[57]

References

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  2. ^ Lynch, Colum. "U.N. to Keep Beasley at WFP as Food Crises Roil the World". Foreign Policy. Retrieved 2022-04-01.
  3. ^ McDonough, Siobhan (2022-02-27). "What the Russian invasion of Ukraine could mean for global hunger". Vox. Retrieved 2022-04-01.
  4. ^ Nicas, Jack (2022-03-20). "Ukraine War Threatens to Cause a Global Food Crisis". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2022-04-01.
  5. ^ Good, Keith (2022-03-21). ""Global Food Crisis" Possible- - "No Precedent Even Close to This Since World War II" • Farm Policy News". Farm Policy News. Retrieved 2022-04-05.
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  25. ^ "海关总署公告2022年第21号（关于允许俄罗斯全境小麦进口的公告） [General Administration of Customs Notification 21/2022]". General Administration of Customs. Archived from the original on 25 February 2022. Retrieved 6 March 2022.
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  33. ^ a b "Russia-Ukraine war worsens fertilizer crunch, risking food supplies". NPR. 12 April 2022.
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