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Next United Kingdom general election: Difference between revisions

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Undid revision 1234056365 by ThingsCanOnlyGetWetter (talk) And it is possible that the immediately next Conservative leader isn't the actual lider at the time of the next election, but customary practice is to show ratings for the leaders at each time, then just add a new column for the new leader(s)
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| seats1 =
| last_election1 = 411
| current_seats1 = 411{{efn|name=LabourLabour2|Includes 43 MPs sponsored by the [[Co-operative Party]], who are designated [[Labour and Co-operative]].<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://party.coop/about/|title=About: Members of Parliament|publisher=[[Co-operative Party]]|language=en-GB|access-date=10 May 2024}}</ref>|group=}}
| party2 = Conservative Party (UK)
| colour2 =
| party_leader2 = {{abbr|''[[ToRishi be decided|TBDSunak]]''|To be decided}}{{efn|SubjectSunak has announced he is stepping down as leader and he is expected to be replaced by the resultwinner of the [[2024 Conservative Party leadership election (UK)|2024 Conservative Party leadership election]].}}
| percentage2 =
| seats2 =
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== Background ==
The [[2024 United Kingdom general election|2024 general election]] resulted in a [[landslide victory]] for the [[Labour Party (UK)|Labour Party]] led by [[Keir Starmer]], similar to that achieved by [[Tony Blair]] at the [[1997 United Kingdom general election|1997 general election]], the previous time a Labour opposition ousted a [[Conservative Party (UK)|Conservative]] government. The previously governing Conservative Party under Prime Minister [[Rishi Sunak]] lost 251 seats and suffered their worst ever defeat, ending their 14-year tenure as the primary governing party. The combined vote share for Labour and the Conservatives reached a record low, with smaller parties doing well. The [[Liberal Democrats (UK)|Liberal Democrats]] made significant gains to reach their highest ever number of seats. [[Reform UK]] placed third in the share of the vote in the 2024 election and had MPs elected to the Commons for the first time.<ref>{{Cite web |date=2024-07-05 |title=Nigel Farage storms the UK parliament.|url=https://www.politico.eu/article/nigel-farage-reform-uk-storms-parliament-cue-the-jaws-music/ |access-date=2024-07-05 |website=POLITICO |language=en-GB}}</ref> The [[Green Party of England and Wales]] also won a record number of seats alongside a number of independent MPs.<ref name="historicfirsts">{{cite web | url=https://news.sky.com/story/historic-firsts-from-the-2024-general-election-in-numbers-and-charts-13163306 | title=Historic firsts from the 2024 general election in numbers and charts }}</ref> The [[Scottish National Party]] (SNP) lost around three quarters of its seats.<ref>{{Cite web |date=4 July 2024 |title=UK general election results live: Labour set for landslide as results come in across country |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn09xn9je7lt |url-status=live |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20240704043031/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn09xn9je7lt |archive-date=4 July 2024 |access-date=4 July 2024 |website=BBC News}}</ref> Labour returned to being the largest party in Scotland and remained so in Wales. The Conservatives won no seats in Wales and only one seat in North East England.<ref name="historicfirsts" />
==== Background of 2024 general election ====
Prime Minister [[Rishi Sunak]]'s [[Conservative Party (UK)|Conservative Party]] lost over 240 seats and its 14-year long tenure in government. The [[Labour Party (UK)|Labour Party]] formed a majority government under the leadership of [[Keir Starmer]], winning over 400 seats. Other parties including the [[Liberal Democrats (UK)|Liberal Democrats]], [[Reform UK]] and the [[Green Party of England and Wales|Green Party]] saw an increase in their seat share in the [[House of Commons of the United Kingdom|House of Commons]] at expense of the Conservatives and the [[Scottish National Party]].
{{UK House of Commons composition}}
 
== Electoral system ==
Line 168 ⟶ 166:
* a [[British nationality law|British citizen]], a [[Commonwealth citizen]] (with leave to remain or not requiring it) or a [[Irish nationality law|citizen of the Republic of Ireland]],
* a resident at an address in the United Kingdom (or a British citizen living abroad), ''and''
* not legally excluded from voting (for example a convicted person detained in prison or a mental hospital, or unlawfully at large if they would otherwise have been detained, or a person found guilty of certain corrupt or illegal practices, or a sitting Member of the House of Lords)
 
Individuals must be [[Elections in the United Kingdom#Registration procedure|registered to vote]] by midnight twelve working days before polling day. Anyone who qualifies as an [[Anonymous elector#United Kingdom|anonymous elector]] has approximately five working days before polling day to register. A person who has two homes (such as a university student who has a term-time address and lives at home during holidays) may be able to register to vote at both addresses as long as they are not in the same electoral area, but can only vote in one constituency at the general election.
 
