arXiv : Global fits of GUT-scale SUSY models with GAMBIT

Athron, Peter; Edsjö, Joakim; Savage, Christopher; Dal, Lars A.; Farmer, Ben; Rogan, Christopher; Kvellestad, Anders; Ruiz de Austri, Roberto; Putze, Antje; Chrząszcz, Marcin; Balázs, Csaba; Serra, Nicola; Cornell, Jonathan M.; Saavedra, Aldo; Krislock, Abram; White, Martin; Jackson, Paul; Weniger, Christoph; Buckley, Andy; Bringmann, Torsten; Martinez, Gregory D.; Scott, Pat; Mahmoudi, Farvah; Conrad, Jan; Raklev, Are
doi:10.1140/epjc/s10052-017-5167-0
002266045 001__ 2266045
002266045 005__ 20240613061009.0
002266045 0248_ $$aoai:cds.cern.ch:2266045$$pcerncds:CERN$$pcerncds:CERN:FULLTEXT$$pcerncds:FULLTEXT
002266045 0247_ $$2DOI$$9arXiv$$a10.1140/epjc/s10052-017-5167-0$$qpublication
002266045 037__ $$9arXiv$$aarXiv:1705.07935$$chep-ph
002266045 037__ $$aCOEPP-MN-17-9
002266045 037__ $$aCERN-TH-2017-168
002266045 037__ $$aNORDITA 2017-080
002266045 037__ $$9arXiv:reportnumber$$aCoEPP-MN-17-9
002266045 037__ $$9arXiv:reportnumber$$agambit-physics
002266045 035__ $$9arXiv$$aoai:arXiv.org:1705.07935
002266045 037__ $$9arXiv:reportnumber$$agambit-physics-2017
002266045 035__ $$9Inspire$$aoai:inspirehep.net:1600955$$d2024-06-12T09:47:46Z$$h2024-06-13T02:01:20Z$$mmarcxml$$ttrue$$uhttps://inspirehep.net/api/oai2d
002266045 035__ $$9Inspire$$a1600955
002266045 041__ $$aeng
002266045 100__ $$aAthron, Peter$$iINSPIRE-00175335$$jORCID:0000-0003-2966-5914$$tGRID:grid.1002.3$$uMonash U.$$vSchool of Physics and Astronomy,Monash University,Melbourne,VIC 3800,Australia\and$$vAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale\and
002266045 245__ $$9arXiv$$aGlobal fits of GUT-scale SUSY models with GAMBIT
002266045 269__ $$c2017-05-22
002266045 260__ $$c2017-12-04
002266045 300__ $$a50 p
002266045 500__ $$9arXiv$$a50 pages, 21 figures, 7 tables, v2 accepted for publication in EPJC,
  v3 update Zenodo link
002266045 520__ $$9Springer$$aWe present the most comprehensive global fits to date of three supersymmetric models motivated by grand unification: the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model (CMSSM), and its Non-Universal Higgs Mass generalisations NUHM1 and NUHM2. We include likelihoods from a number of direct and indirect dark matter searches, a large collection of electroweak precision and flavour observables, direct searches for supersymmetry at LEP and Runs I and II of the LHC, and constraints from Higgs observables. Our analysis improves on existing results not only in terms of the number of included observables, but also in the level of detail with which we treat them, our sampling techniques for scanning the parameter space, and our treatment of nuisance parameters. We show that stau co-annihilation is now ruled out in the CMSSM at more than 95% confidence. Stop co-annihilation turns out to be one of the most promising mechanisms for achieving an appropriate relic density of dark matter in all three models, whilst avoiding all other constraints. We find high-likelihood regions of parameter space featuring light stops and charginos, making them potentially detectable in the near future at the LHC. We also show that tonne-scale direct detection will play a largely complementary role, probing large parts of the remaining viable parameter space, including essentially all models with multi-TeV neutralinos.
002266045 520__ $$9arXiv$$aWe present the most comprehensive global fits to date of three supersymmetric models motivated by grand unification: the Constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (CMSSM), and its Non-Universal Higgs Mass generalisations NUHM1 and NUHM2. We include likelihoods from a number of direct and indirect dark matter searches, a large collection of electroweak precision and flavour observables, direct searches for supersymmetry at LEP and Runs I and II of the LHC, and constraints from Higgs observables. Our analysis improves on existing results not only in terms of the number of included observables, but also in the level of detail with which we treat them, our sampling techniques for scanning the parameter space, and our treatment of nuisance parameters. We show that stau co-annihilation is now ruled out in the CMSSM at more than 95\% confidence. Stop co-annihilation turns out to be one of the most promising mechanisms for achieving an appropriate relic density of dark matter in all three models, whilst avoiding all other constraints. We find high-likelihood regions of parameter space featuring light stops and charginos, making them potentially detectable in the near future at the LHC. We also show that tonne-scale direct detection will play a largely complementary role, probing large parts of the remaining viable parameter space, including essentially all models with multi-TeV neutralinos.
002266045 540__ $$3publication$$aCC-BY-4.0$$fSCOAP3$$uhttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
002266045 540__ $$3preprint$$aarXiv nonexclusive-distrib 1.0$$uhttp://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/
002266045 542__ $$3publication$$f© The Author(s) 2017
002266045 595__ $$aCERN-TH
002266045 65017 $$2arXiv$$aastro-ph.CO
002266045 65017 $$2SzGeCERN$$aAstrophysics and Astronomy
002266045 65017 $$2arXiv$$ahep-ph
002266045 65017 $$2SzGeCERN$$aParticle Physics - Phenomenology
002266045 690C_ $$aCERN
002266045 693__ $$eGAMBIT
002266045 695__ $$2INSPIRE$$9bibclassify$$asupersymmetry: 3
002266045 695__ $$2INSPIRE$$9bibclassify$$adark matter: relic density
002266045 695__ $$2INSPIRE$$9bibclassify$$aHiggs particle: mass
002266045 695__ $$2INSPIRE$$9bibclassify$$aCERN LHC Coll
002266045 695__ $$2INSPIRE$$9bibclassify$$aminimal supersymmetric standard model
002266045 695__ $$2INSPIRE$$9bibclassify$$aelectroweak interaction
002266045 695__ $$2INSPIRE$$9bibclassify$$agrand unified theory
002266045 695__ $$2INSPIRE$$9bibclassify$$adirect detection
002266045 695__ $$2INSPIRE$$9bibclassify$$aCERN LEP Stor
002266045 695__ $$2INSPIRE$$9bibclassify$$aneutralino
002266045 695__ $$2INSPIRE$$9bibclassify$$achargino
002266045 695__ $$2INSPIRE$$9bibclassify$$aflavor
002266045 695__ $$2INSPIRE$$9bibclassify$$astau
002266045 700__ $$aBalázs, Csaba$$tGRID:grid.1002.3$$uMonash U.$$vAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale\and$$vSchool of Physics and Astronomy,Monash University,Melbourne,VIC 3800,Australia\and
002266045 700__ $$aBringmann, Torsten$$tGRID:grid.5510.1$$uOslo U.$$vDepartment of Physics,University of Oslo,N-0316 Oslo,Norway\and
002266045 700__ $$aBuckley, Andy$$tGRID:grid.8756.c$$uGlasgow U.$$vSUPA,School of Physics and Astronomy,University of Glasgow,Glasgow,G12 8QQ,UK\and
002266045 700__ $$aChrząszcz, Marcin$$tGRID:grid.418860.3$$tGRID:grid.7400.3$$uCracow, INP$$uZurich U.$$vH.~Niewodniczański Institute of Nuclear Physics,Polish Academy of Sciences,31-342  Kraków,Poland\and$$vPhysik-Institut,Universität Zürich,Winterthurerstrasse 190,8057 Zürich,Switzerland\and
002266045 700__ $$aConrad, Jan$$tGRID:grid.10548.38$$tGRID:grid.411313.5$$uStockholm U.$$uStockholm U., OKC$$vDepartment of Physics,Stockholm University,SE-10691 Stockholm,Sweden\and$$vOskar Klein Centre for Cosmoparticle Physics,AlbaNova University Centre,SE-10691 Stockholm,Sweden\and
002266045 700__ $$aCornell, Jonathan M.$$tGRID:grid.14709.3b$$uMcGill U.$$vDepartment of Physics,McGill University,3600 rue University,Montréal,Québec H3A 2T8,Canada\and
002266045 700__ $$aDal, Lars A.$$tGRID:grid.5510.1$$uOslo U.$$vDepartment of Physics,University of Oslo,N-0316 Oslo,Norway\and
002266045 700__ $$aEdsjö, Joakim$$tGRID:grid.10548.38$$tGRID:grid.411313.5$$uStockholm U.$$uStockholm U., OKC$$vDepartment of Physics,Stockholm University,SE-10691 Stockholm,Sweden\and$$vOskar Klein Centre for Cosmoparticle Physics,AlbaNova University Centre,SE-10691 Stockholm,Sweden\and
002266045 700__ $$aFarmer, [email protected]$$tGRID:grid.10548.38$$tGRID:grid.411313.5$$uStockholm U.$$uStockholm U., OKC$$vDepartment of Physics,Stockholm University,SE-10691 Stockholm,Sweden\and$$vOskar Klein Centre for Cosmoparticle Physics,AlbaNova University Centre,SE-10691 Stockholm,Sweden\and
002266045 700__ $$aJackson, Paul$$tGRID:grid.1010.0$$uAdelaide U.$$vAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale\and$$vDepartment of Physics,University of Adelaide,Adelaide,SA 5005,Australia\and
002266045 700__ $$aKrislock, Abram$$tGRID:grid.5510.1$$uOslo U.$$vDepartment of Physics,University of Oslo,N-0316 Oslo,Norway\and
002266045 700__ $$aKvellestad, [email protected]$$tGRID:grid.450306.4$$uNordita$$vNORDITA,Roslagstullsbacken 23,SE-10691 Stockholm,Sweden\and
002266045 700__ $$aMahmoudi, Farvah$$tGRID:grid.9132.9$$tGRID:grid.7849.2$$uIUF, Paris$$uCERN$$uLyon Observ.$$vAlso Institut Universitaire de France,103 boulevard Saint-Michel,75005 Paris,France$$vTheoretical Physics Department,CERN,CH-1211 Geneva 23,Switzerland\and$$vUniv Lyon,Univ Lyon 1,ENS de Lyon,CNRS,Centre de Recherche Astrophysique de Lyon UMR5574,F-69230 Saint-Genis-Laval,France\and
002266045 700__ $$aMartinez, Gregory D.$$tGRID:grid.19006.3e$$uUCLA$$vPhysics and Astronomy Department,University of California,Los Angeles,CA 90095,USA\and
002266045 700__ $$aPutze, Antje$$tGRID:grid.462959.5$$uAnnecy, LAPTH$$vLAPTh,Université de Savoie,CNRS,9 chemin de Bellevue B.P.110,F-74941 Annecy-le-Vieux,France\and
002266045 700__ $$aRaklev, Are$$tGRID:grid.5510.1$$uOslo U.$$vDepartment of Physics,University of Oslo,N-0316 Oslo,Norway\and
002266045 700__ $$aRogan, Christopher$$tGRID:grid.38142.3c$$uHarvard U., Phys. Dept.$$vDepartment of Physics,Harvard University,Cambridge,MA 02138,USA\and
002266045 700__ $$aRuiz de Austri, Roberto$$uValencia U., IFIC$$vInstituto de Física Corpuscular,IFIC-UV/CSIC,Valencia,Spain\and
002266045 700__ $$aSaavedra, Aldo$$tGRID:grid.1013.3$$uARC, CoEPP, Australia$$uSydney U.$$vCentre for Translational Data Science,Faculty of Engineering and Information Technologies,School of Physics,The University of Sydney,NSW 2006,Australia\and$$vAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale\and
002266045 700__ $$aSavage, Christopher$$tGRID:grid.450306.4$$uNordita$$vNORDITA,Roslagstullsbacken 23,SE-10691 Stockholm,Sweden\and
002266045 700__ $$aScott, Pat$$iINSPIRE-00159690$$tGRID:grid.7445.2$$uImperial Coll., London$$vDepartment of Physics,Imperial College London,Blackett Laboratory,Prince Consort Road,London SW7 2AZ,UK\and
002266045 700__ $$aSerra, Nicola$$tGRID:grid.7400.3$$uZurich U.$$vPhysik-Institut,Universität Zürich,Winterthurerstrasse 190,8057 Zürich,Switzerland\and
002266045 700__ $$aWeniger, Christoph$$tGRID:grid.7177.6$$uU. Amsterdam, GRAPPA$$vGRAPPA,Institute of Physics,University of Amsterdam,Science Park 904,1098 XH Amsterdam,Netherlands
002266045 700__ $$aWhite, [email protected]$$tGRID:grid.1010.0$$uAdelaide U.$$vDepartment of Physics,University of Adelaide,Adelaide,SA 5005,Australia\and$$vAustralian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Particle Physics at the Tera-scale\and
002266045 710__ $$gGAMBIT Collaboration
002266045 773__ $$c824$$n12$$pEur. Phys. J. C$$v77$$y2017
002266045 8564_ $$81316086$$s17705953$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/arXiv:1705.07935.pdf
002266045 8564_ $$81316029$$s6568$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM2_3_6_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00091 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm2}, but for the $m_{H_u}$--$m_{1/2}$ (top) and $m_{H_d}$--$m_{1/2}$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81316030$$s55043$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM1_2_3_like2D_post.png$$y00076 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the planes of the NUHM1 parameters $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top), and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom).  Explicit contour lines for 68\% and 95\% CL are drawn in white and the best fit point is indicated with a star. Right: Colour-coding shows the mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81316031$$s4252$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_bf-spectrum-nuhm1.png$$y00085 Sparticle mass spectrum of the NUHM1 best-fit point.
