[[Daniel Bernoulli]], is credited with publishing the first clear statement on the theory of marginal utility in his paper, "Specimen theoriae novae de mensura sortis," <ref>Bernoulli, Daniel; "Specimen theoriae novae de mensura sortis" in ''Commentarii Academiae Scientiarum Imperialis Petropolitanae'' 5 (1738); reprinted in translation as "Exposition of a new theory on the measurement of risk" in ''Econometrica'' 22 (1954).</ref> which was released in 1738, although he had drafted it in 1731 or 1732. .<ref>Bernoulli, Daniel; letter of 4 July 1731 to Nicolas Bernoulli ([http://www.cs.xu.edu/math/Sources/Montmort/stpetersburg.pdf#search=%22Nicolas%20Bernoulli%22 excerpted in PDF] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080909221757/http://www.cs.xu.edu/math/Sources/Montmort/stpetersburg.pdf |date=2008-09-09 }}).</ref><ref>Bernoulli, Nicolas; letter of 5 April 1732, acknowledging receipt of "Specimen theoriae novae metiendi sortem pecuniariam" ([http://www.cs.xu.edu/math/Sources/Montmort/stpetersburg.pdf#search=%22Nicolas%20Bernoulli%22 excerpted in PDF] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080909221757/http://www.cs.xu.edu/math/Sources/Montmort/stpetersburg.pdf |date=2008-09-09 }}).</ref> [[Gabriel Cramer]] had developed a similar theory in a private letter in 1728, aimed at resolving the [[St. Petersburg paradox]].<ref>Cramer, Garbriel; letter of 21 May 1728 to [[Nicolaus I Bernoulli|Nicolaus Bernoulli]] ([http://www.cs.xu.edu/math/Sources/Montmort/stpetersburg.pdf#search=%22Nicolas%20Bernoulli%22 excerpted in PDF] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080909221757/http://www.cs.xu.edu/math/Sources/Montmort/stpetersburg.pdf |date=2008-09-09 }}).</ref> Both Bernoulli and Cramer concluded that the desirability of money decreases as it accumulates, with the [[natural logarithm]] (Bernoulli) or [[square root]] (Cramer) serving as the measure of a sum's desirability. However, the broader implications of this hypothesis were not explored, and the work faded into obscurity.
In [http://socserv2.socsci.mcmaster.ca/~econ/ugcm/3ll3/lloyd/value "A Lecture on the Notion of Value as Distinguished Not Only from Utility, but also from Value in Exchange"], delivered in 1833 and included in ''Lectures on Population, Value, Poor Laws and Rent'' (1837), [[William Forster Lloyd]] explicitly offered a general marginal utility theory, but did not offer its derivation nor elaborate its implications. The importance of his statement seems to have been lost on everyone (including Lloyd) until the early 20th century, by which time others had independently developed and popularized the same insight.<ref>{{cite journal |author-link=Edwin Robert Anderson Seligman |last=Seligman |first=E. R. A. |title=On Some Neglected British Economists |journal=[[The Economic Journal]] |volume=13 |issue=51 |pages=335–63 |year=1903 |jstor=2221519 |doi=10.2307/2221519|hdl=2027/hvd.32044081864944 |hdl-access=free }}</ref>