== Date of the election ==
Under the [[Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022]], the [[Prime Minister of the United Kingdom|Primeprime Ministerminister]] has the power to request the [[Monarchy of the United Kingdom|monarch]] call an election at any time during the five-year length of a parliamentary session. If the Primeprime Ministerminister chooses not to calldo an electionthis, then parliament is automatically dissolved 5 years after the day it first met,<ref>Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022 (legislation.gov.uk), section 4 "Automatic dissolution of Parliament after five years"</ref> and a general election is held 25 working days after dissolution.<ref>{{CnCite web |datetitle=JulyGeneral Election 2024|reason=need: toWhat behappens ablenow toan verifyelection thehas 25been workingcalled? days|url=https://news.sky.com/story/general-election-2024-what-happens-now-a-vote-has-been-called-13141365 |access-date=2024-07-12 |website=Sky News |language=en}}</ref> The 2024 parliament first met on 9 July 2024,<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2024/july/what-happens-next-in-the-house-of-commons/|title=What happens next in the House of Commons|date=July 4, 2024|access-date=July 8, 2024|website=parliament.uk}}</ref> meaning that if an election isn't called, parliament will be automatically dissolved on 9 July 2029, and the latest an election could be held is 15 August 2029.
 
== Opinion polling ==
{{main|Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election}}
{{UK general election opinion polling|2015|2017|2019|2024|next=yes|la1=yes|la2=yes|la3=yes|la4=yes|la5=yes}}
Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election is being carried out continually by various organisations to gauge voting intention. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the [[British Polling Council]] (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules. The dates for these opinion polls range from the 2024 general election on 4 July to the present day.
=== Election polling ===
Most national opinion polls do not cover [[Northern Ireland]], which has [[List of political parties in Northern Ireland|different major political parties]] from the rest of the United Kingdom. This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means [[Great Britain]] (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire [[United Kingdom]]. [[Plaid Cymru]] only stand candidates in [[Wales]] and the [[Scottish National Party]] only stand candidates in [[Scotland]].
 
Under the [[Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022]], the next general election must be held no later than Wednesday 15 August 2029. The Act mandates that, if it has not already been dissolved at the request of the prime minister, Parliament automatically dissolves five years after it first met and polling day occurs no more than 25 working days later.
{{As of|2024|July|12}}, no voting intent opinion polls have yet been published since the 2024 general election.
 
{| class="wikitable sortable collapsible mw-datatable" style="text-align:center; font-size:90%; line-height:14px;"
! rowspan="2"|Dates<br />conducted
! rowspan="2"|Pollster
! rowspan="2"|Client
! rowspan="2"|Area
! rowspan="2" data-sort-type="number"|Sample<br />size
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Labour Party (UK)|Lab]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Conservative Party (UK)|Con]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Reform UK|Reform]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Liberal Democrats (UK)|Lib Dem]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Green Party of England and Wales|Green]]
! class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Scottish National Party|SNP]]
! rowspan="2" class="unsortable" style="width:75px;"|Others
! rowspan="2" data-sort-type="number"|Lead
|-
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Labour Party (UK)}};"|
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Conservative Party (UK)}};"|
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Reform UK}};"|
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democrats (UK)}};"|
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Green Party of England and Wales}};"|
! data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Scottish National Party}};"|
|-
| style="background:#e9e9e9;" rowspan="2"| 4 Jul 2024
| style="background:#e9e9e9;" rowspan="2" data-sort-value="2024-07-04"| [[2024 United Kingdom general election|2024 general election]]
| style="background:#e9e9e9;" rowspan="2"| –
| style="background:#e9e9e9;"| UK
| style="background:#e9e9e9;" rowspan="2"| –
| style="background:#ffccd9; color:black;"|'''33.7%'''
| style="background:#e9e9e9;"| 23.7%
| style="background:#e9e9e9;"| 14.3%
| style="background:#e9e9e9;"| 12.2%
| style="background:#e9e9e9;"| 6.8%
| style="background:#e9e9e9;"| 2.5%
| style="background:#e9e9e9;"| 6.8%
| style="background:{{party color|Labour Party (UK)}}; color:#ffffff;"| 10.0
|-
| style="background:#e9e9e9;"| GB
| style="background:#ffccd9; color:black;"|'''34.7%'''
| style="background:#e9e9e9;"| 24.4%
| style="background:#e9e9e9;"| 14.7%
| style="background:#e9e9e9;"| 12.5%
| style="background:#e9e9e9;"| 6.9%
| style="background:#e9e9e9;"| 2.5%
| style="background:#e9e9e9;"| 4.3%
| style="background:{{party color|Labour Party (UK)}}; color:#ffffff;"| 10.3
|}
 