002266045 8564_ $$81316032$$s3878$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_2_3_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00068 \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio in the CMSSM, for $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top) and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom), with explicit 68\% and 95\% CL contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanisms active in models within the 95\% CL contour for avoiding thermal overproduction of neutralino dark matter, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g. stau co-annihilation) are not present, as they do not lie within the 95\% CL contour.
002266045 8564_ $$81316033$$s3019$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_132_like1D_zoom_post.png$$y00103 \textit{Left:} 1D profile likelihoods for the mass differences $m_{\tilde{t}_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (top) and $m_{\tilde{\chi}^+_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (bottom), in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple). \textit{Right:} as per left-hand plots, but zoomed to focus on the smallest mass differences.
002266045 8564_ $$81316034$$s5326$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM2_105_220_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00123 The spin-dependent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 79-string IceCube search for DM~\cite{IC79,IC79_SUSY}, assuming dark matter annihilation in the Sun to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states, from PICO-60~\cite{PICO60_2} (green solid), and projected limits from PICO-250 \cite{PICO250} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81316035$$s29687$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_105_108_like2D_post.png$$y00106 2D profile likelihoods for the CMSSM, plotted in the  $\tilde{t}_1-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Left:} the full range of neutralino masses present in the combined sample.  \textit{Right:} as per the lefthand panel, but zoomed in to focus on the low-mass region. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for  $\tilde{t}_1$ pair production, followed by decay to $t$ quarks and the lightest neutralino~\cite{CMSStopSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81316036$$s5702$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM1_3_6_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00082 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm1}, but for the $m_{1/2}$--$m_H$ (top) and $m_{0}$--$m_H$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81316037$$s3772$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_109_like1D_post.png$$y00098 1D profile likelihoods for the masses of $\tilde{g}$, $\tilde{t}_1$, $\tilde{b}_1$, $\tilde{\tau}_1$, $\tilde{\chi}_1^0$ and $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple).
002266045 8564_ $$81316038$$s51626$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM2_3_6_like2D_post.png$$y00090 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm2}, but for the $m_{H_u}$--$m_{1/2}$ (top) and $m_{H_d}$--$m_{1/2}$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81316039$$s28637$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_2_3_negmu_like2D_post.png$$y00073 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ plane of the CMSSM, for $\mu \geq 0$ (top) and $\mu &lt; 0$ (bottom). \textit{Right:} Colour-coding showing the mechanisms for avoiding a relic density of DM that exceeds the observed value.
002266045 8564_ $$81316040$$s3217$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_131_like1D_zoom_post.png$$y00105 \textit{Left:} 1D profile likelihoods for the mass differences $m_{\tilde{t}_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (top) and $m_{\tilde{\chi}^+_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (bottom), in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple). \textit{Right:} as per left-hand plots, but zoomed to focus on the smallest mass differences.
002266045 8564_ $$81316041$$s4005$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_110_like1D_post.png$$y00099 1D profile likelihoods for the masses of $\tilde{g}$, $\tilde{t}_1$, $\tilde{b}_1$, $\tilde{\tau}_1$, $\tilde{\chi}_1^0$ and $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple).
002266045 8564_ $$81316042$$s6310$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM1_105_218_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00125 The present-day neutralino self-annihilation cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM.  \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue).  \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 95\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 6-year \textit{Fermi}-LAT search for DM annihilation in 15 satellite dwarf galaxies \cite{LATdwarfP8}, assuming dark matter annihilation to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states.  We also show the projected improvement for $b\bar{b}$ final states with 15 years of  LAT data and four times as many dwarfs \cite{Charles:2016pgz} (dashed yellow), and an optimistic projection of the sensitivity to $b\bar{b}$ final states of a Galactic halo search for DM annihilation by the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array, assuming 500\,hr of observations and no systematic uncertainties \cite{Carr:2015hta} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81316043$$s3725$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_105_106_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00111 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the CMSSM in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay with decoupled sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81316044$$s5236$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM2_105_217_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00119 The spin-independent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Lower Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the complete LUX exposure~\cite{LUXrun2}, the projected reach of XENON1T with two years of exposure, the projected reach of XENONnT/LZ with 20 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{XENONnTLZ} (around 1--3 years of data), and the projected reach of DARWIN with 200 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{DARWIN} (around 3--4 years of data). The ``neutrino floor'', where the coherent neutrino background starts to limit the experimental sensitivity, is indicated by the dashed grey line \cite{Billard:2013qya}. The exact position of this limit is subject to several caveats; see \cite{Billard:2013qya} for further details.
002266045 8564_ $$81316045$$s35333$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_2_3_posmu_like2D_post.png$$y00071 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ plane of the CMSSM, for $\mu \geq 0$ (top) and $\mu &lt; 0$ (bottom). \textit{Right:} Colour-coding showing the mechanisms for avoiding a relic density of DM that exceeds the observed value.
002266045 8564_ $$81316046$$s3652$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_105_108_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00108 95\% CL 2D profile likelihoods in the $\tilde{t}_1-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane, coloured according to the mechanism(s) active in depleting the relic density.  \textit{Left:} the CMSSM. \textit{Right:} the NUHM1.  Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{t}_1$ pair production and subsequent decay to $t$ quarks and the lightest neutralino~\cite{CMSStopSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81316047$$s42470$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_4_1_like2D_post.png$$y00069 \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio in the CMSSM, for $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top) and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom), with explicit 68\% and 95\% CL contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanisms active in models within the 95\% CL contour for avoiding thermal overproduction of neutralino dark matter, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g. stau co-annihilation) are not present, as they do not lie within the 95\% CL contour.
002266045 8564_ $$81316048$$s3248$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_4_1_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00070 \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio in the CMSSM, for $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top) and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom), with explicit 68\% and 95\% CL contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanisms active in models within the 95\% CL contour for avoiding thermal overproduction of neutralino dark matter, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g. stau co-annihilation) are not present, as they do not lie within the 95\% CL contour.
002266045 8564_ $$81316049$$s5966$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_105_201_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00065 Profile likelihoods and confidence regions for the CMSSM, in terms of the mass and thermal relic abundance ($\Omega_\chi h^2$) of the lightest neutralino. \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio, plotted with $1 \sigma$ and $2 \sigma$ contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Mechanisms for ensuring that the relic density of DM does not exceed the measured value, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$-funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g.\ stau co-annihilation) are not shown, as they do not lie within $2 \sigma$ of the best-fit point of the entire sample. $2 \sigma$ contours for each mechanism are plotted using darker lines, and best-fit points are indicated by a correspondingly coloured star.
002266045 8564_ $$81316050$$s4126$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM1_105_106_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00113 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the NUHM1 in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay via sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSleptonSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81316051$$s47786$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM1_4_1_like2D_post.png$$y00078 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the planes of the NUHM1 parameters $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top), and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom).  Explicit contour lines for 68\% and 95\% CL are drawn in white and the best fit point is indicated with a star. Right: Colour-coding shows the mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81316052$$s5681$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM1_4_1_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00079 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the planes of the NUHM1 parameters $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top), and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom).  Explicit contour lines for 68\% and 95\% CL are drawn in white and the best fit point is indicated with a star. Right: Colour-coding shows the mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81316053$$s6610$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM2_4_1_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00089 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihoods in the NUHM2, in terms of the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ and $A_0-\tan\beta$ planes.  \textit{Right:} corresponding mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81316054$$s3852$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_111_like1D_post.png$$y00096 1D profile likelihoods for the masses of $\tilde{g}$, $\tilde{t}_1$, $\tilde{b}_1$, $\tilde{\tau}_1$, $\tilde{\chi}_1^0$ and $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple).
