Crippling Southern Ice Storm, Hard Freeze Coming Next Week

I'm sure many of you have been watching TWC and all their graphics detailing the potential snow & ice storm coming for this weekend.  The main questions concern where will the boundary set up, where it's all snow, or will the ice buildup from freezing rain create massive power outages?  I'm pretty confident forecasting the coldest air of this winter for next Monday & Tuesday as there will finally be a nearby snow cover.  Here are some graphics from FOX 8.

Anyone thinking about traveling northward Saturday & Sunday needs to delay plans as there will be a massive ice storm on a line from Alexandria to Jackson, MS.  Hannah Gard showed us this morning that a Gulf low will form, but it will move too close to our coast, keeping our precip. a cold rain.  IF this low were to form farther to our south, it could bring the frozen precip. line closer to us.  That doesn't appear likely.  My guess is the line for sleet/freezing rain will get as close as Baton Rouge, to Covington, to Bogalusa.  Bottom line, there will be significant power outages in the freezing rain areas to our north late Saturday into Monday.  Again, this is 4-5 days out with great UNCERTAINTY and the potential is still there that the freeze line could sink closer.  One thing is for sure: coming Sunday through Tuesday is freezing temperatures with upper 20s possible on the South Shore Sunday night into Tuesday morning.  I'm leaving all plants outside until Saturday, when I'll bring the tropical plants into my He-Shed. Satellite views show the Gulf return moisture surging northward over Texas.

You can see the dew points in the 40s & 50s that will be here by later tomorrow.

With the surface high moving to the East coast, warmer air will ride back northward on the backside bring very mild air over us.  But don't get used to it as more Arctic air is over eastern Canada.

After another chilly start, we warmed into the lower 60s.  Tomorrow could approach 70.

To summarize, it appears that the rain, sleet & snow line will stay well to our north, but that could change.  Nicandra just showed the latest Euro model.

It keeps South LA/MS all rain.  Sorry, you snow geeks, but remember, stuff can change.  IF the low forms farther to the south in the Gulf and draws in colder air, who knows?  Keep the faith.  Finally,

This week's podcast features FOX 8 morning meteorologist Zack Fradella.  To see & hear Zack, you'll have to subscribe to my podcast at bobbreck.com.  The cost is only $2/month.  John Snell is next week's guest.  Let's pay attention to the ever-changing forecast this weekend.  Stay tuned!

Here We Go Again, A Southern Weekend Ice/Snowstorm, Zack Podcast Tuesday

One of the things I've preached for years is the UNCERTAINTY of the models beyond 3-5 days.  But since everyone now has access to model data, all weathercasters show future model solutions a week ahead of time.  I don't have a problem with that as long as the weathercaster advises you about the uncertainty and that things are likely to change.  So here's the early prediction for this coming weekend.

A band of heavy snow will fall from Oklahoma across Arkansas into Tennessee & the Virginias with sleet/ice to the south.  The frozen precip. line is likely to shift farther to the south in future forecasts. If you plan any travel later this week going north, you need to pay attention to the forecast as you don't want to drive into a snow or ice storm.  I'm sure local weathercasters will be all over the daily model runs.  You snow geeks, don't give up hope yet, as the pattern for the last 7-10 days of January look well below normal/average, meaning very cold.

In fact, I was watching TWC and saw these graphics.

Yikes! 4 degrees in Oklahoma City for Monday morning.  Then I did a closer look and saw WIND CHILLS.  I don't mind showing wind chills, but only after you show the expected temperatures.  Don't overhype the cold air.  With the northerly flow coming straight out of Canada, the Arctic air will keep coming into the lower 48.

The super cold (40-50 below) has moderated and drifted over central & eastern Canada.  Still, 20-30 below is no picnic.  The Great Lakes snow machine will be in full force this week. All the cold is pouring southward due to a lobe of the Polar Vortex.

Look how that changes this week.  The top is Wednesday morning, followed by Friday & then Sunday.

The upper flow doesn't change much; however, note the little red spot off of California.  That could be something to watch IF it comes over us early Next week.

Clearly, the core of this current cold is up north & east.  The question for Sunday & beyond is...will the Arctic air sink farther to the south as that west coast disturbance approaches Sunday & next Monday?  Humm?!!!

Keep your plants covered again tonight before we see a warm up for Wednesday-Friday.  Don't forget, my next podcast tomorrow is with Zack Fradella.

To see & hear Zack, go to bobbreck.com to subscribe.  For $2/month, you'll get to find out about your favorite CH. 8 personalities.  Stay tuned!