=== Leadership approval polling ===
Various organisations have carried out opinion polling to gauge the opinions that voters hold towards political leaders. The polling companies listed are members of the [[British Polling Council]] (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
 
{| class="wikitable mw-datatable" style="text-align:center; font-size:90%; line-height:14px;"
! rowspan="3"|Dates<br />conducted
! rowspan="3"|Pollster
! rowspan="3" data-sort-type="number"|Sample<br />size
! colspan="3" class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Keir Starmer]]
! colspan="3" class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Rishi Sunak]]
! colspan="3" class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Nigel Farage]]
! colspan="3" class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Ed Davey]]
! colspan="3" class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Carla Denyer]]
! colspan="3" class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Adrian Ramsay]]
|-
! colspan="3" data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Labour Party (UK)}};"|
! colspan="3" data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Conservative Party (UK)}};"|
! colspan="3" data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Reform UK}};"|
! colspan="3" data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democrats (UK)}};"|
! colspan="6" data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Green Party of England and Wales}};"|
|-
! Pos.
! Neg.
! Net
! Pos.
! Neg.
! Net
! Pos.
! Neg.
! Net
! Pos.
! Neg.
! Net
! Pos.
! Neg.
! Net
! Pos.
! Neg.
! Net
|-
|5-8 July 2024
|[https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49993-keir-starmer-favourability-rises-8pts-following-election-victory YouGov]
|2,102
|44%
|style="background:#ffcccb"|'''47%'''
|style="background:#ffcccb"|-3%
|23%
|style="background:#ffcccb"|'''70%'''
|style="background:#ffcccb"|-47%
|27%
|style="background:#ffcccb"|'''65%'''
|style="background:#ffcccb"|-38%
|style="background:#C1F0C1"|'''34%'''
|29%
|style="background:#C1F0C1"|+5%
|13%
|style="background:#ffcccb"|'''16%'''
|style="background:#ffcccb"|-3%
|7%
|style="background:#ffcccb"|'''14%'''
|style="background:#ffcccb"|-7%
|}
 
=== Party approval polling ===
{| class="wikitable mw-datatable" style="text-align:center; font-size:90%; line-height:14px;"
! rowspan="3"|Dates<br />conducted
! rowspan="3"|Pollster
! rowspan="3" data-sort-type="number"|Sample<br />size
! colspan="3" class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Labour Party (UK)|Lab]]
! colspan="3" class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Conservative Party (UK)|Con]]
! colspan="3" class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Reform UK|Reform]]
! colspan="3" class="unsortable" style="width:50px;"|[[Liberal Democrats (UK)|Lib Dem]]
! colspan="3" class="unsortable" style="width:100px;"|[[Green Party of England and Wales|Green]]
|-
! colspan="3" data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Labour Party (UK)}};"|
! colspan="3" data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Conservative Party (UK)}};"|
! colspan="3" data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Reform UK}};"|
! colspan="3" data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Liberal Democrats (UK)}};"|
! colspan="3" data-sort-type="number" style="background:{{party color|Green Party of England and Wales}};"|
|-
! Pos.
! Neg.
! Net
! Pos.
! Neg.
! Net
! Pos.
! Neg.
! Net
! Pos.
! Neg.
! Net
! Pos.
! Neg.
! Net
|-
|5-8 July 2024
|[https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49993-keir-starmer-favourability-rises-8pts-following-election-victory YouGov]
|2,102
|style="background:#C1F0C1"|'''47%'''
|46%
|style="background:#C1F0C1"|+1%
|21%
|style="background:#ffcccb"|'''72%'''
|style="background:#ffcccb"|-51%
|28%
|style="background:#ffcccb"|'''62%'''
|style="background:#ffcccb"|-34%
|style="background:#C1F0C1"|'''45%'''
|37%
|style="background:#C1F0C1"|+8%
|style="background:#C1F0C1"|'''46%'''
|38%
|style="background:#C1F0C1"|+8%
|}
 
== Notes ==
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election"