002266045 8564_ $$81316055$$s5756$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_rdcolours3.png$$y00066 Profile likelihoods and confidence regions for the CMSSM, in terms of the mass and thermal relic abundance ($\Omega_\chi h^2$) of the lightest neutralino. \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio, plotted with $1 \sigma$ and $2 \sigma$ contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Mechanisms for ensuring that the relic density of DM does not exceed the measured value, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$-funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g.\ stau co-annihilation) are not shown, as they do not lie within $2 \sigma$ of the best-fit point of the entire sample. $2 \sigma$ contours for each mechanism are plotted using darker lines, and best-fit points are indicated by a correspondingly coloured star.\textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio in the CMSSM, for $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top) and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom), with explicit 68\% and 95\% CL contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanisms active in models within the 95\% CL contour for avoiding thermal overproduction of neutralino dark matter, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g. stau co-annihilation) are not present, as they do not lie within the 95\% CL contour.\textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ plane of the CMSSM, for $\mu \geq 0$ (top) and $\mu &lt; 0$ (bottom). \textit{Right:} Colour-coding showing the mechanisms for avoiding a relic density of DM that exceeds the observed value.As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm2}, but for the $m_{H_u}$--$m_{1/2}$ (top) and $m_{H_d}$--$m_{1/2}$ (bottom) planes.\textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the CMSSM in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay with decoupled sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81316056$$s3668$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_108_like1D_post.png$$y00097 1D profile likelihoods for the masses of $\tilde{g}$, $\tilde{t}_1$, $\tilde{b}_1$, $\tilde{\tau}_1$, $\tilde{\chi}_1^0$ and $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple).
002266045 8564_ $$81316057$$s3471$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_105_220_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00122 The spin-dependent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 79-string IceCube search for DM~\cite{IC79,IC79_SUSY}, assuming dark matter annihilation in the Sun to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states, from PICO-60~\cite{PICO60_2} (green solid), and projected limits from PICO-250 \cite{PICO250} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81316058$$s4799$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM1_105_108_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00109 95\% CL 2D profile likelihoods in the $\tilde{t}_1-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane, coloured according to the mechanism(s) active in depleting the relic density.  \textit{Left:} the CMSSM. \textit{Right:} the NUHM1.  Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{t}_1$ pair production and subsequent decay to $t$ quarks and the lightest neutralino~\cite{CMSStopSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81316059$$s4184$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_121_like1D_post.png$$y00104 \textit{Left:} 1D profile likelihoods for the mass differences $m_{\tilde{t}_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (top) and $m_{\tilde{\chi}^+_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (bottom), in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple). \textit{Right:} as per left-hand plots, but zoomed to focus on the smallest mass differences.
002266045 8564_ $$81316060$$s7536$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_rdcolours4.png$$y00080 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the planes of the NUHM1 parameters $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top), and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom).  Explicit contour lines for 68\% and 95\% CL are drawn in white and the best fit point is indicated with a star. Right: Colour-coding shows the mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm1}, but for the $m_{1/2}$--$m_H$ (top) and $m_{0}$--$m_H$ (bottom) planes.\textit{Left:} Profile likelihoods in the NUHM2, in terms of the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ and $A_0-\tan\beta$ planes.  \textit{Right:} corresponding mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.95\% CL 2D profile likelihoods in the $\tilde{t}_1-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane, coloured according to the mechanism(s) active in depleting the relic density.  \textit{Left:} the CMSSM. \textit{Right:} the NUHM1.  Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{t}_1$ pair production and subsequent decay to $t$ quarks and the lightest neutralino~\cite{CMSStopSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).\textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the NUHM1 in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay via sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSleptonSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).\textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the NUHM2 in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay via sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSleptonSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).The spin-independent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Lower Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the complete LUX exposure~\cite{LUXrun2}, the projected reach of XENON1T with two years of exposure, the projected reach of XENONnT/LZ with 20 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{XENONnTLZ} (around 1--3 years of data), and the projected reach of DARWIN with 200 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{DARWIN} (around 3--4 years of data). The ``neutrino floor'', where the coherent neutrino background starts to limit the experimental sensitivity, is indicated by the dashed grey line \cite{Billard:2013qya}. The exact position of this limit is subject to several caveats; see \cite{Billard:2013qya} for further details.The spin-dependent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 79-string IceCube search for DM~\cite{IC79,IC79_SUSY}, assuming dark matter annihilation in the Sun to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states, from PICO-60~\cite{PICO60_2} (green solid), and projected limits from PICO-250 \cite{PICO250} (green dashes).The present-day neutralino self-annihilation cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM.  \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue).  \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 95\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 6-year \textit{Fermi}-LAT search for DM annihilation in 15 satellite dwarf galaxies \cite{LATdwarfP8}, assuming dark matter annihilation to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states.  We also show the projected improvement for $b\bar{b}$ final states with 15 years of  LAT data and four times as many dwarfs \cite{Charles:2016pgz} (dashed yellow), and an optimistic projection of the sensitivity to $b\bar{b}$ final states of a Galactic halo search for DM annihilation by the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array, assuming 500\,hr of observations and no systematic uncertainties \cite{Carr:2015hta} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81316061$$s6813$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM1_2_3_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00077 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the planes of the NUHM1 parameters $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top), and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom).  Explicit contour lines for 68\% and 95\% CL are drawn in white and the best fit point is indicated with a star. Right: Colour-coding shows the mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81316062$$s4791$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_bf-spectrum-nuhm2.png$$y00094 Sparticle mass spectrum of the NUHM2 best-fit point.
002266045 8564_ $$81316063$$s24802$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_105_108_like2D_zoom_post.png$$y00107 2D profile likelihoods for the CMSSM, plotted in the  $\tilde{t}_1-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Left:} the full range of neutralino masses present in the combined sample.  \textit{Right:} as per the lefthand panel, but zoomed in to focus on the low-mass region. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for  $\tilde{t}_1$ pair production, followed by decay to $t$ quarks and the lightest neutralino~\cite{CMSStopSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81316064$$s4594$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM2_105_106_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00115 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the NUHM2 in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay via sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSleptonSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81316065$$s4218$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_105_217_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00118 The spin-independent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Lower Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the complete LUX exposure~\cite{LUXrun2}, the projected reach of XENON1T with two years of exposure, the projected reach of XENONnT/LZ with 20 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{XENONnTLZ} (around 1--3 years of data), and the projected reach of DARWIN with 200 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{DARWIN} (around 3--4 years of data). The ``neutrino floor'', where the coherent neutrino background starts to limit the experimental sensitivity, is indicated by the dashed grey line \cite{Billard:2013qya}. The exact position of this limit is subject to several caveats; see \cite{Billard:2013qya} for further details.
002266045 8564_ $$81316066$$s4133$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM1_105_220_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00121 The spin-dependent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 79-string IceCube search for DM~\cite{IC79,IC79_SUSY}, assuming dark matter annihilation in the Sun to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states, from PICO-60~\cite{PICO60_2} (green solid), and projected limits from PICO-250 \cite{PICO250} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81316067$$s3954$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_106_like1D_post.png$$y00101 1D profile likelihoods for the masses of $\tilde{g}$, $\tilde{t}_1$, $\tilde{b}_1$, $\tilde{\tau}_1$, $\tilde{\chi}_1^0$ and $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple).
002266045 8564_ $$81316068$$s4615$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM1_105_217_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00117 The spin-independent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Lower Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the complete LUX exposure~\cite{LUXrun2}, the projected reach of XENON1T with two years of exposure, the projected reach of XENONnT/LZ with 20 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{XENONnTLZ} (around 1--3 years of data), and the projected reach of DARWIN with 200 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{DARWIN} (around 3--4 years of data). The ``neutrino floor'', where the coherent neutrino background starts to limit the experimental sensitivity, is indicated by the dashed grey line \cite{Billard:2013qya}. The exact position of this limit is subject to several caveats; see \cite{Billard:2013qya} for further details.
002266045 8564_ $$81316069$$s42902$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_105_218_like2D_wExps.png$$y00124 The present-day neutralino self-annihilation cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM.  \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue).  \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 95\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 6-year \textit{Fermi}-LAT search for DM annihilation in 15 satellite dwarf galaxies \cite{LATdwarfP8}, assuming dark matter annihilation to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states.  We also show the projected improvement for $b\bar{b}$ final states with 15 years of  LAT data and four times as many dwarfs \cite{Charles:2016pgz} (dashed yellow), and an optimistic projection of the sensitivity to $b\bar{b}$ final states of a Galactic halo search for DM annihilation by the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array, assuming 500\,hr of observations and no systematic uncertainties \cite{Carr:2015hta} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81316070$$s8456$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM2_105_218_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00127 The present-day neutralino self-annihilation cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM.  \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue).  \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 95\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 6-year \textit{Fermi}-LAT search for DM annihilation in 15 satellite dwarf galaxies \cite{LATdwarfP8}, assuming dark matter annihilation to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states.  We also show the projected improvement for $b\bar{b}$ final states with 15 years of  LAT data and four times as many dwarfs \cite{Charles:2016pgz} (dashed yellow), and an optimistic projection of the sensitivity to $b\bar{b}$ final states of a Galactic halo search for DM annihilation by the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array, assuming 500\,hr of observations and no systematic uncertainties \cite{Carr:2015hta} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81316071$$s28427$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_105_106_like2D_post.png$$y00110 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the CMSSM in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay with decoupled sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81316072$$s3914$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_105_like1D_post.png$$y00100 1D profile likelihoods for the masses of $\tilde{g}$, $\tilde{t}_1$, $\tilde{b}_1$, $\tilde{\tau}_1$, $\tilde{\chi}_1^0$ and $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple).
002266045 8564_ $$81316073$$s3878$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_207_like1D_post.png$$y00095 1D profile likelihood ratio for $\Delta a_{\mu}$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple). For comparison we show a Gaussian likelihood for the observed discrepancy $a_{\mu,\text{obs}} - a_{\mu,\text{SM}} = (28.7 \pm 8.0)\times10^{-10}$ (green), adding the experimental and theoretical uncertainties in quadrature.
002266045 8564_ $$81316074$$s29233$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM2_105_106_like2D_post.png$$y00114 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the NUHM2 in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay via sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSleptonSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81316075$$s5423$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_105_218_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00126 The present-day neutralino self-annihilation cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM.  \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue).  \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 95\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 6-year \textit{Fermi}-LAT search for DM annihilation in 15 satellite dwarf galaxies \cite{LATdwarfP8}, assuming dark matter annihilation to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states.  We also show the projected improvement for $b\bar{b}$ final states with 15 years of  LAT data and four times as many dwarfs \cite{Charles:2016pgz} (dashed yellow), and an optimistic projection of the sensitivity to $b\bar{b}$ final states of a Galactic halo search for DM annihilation by the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array, assuming 500\,hr of observations and no systematic uncertainties \cite{Carr:2015hta} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81316076$$s31823$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_2_3_like2D_post.png$$y00067 \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio in the CMSSM, for $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top) and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom), with explicit 68\% and 95\% CL contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanisms active in models within the 95\% CL contour for avoiding thermal overproduction of neutralino dark matter, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g. stau co-annihilation) are not present, as they do not lie within the 95\% CL contour.
002266045 8564_ $$81316077$$s7907$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM2_3_7_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00093 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm2}, but for the $m_{H_u}$--$m_{1/2}$ (top) and $m_{H_d}$--$m_{1/2}$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81316078$$s42089$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM1_3_6_like2D_post.png$$y00081 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm1}, but for the $m_{1/2}$--$m_H$ (top) and $m_{0}$--$m_H$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81316079$$s26200$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_105_220_like2D_wExps.png$$y00120 The spin-dependent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 79-string IceCube search for DM~\cite{IC79,IC79_SUSY}, assuming dark matter annihilation in the Sun to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states, from PICO-60~\cite{PICO60_2} (green solid), and projected limits from PICO-250 \cite{PICO250} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81316080$$s64339$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM2_2_3_like2D_post.png$$y00086 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihoods in the NUHM2, in terms of the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ and $A_0-\tan\beta$ planes.  \textit{Right:} corresponding mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81316081$$s7367$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM2_2_3_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00087 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihoods in the NUHM2, in terms of the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ and $A_0-\tan\beta$ planes.  \textit{Right:} corresponding mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81316082$$s35599$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_105_217_like2D_wExps.png$$y00116 The spin-independent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Lower Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the complete LUX exposure~\cite{LUXrun2}, the projected reach of XENON1T with two years of exposure, the projected reach of XENONnT/LZ with 20 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{XENONnTLZ} (around 1--3 years of data), and the projected reach of DARWIN with 200 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{DARWIN} (around 3--4 years of data). The ``neutrino floor'', where the coherent neutrino background starts to limit the experimental sensitivity, is indicated by the dashed grey line \cite{Billard:2013qya}. The exact position of this limit is subject to several caveats; see \cite{Billard:2013qya} for further details.
002266045 8564_ $$81316083$$s3652$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_2_3_posmu_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00072 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ plane of the CMSSM, for $\mu \geq 0$ (top) and $\mu &lt; 0$ (bottom). \textit{Right:} Colour-coding showing the mechanisms for avoiding a relic density of DM that exceeds the observed value.
002266045 8564_ $$81316084$$s26917$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM1_105_106_like2D_post.png$$y00112 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the NUHM1 in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay via sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSleptonSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81316085$$s49592$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_105_201_like2D_post.png$$y00064 Profile likelihoods and confidence regions for the CMSSM, in terms of the mass and thermal relic abundance ($\Omega_\chi h^2$) of the lightest neutralino. \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio, plotted with $1 \sigma$ and $2 \sigma$ contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Mechanisms for ensuring that the relic density of DM does not exceed the measured value, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$-funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g.\ stau co-annihilation) are not shown, as they do not lie within $2 \sigma$ of the best-fit point of the entire sample. $2 \sigma$ contours for each mechanism are plotted using darker lines, and best-fit points are indicated by a correspondingly coloured star.
002266045 8564_ $$81316087$$s59761$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM2_4_1_like2D_post.png$$y00088 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihoods in the NUHM2, in terms of the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ and $A_0-\tan\beta$ planes.  \textit{Right:} corresponding mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81316088$$s46222$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM1_2_6_like2D_post.png$$y00083 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm1}, but for the $m_{1/2}$--$m_H$ (top) and $m_{0}$--$m_H$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81316089$$s64084$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM2_3_7_like2D_post.png$$y00092 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm2}, but for the $m_{H_u}$--$m_{1/2}$ (top) and $m_{H_d}$--$m_{1/2}$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81316090$$s4476$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_bf-spectrum-cmssm.png$$y00075 Sparticle mass spectrum of the CMSSM best-fit point.
002266045 8564_ $$81316091$$s3146$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_2_3_negmu_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00074 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ plane of the CMSSM, for $\mu \geq 0$ (top) and $\mu &lt; 0$ (bottom). \textit{Right:} Colour-coding showing the mechanisms for avoiding a relic density of DM that exceeds the observed value.
002266045 8564_ $$81316092$$s5845$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_NUHM1_2_6_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00084 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm1}, but for the $m_{1/2}$--$m_H$ (top) and $m_{0}$--$m_H$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81316093$$s3783$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_122_like1D_post.png$$y00102 \textit{Left:} 1D profile likelihoods for the mass differences $m_{\tilde{t}_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (top) and $m_{\tilde{\chi}^+_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (bottom), in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple). \textit{Right:} as per left-hand plots, but zoomed to focus on the smallest mass differences.
002266045 8564_ $$81367486$$s7367$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM2_2_3_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00023 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihoods in the NUHM2, in terms of the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ and $A_0-\tan\beta$ planes.  \textit{Right:} corresponding mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81367487$$s5681$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM1_4_1_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00015 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the planes of the NUHM1 parameters $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top), and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom).  Explicit contour lines for 68\% and 95\% CL are drawn in white and the best fit point is indicated with a star. Right: Colour-coding shows the mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81367488$$s4184$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_121_like1D_post.png$$y00040 \textit{Left:} 1D profile likelihoods for the mass differences $m_{\tilde{t}_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (top) and $m_{\tilde{\chi}^+_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (bottom), in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple). \textit{Right:} as per left-hand plots, but zoomed to focus on the smallest mass differences.
002266045 8564_ $$81367489$$s3852$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_111_like1D_post.png$$y00032 1D profile likelihoods for the masses of $\tilde{g}$, $\tilde{t}_1$, $\tilde{b}_1$, $\tilde{\tau}_1$, $\tilde{\chi}_1^0$ and $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple).
002266045 8564_ $$81367490$$s6310$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM1_105_218_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00061 The present-day neutralino self-annihilation cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM.  \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue).  \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 95\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 6-year \textit{Fermi}-LAT search for DM annihilation in 15 satellite dwarf galaxies \cite{LATdwarfP8}, assuming dark matter annihilation to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states.  We also show the projected improvement for $b\bar{b}$ final states with 15 years of  LAT data and four times as many dwarfs \cite{Charles:2016pgz} (dashed yellow), and an optimistic projection of the sensitivity to $b\bar{b}$ final states of a Galactic halo search for DM annihilation by the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array, assuming 500\,hr of observations and no systematic uncertainties \cite{Carr:2015hta} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81367491$$s8456$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM2_105_218_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00063 The present-day neutralino self-annihilation cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM.  \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue).  \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 95\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 6-year \textit{Fermi}-LAT search for DM annihilation in 15 satellite dwarf galaxies \cite{LATdwarfP8}, assuming dark matter annihilation to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states.  We also show the projected improvement for $b\bar{b}$ final states with 15 years of  LAT data and four times as many dwarfs \cite{Charles:2016pgz} (dashed yellow), and an optimistic projection of the sensitivity to $b\bar{b}$ final states of a Galactic halo search for DM annihilation by the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array, assuming 500\,hr of observations and no systematic uncertainties \cite{Carr:2015hta} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81367492$$s5236$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM2_105_217_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00055 The spin-independent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Lower Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the complete LUX exposure~\cite{LUXrun2}, the projected reach of XENON1T with two years of exposure, the projected reach of XENONnT/LZ with 20 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{XENONnTLZ} (around 1--3 years of data), and the projected reach of DARWIN with 200 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{DARWIN} (around 3--4 years of data). The ``neutrino floor'', where the coherent neutrino background starts to limit the experimental sensitivity, is indicated by the dashed grey line \cite{Billard:2013qya}. The exact position of this limit is subject to several caveats; see \cite{Billard:2013qya} for further details.
002266045 8564_ $$81367493$$s3878$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_207_like1D_post.png$$y00031 1D profile likelihood ratio for $\Delta a_{\mu}$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple). For comparison we show a Gaussian likelihood for the observed discrepancy $a_{\mu,\text{obs}} - a_{\mu,\text{SM}} = (28.7 \pm 8.0)\times10^{-10}$ (green), adding the experimental and theoretical uncertainties in quadrature.
002266045 8564_ $$81367494$$s59761$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM2_4_1_like2D_post.png$$y00024 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihoods in the NUHM2, in terms of the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ and $A_0-\tan\beta$ planes.  \textit{Right:} corresponding mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81367495$$s29233$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM2_105_106_like2D_post.png$$y00050 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the NUHM2 in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay via sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSleptonSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81367496$$s6610$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM2_4_1_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00025 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihoods in the NUHM2, in terms of the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ and $A_0-\tan\beta$ planes.  \textit{Right:} corresponding mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81367497$$s47786$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM1_4_1_like2D_post.png$$y00014 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the planes of the NUHM1 parameters $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top), and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom).  Explicit contour lines for 68\% and 95\% CL are drawn in white and the best fit point is indicated with a star. Right: Colour-coding shows the mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81367498$$s4799$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM1_105_108_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00045 95\% CL 2D profile likelihoods in the $\tilde{t}_1-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane, coloured according to the mechanism(s) active in depleting the relic density.  \textit{Left:} the CMSSM. \textit{Right:} the NUHM1.  Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{t}_1$ pair production and subsequent decay to $t$ quarks and the lightest neutralino~\cite{CMSStopSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81367499$$s6568$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM2_3_6_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00027 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm2}, but for the $m_{H_u}$--$m_{1/2}$ (top) and $m_{H_d}$--$m_{1/2}$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81367500$$s3783$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_122_like1D_post.png$$y00038 \textit{Left:} 1D profile likelihoods for the mass differences $m_{\tilde{t}_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (top) and $m_{\tilde{\chi}^+_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (bottom), in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple). \textit{Right:} as per left-hand plots, but zoomed to focus on the smallest mass differences.
002266045 8564_ $$81367501$$s4126$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM1_105_106_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00049 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the NUHM1 in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay via sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSleptonSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81367502$$s55043$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM1_2_3_like2D_post.png$$y00012 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the planes of the NUHM1 parameters $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top), and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom).  Explicit contour lines for 68\% and 95\% CL are drawn in white and the best fit point is indicated with a star. Right: Colour-coding shows the mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81367503$$s5966$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_105_201_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00001 Profile likelihoods and confidence regions for the CMSSM, in terms of the mass and thermal relic abundance ($\Omega_\chi h^2$) of the lightest neutralino. \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio, plotted with $1 \sigma$ and $2 \sigma$ contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Mechanisms for ensuring that the relic density of DM does not exceed the measured value, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$-funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g.\ stau co-annihilation) are not shown, as they do not lie within $2 \sigma$ of the best-fit point of the entire sample. $2 \sigma$ contours for each mechanism are plotted using darker lines, and best-fit points are indicated by a correspondingly coloured star.
002266045 8564_ $$81367504$$s31823$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_2_3_like2D_post.png$$y00003 \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio in the CMSSM, for $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top) and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom), with explicit 68\% and 95\% CL contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanisms active in models within the 95\% CL contour for avoiding thermal overproduction of neutralino dark matter, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g. stau co-annihilation) are not present, as they do not lie within the 95\% CL contour.
002266045 8564_ $$81367505$$s6813$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM1_2_3_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00013 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the planes of the NUHM1 parameters $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top), and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom).  Explicit contour lines for 68\% and 95\% CL are drawn in white and the best fit point is indicated with a star. Right: Colour-coding shows the mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81367506$$s46222$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM1_2_6_like2D_post.png$$y00019 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm1}, but for the $m_{1/2}$--$m_H$ (top) and $m_{0}$--$m_H$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81367507$$s64084$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM2_3_7_like2D_post.png$$y00028 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm2}, but for the $m_{H_u}$--$m_{1/2}$ (top) and $m_{H_d}$--$m_{1/2}$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81367508$$s42902$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_105_218_like2D_wExps.png$$y00060 The present-day neutralino self-annihilation cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM.  \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue).  \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 95\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 6-year \textit{Fermi}-LAT search for DM annihilation in 15 satellite dwarf galaxies \cite{LATdwarfP8}, assuming dark matter annihilation to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states.  We also show the projected improvement for $b\bar{b}$ final states with 15 years of  LAT data and four times as many dwarfs \cite{Charles:2016pgz} (dashed yellow), and an optimistic projection of the sensitivity to $b\bar{b}$ final states of a Galactic halo search for DM annihilation by the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array, assuming 500\,hr of observations and no systematic uncertainties \cite{Carr:2015hta} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81367509$$s4615$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM1_105_217_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00053 The spin-independent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Lower Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the complete LUX exposure~\cite{LUXrun2}, the projected reach of XENON1T with two years of exposure, the projected reach of XENONnT/LZ with 20 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{XENONnTLZ} (around 1--3 years of data), and the projected reach of DARWIN with 200 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{DARWIN} (around 3--4 years of data). The ``neutrino floor'', where the coherent neutrino background starts to limit the experimental sensitivity, is indicated by the dashed grey line \cite{Billard:2013qya}. The exact position of this limit is subject to several caveats; see \cite{Billard:2013qya} for further details.
002266045 8564_ $$81367510$$s3914$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_105_like1D_post.png$$y00036 1D profile likelihoods for the masses of $\tilde{g}$, $\tilde{t}_1$, $\tilde{b}_1$, $\tilde{\tau}_1$, $\tilde{\chi}_1^0$ and $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple).
002266045 8564_ $$81367511$$s35333$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_2_3_posmu_like2D_post.png$$y00007 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ plane of the CMSSM, for $\mu \geq 0$ (top) and $\mu &lt; 0$ (bottom). \textit{Right:} Colour-coding showing the mechanisms for avoiding a relic density of DM that exceeds the observed value.
002266045 8564_ $$81367512$$s3019$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_132_like1D_zoom_post.png$$y00039 \textit{Left:} 1D profile likelihoods for the mass differences $m_{\tilde{t}_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (top) and $m_{\tilde{\chi}^+_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (bottom), in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple). \textit{Right:} as per left-hand plots, but zoomed to focus on the smallest mass differences.
002266045 8564_ $$81367513$$s64339$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM2_2_3_like2D_post.png$$y00022 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihoods in the NUHM2, in terms of the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ and $A_0-\tan\beta$ planes.  \textit{Right:} corresponding mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81367514$$s3725$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_105_106_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00047 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the CMSSM in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay with decoupled sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81367515$$s3954$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_106_like1D_post.png$$y00037 1D profile likelihoods for the masses of $\tilde{g}$, $\tilde{t}_1$, $\tilde{b}_1$, $\tilde{\tau}_1$, $\tilde{\chi}_1^0$ and $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple).
002266045 8564_ $$81367516$$s49592$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_105_201_like2D_post.png$$y00000 Profile likelihoods and confidence regions for the CMSSM, in terms of the mass and thermal relic abundance ($\Omega_\chi h^2$) of the lightest neutralino. \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio, plotted with $1 \sigma$ and $2 \sigma$ contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Mechanisms for ensuring that the relic density of DM does not exceed the measured value, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$-funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g.\ stau co-annihilation) are not shown, as they do not lie within $2 \sigma$ of the best-fit point of the entire sample. $2 \sigma$ contours for each mechanism are plotted using darker lines, and best-fit points are indicated by a correspondingly coloured star.
002266045 8564_ $$81367517$$s3217$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_131_like1D_zoom_post.png$$y00041 \textit{Left:} 1D profile likelihoods for the mass differences $m_{\tilde{t}_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (top) and $m_{\tilde{\chi}^+_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (bottom), in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple). \textit{Right:} as per left-hand plots, but zoomed to focus on the smallest mass differences.
002266045 8564_ $$81367518$$s3146$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_2_3_negmu_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00010 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ plane of the CMSSM, for $\mu \geq 0$ (top) and $\mu &lt; 0$ (bottom). \textit{Right:} Colour-coding showing the mechanisms for avoiding a relic density of DM that exceeds the observed value.
002266045 8564_ $$81367519$$s3248$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_4_1_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00006 \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio in the CMSSM, for $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top) and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom), with explicit 68\% and 95\% CL contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanisms active in models within the 95\% CL contour for avoiding thermal overproduction of neutralino dark matter, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g. stau co-annihilation) are not present, as they do not lie within the 95\% CL contour.
002266045 8564_ $$81367520$$s26917$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM1_105_106_like2D_post.png$$y00048 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the NUHM1 in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay via sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSleptonSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81367521$$s3668$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_108_like1D_post.png$$y00033 1D profile likelihoods for the masses of $\tilde{g}$, $\tilde{t}_1$, $\tilde{b}_1$, $\tilde{\tau}_1$, $\tilde{\chi}_1^0$ and $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple).
002266045 8564_ $$81367522$$s28427$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_105_106_like2D_post.png$$y00046 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the CMSSM in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay with decoupled sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81367523$$s4594$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM2_105_106_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00051 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the NUHM2 in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay via sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSleptonSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81367524$$s5423$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_105_218_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00062 The present-day neutralino self-annihilation cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM.  \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue).  \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 95\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 6-year \textit{Fermi}-LAT search for DM annihilation in 15 satellite dwarf galaxies \cite{LATdwarfP8}, assuming dark matter annihilation to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states.  We also show the projected improvement for $b\bar{b}$ final states with 15 years of  LAT data and four times as many dwarfs \cite{Charles:2016pgz} (dashed yellow), and an optimistic projection of the sensitivity to $b\bar{b}$ final states of a Galactic halo search for DM annihilation by the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array, assuming 500\,hr of observations and no systematic uncertainties \cite{Carr:2015hta} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81367525$$s4005$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_110_like1D_post.png$$y00035 1D profile likelihoods for the masses of $\tilde{g}$, $\tilde{t}_1$, $\tilde{b}_1$, $\tilde{\tau}_1$, $\tilde{\chi}_1^0$ and $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple).
002266045 8564_ $$81367526$$s51626$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM2_3_6_like2D_post.png$$y00026 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm2}, but for the $m_{H_u}$--$m_{1/2}$ (top) and $m_{H_d}$--$m_{1/2}$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81367527$$s4476$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_bf-spectrum-cmssm.png$$y00011 Sparticle mass spectrum of the CMSSM best-fit point.
002266045 8564_ $$81367528$$s5326$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM2_105_220_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00059 The spin-dependent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 79-string IceCube search for DM~\cite{IC79,IC79_SUSY}, assuming dark matter annihilation in the Sun to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states, from PICO-60~\cite{PICO60_2} (green solid), and projected limits from PICO-250 \cite{PICO250} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81367529$$s29687$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_105_108_like2D_post.png$$y00042 2D profile likelihoods for the CMSSM, plotted in the  $\tilde{t}_1-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Left:} the full range of neutralino masses present in the combined sample.  \textit{Right:} as per the lefthand panel, but zoomed in to focus on the low-mass region. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for  $\tilde{t}_1$ pair production, followed by decay to $t$ quarks and the lightest neutralino~\cite{CMSStopSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81367530$$s42089$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM1_3_6_like2D_post.png$$y00017 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm1}, but for the $m_{1/2}$--$m_H$ (top) and $m_{0}$--$m_H$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81367531$$s3772$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_109_like1D_post.png$$y00034 1D profile likelihoods for the masses of $\tilde{g}$, $\tilde{t}_1$, $\tilde{b}_1$, $\tilde{\tau}_1$, $\tilde{\chi}_1^0$ and $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple).
002266045 8564_ $$81367532$$s4133$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM1_105_220_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00057 The spin-dependent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 79-string IceCube search for DM~\cite{IC79,IC79_SUSY}, assuming dark matter annihilation in the Sun to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states, from PICO-60~\cite{PICO60_2} (green solid), and projected limits from PICO-250 \cite{PICO250} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81367533$$s26200$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_105_220_like2D_wExps.png$$y00056 The spin-dependent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 79-string IceCube search for DM~\cite{IC79,IC79_SUSY}, assuming dark matter annihilation in the Sun to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states, from PICO-60~\cite{PICO60_2} (green solid), and projected limits from PICO-250 \cite{PICO250} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81367534$$s3878$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_2_3_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00004 \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio in the CMSSM, for $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top) and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom), with explicit 68\% and 95\% CL contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanisms active in models within the 95\% CL contour for avoiding thermal overproduction of neutralino dark matter, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g. stau co-annihilation) are not present, as they do not lie within the 95\% CL contour.
002266045 8564_ $$81367535$$s3652$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_105_108_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00044 95\% CL 2D profile likelihoods in the $\tilde{t}_1-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane, coloured according to the mechanism(s) active in depleting the relic density.  \textit{Left:} the CMSSM. \textit{Right:} the NUHM1.  Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{t}_1$ pair production and subsequent decay to $t$ quarks and the lightest neutralino~\cite{CMSStopSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81367536$$s35599$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_105_217_like2D_wExps.png$$y00052 The spin-independent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Lower Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the complete LUX exposure~\cite{LUXrun2}, the projected reach of XENON1T with two years of exposure, the projected reach of XENONnT/LZ with 20 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{XENONnTLZ} (around 1--3 years of data), and the projected reach of DARWIN with 200 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{DARWIN} (around 3--4 years of data). The ``neutrino floor'', where the coherent neutrino background starts to limit the experimental sensitivity, is indicated by the dashed grey line \cite{Billard:2013qya}. The exact position of this limit is subject to several caveats; see \cite{Billard:2013qya} for further details.
002266045 8564_ $$81367537$$s5845$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM1_2_6_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00020 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm1}, but for the $m_{1/2}$--$m_H$ (top) and $m_{0}$--$m_H$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81367538$$s7536$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_rdcolours4.png$$y00016 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the planes of the NUHM1 parameters $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top), and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom).  Explicit contour lines for 68\% and 95\% CL are drawn in white and the best fit point is indicated with a star. Right: Colour-coding shows the mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm1}, but for the $m_{1/2}$--$m_H$ (top) and $m_{0}$--$m_H$ (bottom) planes.\textit{Left:} Profile likelihoods in the NUHM2, in terms of the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ and $A_0-\tan\beta$ planes.  \textit{Right:} corresponding mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.95\% CL 2D profile likelihoods in the $\tilde{t}_1-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane, coloured according to the mechanism(s) active in depleting the relic density.  \textit{Left:} the CMSSM. \textit{Right:} the NUHM1.  Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{t}_1$ pair production and subsequent decay to $t$ quarks and the lightest neutralino~\cite{CMSStopSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).\textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the NUHM1 in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay via sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSleptonSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).\textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the NUHM2 in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay via sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSleptonSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).The spin-independent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Lower Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the complete LUX exposure~\cite{LUXrun2}, the projected reach of XENON1T with two years of exposure, the projected reach of XENONnT/LZ with 20 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{XENONnTLZ} (around 1--3 years of data), and the projected reach of DARWIN with 200 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{DARWIN} (around 3--4 years of data). The ``neutrino floor'', where the coherent neutrino background starts to limit the experimental sensitivity, is indicated by the dashed grey line \cite{Billard:2013qya}. The exact position of this limit is subject to several caveats; see \cite{Billard:2013qya} for further details.The spin-dependent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 79-string IceCube search for DM~\cite{IC79,IC79_SUSY}, assuming dark matter annihilation in the Sun to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states, from PICO-60~\cite{PICO60_2} (green solid), and projected limits from PICO-250 \cite{PICO250} (green dashes).The present-day neutralino self-annihilation cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM.  \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue).  \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 95\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 6-year \textit{Fermi}-LAT search for DM annihilation in 15 satellite dwarf galaxies \cite{LATdwarfP8}, assuming dark matter annihilation to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states.  We also show the projected improvement for $b\bar{b}$ final states with 15 years of  LAT data and four times as many dwarfs \cite{Charles:2016pgz} (dashed yellow), and an optimistic projection of the sensitivity to $b\bar{b}$ final states of a Galactic halo search for DM annihilation by the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array, assuming 500\,hr of observations and no systematic uncertainties \cite{Carr:2015hta} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81367539$$s5756$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_rdcolours3.png$$y00002 Profile likelihoods and confidence regions for the CMSSM, in terms of the mass and thermal relic abundance ($\Omega_\chi h^2$) of the lightest neutralino. \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio, plotted with $1 \sigma$ and $2 \sigma$ contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Mechanisms for ensuring that the relic density of DM does not exceed the measured value, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$-funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g.\ stau co-annihilation) are not shown, as they do not lie within $2 \sigma$ of the best-fit point of the entire sample. $2 \sigma$ contours for each mechanism are plotted using darker lines, and best-fit points are indicated by a correspondingly coloured star.\textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio in the CMSSM, for $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top) and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom), with explicit 68\% and 95\% CL contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanisms active in models within the 95\% CL contour for avoiding thermal overproduction of neutralino dark matter, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g. stau co-annihilation) are not present, as they do not lie within the 95\% CL contour.\textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ plane of the CMSSM, for $\mu \geq 0$ (top) and $\mu &lt; 0$ (bottom). \textit{Right:} Colour-coding showing the mechanisms for avoiding a relic density of DM that exceeds the observed value.As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm2}, but for the $m_{H_u}$--$m_{1/2}$ (top) and $m_{H_d}$--$m_{1/2}$ (bottom) planes.\textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the CMSSM in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay with decoupled sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81367540$$s28637$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_2_3_negmu_like2D_post.png$$y00009 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ plane of the CMSSM, for $\mu \geq 0$ (top) and $\mu &lt; 0$ (bottom). \textit{Right:} Colour-coding showing the mechanisms for avoiding a relic density of DM that exceeds the observed value.
002266045 8564_ $$81367541$$s5702$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM1_3_6_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00018 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm1}, but for the $m_{1/2}$--$m_H$ (top) and $m_{0}$--$m_H$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81367542$$s4218$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_105_217_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00054 The spin-independent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Lower Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the complete LUX exposure~\cite{LUXrun2}, the projected reach of XENON1T with two years of exposure, the projected reach of XENONnT/LZ with 20 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{XENONnTLZ} (around 1--3 years of data), and the projected reach of DARWIN with 200 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{DARWIN} (around 3--4 years of data). The ``neutrino floor'', where the coherent neutrino background starts to limit the experimental sensitivity, is indicated by the dashed grey line \cite{Billard:2013qya}. The exact position of this limit is subject to several caveats; see \cite{Billard:2013qya} for further details.
002266045 8564_ $$81367543$$s3652$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_2_3_posmu_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00008 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ plane of the CMSSM, for $\mu \geq 0$ (top) and $\mu &lt; 0$ (bottom). \textit{Right:} Colour-coding showing the mechanisms for avoiding a relic density of DM that exceeds the observed value.
002266045 8564_ $$81367544$$s24802$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_105_108_like2D_zoom_post.png$$y00043 2D profile likelihoods for the CMSSM, plotted in the  $\tilde{t}_1-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Left:} the full range of neutralino masses present in the combined sample.  \textit{Right:} as per the lefthand panel, but zoomed in to focus on the low-mass region. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for  $\tilde{t}_1$ pair production, followed by decay to $t$ quarks and the lightest neutralino~\cite{CMSStopSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81367545$$s7907$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_NUHM2_3_7_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00029 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm2}, but for the $m_{H_u}$--$m_{1/2}$ (top) and $m_{H_d}$--$m_{1/2}$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81367546$$s3471$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_105_220_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00058 The spin-dependent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 79-string IceCube search for DM~\cite{IC79,IC79_SUSY}, assuming dark matter annihilation in the Sun to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states, from PICO-60~\cite{PICO60_2} (green solid), and projected limits from PICO-250 \cite{PICO250} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81367547$$s4252$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_bf-spectrum-nuhm1.png$$y00021 Sparticle mass spectrum of the NUHM1 best-fit point.
002266045 8564_ $$81367548$$s4791$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_bf-spectrum-nuhm2.png$$y00030 Sparticle mass spectrum of the NUHM2 best-fit point.
002266045 8564_ $$81367549$$s42470$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/GUT_SUSY_arXivV2_figures_CMSSM_4_1_like2D_post.png$$y00005 \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio in the CMSSM, for $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top) and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom), with explicit 68\% and 95\% CL contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanisms active in models within the 95\% CL contour for avoiding thermal overproduction of neutralino dark matter, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g. stau co-annihilation) are not present, as they do not lie within the 95\% CL contour.
002266045 8564_ $$81444652$$s18792$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_110_like1D_post.png$$y00035 1D profile likelihoods for the masses of $\tilde{g}$, $\tilde{t}_1$, $\tilde{b}_1$, $\tilde{\tau}_1$, $\tilde{\chi}_1^0$ and $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple).
002266045 8564_ $$81444653$$s48589$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM1_4_1_like2D_post.png$$y00014 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the planes of the NUHM1 parameters $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top), and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom).  Explicit contour lines for 68\% and 95\% CL are drawn in white and the best fit point is indicated with a star. Right: Colour-coding shows the mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81444654$$s17618$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_106_like1D_post.png$$y00037 1D profile likelihoods for the masses of $\tilde{g}$, $\tilde{t}_1$, $\tilde{b}_1$, $\tilde{\tau}_1$, $\tilde{\chi}_1^0$ and $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple).
002266045 8564_ $$81444655$$s64505$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM2_3_7_like2D_post.png$$y00028 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm2}, but for the $m_{H_u}$--$m_{1/2}$ (top) and $m_{H_d}$--$m_{1/2}$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81444656$$s17247$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_122_like1D_post.png$$y00038 \textit{Left:} 1D profile likelihoods for the mass differences $m_{\tilde{t}_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (top) and $m_{\tilde{\chi}^+_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (bottom), in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple). \textit{Right:} as per left-hand plots, but zoomed to focus on the smallest mass differences.
002266045 8564_ $$81444657$$s29729$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM2_105_106_like2D_post.png$$y00050 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the NUHM2 in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay via sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSleptonSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81444658$$s35795$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_105_217_like2D_wExps.png$$y00052 The spin-independent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Lower Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the complete LUX exposure~\cite{LUXrun2}, the projected reach of XENON1T with two years of exposure, the projected reach of XENONnT/LZ with 20 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{XENONnTLZ} (around 1--3 years of data), and the projected reach of DARWIN with 200 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{DARWIN} (around 3--4 years of data). The ``neutrino floor'', where the coherent neutrino background starts to limit the experimental sensitivity, is indicated by the dashed grey line \cite{Billard:2013qya}. The exact position of this limit is subject to several caveats; see \cite{Billard:2013qya} for further details.
002266045 8564_ $$81444659$$s25632$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM2_105_106_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00051 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the NUHM2 in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay via sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSleptonSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81444660$$s14964$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_132_like1D_zoom_post.png$$y00039 \textit{Left:} 1D profile likelihoods for the mass differences $m_{\tilde{t}_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (top) and $m_{\tilde{\chi}^+_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (bottom), in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple). \textit{Right:} as per left-hand plots, but zoomed to focus on the smallest mass differences.
002266045 8564_ $$81444661$$s35954$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_2_3_posmu_like2D_post.png$$y00007 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ plane of the CMSSM, for $\mu \geq 0$ (top) and $\mu < 0$ (bottom). \textit{Right:} Colour-coding showing the mechanisms for avoiding a relic density of DM that exceeds the observed value.
002266045 8564_ $$81444662$$s21473$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM1_105_220_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00057 The spin-dependent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 79-string IceCube search for DM~\cite{IC79,IC79_SUSY}, assuming dark matter annihilation in the Sun to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states, from PICO-60~\cite{PICO60_2} (green solid), and projected limits from PICO-250 \cite{PICO250} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81444663$$s31188$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_105_218_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00062 The present-day neutralino self-annihilation cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM.  \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue).  \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 95\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 6-year \textit{Fermi}-LAT search for DM annihilation in 15 satellite dwarf galaxies \cite{LATdwarfP8}, assuming dark matter annihilation to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states.  We also show the projected improvement for $b\bar{b}$ final states with 15 years of  LAT data and four times as many dwarfs \cite{Charles:2016pgz} (dashed yellow), and an optimistic projection of the sensitivity to $b\bar{b}$ final states of a Galactic halo search for DM annihilation by the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array, assuming 500\,hr of observations and no systematic uncertainties \cite{Carr:2015hta} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81444664$$s19492$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_121_like1D_post.png$$y00040 \textit{Left:} 1D profile likelihoods for the mass differences $m_{\tilde{t}_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (top) and $m_{\tilde{\chi}^+_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (bottom), in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple). \textit{Right:} as per left-hand plots, but zoomed to focus on the smallest mass differences.
002266045 8564_ $$81444665$$s19782$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_105_106_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00047 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the CMSSM in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay with decoupled sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81444666$$s17019$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_207_like1D_post.png$$y00031 1D profile likelihood ratio for $\Delta a_{\mu}$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple). For comparison we show a Gaussian likelihood for the observed discrepancy $a_{\mu,\text{obs}} - a_{\mu,\text{SM}} = (28.7 \pm 8.0)\times10^{-10}$ (green), adding the experimental and theoretical uncertainties in quadrature.
002266045 8564_ $$81444667$$s17344$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_111_like1D_post.png$$y00032 1D profile likelihoods for the masses of $\tilde{g}$, $\tilde{t}_1$, $\tilde{b}_1$, $\tilde{\tau}_1$, $\tilde{\chi}_1^0$ and $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple).
002266045 8564_ $$81444668$$s37816$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM1_105_218_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00061 The present-day neutralino self-annihilation cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM.  \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue).  \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 95\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 6-year \textit{Fermi}-LAT search for DM annihilation in 15 satellite dwarf galaxies \cite{LATdwarfP8}, assuming dark matter annihilation to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states.  We also show the projected improvement for $b\bar{b}$ final states with 15 years of  LAT data and four times as many dwarfs \cite{Charles:2016pgz} (dashed yellow), and an optimistic projection of the sensitivity to $b\bar{b}$ final states of a Galactic halo search for DM annihilation by the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array, assuming 500\,hr of observations and no systematic uncertainties \cite{Carr:2015hta} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81444669$$s43429$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM2_4_1_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00025 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihoods in the NUHM2, in terms of the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ and $A_0-\tan\beta$ planes.  \textit{Right:} corresponding mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81444670$$s32519$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_2_3_like2D_post.png$$y00003 \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio in the CMSSM, for $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top) and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom), with explicit 68\% and 95\% CL contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanisms active in models within the 95\% CL contour for avoiding thermal overproduction of neutralino dark matter, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g. stau co-annihilation) are not present, as they do not lie within the 95\% CL contour.
002266045 8564_ $$81444671$$s27961$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM1_105_108_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00045 95\% CL 2D profile likelihoods in the $\tilde{t}_1-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane, coloured according to the mechanism(s) active in depleting the relic density.  \textit{Left:} the CMSSM. \textit{Right:} the NUHM1.  Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{t}_1$ pair production and subsequent decay to $t$ quarks and the lightest neutralino~\cite{CMSStopSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81444672$$s36735$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM1_2_6_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00020 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm1}, but for the $m_{1/2}$--$m_H$ (top) and $m_{0}$--$m_H$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81444673$$s55674$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM2_3_7_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00029 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm2}, but for the $m_{H_u}$--$m_{1/2}$ (top) and $m_{H_d}$--$m_{1/2}$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81444674$$s46238$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM1_2_3_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00013 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the planes of the NUHM1 parameters $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top), and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom).  Explicit contour lines for 68\% and 95\% CL are drawn in white and the best fit point is indicated with a star. Right: Colour-coding shows the mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81444675$$s27529$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM1_105_106_like2D_post.png$$y00048 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the NUHM1 in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay via sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSleptonSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81444676$$s50978$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM2_2_3_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00023 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihoods in the NUHM2, in terms of the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ and $A_0-\tan\beta$ planes.  \textit{Right:} corresponding mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81444677$$s5897$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/rdcolours3.png$$y00002 Profile likelihoods and confidence regions for the CMSSM, in terms of the mass and thermal relic abundance ($\Omega_\chi h^2$) of the lightest neutralino. \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio, plotted with $1 \sigma$ and $2 \sigma$ contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Mechanisms for ensuring that the relic density of DM does not exceed the measured value, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$-funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g.\ stau co-annihilation) are not shown, as they do not lie within $2 \sigma$ of the best-fit point of the entire sample. $2 \sigma$ contours for each mechanism are plotted using darker lines, and best-fit points are indicated by a correspondingly coloured star.\textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio in the CMSSM, for $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top) and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom), with explicit 68\% and 95\% CL contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanisms active in models within the 95\% CL contour for avoiding thermal overproduction of neutralino dark matter, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g. stau co-annihilation) are not present, as they do not lie within the 95\% CL contour.\textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ plane of the CMSSM, for $\mu \geq 0$ (top) and $\mu < 0$ (bottom). \textit{Right:} Colour-coding showing the mechanisms for avoiding a relic density of DM that exceeds the observed value.As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm2}, but for the $m_{H_u}$--$m_{1/2}$ (top) and $m_{H_d}$--$m_{1/2}$ (bottom) planes.\textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the CMSSM in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay with decoupled sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81444678$$s7744$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/rdcolours4.png$$y00016 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the planes of the NUHM1 parameters $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top), and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom).  Explicit contour lines for 68\% and 95\% CL are drawn in white and the best fit point is indicated with a star. Right: Colour-coding shows the mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm1}, but for the $m_{1/2}$--$m_H$ (top) and $m_{0}$--$m_H$ (bottom) planes.\textit{Left:} Profile likelihoods in the NUHM2, in terms of the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ and $A_0-\tan\beta$ planes.  \textit{Right:} corresponding mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.95\% CL 2D profile likelihoods in the $\tilde{t}_1-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane, coloured according to the mechanism(s) active in depleting the relic density.  \textit{Left:} the CMSSM. \textit{Right:} the NUHM1.  Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{t}_1$ pair production and subsequent decay to $t$ quarks and the lightest neutralino~\cite{CMSStopSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).\textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the NUHM1 in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay via sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSleptonSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).\textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the NUHM2 in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay via sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSleptonSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).The spin-independent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Lower Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the complete LUX exposure~\cite{LUXrun2}, the projected reach of XENON1T with two years of exposure, the projected reach of XENONnT/LZ with 20 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{XENONnTLZ} (around 1--3 years of data), and the projected reach of DARWIN with 200 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{DARWIN} (around 3--4 years of data). The ``neutrino floor'', where the coherent neutrino background starts to limit the experimental sensitivity, is indicated by the dashed grey line \cite{Billard:2013qya}. The exact position of this limit is subject to several caveats; see \cite{Billard:2013qya} for further details.The spin-dependent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 79-string IceCube search for DM~\cite{IC79,IC79_SUSY}, assuming dark matter annihilation in the Sun to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states, from PICO-60~\cite{PICO60_2} (green solid), and projected limits from PICO-250 \cite{PICO250} (green dashes).The present-day neutralino self-annihilation cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM.  \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue).  \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 95\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 6-year \textit{Fermi}-LAT search for DM annihilation in 15 satellite dwarf galaxies \cite{LATdwarfP8}, assuming dark matter annihilation to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states.  We also show the projected improvement for $b\bar{b}$ final states with 15 years of  LAT data and four times as many dwarfs \cite{Charles:2016pgz} (dashed yellow), and an optimistic projection of the sensitivity to $b\bar{b}$ final states of a Galactic halo search for DM annihilation by the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array, assuming 500\,hr of observations and no systematic uncertainties \cite{Carr:2015hta} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81444679$$s25812$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_105_108_like2D_zoom_post.png$$y00043 2D profile likelihoods for the CMSSM, plotted in the  $\tilde{t}_1-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Left:} the full range of neutralino masses present in the combined sample.  \textit{Right:} as per the lefthand panel, but zoomed in to focus on the low-mass region. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for  $\tilde{t}_1$ pair production, followed by decay to $t$ quarks and the lightest neutralino~\cite{CMSStopSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81444680$$s27040$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_105_220_like2D_wExps.png$$y00056 The spin-dependent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 79-string IceCube search for DM~\cite{IC79,IC79_SUSY}, assuming dark matter annihilation in the Sun to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states, from PICO-60~\cite{PICO60_2} (green solid), and projected limits from PICO-250 \cite{PICO250} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81444681$$s60984$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM2_4_1_like2D_post.png$$y00024 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihoods in the NUHM2, in terms of the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ and $A_0-\tan\beta$ planes.  \textit{Right:} corresponding mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81444682$$s28812$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_105_106_like2D_post.png$$y00046 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the CMSSM in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay with decoupled sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81444683$$s16763$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_109_like1D_post.png$$y00034 1D profile likelihoods for the masses of $\tilde{g}$, $\tilde{t}_1$, $\tilde{b}_1$, $\tilde{\tau}_1$, $\tilde{\chi}_1^0$ and $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple).
002266045 8564_ $$81444684$$s29226$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_2_3_negmu_like2D_post.png$$y00009 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ plane of the CMSSM, for $\mu \geq 0$ (top) and $\mu < 0$ (bottom). \textit{Right:} Colour-coding showing the mechanisms for avoiding a relic density of DM that exceeds the observed value.
002266045 8564_ $$81444685$$s64980$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM2_2_3_like2D_post.png$$y00022 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihoods in the NUHM2, in terms of the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ and $A_0-\tan\beta$ planes.  \textit{Right:} corresponding mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81444686$$s21165$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_2_3_posmu_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00008 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ plane of the CMSSM, for $\mu \geq 0$ (top) and $\mu < 0$ (bottom). \textit{Right:} Colour-coding showing the mechanisms for avoiding a relic density of DM that exceeds the observed value.
002266045 8564_ $$81444687$$s37713$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_105_201_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00001 Profile likelihoods and confidence regions for the CMSSM, in terms of the mass and thermal relic abundance ($\Omega_\chi h^2$) of the lightest neutralino. \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio, plotted with $1 \sigma$ and $2 \sigma$ contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Mechanisms for ensuring that the relic density of DM does not exceed the measured value, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$-funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g.\ stau co-annihilation) are not shown, as they do not lie within $2 \sigma$ of the best-fit point of the entire sample. $2 \sigma$ contours for each mechanism are plotted using darker lines, and best-fit points are indicated by a correspondingly coloured star.
002266045 8564_ $$81444688$$s13985$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_131_like1D_zoom_post.png$$y00041 \textit{Left:} 1D profile likelihoods for the mass differences $m_{\tilde{t}_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (top) and $m_{\tilde{\chi}^+_1}-m_{\tilde{\chi}^0_1}$ (bottom), in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple). \textit{Right:} as per left-hand plots, but zoomed to focus on the smallest mass differences.
002266045 8564_ $$81444689$$s55617$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM1_2_3_like2D_post.png$$y00012 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the planes of the NUHM1 parameters $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top), and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom).  Explicit contour lines for 68\% and 95\% CL are drawn in white and the best fit point is indicated with a star. Right: Colour-coding shows the mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81444690$$s18962$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_4_1_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00006 \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio in the CMSSM, for $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top) and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom), with explicit 68\% and 95\% CL contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanisms active in models within the 95\% CL contour for avoiding thermal overproduction of neutralino dark matter, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g. stau co-annihilation) are not present, as they do not lie within the 95\% CL contour.
002266045 8564_ $$81444691$$s52016$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM2_3_6_like2D_post.png$$y00026 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm2}, but for the $m_{H_u}$--$m_{1/2}$ (top) and $m_{H_d}$--$m_{1/2}$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81444692$$s31696$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM2_105_220_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00059 The spin-dependent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 79-string IceCube search for DM~\cite{IC79,IC79_SUSY}, assuming dark matter annihilation in the Sun to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states, from PICO-60~\cite{PICO60_2} (green solid), and projected limits from PICO-250 \cite{PICO250} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81444693$$s31079$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM2_105_217_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00055 The spin-independent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Lower Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the complete LUX exposure~\cite{LUXrun2}, the projected reach of XENON1T with two years of exposure, the projected reach of XENONnT/LZ with 20 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{XENONnTLZ} (around 1--3 years of data), and the projected reach of DARWIN with 200 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{DARWIN} (around 3--4 years of data). The ``neutrino floor'', where the coherent neutrino background starts to limit the experimental sensitivity, is indicated by the dashed grey line \cite{Billard:2013qya}. The exact position of this limit is subject to several caveats; see \cite{Billard:2013qya} for further details.
002266045 8564_ $$81444694$$s46732$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM1_2_6_like2D_post.png$$y00019 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm1}, but for the $m_{1/2}$--$m_H$ (top) and $m_{0}$--$m_H$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81444695$$s43049$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_4_1_like2D_post.png$$y00005 \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio in the CMSSM, for $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top) and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom), with explicit 68\% and 95\% CL contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanisms active in models within the 95\% CL contour for avoiding thermal overproduction of neutralino dark matter, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g. stau co-annihilation) are not present, as they do not lie within the 95\% CL contour.
002266045 8564_ $$81444696$$s57878$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM2_105_218_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00063 The present-day neutralino self-annihilation cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM.  \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue).  \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 95\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 6-year \textit{Fermi}-LAT search for DM annihilation in 15 satellite dwarf galaxies \cite{LATdwarfP8}, assuming dark matter annihilation to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states.  We also show the projected improvement for $b\bar{b}$ final states with 15 years of  LAT data and four times as many dwarfs \cite{Charles:2016pgz} (dashed yellow), and an optimistic projection of the sensitivity to $b\bar{b}$ final states of a Galactic halo search for DM annihilation by the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array, assuming 500\,hr of observations and no systematic uncertainties \cite{Carr:2015hta} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81444697$$s16630$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_108_like1D_post.png$$y00033 1D profile likelihoods for the masses of $\tilde{g}$, $\tilde{t}_1$, $\tilde{b}_1$, $\tilde{\tau}_1$, $\tilde{\chi}_1^0$ and $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple).
002266045 8564_ $$81444698$$s17392$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_NUHM1_NUHM2_105_like1D_post.png$$y00036 1D profile likelihoods for the masses of $\tilde{g}$, $\tilde{t}_1$, $\tilde{b}_1$, $\tilde{\tau}_1$, $\tilde{\chi}_1^0$ and $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm$ in the CMSSM (red), NUHM1 (blue) and NUHM2 (purple).
002266045 8564_ $$81444699$$s4549$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/bf-spectrum-nuhm1.png$$y00021 Sparticle mass spectrum of the NUHM1 best-fit point.
002266045 8564_ $$81444700$$s5042$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/bf-spectrum-nuhm2.png$$y00030 Sparticle mass spectrum of the NUHM2 best-fit point.
002266045 8564_ $$81444701$$s34740$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM1_3_6_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00018 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm1}, but for the $m_{1/2}$--$m_H$ (top) and $m_{0}$--$m_H$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81444702$$s20081$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_105_108_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00044 95\% CL 2D profile likelihoods in the $\tilde{t}_1-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane, coloured according to the mechanism(s) active in depleting the relic density.  \textit{Left:} the CMSSM. \textit{Right:} the NUHM1.  Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{t}_1$ pair production and subsequent decay to $t$ quarks and the lightest neutralino~\cite{CMSStopSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81444703$$s4779$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/bf-spectrum-cmssm.png$$y00011 Sparticle mass spectrum of the CMSSM best-fit point.
002266045 8564_ $$81444704$$s23334$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_105_217_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00054 The spin-independent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Lower Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the complete LUX exposure~\cite{LUXrun2}, the projected reach of XENON1T with two years of exposure, the projected reach of XENONnT/LZ with 20 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{XENONnTLZ} (around 1--3 years of data), and the projected reach of DARWIN with 200 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{DARWIN} (around 3--4 years of data). The ``neutrino floor'', where the coherent neutrino background starts to limit the experimental sensitivity, is indicated by the dashed grey line \cite{Billard:2013qya}. The exact position of this limit is subject to several caveats; see \cite{Billard:2013qya} for further details.
002266045 8564_ $$81444705$$s22568$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM1_105_106_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00049 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood for the NUHM1 in the  $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanism(s) that allow models within the 95\% CL region to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for $\tilde{\chi}_1^\pm \tilde{\chi}_1^0$ pair production and decay via sleptons~\cite{CMSEWSleptonSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81444706$$s36395$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM1_4_1_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00015 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the planes of the NUHM1 parameters $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top), and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom).  Explicit contour lines for 68\% and 95\% CL are drawn in white and the best fit point is indicated with a star. Right: Colour-coding shows the mechanisms to avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM.
002266045 8564_ $$81444707$$s18251$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_105_220_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00058 The spin-dependent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 79-string IceCube search for DM~\cite{IC79,IC79_SUSY}, assuming dark matter annihilation in the Sun to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states, from PICO-60~\cite{PICO60_2} (green solid), and projected limits from PICO-250 \cite{PICO250} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81444708$$s24665$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM1_105_217_ColourMechanism_post_wExps.png$$y00053 The spin-independent neutralino-proton cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM. \textit{Lower Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue). \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 90\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the complete LUX exposure~\cite{LUXrun2}, the projected reach of XENON1T with two years of exposure, the projected reach of XENONnT/LZ with 20 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{XENONnTLZ} (around 1--3 years of data), and the projected reach of DARWIN with 200 tonne-years of exposure~\cite{DARWIN} (around 3--4 years of data). The ``neutrino floor'', where the coherent neutrino background starts to limit the experimental sensitivity, is indicated by the dashed grey line \cite{Billard:2013qya}. The exact position of this limit is subject to several caveats; see \cite{Billard:2013qya} for further details.
002266045 8564_ $$81444709$$s42878$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM1_3_6_like2D_post.png$$y00017 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm1}, but for the $m_{1/2}$--$m_H$ (top) and $m_{0}$--$m_H$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81444710$$s44148$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_105_218_like2D_wExps.png$$y00060 The present-day neutralino self-annihilation cross-section. \textit{Upper Left:} Profile likelihood in the CMSSM.  \textit{Bottom Left:} Colour-coding shows the active mechanism(s) by which CMSSM models avoid exceeding the observed relic density of DM, through either chargino co-annihilation, the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. \textit{Top Right:} Colour-coded regions in the NUHM1, now also featuring stau co-annihilation (blue).  \textit{Bottom Right:} Colour-coded regions of the NUHM2. 95\% CL exclusion limits are overlaid from the 6-year \textit{Fermi}-LAT search for DM annihilation in 15 satellite dwarf galaxies \cite{LATdwarfP8}, assuming dark matter annihilation to $\bar b b$ (yellow solid) and $\tau^+\tau^-$ (red solid) final states.  We also show the projected improvement for $b\bar{b}$ final states with 15 years of  LAT data and four times as many dwarfs \cite{Charles:2016pgz} (dashed yellow), and an optimistic projection of the sensitivity to $b\bar{b}$ final states of a Galactic halo search for DM annihilation by the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array, assuming 500\,hr of observations and no systematic uncertainties \cite{Carr:2015hta} (green dashes).
002266045 8564_ $$81444711$$s22625$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_2_3_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00004 \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio in the CMSSM, for $m_0$ and $m_{1/2}$ (top) and $\tan\beta$ and $A_{0}$ (bottom), with explicit 68\% and 95\% CL contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Colour-coding shows the mechanisms active in models within the 95\% CL contour for avoiding thermal overproduction of neutralino dark matter, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$ funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g. stau co-annihilation) are not present, as they do not lie within the 95\% CL contour.
002266045 8564_ $$81444712$$s50372$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_105_201_like2D_post.png$$y00000 Profile likelihoods and confidence regions for the CMSSM, in terms of the mass and thermal relic abundance ($\Omega_\chi h^2$) of the lightest neutralino. \textit{Left:} The profile likelihood ratio, plotted with $1 \sigma$ and $2 \sigma$ contour lines drawn in white, and the best fit point indicated by a star. \textit{Right:} Mechanisms for ensuring that the relic density of DM does not exceed the measured value, through either chargino co-annihilation, resonant annihilation via the $A/H$-funnel, or stop co-annihilation. Other potential mechanisms (e.g.\ stau co-annihilation) are not shown, as they do not lie within $2 \sigma$ of the best-fit point of the entire sample. $2 \sigma$ contours for each mechanism are plotted using darker lines, and best-fit points are indicated by a correspondingly coloured star.
002266045 8564_ $$81444713$$s16665$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_2_3_negmu_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00010 \textit{Left:} Profile likelihood ratio in the $m_0-m_{1/2}$ plane of the CMSSM, for $\mu \geq 0$ (top) and $\mu < 0$ (bottom). \textit{Right:} Colour-coding showing the mechanisms for avoiding a relic density of DM that exceeds the observed value.
002266045 8564_ $$81444714$$s41297$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/NUHM2_3_6_ColourMechanism_post.png$$y00027 As per Fig.\ \ref{fig:2d_parameter_plots_nuhm2}, but for the $m_{H_u}$--$m_{1/2}$ (top) and $m_{H_d}$--$m_{1/2}$ (bottom) planes.
002266045 8564_ $$81444715$$s30245$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/CMSSM_105_108_like2D_post.png$$y00042 2D profile likelihoods for the CMSSM, plotted in the  $\tilde{t}_1-\tilde{\chi}^0_1$ mass plane. \textit{Left:} the full range of neutralino masses present in the combined sample.  \textit{Right:} as per the lefthand panel, but zoomed in to focus on the low-mass region. Superimposed in red is the latest CMS Run II simplified model limit for  $\tilde{t}_1$ pair production, followed by decay to $t$ quarks and the lightest neutralino~\cite{CMSStopSummary}. This limit should be interpreted with caution (for details see main text).
002266045 8564_ $$81445376$$s21481161$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/10.1140_epjc_s10052-017-5167-0.pdf$$yFulltext
002266045 8564_ $$82241982$$s17705953$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/1705.07935.pdf$$yFulltext
002266045 8564_ $$81372757$$s21481161$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/scoap3-fulltext.pdf?subformat=pdfa$$xpdfa$$yArticle from SCOAP3
002266045 8564_ $$82334356$$s21481161$$uhttp://cds.cern.ch/record/2266045/files/scoap.pdf$$yArticle from SCOAP3
002266045 960__ $$a13
002266045 980__ $$aARTICLE
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